Transcript Food Security Analysis Unit -Somalia

Food Security and Nutrition
Analysis Unit Somalia
Deyr 2010/11
Information for Better Livelihoods
January 26, 2011
Northwest
Swiss Agency for
Development and
Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Post Deyr 2010/11
Seasonal Assessment
Coverage
Field Access and Field
Data Locations
Normal access to all
livelihoods of the
Northwest regions for
Deyr 2010/11
Assessment
Main Livelihood Groups
Sources of Food and Income
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and
Income
• 4 Pastoral Livelihoods (Hawd, Sool Plateau,
Nugaal Valley, and Golis/Guban
Pastoralists)
 Primary sources of income of poor: sale of
livestock & livestock products
 Primary sources of food of poor: purchase
and own production
 Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel,
sheep/goat
•
2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Togdheer and Northwest Agropastoral)
 Togdheer AgroPastoral are more pastoral, however there is an increasing
dependency on crop and fodder production. Main sources of income: sale
of livestock & livestock products, self-employment and fodder sales. Main
source of food: Own crop and food purchase
 Northwest Agropastoral are more agriculturists than pastoralists. Main
sources of income: sale of crops, livestock products and labour;
Main sources of food: own crop production and purchase.
Climate
Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall
• Start of Season: Started early - in 2nd dekad of Sep ’10 - in most parts of
the Northwest zone
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Duration and distribution of the rainfall
was poor in Nugaal valley, Sool Plateau and Hawd (Togdheer and Sool).
A long dry spell in Nov-Dec ‘10 in the regions of Sool, Sanaag and
Togdheer
• Normal to above normal rains: Hawd of Hargeisa, West-Golis/Guban, and
Agropastoral (100-125 mm of cumulative rainfall)
• Below normal rains: Sool Plateau, Nugal valley and Hawd of Togdheer
(10-25mm of cumulative Oct-Dec ’10)
Climate
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Hudun Savannah Standardized
difference from LTA
RFE
CNDVI
70% range
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
Z-scores
Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Season
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Years
3.0
Lasqoray Pastoral Standardized
difference from LTA
RFE
CNDVI
Z-scores
70% range
2.0
1.0
0.0
-2.0
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
gu
deyr
-1.0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Years
July NDVI difference from long term average
Civil Insecurity
Civil Security Situation:
 Overall the security situation in the Northwest
remains stable.
 Resource conflict in grazing land in Kalshaale
area of Buhoodle district, resulted in human
death(9) and injuries(2). However, efforts from
both elders and house of parliament, promoted
peace in the area. The recent declaration of the
President had further strengthened the peace
resolution in the area.
The conflict over the disputed agricultural land of
El-bardaale in Gebiley district was agreed to be
resolved through dialogue from clans with the
government assistance.
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security &
Nutrition:
 Limited movement of transport to Buhodle area.
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Agriculture
Deyr 2010/11 Local
Cereal Flow
Agriculture
Northwest Cereal Production
Agriculture
Trends in Gu/Karan 2010 Crop Harvest Estimates
Cereal Establishment Estimates per District/ Region
Gu/Karan 2010
Gebiley
36%
Regional Distribution
of Gu/Karan 2010
Crop Estimates (Harvested)
Togdheer
7%
Hargeisa
22%
Awdal
35%
Long Term Trends in Gu-Karan Crop Production (1998-2010)
80,000
70,000
Maize
60,000
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
MT
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Burao
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(Sorghum)
Regional Trends in
Terms of Trade:
Cereal to Labor
(kg of sorghum
/daily wage)
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade - Northwest
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(White Sorghum)
Regional Trends in Terms of
Trade: Cereal to Labor
(Kg of White Sorghum/
Daily Wage)
Livestock
Rangeland Conditions and
Livestock Migration
•
Good performance of Deyr ’10/11 season
in Awdal, W. Galbeed and Golis LZ of
Togdheer resulted in normal pasture and
water.
•
Below normal Deyr rains in most of
Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions with
negative impact on both pasture/ browse
and water conditions.
•
Average
to
poor
livestock
body
conditions, however below average milk
production due to low camel calving and
limited pasture and water availability.
•
Abnormal livestock migration in Eastern
Part of NW regions.
Livestock
Livestock Body Conditions & Trends in Production
Region
NW
Conception
(Deyr ’10/11)
Hawd
Camel: Low to
None
Sheep/goats:
Low to Medium
Nugaal valley:
Camel: Low to
None
Sheep/goats:
Low to Medium
Sool plateau
Camel: None
Sheep/goats:
Low to Medium
Golis/Guban:
Camel: Medium
Sheep/goats:
Medium to High
Calving/kidding
(Deyr ’10/11)
Hawd
Camel: Medium in
Sool region but Low
to none in togdheer
and W. Galbeed
Sheep/goats: Low
to Medium
Nugaal Valley
Camel: Medium in
Sool and Low to
none in Togdheer
and Sanaag
Sheep/goat: High to
Medium
Sool Plateau
Camel: None
Sheep/goats: High
to Medium
Golis/Guban
Camel: Low to None
Sheep/goats:
Medium to High
Milk production
(Deyr ’10/11)
All Species:
Below
Average
Expected calving/
kidding
Jan – Jun ‘11
Hawd:
Camel: Medium
Sh/goats:
Low to Medium
Below
Average
Nugaal valley:
Camel: Medium
Sh/goats: Low to
Medium
Below
Average
Sool plateau:
Camel: Low
Sheep/Goats:
Low to Medium
Below
Average
Golis/Guban:
Camel: Medium
Sh/Goat:
Medium to High
Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11)
Livelihoods
Livestock species
Hawd
Camel : Above Baseline. Increased by
5% between Jun – Dec ‘10 and is
expected to increase by 15% till Jun. ‘11
Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased
by 14% between Jun – Dec ‘10, but
expected to be same till Jun. ‘11
Nugaal
Valley
Sheep/Goats: Same as Baseline.
Increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ’10
but expected to Decline by 43% till Jun
‘11
Sool Plateau
Sheep/Goat: Same as Baseline. Slightly
increased by 5% between Jun – Dec ‘10
but expected to decrease by 22% till Jun.
‘11
Golis guban
Camel: Above Baseline. Increased by
35% between Jan – Jun ‘10 and further
increase of 19% is expected till Dec. ‘10
Sheep/goats: Near Baseline. Sustained
unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 but
expected to increase by 11% of Baseline
till Jun. ‘11
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade - Burao
Regional Trends in
Goat Local Quality
Price and Terms of
Trade: Cereal to Goat
Local Quality
Livestock
Regional Trends in Livestock Prices & Terms of Trade - Erigavo
Regional Trends in Goat Local
Quality Price and Terms of
Trade: Cereal to Goat Local
Quality
Livestock
Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera Port
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
2005
2006
2007
# Heads
2008
5-Yr Average
2009
2010
Livestock
Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Early water trucking in Sool plateau, Badhan,
FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Good body condition Hawd, Hargeisa, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Early water trucking Hawd L/Anod, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Poor Pasture Condition. Nugal Valley, Taleh,
FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Markets
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
NW: Imported Commodity Prices
compared to Exchange Rate
12000
PETROL 1 Litre
Factors Affecting
Commercial Import Prices:
SUGAR 1 kg
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
10000
Price per Unit (SLSh)
RED RICE 1 kg
SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR
•Appreciation of SlSh
8000
•Increased price of rice and
sugar at international
markets
6000
4000
2000
Month
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
0
Nutrition
Summary of Nutrition Findings
Region
Nutrition Surveys
(Oct-Dec’10)
Rapid MUAC
Screening (%
<12.5cm)
Pastoral
–
West Golis/Guban
GAM:10.4% (7.6-13.9)
SAM: 1.6% (0.9-2.9)
4.1 (2.4-7.2)
Hawd
GAM: 10.1% (8.0-12.7)
SAM: 1.8% (1.0-3.5)
East Golis of Sanaag
and Gebbi Valley
GAM:11.1% (8.0-15.1)
SAM: 2.1% (1.2-3.9)
AgroPastoral
Health Information System Info
(Source: HIS data R=3)
HIS TRENDS: Low <5%
and stable number of
acutely malnourished
children
TFC/OTP/
SFC
Targeted feeding
in MCH by WFP
Other relevant information – Key
driving factors
MORBIDITY: 26.1%
No disease outbreaks.
Summary of analysis
and change from Gu
10
West Golis/Guban
Serious- Stable , no
change
MORBIDITY: 21.1%
No disease outbreaks.
N/A
MORBIDITY: 43.1
No disease outbreaks, poor milk
availability
3.1 (1.9-4.8)
HIS nutrition trend: Low
and stable no. of acutely
malnourished children
5.8 (3.8-8.6)
Sool Plateau
GAM:8.3% (6.0-11.4)
SAM: 1.6% (0.8-3.1)
2.9 (1.7-5.0)
Nugal Valley
GAM:10.3% (7.0- 14.8)
SAM: 1.0% (0.4 – 2.3)
Agro-pastoral of
Galbeed/Awdal and
Togdheer
GAM:10.4% (7.6- 14.1)
SAM: 0.8% (0.3 –
1.91)
4.2 (2.5-6.0)
HIS nutrition trend: High
and fluctuating no. of
acutely malnourished
children
HIS nutrition trend: 1015% and stable no. of
acutely malnourished
children
High and stable
trends
MORBIDITY: 40.4
No disease outbreaks,
1.5 (0.6-2.5)
MORBIDITY: 28.7
No disease outbreaks.
Targeted feeding
in MCH by WFP
N/A
Overall Aggravating
Factors:
•Limited milk availability in the
pastoral LHZs
•High morbidity (increased
incidences of diarrhea following the
water shortages in the area
•Inappropriate child feeding and
care practices
•Poor access to sanitation facilities
and safe water in rural LHZs
Overall Mitigating Factors:
HIS nutrition trend: Low
and stable numbers of
malnourished children
East Golis of
Sanaag/Gebbi
Deterioration from
Alert to Serious
N/A
N/A
HIS nutrition trend: high
and fluctuating trend. of
acutely malnourished
children
MORBIDITY: 48.9
No disease outbreaks,
Hawd
Serious- Stable , no
change
•Increased humanitarian
programmes in the region (health,
feeding, WASH)
•Child Health Days conducted in the
area in the months of December/
January 2011
Sool Plateau
Alert – Stable no
change
Nugal Valley
Deterioration from
Alert to Serious
Agro- Pastoral
Deterioration from
Alert to Serious
Nutrition
Nutrition Situation Maps
Somalia Estimated Nutrition
Situation July 2010
Somalia Estimated Nutrition
Situation January 2011
IPC
Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
MAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010
MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES
Key IPC Reference Outcomes:
•Pastoral of Sool-Sanag Plateau HE: 50% P HE and 50% P AFLC
•East Golis/Gebi of Sanag region: Lasqoray district – AFLC Moderate Risk: 75% P; Other districts - BFI
High Risk to AFLC (25%P in AFLC); Hawd and Nugal valley of Togdheer, Sanag and Sool - BFI High
Risk to AFLC (25% of poor in AFLC); Livelihoods of W. Galbeed and Awdal are BFI with Watch
• Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2100 kcal ppp day
• Water Access: Poor water availability , trucked water of high price than the normal., in Sool
Plateau, Hawd and Nugal valley
• Destitution/Displacement: pastoral destitution from rural diffused
• Coping: distress strategies increasing
• Livelihood Assets: increased, but below baseline
Main Contributing Factors:
 Decreasing asset holding due to high off-take during Jilaal season
 Lack of milk production (camel)
 Reduced household income from own production (livestock/ milk sales)
 High indebtedness (loans)
 Increased expenditure on water for both livestock and human.
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts
NW Regions Affected
Districts
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
GU 10
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood
Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Acute Food and
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Sub-total
16,923
132,695
22,094
22,801
194,513
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-total
18,683
53,717
137,513
209,913
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-total
191,748
28,821
30,924
27,400
278,893
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12,000
2,000
2,000
0
16,000
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-total
53,638
83,748
76,902
214,288
1,000
3,000
12,000
16,000
1,000
3,000
11,000
15,000
5,000
6,000
14,000
25,000
1,000
4,000
11,000
16,000
24,026
50,606
20,983
15,528
111,143
1,008,750
0
0
1,000
1,000
2,000
18,000
0
0
1,000
1,000
2,000
17,000
2,000
4,000
2,000
1,000
9,000
50,000
0
0
1,000
1,000
2,000
18,000
Awdal
Baki
Borama
Lughaye
Zeylac
Woqooyi Galbeed
Berbera
Gebiley
Hargeysa
Togdheer
Burco
Buuhoodle
Owdweyne
Sheikh
Sanaag
Ceel Afweyn
Ceerigaabo
Laasqoray/Badhan
Sool
Caynabo
Laas Caanood
Taleex
Xudun
Sub-total
Grand Total
IPC
Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones
NW Region Affected Livelihood
Zones
Awdal
NW Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle
Fishing
Golis Pastoral
Guban Pastoral
Sub-total
Woqooyi Galbeed
Fishing
Golis Pastoral
Hawd Pastoral
NWAgro-past: Sorghum, cattle
Sub-total
Togdheer
Estimated Population by
Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
GU 10
Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood
Humanitarian Emergency
Acute Food and Livelihood Humanitarian Emergency
Crisis (AFLC)
(HE)
Crisis (AFLC)
(HE)
76,159
1,149
74,592
42,612
194,513
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,437
67,455
70,830
70,191
209,913
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel
23,698
0
0
0
0
Hawd Pastoral
Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep &
camel
Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum,
cattle
Sub-total
Sanaag
223,347
0
0
14,000
0
11,984
0
0
2,000
0
19,864
0
0
0
0
278,893
0
0
16,000
0
Fishing
15,193
0
0
0
0
Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel
56,596
4,000
0
8,000
0
Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats
Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep &
camel
Potato Zone & Vegetables
Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral
30,415
3,000
0
4,000
0
37,396
0
0
3,000
0
7,052
61,347
6,289
214,288
0
9,000
0
16,000
0
9,000
6,000
15,000
0
10,000
0
25,000
0
10,000
6,000
16,000
30,108
0
0
2,000
0
72,608
0
0
5,000
0
7,697
730
111,143
1,008,750
2,000
0
2,000
18,000
1,000
1,000
2,000
17,000
2,000
0
9,000
50,000
1,000
1,000
2,000
18,000
Destitute pastoralists
Sub-total
Sool
Hawd Pastoral
Nugal valley-lowland pastoral:
Sheep, camel
Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral
Destitute pastoralists
Sub-total
GRAND TOTAL
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN
AFLC & HE
35,000
68,000
IPC
Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District
UNDP 2005 Urban
Population
District
Awdal
Baki
Borama
Lughaye
Zeylac
Acute Food and
Humanitarian Emergency
Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
(HE)
Deyr ‘10/11
Deyr ‘10/11
Total in AFLC or HE as %
of Urban population
Deyr ‘10/11
Sub-Total
8,577
82,921
14,010
5,434
110,942
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Total
42,070
25,847
422,515
490,432
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Total
96,463
9,607
11,107
6,225
123,402
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sub-Total
7,322
12,159
31,098
5,500
56,079
2,000
4,000
10,000
2,000
18,000
2,000
3,000
7,000
1,000
13,000
55
58
55
55
55
Sub-Total
6,676
24,830
4,371
3,257
39,134
3,000
12,000
2,000
2,000
19,000
0
0
0
0
0
45
48
46
61
49
Woqooyi Galbeed
Berbera
Gebiley
Hargeysa
Togdheer
Burco
Buuhoodle
Owdweyne
Sheikh
Sanaag
Badhan
Ceel Afweyn
Ceerigaabo
Laasqoray
Sool
Caynabo
Laas Caanood
Taleex
Xudun
The End