Transcript 1720 Japan as a Modern Economy

Economic Growth
in
Tokugawa Japan
(徳川幕府・江戸時代 1600-1868)
Michael Smitka
October 2009
Warren Wilson College
Issues
• was Japan poor? -- standard of living
• was the economy static? -- growth process
versus political process
• institutional, other legacies
– How hold together / integrate an empire
• Curiosity: merely understanding Edo-era
(1600-1868) Tokugawa hegemony
Models
• Not for today! – you’re not all econ people!
– Solow one-sector model
• Output as function of
– technology
– inputs of Kapital, Labour
– diminishing returns
– Lewis-Fei-Ranis two-sector model: agriculture, urban
• population growth can eat up gains
– hence agriculture is important
• also core source of “industrial” inputs
• Both highlight Malthus: demographics in a
traditional, low savings-cum-investment economy
Other factors besides “hard” tech
• organizational & institutional change are
both underrated
– “Smithian” growth via specialization and trade:
“classical” growth in all senses of the word
– government provision of infrastructure, other
public goods
– development of business networks and accepted
practices in markets: institutional infrastructure
Demographics
Low Population Growth Central!
• population growth can swamp positive
factors
• indeed, for most of human history standards
of living changed little
• how about Japan? -- and if not, why?
– Late marriage led to low fertility
– Lots of evidence of conscious family planning!
Shifts in Family Structure
Average for Selected villages
Suwa Region, modern Nagano Prefecture
1671-1700
1701-1750
1751-1800
1801-1850
1851-1870
Avg. Household Size
Nishiko
Yamaura
Avg Couples per Household
Nishiko
Yamaura
7.87
6.14
4.66
4.22
4.31
1.97
1.41
1.32
1.25
1.20
8.55
9.93
6.94
4.73
4.48
1.83
2.34
2.05
1.37
1.30
Population Growth Rates
Region
Kinki
Tokai
Kanto
Tohoku
Tozan
Hokuriku105.3
San'in
San'yo
Shikoku
Kyushu
1798
93.5
100.1
85
86
106.1
1804
1828
1834
118.8
106.8
111.7
105.3
120
109.9
114.9
107.3
129.9
119.8
123.8
111.3
132.7
121.8
126.1
112.2
1721 = 100
Kinki, Tokai, Kanto, Tohoku, Tozan all fell.
Hokuriku slow growth
growth 1846
93.5
106.6
86.6
88.7
110.1
117.6
11.7%
11.7% 124.8
14.0% 120.2
12.9% 126.8
6.6% 113.8
‘98-’46
0.0%
6.5%
1.9%
3.1%
3.8%
4.0%
9.4%
10.4%
6.1%
48 years
selected regions,
Growth, Edo Period
50
45
40
35
30
Pop (mil)
25
Arable Land
Farm Output
20
15
10
5
0
1600
1650
1700
1720
1730
1750
1800
1850
1872
Agricultural Productivity Measures
Yield per person (left)
Yield per unit of land (left)
Area per Person (right)
1.8
20
1.6
18
16
14
1.2
12
1
10
0.8
8
0.6
6
0.4
4
0.2
2
0
0
1600
1650
1700
1720
1730
1750
1800
1850
1872
Area per person
Productivity per person / per land
1.4
Basic Historical Overview
• breakdown of old Muromachi order
• continual warfare during 1500s,
• large, musket-using armies made samurai obsolete and
were equal to anything the Spanish had
• but fielding 100,000 armed troops takes money
• Symbol of economic growth
• not possible before late 1500s
• spread of irrigated rice, other new crops (cotton)
• civil engineering techniques from China enabling much
more irrigation
Area of
Indica
(short-grain)
Rice
Cultivation
–
early 1700s
–
darker hatching
indicates greater
cultivation of
indica rice
–
Geopolitical context
• 1540: arrival of Francis Xavier & diffusion
of muskets
• Legitimate fears of invasion
– Colonization of Philippines
– Weakening & Collapse of Ming China
• End of endemic war / unification under Oda
Nobunaga & Toyotomi Hideyoshi
• Trade in silver for silk: no bulk goods
Tokugawa Ieyasu (1600)
• Tokugawa shogunate organized in 1603
–
–
–
–
Tokugawa Ieyasu & allies won final battle in 1600
Only controlled 25% of country directly
Large “tozama” han (countries) never conquered
How to maintain the peace?
• Foreign affairs
• Sankin kotai - hostages, alternate attendance in Edo
• Separate samurai from farmers
• Compare with how Chinese rulers held
together their various empires!
The two 250’s
• multiple “kuni” (country?!)
– each headed by a semi-autonomous “daimyo” (lord)
– variations in laws, economic structure
– National cadastral survey was basis of land tax
• roughly 250 political-economic units
– Most extremely small
– Samurai moved to cities: forestalls peasant revolts
– Peasants disarmed
• Peace for 250 years!
– Europe has never managed that
Mid-16th Century Han
(“countries”)
Uesugi
Mōri
Takeda
Shimazu
Imagawa
Hōjō
Ōtomo
Chōsokabe
1664 Kuni (国 countries)
Growth stimulus?
• Tokugawa control system had:
– implications for macroeconomic resource flows
in a two-sector context
– implications for commercialization and
monetization of the economy
• Lewis two-sector model: forced flows?
– Attendance in Edo (Tokyo) forced development
of financial system and logistics
Road
to
Edo
江戸
(Tokyo)
Government role
• the Edo “bakufu” fostered navigation
– port and lighthouse development
– maps etc. all by around 1720
• formal financial markets promoted
–
–
–
–
rice futures market in Osaka by 1720
transferring money in place of in-kind taxes
insurance markets (esp. casualty)
local (rural) finance by 1800s
1685
Japan Sea Route Pending
Shipping Routes after 1720
1791
Full Route with Ports & Distances
Market-oriented economy
• especially intense development in several regions
– cash-crop farms around Osaka (farmers bought food!)
– large urban consumer market
• commercial elite for whom political advancement
was foreclosed (cf. English Dissenters)
• education spread.
– ukiyoe were for mass-market (wedding presents…)
– lots of agricultural handbooks - 200+ titles in print
Osaka Merchant District
蚕養図会画本宝能縷 1739
http://rarebook.ndl.go.jp/pre/servlet/pre_wa_fit.jsp;jsessionid=2419EDC4E5EBB686E3E2EDCC618A6D3A
Specialization by the “kuni”
(export products)
• Silk, cotton, salt, lumber, paper, fish
• Some regions largely industrial
• Seasonal “proto-industry” often accompanied by
regional migration
• Both men & women active in wage labor outside
the home
Osaka as an Entrepot (1714)
Principal non-Rice Imports / Exports
Imports
Marine products
Agricultural items
Clothing & textiles
Oilseed
Mining products
Fertilizer
Wood products
Misc Imports
Tea & tobacco
Tatami
Kyoto crafts
Total (Ag value)
20.2%
19.5
15.4
12.9
7.5
6.4
5.9
4.1
2.8
2.0
0.9
286,561 kan
Exports
Oil & beeswax
36.4%
Clothing & textiles
25.2
Misc tools
7.5
Misc exports
7.3
Processed food
6.1
Accessories & decorations 5.8
Lacquerware & pottery 4.6
Seedcake (fertilizer)
3.4
Furniture
0.5
Weapons
0.5
Arts & crafts
0.4%
Total
95,800 kan
Extent of Cotton Cultivation
Japan remained able to shift land out of food crops
Specialization in Agriculture
Cotton Production
Koga county, Harima han
near modern Kobe
Year
Irrigated
fields
Dryland
Reclaimed
Total
1801
1807
1813
1822
1832
1842
1847
0.4%
0.6
3.0
4.3
0.5
2.2
1.5
13.7%
15.1
41.5
38.6
34.5
38.6
35.2
28.5%
25.2
36.9
36.8
34.8
36.9
35.2
8.2%
8.2
17.3
17.4
13.4
16.2
14.5
Note: I find it surprising that any irrigated fields were used for cotton instead of rice!
In the 1880s imports led to a sharp drop in domestic output, and production ceased by 1900.
Standard of Living
• transformation of consumption
– various rough fibers replaced by cotton; silk worn by more than
just elite
– new (and better foods). peppers, sweet potatoes / taro, corn, etc.
– new and better housing: tatami mats off the ground
– vast increases in protein-laden soybean-related consumption (miso,
soy sauce)
• Education
– Literate society, perhaps more so than England!
– Vast outpouring of books, circulated through lending libraries
– Even nascent “western” studies, esp. in 1800s
End of Tokugawa rule
• 250 years of peace meant hard to forestall Western imperialists
• Delicate political balance made it impossible to increase revenue
– taxing goods & commerce would create big winners, politically out
– Land tax meant fixed government revenues in a growing economy
• US Adm. Perry (1854) and Russians in north forced opening of ports
– Beefing up military crucial
– Personalities ruled out restructuring Tokugawa domestic accord
• Lack of national government, lack of standing army no longer tenable
• Outside tozama han put together alliance and toppled the Tokugawa
family in a nearly-bloodless coup
• Only remaining national symbol - the Emperor - used by victors
Kawaguchi Ironware
Zaguri
(silk weaving
machine)
Loom (karabikibata)
c. 1770
Spinning
Silk
Whale
Processing
Factory
Growth of a National Market
Rice Price Movements Converged in the 17th Century
Structure of
National Output
– 1874 –
• shortly after “opening” to
the West
• before significant
structural change from
– new technologies
– convergence of domestic &
international prices
Agriculture
rice
Industry
textiles
food
Other
Queries
• Was China a modern economy?
– When?
– Extent?
• Cf. William Skinner on economic
geography of Ming China
• Cf. Kenneth Pomeranz on lower Yangtze
river and limits to growth
Data
• Following slides provide select data and pictures
of technology for Edo ear
• See library for the period from 1868-1945, e.g.
– Economic growth in prewar Japan / Takafusa Nakamura ; translated by
Robert A. Feldman,Yale University Press 1983 HC462.8 .N25513 1983
– Cambridge History of Japan, various entries, DS835 .C36 1988
– The interwar economy of Japan : colonialism, depression, and recovery,
1910-1940 / edited with introductions by Michael Smitka. Garland Pub.,
1998 HC462.7 .I584 1998
– Japanese prewar growth : lessons for development theory? / edited with
introductions by Michael Smitka Garland Pub., 1998 HC462.7 .J385 1998