Transcript the Presentation

Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
The Future
of the Internet
ARMA Calgary
February 10, 2010
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Yogi Schulz
Biography
 Partner in Corvelle Consulting
 Information technology related management
consulting
 Microsoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio host
 PPDM Association board member
 Industry presenter:
–
–
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Project World - 5 years
CIPS Informatics - 7 years
PMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 years
Convergence - 4 years
PPDM Association - several years
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The Future of the Internet
at various points in the past
 Secure communication system for US political
and military leaders during nuclear war
 System to conduct business
 Cheap, fast, shared communication system
for everyone
Estonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategy

A whole
new media channel
against
"cyber-terrorists"
today after suspected
Russian
launched
a third

Systemhackers
to improve
social
life wave of attacks
on leading government, banking and

Basiswebsites
for warfare
media
this week.
19 May 2007
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Cyber War:
Sabotaging the System
• Brazilian disruption of
electrical power
networks initiated by
hackers
• China Expands
Cyberspying in U.S.
• The New E-spionage
Threat
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Close to
Home
“Great news, Mrs. Janoski!
We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgery
on YouTube,
AndConcepts
it’s tocurrently
ranked second!”
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Completion
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Evolution from Web 1.0
to Web 2.0
Web 1.0
End-user input
Mostly text content
Internet
Web 2.0
End-user generated content
Multi-media content
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Increasing Online Sales
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Number of Web Sites
on the Web
World Wide Web map
Over 72 million active sites
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The Future of the Internet
Outline
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Social computing will expand to business
Internet access will be ubiquitous
The Web will become faster
The Web will become smarter
Security will improve
IT products will morph into services
Recommendations
Questions & Answers
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Social Computing
Survey
 created a personal profile on
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Facebook, MySpace, Second Life?
played FarmVille?
written personal blog entries?
written a review at Amazon?
posted pictures at Flickr?
posted video at YouTube?
produced content for the Web?
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Daily Weblog Postings
Daily Weblog Postings
1.4 million posts per day
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New Hobbies
on the Internet
Isn’t it truly amazing
how a day after Matthew
takes off his shirt, we
can all enjoy it?
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
How did anyone
survive before the
Internet?
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The future of Social Networks
 Companies:
– operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channels
– offer chat to customers
– host discussion forums
 Individuals:
– stay in touch with family & friends
– promote causes
– participate in political action
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Internet Access
Survey
 abandoned phones for VOIP?
 used wireless access at Starbucks?
 found Internet access in remote
corners of the world?
 mooched Internet access from
an open WiFi access point?
 surfed the Web using a phone?
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Internet
Everywhere
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T-Mobile HotSpot @Home
 + $ 20.00 per month
 In a Wi-Fi wireless
Internet hot spot,
all your calls are free
 Phone hands off
your calls from
Wi-Fi network to cell network
seamlessly and automatically
Novatel MiFi
 Includes a wireless router for your home
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PCs vs. Cell Phones
Projected Shipments
Over 700 million phones
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Internet-Capable
Cell Phones
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Chinese Information
Highway
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Revenge of the PCs?
Netbook
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The Future of Internet Access
 Internet 2
 Cable/ADSL
 Rural Internet
 Satellite services
 Municipal WiFi
 Device convergence
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Faster Web
Survey
 waited and waited for web pages to load?
 noticed significant variability when loading
the same web page?
 rented movies because the download time
takes hours?
 abandoned an online purchase because the
hour glass stayed on forever?
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Internet speed by country
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The Future of Internet Speed
 Internet 2
 Faster web browsers
 Higher speed Cable/ADSL
 Higher speed cell phone network
 Higher speed in-home network
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Smarter Web
Survey
 not found what you were searching for?
 failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before?
 become tired of typing the same personal
information over and over and over?
 received unexpected/embarrassing pages in
the results set?
 found exactly what you were looking for; only
it’s in Chicago?
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Web Services will
connect organizations
 Mobile agents
 RosettaNet
WS-Trust
WS-Security
Web Services Interoperability
WS-MetadataExchange
WS-Addressing
WS-Eventing
WS-ServiceGroup
WS-BaseFaults
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 ebXML
 UDDI
 WS-<alphabet
soup>
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The Future Semantic Web
Web characteristic Today
Future
Search evaluation
String
matching
Contextual
understanding
Content importance
PageRank End-user tagging
Automated ranking
Personal profiles
Limited,
Sporadic
Richer
More consistent
Spatial awareness
Limited
Integrated GPS
Multi-application
integration
Nonexistent
Noticeable through
XML
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Security
Survey
 actually produced a disaster recovery plan
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after deferring the work for many years?
been hesitant about creating a profile?
a paper shredder in use at home?
their social security number with them?
their password written on a sticky note?
a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware
installed at home?
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The Future of Security
 Biometric identification:
 Technical identification:
 Less total freedom to be irresponsible:
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Software &
Hardware Survey
 implemented virtualization technology
 contracted for on-demand
server computing?
 used open source software?
 installed OpenOffice?
 developed software
through crowdsourcing?
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IT products will morph into services
Software as a Service
 Open source software
 Pay for software usage by the month
Qbyte
online
 Web-accessible office software
 IT infrastructure management
Java
Enterprise
System
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IT products will morph into services
Hardware as a Service
 Commodity computing
 Service oriented architecture
 Cluster
 Grid
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What will the future of the Internet
mean to business?
 Enhance distributed collaboration
 Enhance supply chain performance
 Improve work/life balance
 Improve integration of field and
head office business processes
 Address the potential of
knowledge management
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Conclusions
 The future of the Internet
will surprise us
 We tend to underestimate the pace of
progress in technology
 We tend to over-estimate
the pace at which people
are prepared to adopt
technology
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Keeping
Up
Don’t languish behind,
The Internet offers
many possibilities!
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Recommendations
 Monitor Internet technology developments
 Experiment using emerging Web services
 Match technology to business problems and
opportunities
 Pilot Web services in modest ways
 Don’t over-commit
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Questions & Answers
Elroy will
explain it
to you
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Future of the Internet
Yogi Schulz
Partner of Corvelle Consulting
Information technology related
management consulting
Microsoft Canada columnist
& CBC Radio host
Industry presenter
PPDM Association board member
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Corvelle Consulting
700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W.
Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V7
Phone: (403) 249-5255
E-mail:
[email protected]
Web: www.corvelle.com
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Man – Computer
Integration
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Software
Development
Survey
 searched for Open Source software
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
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components?
contemplated installing the Compiere
Open Source ERP software application?
read about the Open Source Website
Content Management System?
participated in an Open Source
community?
considered an open source application?
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Software development will rely
heavily on module re-use
 Microsoft modules
 Java modules
 Applications built
on tools
 Reducing what
developers have to
code
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Supplemental Slides
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Top 10 Sites
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Mobile Web-surfing
Growth
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Websites
visited after
Twitter
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Top-10 Malware Sites
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Internet speed by country
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Number of Weblogs
Number of Weblogs
Over 70 million blogs
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USA Holiday
Online Spending
2009 Holiday Season vs. 2008
Non-Travel Retail Spending
Source: comScore, Inc.
November 1 – December 24
Millions ($)
2008
2009
$25,845 $27,121
Percent
Change
5%
Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26)
$288
$318
10%
Black Friday (Nov. 27)
$534
$595
11%
Cyber Monday (Nov. 30)
$834
$887
5%
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Web Search
Activity Share
Search Entity
Google Sites
Share of Searches (%)
October Novembe Point
2009
r 2009 Change
65.4%
65.6%
0.2
Yahoo! Sites
18.0%
17.5%
-0.5
Microsoft Sites
9.9%
10.3%
0.4
Ask Network
3.9%
3.8%
-0.1
AOL Network
2.9%
2.8%
-0.1
100.0%
100.0%
N/A
Total Search
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Future of
electronic books
Amazon
KindleMSI Dual screen slate
Sony
Barnes & Noble
Apple iPAD ereader
Nook
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Bibliography - 1

A Brief History of the World Wide Web
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A Little History of the World Wide Web
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The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003
www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303
Eight business technology trends to watch
–
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Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14
Digital dilemmas
–
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www.classmatepc.com/index.html
Creative Licensing
–
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et.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.html
Classmate PC by Intel
–
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www.w3.org/History.html
Biometric Identification
–
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www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Eight_business_technology_trends_to_wat
ch_2080?gp=1
Electrolux Screenfridge
–
www.electrolux.com/screenfridge
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Bibliography - 2
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Future of the Internet and Web
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Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit
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www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline
How the internet has woven itself into American life
–
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www.isoc.org/internet/history
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_history
www.let.leidenuniv.nl/history/ivh/frame_theorie.html
Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0
–
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Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004
www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631
Histories of the Internet
–
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www.cs.purdue.edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb.html
www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/148/report_display.asp
How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle
–
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John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003
www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur
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Bibliography - 3
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IBM - Capacity on demand
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IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business
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www.isoc.org
Internet2
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www.isoc.org/internet/history
Internet Society
–
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www.slb.com/content/services/software/virtual
Internet histories
–
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Internet News, January 23, 2007
www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3655391
www-142.ibm.com/software/sw-lotus/products/product3.nsf/wdocs/connections
Inside Reality - Improve collaborative decision making
–
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www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/
www.internet2.edu
IPhone-Free Cellphone News
–
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By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007
www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/technology/circuits/05pogue.html?ex=1186459200&en=45706190e
9cee2fb&ei=5070
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Bibliography - 4

Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet
–
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NASA Research and Education Network (NREN)
–
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http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html
Rich Internet application
–
–
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laptop.org
Pattie Maes and Pranav Mistry demo SixthSense
–
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www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004,00.html
One Laptop per Child (OLPC)
–
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www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.html
On-Demand Computing
–
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www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Internet_application
www.adobe.com/devnet/ria/
theopensourcery.com/xmlria.htm
Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model
–
www.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/
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Bibliography - 5

Taming the World Wide Web
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A rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find
connections between disparate pieces of online data
by Rachael King
www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2007/tc20070409_248062.htm?chan=search
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Bibliography - 6

Utility Computing
–
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Unveiling the genius of multi-touch interface design
–
–
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whitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_p_j2e
W3C - One Web: Going Mobile
–
–


Jeff Han
www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/65
Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks
–

www.utilitycomputing.com
Steve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobile
www.w3.org/2006/Talks/1106-sb-OneWeb-Mobile2/#(1)
Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultant
World Wide Web Consortium
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The Future of the Internet
at various points in the past - 1
 Secure communication system for US political and
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military leaders during nuclear war
Fast communication system for US Department of
Defense and its military contractors
Global system of hypertext linkages to crossreference academic documents across computers
Fast, shared communication system for large
corporations
A way to apply computing without sending vast sums
of money to Microsoft
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The Future of the Internet
at various points in the past - 2
 Replacement for Fedexing documents
 A whole new media channel for:
– Distributing information
– Delivering entertainment & education
– Collaborating for business or pleasure
 System to:
– Perform rapid research (with limitations)
– Conduct business with consumers – B2C
– Improve social life
 Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products
& services
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The Future of the Internet
at various points in the past - 3
 A software distribution/update mechanism
 Cheap, fast, shared communication system for
everyone
 System to conduct business:
– Among businesses – B2B
– With government
 A turbo-charged way to:
– Defraud the innocent & the naive
– Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many
– Operate a global casino without spending billions
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The Future of the Internet
at various points in the past - 4
 Basis for warfare:
–
–
–
–
Disrupt enemy communication
Disable enemy weapons
Freeze enemy financial assets
Avoid casualties on the evening news
 Replacement for:
– The telephone system
– Video conferencing
 A shared infrastructure to enable:
– Media convergence
– Wireless communication system
– On-demand television
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A Brief History of the Internet
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 1
 1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency
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(ARPA) as a defense initiative
1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to
connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors
1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP
1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail
1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail
1973 The term Internet is first used
1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts
1982 first Newsgroups established
1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol
1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson
1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 2
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1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet
1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics.com
1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server
1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as
Web technology spread
1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is
considered the inventor of the Web
1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet
1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University
1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP
1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed
1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions
1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts
1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal
grant
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 3
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1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts
1993 Netscape Communications is founded
1994 The first bank opens online
1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery
1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held
1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web"
1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software
1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began
1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel
1995, 3 September – eBay launched
1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine
1995 Amazon.com launched
1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; reprioritizes software development
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 4
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1996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched
1997 The one millionth domain name is registered
1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA
1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million
pages per day
1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections
1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business
1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular
1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted
1999 MySpace.com is launched
1999 wireless technology called 802.11b or Wi-Fi is standardized
2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum
2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 5
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2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success
2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes
2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users
2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL)
2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service
2001 The first live distributed musical
2001 SETI@Home launches
2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime
treaty
 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web
servers and email accounts
 2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip
 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13
DNS root servers
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 6
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2003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for
about half of all emails
2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières
2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS
attacks
2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in
cities worldwide
2003 first Weblog site launched
2003 Second Life launched
2003 May LinkedIn launched
2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes
on all purchases
2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals
for distributing copyright music files
2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 7
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2003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store
2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps
2004 WS-Security
2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg
2004 Google IPO
2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA
2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers
in near real-time
2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China
2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through
Internet servers
2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26%
increase over 2003
2004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 8
 2005 One Laptop Per Child project begins
 2005 YouTube.com is launched
 2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media
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buys MySpace
2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online
2006 July Twitter launched publicly
2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune
2006 Google acquires YouTube for $1.65 billion
in a stock-for-stock transaction
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A Brief History
of the Internet - 9
 2007 February Apple surpasses one billion iTunes
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downloads
2007 March 1.1 billion people use the Internet
according to Internet World Stats
April 2007 Search engine giant Google surpasses
Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand," and
also is the most visited Web site
2007 – Amazon.com sales exceed $ 3 Billion
2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for
copyrighted work by major networks,
December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi-Touch
Website Using Silverlight
Internet Archive:
http://www.archive.org
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Social Computing
in Business
IBM's new social computing platform, Lotus
Connections, includes five basic
components:
 Profiles - Find the people you need
 Communities - Work with people who
share common interests and expertise
 Blogs - Present your own ideas and
learn from others
 Dogear - Save and share bookmarks
 Activities - Organize your work and
tap your professional network
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Mobile Subscriptions
by Region
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