Transcript Land Use Futures: Governance, Innovation

Land Use Futures:
Governance, Innovation &
Territory
John Goddard
Newcastle University
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• The changing role of the state in influencing what use is
made of land where
• The changing balance between private and public
interest and between individual & collective action
• The changing distributional (welfare) benefits of access
to land resources
• The constraining influence of sunk investment
(infrastructure) and the power of historic vested interests
• The need for a narrative linking past ,present & future
Figure Scenario structure
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• The changing organisation of production, distribution and
consumption arising from innovation
• The emergence of total innovation (“more than products
resulting from scientific and technological research also
new services, business models and organisational forms
that occur in all sectors of the economy”) (NESTA)
• Transformational innovations that fundamentally change
business and social life (e.g. the internet)
• The influence of these innovations on what economic
activities are located where and where people live
• Innovations mediated through existing structures
(organisations, people and places)
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• Interaction of innovation and governance with
the real geography of the UK
• The changing geography of the national
settlement system
• National, regional and city scale views of land
use systems and sub-systems
• The London city region, other city regions and
the North/South divide
• The pace of change in the settlement system
from Mike Coombes (forthcoming 2009)
“English rural housing market policy: some
inconvenient truths?”
Planning Practice and Research
1950
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Figure 1: Overall Framework of Work to develop the SIRS
ECONOMETRIC
MODELLING
EVIDENCE
REVIEW
(Part of the PERS)
POLICY REVIEW (Part
of the PERS)
SUB-REGIONAL
ASSESSMENTS
REGIONAL ‘FUTURES’ – SCENARIOS DESCRIBING ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL
DEVELOPMENT PATHS (PATHWAYS)
NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK – INTEGRATED REGIONAL FRAMEWORK (IRF)
Values and aspirations
Trends and policy drivers
Scenarios
Consultations
Sensitivity analyses / Probability assessments
REGIONAL CHALLENGES -– OPTIONS APPRAISAL
(A ‘Regional Conversation’?)
IRF as the basis of assessment criteria (as related to the 4 capitals model)
Key Drivers AND Objectives
Key Trade-offs
Key Win-wins
PREFERRED PATHWAY / OPTION
STRATEGIC DIRECTION (Building on Preferred Option)
Key Objectives
Key Outcomes
SINGLE INTEGRATED REGIONAL STRATEGY