Transcript Forest modeling highlights

Impacts ands Risks to Forest Values
in the San Jose Watershed: results
from the RAC project
Harry Nelson, UBC
October 9, 2012
Cariboo Regional District Offices
Williams Lake, BC
The San Jose Watershed
Impacts, vulnerability, and risk
•
•
•
Impacts are the measurable effects of climate change on people
and the environment. They include things like increased peak river
flows and higher average annual temperatures.
Vulnerability describes how susceptible a system is to the
impacts of climate change. Example: if storm is predicted to bring
heavy rainfall and a community’s stormwater management system
is not designed to accommodate the volume of water, that
stormwater management system is vulnerable to the impact of
storms.
Risk refers to both the likelihood that a particular system will
experience an impact of climate change, and how serious the
outcome will be. It encompasses both the probability of an impact
and the likelihood of an occurrence to evaluate potential
consequences.
Mean predicted change in mean
seasonal temperature under the High
Climate Change Scenario
7.0
Change in Temperature (C)
6.0
5.0
4.0
2020s
2050s
3.0
2080s
2.0
1.0
0.0
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Winter
Figure 10, p.28
Mean predicted change in seasonal
precipitation under the High Climate
Change Scenario
30.0%
Precent Change in Seasonal Precipitation
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2020s
2050s
-10.0%
2080s
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Figure 11, p. 28
Winter
Projected
temperature and
precipitation at the
Williams Lake
Airport in 2080
under the High
Climate Change
Scenario
p.29
BioGeoclimactic Zones in the San Jose
Watershed
Douglas Fir Productivity on Different
Soil Types in the IDF under High CC
250
Voulme (m3/ha)
200
150
Historical
Poor
Medium
100
Good
50
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Time (Years)
Figure 15, p. 32
Lodgepole Pine Productivity in the
SubBoreal under High CC
250
Voulme (m3/ha)
200
150
Historical
Poor
Medium
100
Good
50
0
0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Time (Years)
Figure 16, p. 32
Overall Effects Translate into Reduced
Timber Supply
200,000
180,000
160,000
No Climate Change
Harvest (m3/yr)
140,000
High Climate Change
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Decade
Figure 17, p. 33
• And a Significantly Changing Forest Structure
Over Time
No climate change (base case)
High Climate change
From Figure 30, p. 38
Forest Values at Risk
• timber harvesting can be sustained in its current
form for many more decades, the risks to future
timber supply are also steadily growing
• by the end of century there are areas within the
landbase where the economics of timber
operations (based on current values and
economic models) would be challenged by low
stocking levels and increased regeneration costs.
Forest Values at Risk (2)
• Our simulation also shows that climate change
is likely to lead to a highly changed forest
landscape in the future; and in some cases
current habitat prescriptions (e.g. mule deer
winter habitat) will no longer be appropriate