Transcript State of the North Carolina Workforce

State of the North Carolina Workforce
Shaping Economic &
Workforce Development:
Facts as the Foundation
North Carolina Commission on
Workforce Development
 38 Member Board Appointed by Governor




Provides Strategic Direction to NC Workforce
Development System
Allocates $80 Million in WIA Funds for the NC
Workforce Delivery System
Operating Guidelines and Standards for 24 Local
Workforce Development Boards and NC Job-Link
System
Staff of 7 in the Department of Commerce
Policy Advice Regarding Workforce Issues
What was the intent of the study?
 Project state and selected sub-regional
labor market demand and supply during
the next decade
 Identify key issues likely to arise IF
current trends continue and no major
economic shifts occur
 Provide facts to help guide future policy
 Shape public discourse
The Results
Key “Trends”
1.
2.
3.
4.
Traditional manufacturing industries continue
to shed jobs as part of an on-going economic
transition.
Many areas of North Carolina are not
prospering from the economic
transformation.
New job creation is concentrating in certain
fast-growing metropolitan areas.
Traditional “middle jobs”—those that paid a
family-sustaining wage and required minimal
formal education or training— are
disappearing as part of this transition.
Key “Trends”
5.
6.
7.
8.
Future prosperity depends on achieving
higher educational attainment levels for all
citizens.
Low-skill in-migrants present both
opportunities and challenges in
meeting the state’s workforce needs.
Impending baby-boom retirements will
exacerbate an emerging skills gap among
experienced, skilled workers.
High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but
not all, of the skills gap.
Selected Data
Facts and Figures
The state’s traditional manufacturing industries will
likely shed more workers
NC Industry
Tobacco Processing
Textiles
Apparel
Furniture and Wood Products
Select Traditional Industries
2007
8,189
74,617
26,152
99,121
208,079
2017
5,218
47,670
10,661
107,520
171,070
Emp. Change
2007-17
% Change
-2,970
-36%
-26,947
-36%
-15,491
-59%
8,399
8%
-37,010
-18%
Source: Regional Dynamics
These 4 industries currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs
Disadvantaged regions are growing slower
Force
and Employment Growth,
thanLabor
the rest
ofGrowth
the State
2000 to 2005
Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005
North Carolina
7%
6.4%
Metro
Micro
6%
Rural
5.1%
4.7%
2000 to 2005 Growth
5%
4%
3.4%
2.9%
3%
2%
1.8%
1.5%
1%
0%
-0.1%
-1%
Labor Force Growth 2000 to 2005
Employment Growth 2000 to 2005
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Metropolitan and
Micropolitan Areas
in North Carolina
2005 Population Estimates
Metro Area:
6.2 million
Micro Area:
2.0 million
Rural Area:
0.6 million
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
*Asheville, NC
*Burlington, NC
*Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
*Durham, NC
*Fayetteville, NC
*Goldsboro, NC
*Greensboro-High Point, NC
*Greenville, NC
*Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
*Jacksonville, NC
*Raleigh-Cary, NC
*Rocky Mount, NC
*Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
*Wilmington, NC
*Winston-Salem, NC
*Source: US Census Bureau
Micropolitan Statistical Areas
*Albemarle, NC
*Boone, NC
*Brevard, NC
*Dunn, NC
*Elizabeth City, NC
*Forest City, NC
*Henderson, NC
*Kill Devil Hills, NC
*Kinston, NC
*Laurinburg, NC
*Lincolnton, NC
*Lumberton, NC
*Morehead City, NC
*Mount Airy, NC
*New Bern, NC
*North Wilkesboro, NC
*Roanoke Rapids, NC
*Rockingham, NC
*Salisbury, NC
*Sanford, NC
*Shelby, NC
*Southern Pines-Pinehurst, NC
*Statesville-Mooresville, NC
*Thomasville-Lexington, NC
*Washington, NC
*Wilson, NC
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Metropolitan Area
Micropolitan Area
Rural Area
Expected Employment Growth by Education
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Advanced Degree
4-year College
Degree
Tech-Some Post
HS/GED Some
Experience
HS/GED Entry
Below GED
Educational Attainment in the US
Compared to North Carolina (est. 2007)
35%
Percent of Population 25 and above
30%
US
NC
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Advanced Degree
4 Year Degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, AGS Demographics
Associate degree Some college, no
degree
High school
graduate/GED
Less Than HS
Diploma
Actual Employment Growth by Education
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Advanced Degree
4-year College Degree
Tech-Some Post
HS/GED Some
Experience
HS/GED Entry
Below GED
NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by
Required Education
(Est. 2007 and 2017)
North Carolina
Educational Band
Advanced Degree
4-year College Degree
Tech-Some Post
GED Some Experience
GED/Entry
Below GED
Total
Source: Regional Dynamics
Emp 2007
160,572
687,536
386,614
801,703
1,263,563
1,732,747
5,032,734
Net New Jobs
(07-17)
36,560
134,808
89,452
58,980
88,085
276,598
684,484
Average Earnings % Total Emp % New Jobs
2007
(2007)
(07-17)
$83,785
3.2%
5.3%
$77,005
13.7%
19.7%
$46,774
7.7%
13.1%
$42,952
15.9%
8.6%
$34,123
25.1%
12.9%
$24,405
34.4%
40.4%
$40,598
100.0%
100.0%
Fewer job opportunities exist for people
without post-secondary education
50%
Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017
Percent of Total New Employment (2007-17)
45%
USA
NC Net New Jobs Total = 700k
40%
NC
35%
‘New Middle’
Jobs
‘Disappearing’
Traditional Middle Jobs
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Advanced
Degree
4-year College Tech-Some Post
Degree
GED Some
Experience
Education Band
GED/Entry
Below GED
Projected Population Growth, 2007 to 2017
20%
17.5%
18%
16%
14.5%
Projected Growth
14%
12%
10.2%
10%
8%
7.8%
7.3%
6%
7.0%
4.4%
3.9%
4%
2.3%
2%
0%
U.S.
North
Carolina
Advantage
West
Charlotte
Eastern
Region
Northeast
Source: AGS Demographics
Piedmont
Triad
Research
Triangle
Southeast
In-migration creates future workforce
challenges & opportunities
Hispanic Population
Density, 1990
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
In-migration creates future workforce
challenges & opportunities
Hispanic Population
Density, 2000
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
Fewer job opportunities exist for people
without post-secondary education
50%
Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017
Percent of Total New Employment (2007-17)
45%
USA
NC Net New Jobs Total = 700k
40%
NC
35%
‘New Middle’
Jobs
‘Disappearing’
Traditional Middle Jobs
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Advanced
Degree
4-year College Tech-Some Post
Degree
GED Some
Experience
Education Band
GED/Entry
Below GED
North Carolina Has A Talent Shortage
Changes in Workforce Demands
To Replace Retiring Work ers
To Fill Projected Net New Jobs
Total Change in Workforce Demand
Changes in Workforce Supply
New Young NC Talent
In-Migrants, aged 18-54 (assuming all join labor mark et)
Total Change in Workforce Supply
Annual Talent Shortage*
*Annual estimate calculated from data provided by the US Census
Bureau, UNC/NCCCS and Regional Dynamics annual employment
projections 2007 to 2017 Regional Dynamics
Annual Number
60,795
69,825
130,620
91,253
26,760
118,013
-12,607
Applied Efforts
 Matching the skills of dislocated
workers to expanding companies:
–
–
–
–
Collins & Aikmen  AWNC +
Konica Minolta  Zink Imaging
Ethan Allen, HDM, Taylor Togs Altec
Flextronics  Kellogg
Next Steps
 Launch a “Valuing Education Campaign”
across North Carolina
 Facilitate greater coordination of the
workforce development, education, economic
development and training systems for workers
at all levels
 Develop and widely publish a businessfriendly publication, aimed at all North
Carolina employers (public and private) both
detailing the changing workforce and offering
advice for dealing with those changes
Questions and Discussion
State of the North
Carolina Workforce