Transcript Slide 1

State of the North Carolina Workforce
An Assessment of the
State’s Labor Force
Demand and Supply
2007 – 2017
Today
 Background for the report
 Share data from the report
 Gain your input on policy focus areas and
implications
–
How should our state respond to the findings in
terms of future policy development and state-level
action?
Study Process
 Led by the Commission’s Policy Research and
Assessment Committee (PRAC)
 Commissioned quantitative research of the
state’s workforce and economic conditions
–
–
Corporation for a Skilled Workforce
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
 Utilized multiple data sources
 Validated data across multiple stakeholders prior
to writing report
The Intent of the Study
 Analyze labor market demand and
supply trends and forecasts 2007-2017
 Determine the appropriate geographic
units for study
 Assess education and workforce system
gaps in meeting labor market demand
 Identify most critical policy challenges
and opportunities
Study Outcomes
 2007-17 labor market demand and
supply projections for NC and subregions
 Key issues likely to arise IF current
trends continue and no major economic
shifts occur
 Provides facts to help guide policy
choices
The Project Authors
John P. Metcalf - Sr. Partner Community Strategic Planning
CSW is a national private non-profit consulting firm based in Ann
Arbor, Michigan, founded in 1991 (www.skilledwork.org)
Mission: Re-imagine everything about work and learning in the
global economy to have a competitive workforce advantage.
Dr. Kenneth Poole – President, Center for Regional
Economic Competitiveness
CREC is a national non-profit affiliated with George Mason
University and ACCRA—the Council for Community &
Economic Research based in Arlington, Virginia, established in
2000 (www.creconline.org)
Mission: Promote knowledge-based regional economic
development
efforts
Key Trends Found In The Report
8 Key Trends
Key Trends
1.
2.
3.
4.
Traditional manufacturing continues to shed
jobs as part of an on-going economic transition
Traditional “middle jobs” — those that paid a
family-sustaining wage and required minimal
formal education or training — are disappearing
as part of this transition
New job creation is concentrating in certain
fast-growing metropolitan areas
Many areas of North Carolina are not
prospering from the economic transformation
Key Trends
5.
6.
7.
8.
Future prosperity depends on achieving higher
educational attainment levels for all citizens
Impending baby-boom retirements will
exacerbate an emerging skills gap among
experienced, skilled workers
High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but not
all, of this skills gap
Low-skill in-migrants present both
opportunities and challenges in meeting the
state’s workforce needs
The Data
Facts and Figures That
Support The Trends
North Carolina’s Primary Regions
2005 Population Estimates
Piedmont:
5.3 million
Coast:
2.4 million
Mountains:
1.1 million
*Source: Estimate based on 2000
Census and 2004 data from AGS
Demographics
95
4
5
77
85
40
9
6
7
1
2
40
26
85
11
3
8
12
40
95
10
1
2
3
4
5
6
Asheville
Hickory
Charlotte
Winston-Salem
Greensboro
Durham
7
8
9
10
11
12
Raleigh
Fayetteville
Rocky Mount
Wilmington
Greenville
New Bern
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
0
70
Miles
Mountain region
Piedmont region
Coastal region
Industry Employment in North Carolina
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas (est. 2007)
The Golden Crescent Provides The State’s Economic Engine
GreensboroHigh Point, NC
Winston-Salem, NC
Durham, NC
Rocky Mount, NC
Burlington, NC
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Virginia Beach-NorfolkNewport News, VA-NC
Hickory-MorgantonLenoir, NC
Greenville, NC
Asheville, NC
Jacksonville, NC
Charlotte-GastoniaConcord, NC-SC
600K
Wilmington, NC
Fayetteville, NC
Goldsboro, NC
200K
Metropolitan Area
50K
Industry Employment
Source: Regional Dynamics
*Employment for North Carolina counties only
**Only metropolitan areas identified
Micropolitan Area
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Projected Population Growth, 2007 to 2017
20%
17.5%
18%
16%
14.5%
Projected Growth
14%
12%
10.2%
10%
8%
7.8%
7.3%
6%
7.0%
4.4%
3.9%
4%
2.3%
2%
0%
U.S.
North
Carolina
Advantage
West
Charlotte
Eastern
Region
Northeast
Source: AGS Demographics
Piedmont
Triad
Research
Triangle
Southeast
The State’s Traditional Manufacturing Industries
Will Likely Shed More Workers
NC Industry
Tobacco Processing
Textiles
Apparel
Furniture and Wood Products
Select Traditional Industries
2007
8,189
74,617
26,152
99,121
208,079
2017
5,218
47,670
10,661
107,520
171,070
Emp. Change
2007-17
% Change
-2,970
-36%
-26,947
-36%
-15,491
-59%
8,399
8%
-37,010
-18%
Source: Regional Dynamics
These 4 industries currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs
NC’s Industry Employment Trends
Natural Resources and Minerals
2007
Construction
2017
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Projected Employment*
Information
2007 = 5,152,000
FIRE
2017 = 5,851,000
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
0%
2%
*Includes Pvt, Farm, Govt & Proprietors
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Percent of Total Industry Employment
16%
18%
Disadvantaged Regions Are Growing Slower
Than The Rest Of The State
Labor Force Growth and Employment Growth,
2000 to 2005
Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005
North Carolina
7%
6.4%
Metro
Micro
6%
Rural
5.1%
4.7%
2000 to 2005 Growth
5%
4%
3.4%
2.9%
3%
2%
1.8%
1.5%
1%
0%
-0.1%
-1%
Labor Force Growth 2000 to 2005
Employment Growth 2000 to 2005
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
State Earnings Trail The Nation
Even In Prosperous Areas
Region
United States
North Carolina
Total Est.
Est. Net New
Average Earnings
Employment 2007
Employment 2007-17
2007
179,670,548
30,284,512
$44,815
5,152,411
698,247
$39,953
METRO Area Counties
MICRO Area Counties
RURAL Area Counties
3,840,922
969,766
341,723
573,283
91,029
33,934
$42,784
$32,836
$27,944
NC Mountains
NC Piedmont
NC Coast
570,821
3,290,455
1,291,135
70,917
474,831
152,498
$31,561
$43,075
$35,706
Source: Regional Dynamics
“Success Favors The Prepared Mind” NTHS
NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required
Education (Est. 2007 and 2017)
North Carolina
Educational Band
Advanced Degree
4-year College Degree
Tech-Some Post
GED Some Experience
GED/Entry
Below GED
Total
Source: Regional Dynamics
Emp 2007
160,572
687,536
386,614
801,703
1,263,563
1,732,747
5,032,734
Net New Jobs
(07-17)
36,560
134,808
89,452
58,980
88,085
276,598
684,484
Average Earnings % Total Emp % New Jobs
2007
(2007)
(07-17)
$83,785
3.2%
5.3%
$77,005
13.7%
19.7%
$46,774
7.7%
13.1%
$42,952
15.9%
8.6%
$34,123
25.1%
12.9%
$24,405
34.4%
40.4%
$40,598
100.0%
100.0%
Educational Attainment In the US and North Carolina (est. 2007)
Total Population
35%
Percent of Population 25 and above
30%
US
NC
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Advanced Degree
4 Year Degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, AGS Demographics
Associate degree Some college, no
degree
High school
graduate/GED
Less Than HS
Diploma
50%
A Divide In the Economy and the Labor Force
Percent of Total New Employment (2007-17)
45%
USA
Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017
40%
NC
35%
‘New Middle’
Jobs
30%
‘Disappearing’
Traditional Middle Jobs
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Advanced
Degree
4-year College Tech-Some Post
Degree
NC Net New Jobs Total = 690K
GED Some
Experience
Education Band
GED/Entry
Below GED
In-migration Creates Future Workforce
Challenges & Opportunities
10,091
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill
2,194
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
558
Asheville
Goldsboro
71
Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir
45
-143
Rocky Mount
Wilmington
-393
Fayetteville
-462
Greensboro-Winston-SalemHigh Point
Greenville
-946
Source: US Census Bureau
-1,157
-3,000
-1,500
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500 12,000
Net Number of Young, Single, College Educated In-migrants (1995-2000)
In-migration Creates Future Workforce
Challenges & Opportunities
Hispanic Population
Density, 1990
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
In-migration Creates Future Workforce
Challenges & Opportunities
Hispanic Population
Density, 2000
Hispanic Population
1 Dot = 20
North Carolina Has A Talent Shortage
Changes in Workforce Demands
To Replace Retiring Work ers
To Fill Projected Net New Jobs
Total Change in Workforce Demand
Changes in Workforce Supply
New Young NC Talent
In-Migrants, aged 18-54 (assuming all join labor mark et)
Total Change in Workforce Supply
Annual Talent Shortage*
Annual Number
60,795
69,825
130,620
91,253
26,760
118,013
-12,607
*Annual estimate calculated from data provided by the US Census Bureau,
UNC/NCCCS and Regional Dynamics annual employment projections 2007 to
2017 Regional Dynamics
Questions and Discussion
State of the North
Carolina Workforce
Input
As you listened to the report’s trends, reviewed the
policy focus areas and related policy implications and
questions:
–
–
–
–
What is your reaction to the policy implications and questions
of the six focus areas?
Within each focus area, are there specific policy issues you
think we should address or emphasize?
Have we missed anything you consider a significant policy
issue?
Your thoughts and opinions!!!
Next Steps
 PRAC forms four (4) policy workgroups to develop
policy recommendations for the Commission’s and
Governor’s consideration based on report and forum
feedback
– Coordination of the policy workgroups
 Gain stakeholder input
 Refine policy questions
 Develop potential policy solutions
 Delivery recommendations to the Commission
by July
Next Steps
The Policy Workgroups’ Focus

Valuing Education and Life-long learning
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Changing Industry
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
Middle Jobs Loss (grow sectors and sector strategies)
Geographic Disparities
–
–

improving educational attainment
Vast Despair of the Coastal and Mountain Regions Compared to the
Piedmont (overcoming the two North Carolinas)
Rural, small town, and urban
Changing Workforce Demographics
–
baby boomer retirements and in-migration of low-skilled workers)
PowerPoint on www.nccommerce.com
Later Questions and Comments


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
Paul Combs
– Chair of the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee
– [email protected]
Heidi Stieber
– Staff for the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee
– [email protected]
– 919.715.6658
John Metcalf
– Corporation for a Skilled Workforce (CSW)
– [email protected]
– 704-814-8999
Ken Poole
– Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness (CREC)
– [email protected]
– 703-522-4980, ext. 16
Thank You