Transcript South - SRS - Forest Inventory and Analysis

Softwood Timber Supply
Outlook and Influences
Southern Forest Products Association
2004 Annual Meeting
Asheville, North Carolina
September 26 - 28
Richard A. Harper, CF, RF
Forest Resource Analyst
USDA Forest Service, SRS, FIA
Knoxville, TN 37919
[email protected]
Pulp & Paper Mills
in the South
Historical look at Pulp & Paper and Sawmills
1953  51 Mills 1995  105 Mills 2004  94 Mills
470 tons/day
1,325 tons/day
1,310 tons/day
All Primary Saw and Veneer Mills in the South
1950s – 20,000+/- Mills?
1960 – ???? Mills 12.6 Bill. BF
1970 – 4,528 Mills 16.0 Bill. BF
1980 – 3,674 Mills 19.4 Bill. BF
1990 – 2,838 Mills 24.0 Bill. BF
1999 – 2,289 Mills 26.5 Bill. BF
R. Harper
USDA Forest Service, FIA
TPO data
2001 – 2,189 Mills 25.8 Bill. BF
U.S. Annual Lumber and Wood Pulp Production, 1900-2003
70
70
U.S. wood pulp output peaked
in the mid-90s, and since 1995
an unprecedented drop in wood
pulp output has occurred.
U.S. Annual Lumber and W ood Pulp Production, 1900-2003
50
60
50
Softwood Lumber
Hardwood Lumber
Wood Pulp
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
1900
1910
1920
1930 1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Sources: Howard, J. L. Research Paper FPL-RP-595 (and earlier reports); AF&PA Monthly Statistical Summary;
Wood pulp production includes estimates of dissolving pulp and wood pulp for construction paper and board
Millions of tons - wood pulp.
Billions of board feet - lumber .
Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest,Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
60
Forested Regions of the World
27%
14%
14%
23%
U.S. ≈ 6%
17%
5%
South
1.7%
R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
South’s Percent of Industrial Wood Products
(All Roundwood Production)
1952
41% of U.S.
6.3% of World
1997
58% of U.S.
15.8% of World
Today
18% of World
While U.S. ≈ 25% of World
Industrial Wood Output is projected to
increase  50% between 1995 and 2040
J. Prestemon and R. Abt
Journal of Forestry, Oct/Nov 2002
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
Forestland
Forestland
Ownership
in the United States
U.S. Forestland and Ownerships
Legend
Forest
Nonforest
USDA Forest Service,
North Central Research Station
Forest Inventory and Analysis
Softwood Mill Capacity in the United States
Forest Type Map
U.S. Mill Capacity
Mill Capacity (MMBF/Year)
Less
than 10Type
(221mills)
Forest
10 – 50
(214 mills)
Hardwood
50 – 100 (135 mills)
100 – 200 Softwood
(113 mills)
Greater thanNon
200 Forest
(30 mills)
Data - H. Spelter, M. Alderman
FPL-RP-608
Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI
Map - Dale Gormanson
North Central Research Station
St. Paul, MN
U.S. Softwood Lumber Capacity
Change by Region 1996-2002
Million Cubic Meters
60
1995 Capacity
50
2002 Capacity
40
Capacity Loss
Net Capacity Change
0.5%
13.5%
30
20
10
0
21%
7.1%
14%
North
H. Spelter, USDA FS, Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
9%
South
West
Softwood Sawtimber
Volume/Acre of Timberland
U.S. Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland
Board Feet/Acre
of Timberland
None
Less than 500
501 - 2,000
2,001 - 5,000
5,001 - 8,000
8,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 20,000
Greater than 20,000
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB
ESRI 2002 data & maps
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
Intensity of Softwood
Sawlog Harvest – 2001
U.S. Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001
Board Feet/Acre
of Timberland
None
Less than 50
50 - 125
125 - 250
250 - 500
Greater than 500
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB
ESRI 2002 data & maps
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
Change in Softwood Sawtimber
Production Intensity – 1996 to 2001
U.S. Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001
Board Feet/Acre
of Timberland
Less than 25
-24 to 25 (no change)
Greater than 25
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB
ESRI 2002 data & maps
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
Softwood Sawtimber Volume
per Acre of Timberland
South Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland
Board Feet/Acre
of Timberland
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB
ESRI 2002 data & maps
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
None
Less than 1000
1001 - 2000
2001 - 3000
3001 - 5000
Greater than 5000
Intensity of Softwood
Sawlog Harvest – 2001
South Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001
Board Feet/Acre
of Timberland
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB
ESRI 2002 data & maps
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
None
Less than 50
50 - 100
100 - 200
Greater than 200
Change in Softwood Sawtimber
Production Intensity – 1996 to 2001
South Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001
Board Feet/Acre
of Timberland
Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB
ESRI 2002 data & maps
USDA Forest Service
North Central Research Station
D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper
Less than -24
-24 to 25
Greater than 25
Trends in Softwood Volume by D.B.H. Class - South
Trends in Softwood Volume by
D.B.H. Class - South
700
Tons (million)
2002
600
1997
500
1987
1977
400
1953
300
200
100
0
6
R. Harper
USDA Forest Service, FIA data
8
10
12
14
16
D.B.H. (inches)
18
20
22-28
Globally, industrial forest plantations have expanded
to over 200 million acres by the year 2000 (according
to FAO*), with most expansion in Asia and Oceania.
Global Tree Plantations
250
27%
14%
South America
14%
5%
Millions of Acres
17%
23%
North America
200
Europe
Asia & Oceania
150
Africa
100
50
0
(?)
(?)
*The plantation acreage in
Asia is questionable, but
in any case there are now
tens of millions of acres
of industrial plantations
worldwide.
Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest,Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
South Tree Plantation and D.B.H Classes
Also, the shifts in pulpwood demand and timber
harvest were accompanied by big increases in the
area of managed timber plantations and intensity
of management for Southern pine . . .
Million Tons
Volume by DBH Distribution of
Planted SYP - South
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
Stand Age 15-20
Since 1985, an estimated 32 million acres
Stand Age 20-25
of pines were planted in the South
Stand Age 25-30
(Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry)
Stand Age 30-35
Stand Age 35-40
5.06.9
7.08.9
9.0- 11.0- 13.0- 15.0- 17.0- 19.010.9 12.9 14.9 16.9 18.9 20.9
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIADB
Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA, Knoxville, TN
DBH
Seedlings Planted in the South,
1945 – 1999 (Industry & Private)
Historical Planted Acres in the South
Acres (millions)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Soil
Bank
Conservation
Reserve
Program
Industry
1.0
0.5
NIPF
19
45
19
49
19
53
19
57
19
61
19
65
19
69
19
73
19
77
19
81
19
85
19
89
19
93
19
97
0.0
SFRA, Sept. 2002
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
Historical Planted Acres in the South
3.0
Historical Planted Acres by U.S Regions
Million acres
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
North
South
2002
1992
1982
1972
1962
1952
0.0
West
Figure 12-1. Tree planting in the United States by year and region, 1952–1996.
R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003
Projected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types- South
Projected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types - South
3,000
67%
67%
1995
2020
2040
Tons (thousand)
2,500
55%
55%
2,000
1,500
1,000
43%
43%
27%
27%
25%
25%
18%
18%
500
0
Planted
J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002
Natural
Oak-pine
Upland
hardwood
Bottomland
hardwood
Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South
1,600
Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South
1995
2020
2040
Tons (thousand)
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
0-10
10-20
20-30
30-40
Age Class (years)
J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002
40-50
50+
The Southern Regional Timber Supply model (SRTS) that was used in the
recent Southern Forest Resource Assessment projected an increase in
softwood timber inventory on private forestland in the South out to 2040.
Billion cubic feet
160
SRTS Southern Softwood
Private Timber Inventory, 1995–2040
≈36%
increase
120
80
40
0
Softwood
Peter J. Ince
U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory,
Madison, WI
1995
2010
2025
2040
89
101
111
121
Professor Bob Abt, NCSU; Fall 2001
See http://courses.ncsu.edu/classes/for319001/sofac/sfs_fwc_timsupply.ppt
Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth
and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species)
80
Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth
and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species)
In an article published in the
January 2003 Forest Products
Journal, Professor Siry (Univ. of GA)
estimated that the average annual
growth increment of Southern pine
plantations will have increased by
69.2 million green tons per year,
between 1987 and 2004 (at left).
70
Million green tons
60
50
40
Meanwhile, actual data on pulpwood
receipts from the Forest Resources
Association show that annual U.S.
pulpwood receipts (all species,
roundwood and residues) have
declined by -6.74 million green tons
between 1987 and 2001 . . .
30
20
10
0
-10
Shift in Pine Plantation Growth
Peter J. Ince
U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
Shift in U.S. Pulpwood Receipts
Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood),
Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections
Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood),
Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections
20
18
Billion cubic feet
16
Fuelwood & Misc.
OSB
Veneer logs
Sawlogs
20
1989 RPA
2001 RPA
18
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
Peter J. Ince
U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
Population
Population Density Map
Density Map
Population Density Impact on Forestry
# of People Per Square Mile
2000 Census
0 -99
100 - 199
200 - 399
400 - 799
> 800
# of People Per Square Mile
2000 Census
0 -99
100 - 199
200 - 399
400 - 799
> 800
At approximately 45 people/square mile, there is a 50:50
chance of practicing forestry.
R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA
At 150 people/square mile, forestry approaches zero
Virginia Study (D. Wear, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998).
Compiled by R. Harper, J. McCollum USDA Forest Service, FIA
Forecast Change in Forestland
1992 – 2010
Forecast Change in Forestland 1992 - 2010
Forest change
> 14% loss
8 – 14% loss
0 – 8% loss
Stable
> 1% gain
D. Wear, et.al, SFRA, Sept. 2002
South-wide Pine Sawtimber
Stumpage Price
1991(3rd Qtr.) to 2003(2nd Qtr.) $/ton
50
45
Stumpage
Stumpage trend
$/Ton
40
35
Annual Decrease 2.7%
30
25
20
Annual Increase 12.1%
15
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: Timber Mart-South
Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels
Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels and Lumber Production Shift
The downward shifts in pulpwood
demand and U.S. timber harvest
were accompanied by a huge
decline in National Forest harvest
levels since the 1980s . . .
Lumber
Production
ShiftNFS Harvest
Also, NFS timber
inventory data
were revised upward since the
last timber
assessment.
1986
to 1997
West ` 27%
R. Haynes, USDA
Forest Service,
PNW-GTR-560
South & 34%
Source: Forest Service ‘Sold and Harvest’ Reports, through FY ‘02
Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI
Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices
500
US$ per MBF
(lumber or timber)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1Q86
1Q88
1Q90
1Q92
1Q94
1Q96
1Q98
1Q00
1Q02
1Q04
RL Composite Lumber
SE Avg PST stumpage
Poly. (RL Composite Lumber)
Poly. (SE Avg PST stumpage)
Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South
Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices
500
US$ per MBF
(lumber or timber)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1Q86
1Q88
1Q90
1Q92
1Q94
1Q96
1Q98
1Q00
1Q02
RL Composite Lumber
SC Avg PST stumpage
Poly. (RL Composite Lumber)
Poly. (SC Avg PST stumpage)
Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South
Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact???
Softwood harvest (billion cubic feet)
Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact???
2.5
Zero national forest harvest
2.0
Base case
Doubled NF cut interior West
1989 RPA Projection
(≈10.8 BBF*)
(Healthy Forest Initiative)
1.5
Adds ≈445 Million CF/YR (≈2.5 BBF*)
1.0
≈700 Million CF/YR (≈4 BBF*)
0.5
0.0 SW Stump $ ` ≈ 2%
SW Lumber $ ` ≈ 2%
1975
1985 ` ≈1995
SW Removal
1%
2005
2015
Year
2025
2035
2045
* BBF = Billion Board Feet
Figure 73–National forest softwood harvest in base, zero harvest, and doubled interior
West harvest scenarios.
R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003
J. Mills, X. Zhou, PNW-GTR-568, Jan. 2003
Southern Forests
The World’s Preeminent Producer
• The U.S. South is the single largest producer
of industrial roundwood.
• The U.S. South produces approximately 25%
of the world’s wood pulp, 18% of solid wood
products.
• The South currently produces 58% of the
total U.S. harvest.
• 60% of the total U.S. forest industry capital
spending is dedicated to the South.
Summary
Summary
Softwood
resource
• The forest resource
situation is
constantly changing,
1985,
an estimated
32 millionassessments…
acres
and change isSince
one
rationale
for FIA/RPA
looks
abundant
of pines were planted in the South
(Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry)
• Big shifts recently:
14%
- Pulpwood Demand ` down
27%
- National Forest
Harvest ` down
- Pine Plantations (South)
& up
14%
• Result: Big build up in standing timber inventories
(especially for NFS, Other Public, & NIPF)
17%
5%
• Issues for future23%
timber assessments (2010 RPA?):
- Globalization, consolidation, & fiber demand
Plantations
of the Worldof≈ plantations
220 million acres
- Future development
- Other big changes?
Peter J. Ince
U.S. Forest
Products Laboratory, Madison, WI