Transcript Forecasts - Analysys Mason

Research forecast report
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
Patrick Kelly, Peter Mottishaw, Mark H. Mortensen, Glen Ragoonanan,
Justin van der Lande and Dean Ramsay
November 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
2
Contents
Contents
Slide no.
4.
List of figures and tables [1]
5.
List of figures and tables [2]
6.
Document map – Executive summary
7.
Worldwide telecoms software forecast
8.
Spending on mobile services continues to dominate
the telecoms software market
9.
CSPs in APAC and CALA will continue to increase
their spending more rapidly than in NA and EMEA
10. SDPs will be the fastest-growing telecoms software
segment
11. Economic recovery has been moderate throughout
2010 and 2011
12. Overall market drivers
13. Document map – Business environment
14. The business environment in 2010
15. Regional outlook for 2011
16. Document map – Market definition
17. Telecoms software market segmentation
18. Telecoms software definitions
19. Billing segment and sub-segment definitions
20. Customer care segment and sub-segment
definitions
21. Service assurance segment and sub-segment
definitions
22. Service fulfilment segment and sub-segment
definitions
Slide no.
23. SDP segment and sub-segment definitions [1]
24. SDP segment and sub-segment definitions [2]
25. NMS segment and sub-segment definitions
26. Document map – Forecasts
27. Forecasts: Service delivery platforms
28. Worldwide service delivery platform forecast
29. The growing dominance of Android and Apple
ecosystems in the content value chain will
undermine spending on SDPs
30. Mobile services continue to be the primary focus for
SDP spending
31. Operators in developed and emerging markets are
investing in SDPs to support service innovation
32. Forecasts: Billing
33. Worldwide billing system forecast
34. Business optimisation will be the fastest-growing
sub-segment
35. Mobile services continue to account for the majority
of spending on billing systems
36. Emerging markets continue to have the highest
growth rate for investment in billing systems
37. Forecasts: Customer care
38. Worldwide customer care system forecast
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Contents
Contents
Slide no.
39. CRM and customer interaction revenue grow
strongly, while subscriber management will grow
with the billing market
40. Mobile will continue to dominate, but business and
residential broadband will continue to grow
41. All regions will grow, as CSPs in mature markets
offer new services and competition increases in
emerging markets
42. Forecasts: Service fulfilment
43. Worldwide service fulfilment system forecast
44. Order management, inventory management and
activation systems will continue their growth,
providing flow-through
45. The mobile and business service segments will
grow the fastest, but residential broadband will still
be the largest
46. Emerging markets will achieve the highest growth,
while developed markets, especially Western
Europe, will lag
47. Forecasts: Service assurance
48. Worldwide service assurance forecast
49. The next wave of technology upgrades is driving
growth in the service assurance market
50. Automation of workflow process in the testing and
service deployment phases is generating strong
demand
Slide no.
51. A focus on workforce efficiency is driving
investments in mature telecoms services in North
America and Europe
52. Forecasts: Network management systems
53. Worldwide network management systems forecast
54. Fixed and mobile broadband technologies and
services will drive growth in mobile and residential
broadband
55. Annex: Professional services forecast
56. The roll-out of new network technologies in
emerging markets will drive revenue growth in all
segments
57. Document map – About the authors and
Analysys Mason
58. About the authors [1]
59. About the authors [2]
60. Copyright and disclaimer
61. About Analysys Mason
62. Research from Analysys Mason
63. Consulting from Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Contents
List of tables and figures [1]
Slide no.
7. Figure 1: Telecoms software revenue, worldwide,
2010–2015
8. Figure 2: Telecoms software revenue by telecoms
service, worldwide, 2010–2015
9. Figure 3: Telecoms software revenue by region,
worldwide, 2010–2015
10. Figure 4: Telecoms software revenue by segment,
worldwide, 2010–2015
11. Table 1: Year-on-year economic growth, by region
and in selected countries, 2009–2012
11. Figure 5: Year-on-year economic growth and
telecoms software growth, worldwide, 2009–2011
17. Figure 6: Telecoms software market segments
18. Table 2: Definitions of the telecoms software market
and its products and services
19. Table 3: Definitions of the billing segment and its
sub-segments
20. Table 4: Definitions of the customer care segment
and its sub-segments
21. Table 5: Definitions of the service assurance
segment and its sub-segments
22. Table 6: Definitions of the service fulfilment segment
and its sub-segments
23. Table 7a: Definitions of the SDP segment and its
sub-segments
Slide no.
24. Table 7b: Definitions of the SDP segment and its
sub-segments
25. Table 8: Definitions of the NMS segment and its subsegments
28. Figure 7: Service delivery platform revenue,
worldwide, 2010–2015
29. Figure 8: Service delivery platform revenue by subsegment, worldwide, 2010–2015
30. Figure 9: Service delivery platform revenue by
telecoms service, worldwide, 2010–2015
31. Figure 10: Service delivery platform revenue by
region, worldwide, 2010–2015
33. Figure 11: Billing system revenue, worldwide, 2010–
2015
34. Figure 12: Billing system revenue by sub-segment,
worldwide, 2010–2015
35. Figure 13: Billing system revenue by telecoms
service, worldwide, 2010–2015
36. Figure 14: Billing system revenue by region,
worldwide, 2010–2015
38. Figure 15: Customer care system revenue,
worldwide, 2010–2015
39. Figure 16: Customer care system revenue by subsegment, worldwide, 2010–2015
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Contents
List of tables and figures [2]
Slide no.
40. Figure 17: Customer care system revenue by
telecoms service, worldwide, 2010–2015
41. Figure 18: Customer care system revenue by
region, worldwide, 2010–2015
43. Figure 19: Service fulfilment system revenue,
worldwide, 2010–2015
44. Figure 20: Service fulfilment system revenue by
sub-segment, worldwide, 2010–2015
45. Figure 21: Service fulfilment system revenue by
telecoms service, worldwide, 2010–2015
46. Figure 22: Service fulfilment system revenue by
region, worldwide, 2010–2015
48. Figure 23: Service assurance revenue, worldwide,
2010–2015
49. Figure 24: Service assurance revenue by subsegment, worldwide, 2010–2015
50. Figure 25: Service assurance revenue by telecoms
service, worldwide, 2010–2015
51. Figure 26: Service assurance revenue by region,
worldwide, 2010–2015
53. Figure 27: Network management systems revenue,
worldwide, 2010–2015
54. Figure 28: Network management systems revenue
by telecoms service, worldwide, 2010–2015
56. Figure 29: Network management systems revenue
by region, worldwide, 2010–2015
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Document map: Executive summary
Document map
Executive summary
Business environment
Market definition
Forecasts
Annex: Professional services forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Executive summary
Worldwide telecoms software forecast
Figure 1: Telecoms software revenue, worldwide, 2010–2015
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

The worldwide telecoms software market is
forecast to grow from USD19.9 billion in 2010 to
USD28.7 billion in 2015, at a CAGR of 7.9%.

Service delivery platforms (SDPs) continues to be
the fastest-growing telecoms software segment,
while service assurance, service fulfilment and
customer care will achieve more moderate growth.

Growth in subscriber numbers continues to drive
growth in emerging markets while competitive
pressures are driving developed markets.

Economic conditions continue to be uncertain in
developed markets, but telecoms software
revenue continues to show consistent growth.

New network roll-outs and strong competition
between communications service providers
(CSPs) to increase revenue continue to drive the
market as a whole.
35
30
28.7
26.5
24.5
Revenue (USD billion)
25
22.6
21.0
20
19.9
15
10
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Executive summary
Spending on mobile services continues to dominate the
telecoms software market
Figure 2: Telecoms software revenue by telecoms service,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

Spending on mobile software will grow to
USD17 billion in 2015, representing a CAGR
of 9.7% in the forecast period, driven by the
need to support mobile broadband.

Software spending in the business category
will also show strong growth, driven by CSPs’
increasing focus on the SME market for IPbased communications, SaaS and cloud
computing services.

The PSTN market will continue its steady
decline at –7.1% CAGR and its share of
revenue will be just 4.7% of the total telecoms
software market by 2015. CSPs will seek to
phase out support and reduce residual PSTN
costs during the forecast period.

Residential broadband revenue will increase
steadily as service bundling becomes more
complex and support systems evolve
accordingly. Residential broadband revenue
will represent 20.6% of the total market by
2015.
18000
Revenue (USD million)
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2010
Mobile
10923
(CAGR 9.7%)
PSTN
2106
(CAGR –7.1%)
Business
3155
(CAGR 9.1%)
Residential broadband
3924
(CAGR 6.8%)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11818
12914
14198
15523
16976
1959
1784
1615
1482
1374
3370
3630
3965
4302
4676
4232
4642
5062
5509
5989
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Executive summary
CSPs in APAC and CALA will continue to increase their
spending more rapidly than in NA and EMEA
Figure 3: Telecoms software revenue by region, worldwide,
2010–20151 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

12000
Revenue (USD million)
10000

8000
6000
EMEA and NA’s mature markets are
saturated in terms of subscribers, but
innovation in cloud computing services and
advances in the mobile sector such as LTE
deployments will drive moderate growth.
4000

Growth in NA is mainly driven by investments
in LTE, small-cell technology and mobile
backhaul.

The CALA market is driven by broadband
services in Brazil and Mexico and the growth
of mobile services in the region as a whole.
CALA will continue to be the smallest market,
representing just 8% of the total by 2015.
2000
0
NA
(CAGR 6.2%)
CALA
(CAGR 10.3%)
EMEA
(CAGR 6.9%)
APAC
(CAGR 10.8%)
1
Increasing subscriber numbers and business
optimisation requirements in CALA and
APAC will continue to drive high growth rates
in these areas.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5806
6155
6537
6923
7309
7718
1366
1479
1623
1798
1985
2200
7616
7934
8457
9099
9762
10496
5071
5482
6030
6707
7486
8332
APAC = the Asia–Pacific region; CALA = Central and Latin America;
EMEA = Europe, the Middle East and Africa; NA = North America.

APAC’s growth rate of 10.8% CAGR
continues to represent the strongest growth.
APAC will account for 29% of the total market
by 2015.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Executive summary
SDPs will be the fastest-growing telecoms software segment
Figure 4: Telecoms software revenue by segment, worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
35000
Revenue (USD million)
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Service delivery platforms (11.7% CAGR)
Service assurance (8% CAGR)
Service fulfilment (8.6% CAGR)
Customer care (8.4% CAGR)
Network management systems (6.4% CAGR)
Billing (4.4% CAGR)
2010
3629
2374
2308
2316
4410
4822
2011
3987
2519
2473
2458
4647
4967
2012
4471
2727
2650
2631
5013
5155
2013
5023
2977
2882
2836
5400
5408
2014
5651
3232
3157
3110
5703
5689
2015
6305
3490
3491
3463
6014
5984
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Executive summary
Economic recovery has been moderate throughout 2010 and
2011

The telecoms software forecast depends on
overall economic conditions, but we forecast that
telecoms software spending will grow well above
the rate of worldwide economic growth.
Real GDP growth in the USA is projected to pick
up very gradually from about 1% in the second
quarter of 2011 to about 2% later in 2012.

In Europe, many countries continue to be in
recession, but telecoms software deals are
increasing.

Network upgrades are resulting in stronger growth
in the assurance, fulfilment, and NMS segments.
New services will support growth in the billing,
customer care and SDP areas.
Table 1: Year-on-year economic growth, by region and in
selected countries, 2009–2012 [Source: IMF, 2011]
Projections
2009
2010
2011
2012
World output
–0.7
5.1
4.0
4.0
Advanced economies
–3.7
3.1
1.6
1.9
2.8
7.3
6.4
6.1
Emerging and developing economies
Figure 5: Year-on-year economic growth and telecoms
software growth, worldwide, 2009–2011 [Source: Analysys
Mason, 2011]
6%
Annual GDP growth

5%
4%
3%
World
economic
2%
Telecoms
software
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
2009
2010
2011
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Executive summary
Overall market drivers


CSPs are launching increasingly complex service offers, and require enhanced customer care, billing, service
assurance and service fulfilment systems to support them.
Increased take-up of mobile data services – driven by high smartphone and tablet PC penetration – will drive
investment in network upgrades and optimisation, which will initially have an impact on the service assurance,
service delivery platforms, service fulfilment and network management systems categories. Ultimately, these
changes will filter through to billing and customer care.

Increasing capacity and service demands are an industry-wide requirement and will lead to the introduction of
technologies such as LTE, FTTx, PON and others. Software vendors are seeking to provide robust service
assurance and service fulfilment systems to support these new technologies.

The convergence of voice and data services will require a change in systems. CSPs are working with
suppliers and systems integrators to design and implement systems that are capable of crossing technology
domains.

CSPs will continue to invest in cloud computing and machine-to-machine (M2M) systems, which will offer the
best long-term growth prospects for new sources of revenue in the telecoms software market.

Increasing subscriber numbers in developing markets will drive strong growth in APAC and CALA while
deployments of advanced new technologies in EMEA and NA will require investment in system support.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Document map: Business environment
Document map
Executive summary
Business environment
Market definition
Forecasts
Annex: Professional services forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
14
Business environment
The business environment in 2010
High growth in subscriber numbers in emerging markets


CSPs in China and India continued to experience high
growth rates for subscriber numbers and those in
emerging markets in the APAC region started to
experience similar growth.
CSPs will replace order management, activation, billing,
and workforce systems to support more flexibility in
product offers and achieve faster time to market.
Economic weakness continues in Europe, Japan and NA

Consumer demand continued to be weak because of
economic factors such as unemployment, house price
declines and poor performance of retirement funds.

CSPs responded to stagnating growth in subscriber
numbers and spending by cutting costs and focusing on
projects that aim to increase profit margins.

Reduced GDP growth in developed economies had a
negative impact on investments in the telecoms market.
Intense competition worldwide
High growth in mobile data services

CSPs in emerging markets invested in systems to reduce
the time to market for new services and to enable them to
react to competitive changes quickly.

Mobile broadband services continued to be an engine of
growth. Technology upgrades in access and backhaul
networks will accelerate into 2012.

All CSPs tried to drastically reduce overheads per
subscriber.

Smartphone and table PC penetration continued to
increase, driving growth in the volume of mobile data.

CSPs invested in new business models by building
ecosystems of third-party developers around application
stores and network APIs.

The migration from T1/E1 circuit-switched to carrier
Ethernet continued to drive BSS/OSS investments.

First-generation LTE roll-outs drove R&D investment in
infrastructure, and operational and business support.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Business environment
Regional outlook for 2011
NA



NA economic growth is not as robust as in the past few
years and we expect that growth in this region will be
lacklustre in the next 2 years.
CSPs are likely to spend more on business optimisation in
order to enhance revenue generation and reduce churn.
CALA

In CALA, the number of mobile subscribers will continue
to increase, particularly in the prepaid segment.

Complex regulatory procedures in this region could
restrict growth.

Dominant CSPs, such as América Móvil/TELMEX,
Cable & Wireless, Columbus Communications, Digicel,
Telefónica and Telecom Italia, will continue to dictate the
pace in this region.
Telecoms spending will increase in this region in line with
growth in the mobile broadband segment. LTE
deployments will also bolster telecoms software spending.
EMEA
APAC

We expect Western and Eastern Europe to recover from
recession slowly in 2011.

Emerging markets in APAC will continue to provide the
best opportunity for vendors to increase revenue.

LTE roll-outs by large Tier 1 CSPs will lead to the
introduction of new data services and associated software
systems throughout 2011, as trials are transformed into
live networks.

China and India will continue to be a major growth
opportunity for telecoms software vendors and CSPs.

Investments in Africa will be funded by expansion from
CSPs in other regions.

CSPs in APAC’s emerging markets and Japan will be
supporting new services and working to increase ARPU
and decrease costs.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Document map: Market definition
Document map
Executive summary
Business environment
Market definition
Forecasts
Annex: Professional services forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
17
Market definition
Telecoms software market segmentation
Figure 6: Telecoms software market segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Professional services
Business
consulting
Design
consulting
Service delivery
platforms
Real-time charging
Mobile content
management and
delivery
Telecoms
application servers
Mobile device
management
Product-related
services
Systems
integration
Custom
development
Outsourced
operations
Hosted managed
services
Billing
Customer care
Service fulfilment
Service assurance
Rating and pricing
Customer
interaction
Order management
Service
management
Partner and
interconnect
Business
optimisation
Mediation
Customer
relationship
management
Subscriber
management
Inventory
management
Activation
Engineering tools
Fault and event
management
Performance
monitoring
Workforce
automation
Probe systems
Network management systems
Mobile
Residential
broadband
Business data
services
PSTN
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Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Market definition
Telecoms software definitions
Table 2: Definitions of the telecoms software market and its products and services [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Market
Definition
Telecoms software Telecoms software is commercially supplied software that is unique to the telecoms business and that CSPs
use in running their business. It includes billing, customer care, service assurance, service fulfilment,
NMS/EMS and SDPs. It excludes software that is common across all industries, such as financials, HR and
ERP. It includes commercially provided licensed software, licensed software support services and productrelated services. It excludes systems integration services, internal IT spending and other work for purely
custom development.
Product or service
Definition
Licensed software
The core products of telecoms software are the licensed products offered by commercial suppliers, such as
ISVs, NEMs and other IT suppliers. Licensed software is included in our forecast.
Licensed software
support
All vendors that provide licensed software offer support services for the software they sell. Support services
provide bug fixes and, in most cases, regular updates to keep up with changing IT environments. They may
include some degree of product enhancement, depending on the vendor. For some vendors, revenue from
support services may exceed revenue from licensed software. We include licensed software support in our
forecast.
Product-related
services
Product-related services are those services offered by the product supplier that directly support use of the
product, including configuration and installation support services. These are included in our forecast.
Other professional We exclude other professional services, such as systems integration, custom development, design
services
consulting and outsourced operations, from our forecast of the telecoms software market. However, these
are covered in Analysys Mason’s Infrastructure Solutions programme and forecast in detail in our Telecoms
software professional services: worldwide forecast 2011–2015 report. A summary of this forecast is provided
as an annex to this report.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Market definition
Billing segment and sub-segment definitions
Table 3: Definitions of the billing segment and its sub-segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Segment
Definition
Billing
Billing systems comprise the fundamental capabilities that enable CSPs to get paid for providing a wide array of
services. CSP billing systems give CSPs the ability to introduce new services, change prices, offer bundles,
share revenue with partners, detect problems, calculate taxes, evaluate credit risks, issue bills, collect payments
and handle many other fundamental revenue-related functions.
Sub-segment
Definition
Rating and
pricing
Rating and pricing systems are the major CSP billing systems. They handle the overall customer billing process.
This includes rating events, and combining the rated events with other aspects of a customer bill. Those other
aspects include recurring charges, taxes, fees and other items that may be due independent of rated usage.
Prepaid billing systems are not included, but the postpaid part of converged billing deployments is included.
Partner and
interconnect
Partner and interconnect solutions focus on payments to other service providers and collections from those
same service providers that co-operate in providing CSP customer service. This includes traditional voice
termination, both fixed and mobile. In includes roaming interconnection and interfaces (but does not include
roaming service bureaus per se). It includes international route optimisation, and settlements with traditional
network operator partners as well as content providers.
Business
optimisation
Business optimisation includes fraud, revenue assurance, analytics, cost management and credit risk
management. These are all factors that do not generate revenue directly, but ensure that the most revenue is
collected and least cost incurred, therefore maximising profit from the business.
Mediation
Mediation systems collect data from the network, format it and store it for specific usage. Most of this usage is
for billing systems, but some is for various types of service assurance. Despite this, we include all mediation in
this segment. This mediation segment does not include active mediation, which is included in the real-time
charging segment (covered in our Service Delivery Platform Strategies programme).
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Market definition
Customer care segment and sub-segment definitions
Table 4: Definitions of the customer care segment and its sub-segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Segment
Definition
Customer care Customer care systems allow CSPs to offer services, take orders and provide a full range of support, both
systems
human and automated, to their customers. CSPs have increased their spending on customer care systems and
operations during the past five years as customers have sought better service and CSPs have attempted
simultaneously to decrease call-centre costs and expensive customer churn.
Sub-segment
Definition
Customer
relationship
management
(CRM)
CRM encompasses the outbound marketing and sophisticated customer support functions. CRM software
allows CSPs to assemble large sets of data to manage their customer relationships more efficiently. It also helps
customer service agents and automated self-care systems to provide the best product and service offers for
established and new subscribers. It allows marketing departments to understand purchasing patterns and the
effectiveness of new product and service campaigns. CRM is the central repository of customer data that is
utilised by sales, marketing, customer service and finance groups. CRM includes independent product catalogue
offers and high-level order orchestration functions.
Subscriber
management
systems
Subscriber management encompasses the inbound customer support function that comes with billing software.
Subscriber management software is service-specific in the process of establishing customer set-up and handling
customer enquiries.
Customer
interaction
systems
Customer interaction software automates the initial point of contact between the customer and the CSP. This
sub-segment includes systems for IVR, web self-service, contact centres, points of sale, SMS and USSD
support and retail store management. Customer interaction software consists of machine-to-machine, person-toperson and person-to-machine communication.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Market definition
Service assurance segment and sub-segment definitions
Table 5: Definitions of the service assurance segment and its sub-segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Segment
Definition
Service
assurance
Service assurance components monitor the signalling and media network and collect events and performance
data from transport, access and customer premises equipment to provide network operators with overall network
performance, fault detection and troubleshooting capabilities.
Sub-segment
Definition
Service
management
Service management is best defined as the software systems that link customers with their own individual
services. Service management systems enable CSPs to generate granular reports by customer and service to
validate service-level commitments.
Fault and
event
management
Fault and event management systems interface with the network elements and element management systems
supplied by equipment manufacturers. They process millions of events per day, filtering downstream events in
order to isolate and attempt to pinpoint the cause of a problem.
Performance
monitoring
Performance monitoring systems collect a continuous set of circuit-switched and packet data from the network
elements and element management systems supplied by equipment manufacturers. They use SNMP polling,
TL1 and other protocols to communicate with network elements or domain-specific applications to collect realtime or historical data.
Workforce
automation
Workforce automation software helps CSPs to track incidents resulting from service disruption and to dispatch
field resources effectively. CSPs use centralised workforce automation software for complex problems that
require them to dispatch technicians. The software manages the process of opening job tickets, matching skill
sets, and co-ordinating the dispatch of technicians for planning and problem resolution.
Probe systems Probe systems are a combination of hardware and software. Hardware devices will be put into the network to
either passively monitor signalling and data sessions or remotely test specific types of technology.
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Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
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Market definition
Service fulfilment segment and sub-segment definitions
Table 6: Definitions of the service fulfilment segment and its sub-segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Segment
Definition
Service
fulfilment
Service fulfilment systems plan the future capacity and technology of the network, prepare the network to
provide service, and plan and implement the changes required in the network and services layer to support the
services as ordered by customers.
Sub-segment
Definition
Order
management
Order management systems control and report on the process of fulfilling service orders. Service orders may be
requests for new service, but they may also be removal of services, movement of an established service to a
new address or mobile device, or changes to an established service.
Inventory
management
Inventory management systems track the resources used to provide service and the physical and logical
configuration of the network to provide persistent services. They also control the assignment of the inventory to
specific uses, and design special arrangements to provide special services for specific users.
Activation
Activation systems automate the explicit commands to turn on a new service. They communicate with service
layer databases, network management systems, element management systems, or directly with network
elements.
Engineering
tools
Engineering tools encompasses a range of applications that help engineering departments to operate more
efficiently. These tools require a human interface. They include planning, equipment installation and
configuration, network optimisation, outside plant inventory, and design and diagnostic tools.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
23
Market definition
SDP segment and sub-segment definitions [1]
Table 7a: Definitions of the SDP segment and its sub-segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Segment
Definition
SDP
CSPs are purchasing SDP solutions to increase the speed of delivering new services to market and reduce
development costs. SDPs can be used to create new services, combine existing service enablers, deliver new
forms of content and enable access to service enablers for third parties. SDPs reduce the cost of service
creation by enabling IT platforms to access and control telecommunications infrastructure.
Sub-segment
Definition
Telecoms
application
servers (TAS)
TAS support telecoms service creation, execution and exposure, and network interfaces for call control,
messaging, location, presence and other telecoms services. They can be deployed in an IMS, SIP, VoIP, legacy
or hybrid environment. The TAS is at the core of creating and executing real-time, session-based services.
Approaches include: SIP Servlets, JAIN SLEE, evolved IN, next-generation feature servers, network and service
gateways, and proprietary solutions. Our market definition excludes legacy IN platforms.
Mobile content
management
and delivery
(MCMD)
MCMD supports the lifecycle of digital media from the collection of content from the content provider to its
delivery to the end customer. Typical media include: mobile applications, music, ringtones, games, video clips
and real-time sports information. MCMD includes the content provider portal, the customer portal, the
transcoding and adaptation of content for different device types and digital rights management.
Mobile device
management
(MDM)
The purpose of MDM is to ensure that the configuration and settings on a mobile device are optimal for the
subscribed services. It also supports remote troubleshooting. The Open Mobile Alliance’s (OMA’s) device
management standards are used to manage the diversity of mobile devices. In this sub-segment, we include all
spending by CSPs on MDM solutions except for device-based software. We exclude spending by device
manufacturers and enterprises on MDM solutions.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
24
Market definition
SDP segment and sub-segment definitions [2]
Table 7b: Definitions of the SDP segment and its sub-segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Sub-segment
Definition
Real-time
charging
(RTC)
RTC enables a service provider to manage the account balance for a subscriber’s service in real-time and deny
service if the account balance is negative. Increasingly, it also supports hierarchical accounts and complex policy
enforcement. In this segment, we include active mediation and complex real-time rating. Active mediation
interfaces with network and service platforms in real time to track usage and control access to a service.
Complex real-time rating tracks the usage and account data to determine account balance and account policies.
We do not include IN legacy platforms in this segment. We also exclude offline customer care and billing
systems.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
25
Market definition
NMS segment and sub-segment definitions
Table 8: Definitions of the NMS segment and its sub-segments [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
Segment
Definition
NMS
In NMS, we include the following software products: element management systems (EMSs), which interface
directly to a particular type of network equipment and provide a northbound interface and basic network
management functions; and domain managers or NMS, which interface with the EMS to provide network
management functions for different types of element in a given technology domain.
Sub-segment
Definition
Mobile NMS
Mobile NMS solutions can manage circuit-switched, packet-switched and multiple radio technology (such as
GSM, CDMA and W-CDMA) infrastructure. They provide the core OSS infrastructure for operating and
managing mobile network switching and network elements. This includes domain managers and EMS for packet
technology such as GPRS, EV-DO, EDGE, UMTS and LTE.
Business data
services NMS
Business data services NMS provide high service level metrics to large enterprise customers with complex
network services configurations and customisations. These are typically IP network services such as Internet
access, hosting services, IP VPN, Ethernet, managed IT services and wholesale carrier services. These NMS
solutions include both GUI and CLI management, which can be managed either centrally or distributed.
Residential
broadband
NMS
Residential broadband NMS manage residential network infrastructure such as DSL, cable, GPON and FTTx.
They provide a northbound interface, service assurance and service fulfilment systems for automating service
activation and configuration processes, primarily to meet the large subscriber demand. These NMS are evolving
because of new residential broadband (IP) service offerings that are becoming mainstream propositions, such as
IPTV and residential VoIP.
PSTN NMS
Legacy systems from equipment vendors meet the network management requirements for legacy PSTN
equipment and fixed circuit-switching technology. Most CSPs will keep them until they retire their PSTN
equipment and move to convergent NGN as a natural network evolution.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
26
Document map: Forecasts
Document map
Executive summary
Business environment
Market definition
Forecasts
Annex: Professional services forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
27
Forecasts: Service delivery platforms
Document map
Forecasts
Service delivery platforms
Billing
Customer care
Service fulfilment
Service assurance
Network management systems
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
28
Forecasts: Service delivery platforms
Worldwide service delivery platform forecast
Figure 7: Service delivery platform revenue, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

The worldwide service delivery platform (SDP)
market is forecast to grow from USD3.6 billion
in 2010 to USD6.3 billion in 2015, at a CAGR
of 11.7%.

In developed markets, the main driver for SDP
spending is the need to launch new services and
create new revenue streams in order to remain
competitive. Communications service providers
(CSPs) will invest in SDP solutions to enable new
business models that can adapt to changes in the
telecoms value chain.

These drivers also apply in emerging markets, but
high growth in subscriber numbers is the main
driver for SDP spending in these markets.

Growth in the take-up and usage of mobile data
services is a major factor in SDP spending
worldwide. New opportunities for CSPs, such as
M2M and cloud computing services, will also drive
investments.
7000
6305
6000
5651
Revenue (USD million)
5023
5000
4471
4000
3987
3629
3000
2000
1000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
29
Forecasts: Service delivery platforms
The growing dominance of Android and Apple ecosystems
in the content value chain will undermine spending on SDPs
Figure 8: Service delivery platform revenue by sub-segment,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

3000
Revenue (USD million)
2500
2000

1500
1000
500
0
Telecomsapplication
application
Telecoms
servers(CAGR
(CAGR11%)
11%)
servers
Mobile
content
Mobile
content
management
managementand
and
delivery(CAGR
(CAGR12%)
12%)
delivery
Mobile
device
Mobile device
management(CAGR
management
(CAGR10%)
10%)
Real-timecharging
charging
Real-time
(CAGR
12%)
(CAGR 12%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1610
1610
1770
1770
1978
1978
2213
2213
2485
2485
2766
2766
496
496
546
546
615
615
692
692
778
778
866
866
286
286
304
304
334
334
371
371
412
412
454
454
1238
1238
1368
1368
1545
1545
1747
1747
1977
1977
2218
2218
Telecoms application server (TAS) spending
will focus on prepaid enhancement and
session control, next-generation intelligent
networks (NGIN), service broker, new
enterprise and consumer services, and
service exposure.
Carriers’ application stores and traditional
mobile content will drive some growth in
mobile content management and delivery
(MCMD) spending. However, the growing
market presence of Apple, Google and other
over-the-top (OTT) value chains is limiting the
role of CSPs in developed markets.

Growth in mobile device management (MDM)
revenue is also expected to decline because
device manufacturers are offering
configuration services themselves.

Real-time charging (RTC) investment will
grow rapidly, driven by growth in subscriber
numbers, new requirements for mobile data
services and the replacement of legacy
intelligent network (IN) platforms.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
30
Forecasts: Service delivery platforms
Mobile services continue to be the primary focus for
SDP spending
Figure 9: Service delivery platform revenue by telecoms service,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

Mobile services account for most of the
investment in SDP projects, largely because
they are the largest source of revenue for
most CSPs and a primary focus for service
innovation.

SDP investment is motivated by a diverse
range of needs, but delivering new services
and enhancing established service layer
capabilities are the main drivers.

PSTN services are not a focus for innovation,
and the amount of spending that they attract
for SDP projects is declining rapidly.

Business services are a major focus for
innovation and are driving spending on TAS,
but not other SDP application areas.

Residential broadband is also a TAS
investment area. The underlying growth in
subscriber numbers is driving the high growth
in spending in this application area.
6000
Revenue (USD million)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2010
Mobile(CAGR
(CAGR 11%)
11%)
2942
Mobile
2942
PSTN
(CAGR
–19%)
64
PSTN (CAGR –19%)
64
Business
(CAGR
13%)
274
Business (CAGR 13%) 274
Residential broadband
broadband
Residential
350
350
(CAGR
17%)
(CAGR
17%)
2011
3203
3203
53
53
310
310
2012
3564
3564
40
40
356
356
2013
3997
3997
33
33
403
403
2014
4493
4493
25
25
452
452
2015
5013
5013
22
22
506
506
421
421
512
512
591
591
682
682
763
763
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
31
Forecasts: Service delivery platforms
Operators in developed and emerging markets are investing
in SDPs to support service innovation
Figure 10: Service delivery platform revenue by region, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

In North America (NA), SDP investment
will be driven by CSPs’ need for service and
pricing innovation, the growing popularity
of data services, growth in prepaid service
take-up and the roll-out of 4G services.

In Central and Latin America (CALA), a
combination of growth in subscriber numbers
and new services will drive SDP investment.

SDP investment in Europe, the Middle East
and Africa (EMEA) will be driven by the need
for service and pricing innovation. EMEA’s
emerging markets will also have strong
subscriber growth and the need to address
low-ARPU customers. The region’s
developed markets are similar to NA, but lack
the growth in prepaid service adoption.

In the Asia–Pacific (APAC) region, SDP
investment is growing rapidly in China, India
and other high-growth countries as a result
of growth in subscriber numbers, platform
replacement and a high rate of service
innovation.
2500
Revenue (SDP million)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
NA (CAGR 8%)
CALA (CAGR 15%)
EMEA (CAGR 8%)
APAC (CAGR 18%)
2010
723
311
1556
1039
2011
772
355
1649
1212
2012
835
416
1791
1430
2013
907
485
1939
1692
2014
978
557
2121
1996
2015
1043
633
2298
2331
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
32
Forecasts: Billing
Document map
Forecasts
Service delivery platforms
Billing
Customer care
Service fulfilment
Service assurance
Network management systems
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
33
Forecasts: Billing
Worldwide billing system forecast
Figure 11: Billing system revenue, worldwide, 2010–2015
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

The worldwide billing systems market is forecast to
grow from USD4.82 billion in 2010 to
USD5.98 billion in 2015, at a low CAGR of 4.4%.

The low growth is largely a result of limited
spending on postpaid billing solutions, which
represent over 60% of the forecast. The forecast
does not include prepaid billing1 or the real-time
aspects of converged billing solutions.2

Spending on postpaid billing systems is not
experiencing the same dynamic growth as prepaid
billing systems.

New services such as policy-based billing, cloud
computing and M2M offerings will drive growth in
the mid- and longer-term. These services will have
an increasing impact towards the end of the
forecast period.
7
5.98
6
5.69
Revenue (USD billion)
5.41
5
4.82
4.97
5.16
4
3
2
1
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1
Prepaid billing systems will be added to the forecast in 2012.
2
We cover these high-growth areas in the real-time charging (RTC)
sub-segment of our SDP coverage. We do not include RTC revenue in
our overall billing revenue figure. It is included in our SDP forecast.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
34
Forecasts: Billing
Business optimisation will be the fastest-growing
sub-segment
Figure 12: Billing system revenue by sub-segment, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

Rating and pricing are the core of postpaid
billing platforms. Given the economic climate,
communications service providers (CSPs)
have lost their appetite for large-scale
transformational projects for convergent
billing systems.

Mediation, which does not include active
mediation, closely follows the rating and
pricing segment.

CSPs are launching more-complex services,
driving the number of partner settlement
management system deployments. Growth in
mobile roaming will also increase spend in
emerging markets.

Business optimisation is showing the highest
growth, driven by a shift to commercial
platforms to replace in-house developments
for fraud management, revenue assurance
and analytics.
4000
Revenue (USD million)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Rating and pricing
(CAGR 3.3%)
Mediation
(CAGR 1.8%)
Partner and interconnect
(CAGR 7.6%)
Business optimisation
(CAGR 8.2%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
3061
3131
3224
3336
3462
3598
536
540
547
557
572
585
468
487
513
561
615
676
757
808
871
953
1041
1125
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
35
Forecasts: Billing
Mobile services continue to account for the majority
of spending on billing systems
Figure 13: Billing system revenue by telecoms service, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

4000
Revenue (USD million)
3500
3000

2500
2000
1500
The business services market will grow,
driven by the increased demand for cloudbased services, M2M applications and other
new business models.

The residential broadband market will
continue to enjoy growth, as subscriber
numbers increase particularly in emerging
markets, and increased numbers of videobased services.
500
Mobile
(CAGR 6.6%)
PSTN
(CAGR –10.3%)
Business
(CAGR 8.6%)
Residential broadband
(CAGR 5.7%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2651
2871
3028
3247
3436
3653
912
834
758
665
591
528
428
454
493
544
595
647
1080
1137
1199
1265
1341
1425
PSTN’s share will decline at a CAGR of
–10.3% as CSPs focus on reducing the cost
of supporting PSTN subscribers and retiring
older systems.

1000
0
Spending on mobile billing will grow at a 6.6%
CAGR, driven by growth in the number of
postpaid subscribers in emerging markets.
The need to support mobile broadband is
driving spend in developed markets.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
36
Forecasts: Billing
Emerging markets continue to have the highest growth rate
for investment in billing systems
Figure 14: Billing system revenue by region, worldwide, 2010–2015
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

In NA, almost every Tier 1 CSP has
implemented a major billing system.
Maintaining these systems will dominate
spend. Further spending is driven by cost
reductions and potentially new services that
will require new systems.

In CALA, the dominance of prepaid services
limits postpaid billing opportunities, but
continued growth in subscriber numbers and
the need to automate operations will drive
business optimisation projects.

Subscriber numbers are growing in Africa and
the Middle East, but this is more than offset
by saturation in developed European
markets. Business optimisation and partner
interconnect system deployments will
contribute to modest growth in the EMEA
region.

In APAC, growth will continue, driven by rapid
growth in subscriber numbers.
2500
Revenue (USD million)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
NA (CAGR 3.0%)
CALA (CAGR 5.9%)
EMEA (CAGR 3.7%)
APAC (CAGR 6.7%)
2010
1430
331
1891
1171
2011
1477
348
1922
1220
2012
1519
366
1987
1283
2013
1569
390
2068
1380
2014
1613
414
2163
1498
2015
1654
442
2272
1616
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
37
Forecasts: Customer care
Document map
Forecasts
Service delivery platforms
Billing
Customer care
Service fulfilment
Service assurance
Network management systems
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
38
Forecasts: Customer care
Worldwide customer care system forecast
Figure 15: Customer care system revenue, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

The worldwide customer care software market is
forecast to grow from USD2.3 billion in 2010 to
USD3.5 billion in 2015, at a CAGR of 8.4%.

The overall customer care software market has
returned to near its pre-2008 growth rate as CSPs
invest in software that is proved to increase revenue.

In 2011–2013, growth in the customer care
software market will be driven by: increasing
competition in all markets, which will drive higher
levels of customer service; the push towards
instant availability of complex service bundles; the
need for uniform product offerings and shopping
carts across channels; deregulation of broadband
and mobile services in emerging markets; and the
increasing investment to meet the needs of SMEs.
4000
3463
3500
3110
3000
2836
Revenue (USD million)
2631
2500
2458
2316
2000
1500
1000

500
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
After 2013, growth will also be driven by CSPs’
need dramatically to reduce their cost structures,
new ‘double-sided’ business offerings, cloud
computing and storage services, M2M customer
care, and renewed interest in convergence projects.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
39
Forecasts: Customer care
CRM and customer interaction revenue grow strongly, while
subscriber management will grow with the billing market
Figure 16: Customer care system revenue by sub-segment,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

CRM system revenue will grow strongly in
emerging markets, while the new functions
of master catalogues and enterprise order
control will contribute to growth in mature,
and later emerging, markets.

Suppliers will continue to deliver and support
subscriber management software as part of
billing projects. Towards the end of the
forecast period, double-sided business
models will require new subscriber
management functions, and CSP-provided
SaaS, PaaS and IaaS offerings will also
require new support, which will drive growth.
1800
1600
Revenue (USD million)
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400

200
0
CRM (CAGR 10.2%)
Subscriber management
(CAGR 4.4%)
Customer interaction
(CAGR 9.0%)
2010
1060
2011
1139
2012
1237
2013
1357
2014
1518
2015
1719
625
650
678
705
738
775
631
668
716
773
854
968
CSPs’ need to reduce costs and meet
consumer demand for control, on-demand
information and instant service will drive
investment in customer self-service
operations. Customer interaction will continue
to be the second-largest sub-segment, thanks
to growth in revenue from IVR technology,
which provides enhanced automated
attendant functions.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
40
Forecasts: Customer care
Mobile will continue to dominate, but business and
residential broadband will continue to grow
Figure 17: Customer care system revenue by telecoms service,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

2500
Revenue (USD million)
2000

1500
1000

500
0
Mobile (CAGR 10.2%)
PSTN (CAGR –2.8%)
Business (CAGR 9.7%)
Residential broadband
(CAGR 10.7%)
2010
1278
417
152
2011
1382
401
165
2012
1512
377
177
2013
1665
358
190
2014
1840
358
212
2015
2080
362
241
469
510
565
623
700
781

Growth will continue in the mobile market,
as CSPs compete for customers, ARPU and
margin. The increasing complexity and
number of services and bundles requires
more-complex inbound and outbound
customer care operations.
PSTN’s share of the market will decline to
10% in 2015. Incumbent CSPs will make
some investments in self-care towards the
end of the forecast period, as they focus on
cutting the cost of supporting PSTN users.
The business services market will grow in
revenue and market share, driven by CSPs’
increasing focus on the SME market for IPbased communications, CSPs’ SaaS
offerings, M2M and cloud computing services.
Double-sided business models will also drive
new customer care systems and features.
The residential broadband market’s
strong growth will continue, as CSPs provide
more-complex service bundles and move
increasingly towards self-care.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
41
Forecasts: Customer care
All regions will grow, as CSPs in mature markets offer new
services and competition increases in emerging markets
Figure 18: Customer care system revenue by region, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

In North America, the need to support new
services and reduce costs, and to focus on
SMEs, home networking, and cloud and
SaaS services will drive modest growth.

The CALA market will grow, but from a small
base, as CSPs continue to compete more.

The EMEA region combines mature and
emerging markets. The mature markets, in
Western Europe, will grow at the same rate
as those in North America. The emerging
markets, in Eastern Europe, Russia, the
Middle East and selected African countries,
will enjoy more-rapid growth as CSPs attempt
to reduce opex as the number, complexity
and data volume of mobile services on offer
increases, driven by competition.

The APAC market is dominated by the
growing telecoms markets of China and India,
but dampened by the mature market in
Japan. It will experience substantial growth as
CSPs compete more and offer increasingly
complex services and service bundles.
1400
Revenue (USD million)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
NA (CAGR 6.9%)
CALA (CAGR 11.9%)
EMEA (CAGR 7.5%)
APAC (CAGR 11.2%)
2010
810
130
890
487
2011
843
144
936
534
2012
890
159
990
591
2013
951
178
1054
653
2014
1030
201
1149
731
2015
1129
229
1279
827
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
42
Forecasts: Service fulfilment
Document map
Forecasts
Service delivery platforms
Billing
Customer care
Service fulfilment
Service assurance
Network management systems
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
43
Forecasts: Service fulfilment
Worldwide service fulfilment system forecast
Figure 19: Service fulfilment system revenue, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

The worldwide service fulfilment system market
is forecast to grow from USD2.3 billion in 2010
to USD3.4 billion in 2015, at a CAGR of 8.6%.

The overall service fulfilment market will return to
somewhat less than its pre-2008 growth rate by
mid-2012 assuming normal worldwide economic
growth returns and no ‘double-dip’ recession.

In the short term, growth in the service fulfilment
system market will be driven by network evolution
towards optical/packet technology, the desire for
instant availability of complex service bundles, the
need to operate in uncertain and changing
business environments, deregulation of broadband
and mobile services in emerging markets and the
increasing desire to meet the needs of SMEs.

In the long term, growth will also be driven by the
new double-sided business offerings of CSPs,
M2M mobile services, cloud computing and
storage services, potential national broadband
infrastructure investment projects and renewed
interest in system convergence projects.
4000
3491
3500
3157
2882
3000
Revenue (USD million)
2650
2500
2473
2308
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
44
Forecasts: Service fulfilment
Order management, inventory management and activation
systems will continue their growth, providing flow-through
Figure 20: Service fulfilment system revenue by sub-segment,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

Many operators are buying order
management, inventory management and
activation systems together in a single suite,
accounting for about 2/3 of the market.

CSPs are adding activation of additional
services to existing service fulfilment stacks,
driving growth.

Most pricing structures for service fulfilment
systems are size-based, so the service
fulfilment market grows with the overall
telecoms market base and usage.

Many order management products are also
used for order orchestration, which is part of
customer care, and not counted here.

The network planning and optimisation
portion of the engineering tools sub-segment
will grow at a 7.2% CAGR – a higher rate
than that of the other elements in this
sub-segment.
1200
Revenue (USD million)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Order management
(CAGR 8.4%)
Inventory management
(CAGR 8.3%)
Activation (CAGR 11.3%)
Engineering tools (CAGR
6.4%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
586
615
656
714
787
877
663
705
753
813
893
991
517
578
637
715
796
884
542
575
605
640
682
739
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
45
Forecasts: Service fulfilment
The mobile and business service segments will grow the
fastest, but residential broadband will still be the largest
Figure 21: Service fulfilment system revenue by telecoms service,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

1400
Revenue (USD million)
1200

The PSTN market will continue its long-term
decline. It will account for only 6% of the total
market in 2015.

The business services market will grow in
size and market share, driven by CSPs’
increasing focus on the business-to-business
(B2B) and small or medium-sized enterprise
(SME) markets for IP-based communications
as well as SaaS, PaaS and IaaS.

Residential broadband will maintain its
share of the market as the focus shifts from
providing xDSL-based data services to
supporting FTTx infrastructure, IPTV
and other IP-based residential
communications and software services.
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mobile (CAGR 11.4%)
PSTN (CAGR –6.9%)
Business (CAGR 11.2%)
Residential broadband
(CAGR 9.0%)
2010
630
316
575
2011
693
303
629
2012
772
271
680
2013
869
252
748
2014
987
233
853
2015
1080
222
979
787
847
926
1014
1084
1210
Mobile service fulfilment’s share of the market
will grow from 28% to 31%, mostly at the
expense of the PSTN market.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
46
Forecasts: Service fulfilment
Emerging markets will achieve the highest growth, while
developed markets, especially Western Europe, will lag
Figure 22: Service fulfilment system revenue by region, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

In NA, modest growth will be driven by the
addition of IPTV and other ‘over-the-top’
services, the focus on SMEs, and on
reserving and provisioning cloud services.

The CALA market will grow at a high CAGR
(at 14%) but from a small base as CSPs
modernise their fulfilment stacks and
implement activation for additional services.

EMEA combines mature and emerging
telecoms markets. Western Europe will grow
slower than North America. Emerging
markets in Eastern Europe, Russia, the
Middle East and African countries, will
experience more-rapid growth as CSPs try to
reduce opex as the number, complexity and
data volume of mobile services and offers
increases, driven by competition.

APAC is dominated by the growing telecoms
markets of China and India and dampened by
the mature market in Japan. This region will
experience substantial growth.
1400
Revenue (USD million)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
NA (CAGR 6.9%)
CALA (CAGR 13.6%)
EMEA (CAGR 8.0%)
APAC (CAGR 11.6%)
2010
872
128
905
403
2011
949
150
937
437
2012
1009
171
986
484
2013
1073
194
1074
542
2014
1140
217
1188
613
2015
1219
243
1333
697
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
47
Forecasts: Service assurance
Document map
Forecasts
Service delivery platforms
Billing
Customer care
Service fulfilment
Service assurance
Network management systems
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
48
Forecasts: Service assurance
Worldwide service assurance forecast
Figure 23: Service assurance revenue, worldwide, 2010–2015
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

The worldwide service assurance market is
forecast to grow from USD2.4 billion in 2010
to USD3.5 billion in 2015, at a CAGR of 8%.

Spending in the sector remains weak for workforce
automation and fault management – both of which
are mature sub-segments of the market.

Asia–Pacific (APAC) will outperform other regions,
as demand in China and India outpaces other
countries and communications service providers
(CSPs) make the transition from in-house software
development to commercial products.

Mobile services account for the largest share of
spending, largely to support data services, and will
continue to be the fastest-growing area.

LTE and carrier Ethernet network deployments will
contribute to spending in the probe and
performance monitoring sub-segments.

Service management spending declined last year,
but we expect growth to accelerate as customer
experience projects take hold in 2011.
4000
3490
3500
3232
2977
3000
Revenue (USD million)
2727
2519
2500
2374
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
49
Forecasts: Service assurance
The next wave of technology upgrades is driving growth
in the service assurance market
Figure 24: Service assurance revenue by sub-segment, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

Carrier Ethernet, IP-MPLS and LTE access
network deployments will have a positive
impact on probe system investments. These
will increase from USD933 million in 2010 to
USD1.33 billion in 2015, at a CAGR of 7%.

Following a pause in investments last year,
we expect the service management market
to grow at a CAGR of 13%.

The fault and event management sub-segment
is mature. We forecast that spending in this
area will grow at a CAGR of 6%, as CSPs
invest to support demands for multi-domain
cross-correlation and problem isolation.

Performance monitoring revenue will grow at
a 9% CAGR as a result of the growth in
mobile data services and new business
models, such as cloud computing.

Workforce automation revenue will grow at a
CAGR of 7%, led by residential broadband
video deployments.
1400
Revenue (USD million)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Probe systems (CAGR
7.4%)
Fault and event
management (CAGR
6.1%)
Service management
(CAGR 13.0%)
Performance monitoring
(CAGR 9.4%)
Workforce automation
(CAGR 6.8%)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
933
989
1077
1171
1256
1330
492
518
551
591
627
662
233
254
282
322
372
430
411
443
486
533
586
643
305
314
332
360
391
424
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
50
Forecasts: Service assurance
Automation of workflow process in the testing and service
deployment phases is generating strong demand
Figure 25: Service assurance revenue by telecoms service,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

LTE deployments will drive investments in
mobile service assurance in 2012, which will
generate USD1.9 billion in revenue in 2015.

CSPs will deploy IP and Ethernet technology
more extensively to support more-flexible and
cost-efficient and backhaul technologies.

Innovations in the loopback testing phase of
next-generation technology is dramatically
reducing operational cost. Some case studies
point to an 80% improvement in service
readiness following activation.

New business models, such as cloud and
M2M, will require more-sophisticated event
suppression and correlation for CSPs to
understand service impact.
2000
1800
Revenue (USD million)
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Mobile (CAGR 11.6%)
PSTN (CAGR –9.3%)
Business (CAGR 6.0%)
Residential broadband
(CAGR 10.2%)
2010
1084
357
440
2011
1195
332
463
2012
1348
306
490
2013
1514
279
528
2014
1686
251
553
2015
1879
219
589
493
530
584
656
741
802
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
51
Forecasts: Service assurance
A focus on workforce efficiency is driving investments in
mature telecoms services in North America and Europe
Figure 26: Service assurance revenue by region, worldwide,
2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

In North America (NA), projects that aim to
reduce opex will drive growth in service
assurance investments. Backhaul monitoring
will continue to be important during the next
two years.

Growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa
(EMEA) will come from the increase in
subscriber numbers in Africa, Eastern Europe
and the Middle East. Western European
projects will focus on opex reduction.

Revenue in APAC will grow at an 11%
CAGR, driven by new mobile licence awards
and the deployment of large optical national
broadband networks, thanks to the relatively
low labour costs in the region.

In Central and Latin America (CALA),
spending will grow at an 8% CAGR, driven by
broadband services in Brazil and Mexico and
the growth of mobile services across the
region as a whole.
1400
Revenue (USD million)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
NA (CAGR 6.6%)
NA
(CAGR
6.6%)
CALA
(CAGR
8.2%)
CALA
(CAGR
8.2%)
EMEA (CAGR 8.2%)
EMEA
(CAGR 11.0%)
8.2%)
APAC (CAGR
APAC (CAGR 11.0%)
201
2010
0
969
969
126
126
933
933
347
347
201
2011
1
1025
1025
133
133
989
989
371
371
201
2012
2
1101
1101
145
145
1071
1071
411
411
201
2013
3
1180
1180
157
157
1175
1175
465
465
201
2014
4
1257
1257
172
172
1280
1280
523
523
201
2015
5
1332
1332
187
187
1386
1386
584
584
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
52
Forecasts: Network management systems
Document map
Forecasts
Service delivery platforms
Billing
Customer care
Service fulfilment
Service assurance
Network management systems
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
53
Forecasts: Network management systems
Worldwide network management systems forecast
Figure 27: Network management systems revenue,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

The worldwide network management systems
market is forecast to grow from USD4.4 billion in
2010 to USD6.0 billion in 2015, a CAGR of 6.4%.

LTE roll-outs will drive accelerated growth in
network management systems revenue in NA and
developed markets in APAC until 2013, and a
sustained, lower growth rate later in the forecast
period.

Growth will return to the network management
systems market during the forecast period as a
result of economic recovery and deployments of
new network technologies and IP services.

European CSPs will continue to have cost controls
in place, which will restrict investment in network
equipment and network management systems
during 2012.

Investments in packet technologies, IP services
and cloud computing will drive growth in the
business services and residential broadband
markets.
7000
6014
6000
5703
5400
5013
Revenue (USD million)
5000
4647
4410
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
54
Forecasts: Network management systems
Fixed and mobile broadband technologies and services will
drive growth in mobile and residential broadband
Figure 28: Network management systems revenue by telecoms
service, worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

Mobile will be the fastest-growing segment.
LTE will be the main driver of this growth.
CSPs will stretch the lifespan of HSPA+ (3G),
but the technology will eventually give way to
LTE (4G).

The residential broadband segment will grow
at a 6.2% CAGR, as roll-outs of optical
national broadband networks (NBNs) and
small-cell technologies increase, displacing
xDSL.

Ongoing LTE and NBN investments will
accelerate the growth rate until 2013, after
which the growth rate will decline.

Business services revenue will grow at a
5.9% CAGR. Mobile backhaul, IP and cloud
services will drive investment in DWDM,
IP/MPLS, IMS and metro-Ethernet.
3500
Revenue (USD million)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Mobile (CAGR 6.9%)
Business (CAGR 5.9%)
Residential broadband
(CAGR 6.2%)
PSTN (CAGR –11.9%)
2010
2339
1286
2011
2473
1350
2012
2690
1434
2013
2907
1552
2014
3082
1636
2015
3271
1715
745
788
856
912
961
1007
40
37
33
29
25
21

PSTN revenue will decline at a –11.9%
CAGR. These systems are in maintenance
mode, giving way to IP network management
systems.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
55
Document map: Annex: Professional services forecast
Document map
Executive summary
Business environment
Market definition
Forecasts
Annex: Professional services forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
56
Annex: Professional services forecast
The roll-out of new network technologies in emerging
markets will drive revenue growth in all segments
Figure 29: Network management systems revenue by region,
worldwide, 2010–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]

3G is regarded as a new technology in
emerging markets such as India. 4G roll-outs
in developed markets, and xPON and FTTx
roll-outs in emerging markets, will continue.

APAC will have the highest CAGR (7.0%)
driven by the roll-out of new mobile networks
and large optical NBNs, which are viable
because of the relatively low labour costs in
the region.

CALA will have a 6.6% CAGR, driven by new
mobile licence awards in Costa Rica and the
opening of the IPTV market in Brazil.

NA will achieve a 6.0% CAGR, driven mainly
by investments in LTE, small-cell technology
and backhaul. Growth will slow after 2014,
when the initial wave of competitive network
investments has passed.

EMEA will grow at a 6% CAGR, driven by the
roll-out of networks in emerging markets and
new technologies (LTE, femtocells, Wi-Fi,
IPTV and FTTx) in developed markets.
2500
Revenue (USD million)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
NA (CAGR 6.0%)
CALA (CAGR 6.6%)
EMEA (CAGR 6.0%)
APAC (CAGR 7.0%)
2010
1003
340
1441
1625
2011
1089
349
1501
1707
2012
1182
367
1633
1831
2013
1242
394
1789
1976
2014
1292
425
1861
2125
2015
1341
468
1929
2277
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
57
Document map: About the authors and Analysys Mason
Document map
Executive summary
Business environment
Market definition
Forecasts
Annex: Professional services forecast
About the authors and Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
58
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Authors [1]
Patrick Kelly (Research Director) leads Analysys Mason’s Telecoms Software research stream, which focuses
on identifying the rapidly growing segments in the telecoms software market and providing forecast and market
share data on each of the 26 segments by region and service type. He has produced research on IP nextgeneration service assurance, the 3G mobile software market and customer experience management. Patrick
is a frequent speaker at industry conferences. He holds a BSc from the University of Vermont, and an MBA
from Plymouth College.
Peter Mottishaw (Principal Analyst) is lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Service Delivery Platform Strategies
and Billing research programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include real-time charging and converged
billing systems, billing strategies and policy management for mobile data services. Peter has 20 years’
experience in the communications industry in research, software development and marketing. He has held
senior positions in Agilent Technologies and Hewlett-Packard. Peter holds a BSc and PhD in Physics from
Imperial College, London and an MBA from Edinburgh Business School. He is located in Edinburgh, Scotland.
Mark H. Mortensen (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Customer Care and Service
Fulfilment research programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include customer self-care, IT asset
management and CMDBs and enterprise order control and master catalogues. The first 20 years of Mark’s
career were spent at Bell Laboratories, where he specialised in starting software products for new markets and
network technologies and in the interaction of software with the underlying network hardware. Mark was Chief
Scientist of Management Systems at Bell Labs, and has also been president of his own OSS strategy
consulting company, CMO at the inventory specialist Granite Systems, VP of Product Strategy at Telcordia
Technologies, and SVP of Marketing at the network planning software vendor VPIsystems. Mark holds an
MPhil and a PhD in physics from Yale University and has received two AT&T Architecture awards for
innovative software solutions. He is also an adjunct faculty member of UMass Lowell in the College of
Management.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
59
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Authors [2]
Glen Ragoonanan (Senior Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Infrastructure Solutions
research programme. He joined Analysys Mason in 2008 and has worked as a consultant on projects on nextgeneration IT and telecoms networks, systems and technologies for incumbents, new entrants,
private companies, regulators and public-sector clients. His primary areas of specialisation include operations
and business support systems (OSS/BSS) solution architecture and integration for business process reengineering, business process optimisation, business continuity planning, procurement and outsourcing
operations and strategies. Before joining Analysys Mason, Glen worked for Fujitsu, designing, delivering and
managing integrated solutions. Glen is a Chartered Engineer and project management professional with an
MSc from Coventry University.
Justin van der Lande (Senior Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Billing research programme,
which is part of the Telecoms Software research stream. His primary areas of specialisation include converged
billing systems, billing strategies and business analytics for mobile data services. He also provides project
management for large-scale projects within our Telecoms Software research. Justin has more than 20 years’
experience in the communications industry in software development, marketing and research. He has held
senior positions at NCR/AT&T, Micromuse (IBM), Granite Systems (Telcordia) and at the TM Forum. Justin
holds a BSc in Management Science and Computer Studies from the University of Wales. He is located in the
London office.
Dean Ramsay (Analyst) is an Analyst in Analysys Mason’s Telecoms Software research team, consolidating
output across the seven telecoms software research programmes. He has 12 years’ experience in the
telecoms industry working in operations and service delivery with major Tier 1 and more-niche Tier 2 carriers,
focusing on order management, revenue management and service delivery systems. Dean joined Analysys
Mason in 2011 following two years working as an analyst in the mobile sector. Dean holds a BA in English from
Anglia Ruskin University.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2011
Telecoms software: worldwide forecast 2011–2015
60
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Copyright
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The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only.
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About the authors and Analysys Mason
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About the authors and Analysys Mason
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About the authors and Analysys Mason
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