Transcript Trend & Challenges in Telecom Convergence

Trend and Challenges in Telecom
Convergence
Ten-lee Hwang
April, 2005
Agenda



Trend of Telecom Convergence
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
Challenges Posed to Service Operators
2
Trend of Telecom Convergence
- Forces from computer and media industries
Telecom Industry (communication)
mobility
3G/Wireless Internet
Wireline
Wireless/Cellular
ISDN
Intranet/Internet
PSTN
PC-WAN
Carrier class
PC-LAN
Computer Industry (computer) PC/Servers
desk top computing
main frames
xDSL
Media Industry (content)
electronic
publishing and
entertainment
3
Trend of Telecom Convergence
- Starting from traditional telecom
Wireless
Satellite
Cordless
PSTN
GSM
Fixed
Mobile
ADSL, Cable Modem
Cable TV
AM/FM
Broadcast
VHF/UHF
4
Trend of Telecom Convergence
- Convergence in delivering network technologies
Convergence of new technologies offers opportunities and risks for
communication / content players.
Wireless
WLAN operator
VoIP
GSM @ Home
Fixed Line operator
Voice
Fixed
Mobile
Voice
Convergence
Data
Data
Mobile operator
Broadcast
TV broadcast, Cable
channels, Radio broadcast
5
Trend of Telecom Convergence
- Mobile evolution
Mobile technologies are rolling out 3G and HSDPA to provide a access
network with higher speeds.
Speed (bit/s)
10M
High
quality video
HSDPA
1M
3G/
WCDMA
Medium
quality video
384 k
Mobile office
EDGE
Internet Graphics
GPRS
Internet Text
115 k
56 k
Voice
10 k
GSM
Messaging
SMS
1k
6
Trend of Telecom Convergence
- Summary
Convergence of new technologies actually bring convergence to
services and contents
Wireless
From mobile to
wireless
M-Taiwan
From fixed to
wireless
PC/WLAN
Celluar/Wifi handsets
ADSL
Voice
Convergence
to services
and contents
Fixed
Mobile
Voice
Data
Data
Mobile evolution from 2G to 3G
Cable modem/setup box
Contents
TV
3G
Broadcast
From analog to digital,
e.g., DAB/DMB
7
Agenda
•
•
•
Trend of Telecom Convergence
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
Challenges Posed to Service Operators
8
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
- 3G WCDMA/CDMA evolution
2002
WCDMA
2003
2004
2005
WCDMA (UMTS)
3GPP Release 99
2006
HSDPA
Rel. 4
Rel. 5
1) As of Sep’04, 39 W-CDMA operators launched.
An additional 76 operators had either launched
pre-commercial W-CDMA networks or were in the
process of deploying their networks at the end of
the period.
2) 12 M sub worldwide and Japan,UK,Italy
dominate WCDMA uptake
CDMA
CDMA2000 1X
1) Around 100 operators in 60 countries in six continents have
launched CDMA2000 1X services.
2)CDMA2000 1X reach 120M sub worldwide
3)Asia-Pacific continued to be the fast-growing w/89M users
and Japan & Korea remain the largest market.
CDMA2000 1XEV-DO
Enhanced EV-DO
1) There’re 16 operators commercial launch
CDMA2000 1XEV-DO service.
2) 10 M sub worldwide
9
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
- 3G lessons learnt
A few things have been important seeing the 3G launch….
• More and more countries and operators launched
3G as the technology and handsets become much
more ready, demonstrated in recent GSM events.
• Network readiness was found to be critical for 3G
take up.
• Services and pricing were also found important
10
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
- VOIP industry value chain
Device
• ZyXEL
• WellTech
• IP Phone
• USB Phone
• D-Link
• Skype
• Hinet
• Seednet
• NCIC
• CHT
Portal &
Channel
• I.E.
• GPRS
• SW download
• VoWLAN
• ADSL
Network
• Wireless
• PABX
• Switch
99
00
• ATM Switch
From Napa consulting group’s
research,
• 15% of all desktop phones
shipped are new VoIP enabled in
Y2003.
• Cable Modem
• TDM
• Nortel
• CISCO
• Alctel
• VoIP
• Internet
ISP/ISR
• Pchome
• Portal Site
Value-add
Service
Application
• e-Bay
Transport
• Yahoo
• VoIP Gateway
• VoIP
Mobile(WLAN
+GSM)
• 50% of all desktop phones
deployed will be VoIP enabled in
Y2006.
• H.323
• Gatekeeper
• Media
gateway • SIP
• Multiservice switching
• IP PBX
01
02
03
04
05
Today
11
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
- Rapid growth of WLAN’s
• There are total 57,627 hotspots at 42,803 locations in 75 countries.
• Top 10 Cities are London (940), New York (725), Paris (692), Tokyo (472), Hong
Kong (438), Singapore (365), Chicago (346), San Francisco (341), Berlin (298),
and Kuala Lumpur(288).
• Voice will be the next big thing to emerge in the hotspot market.
Top 10 Countries
2.United Kingdom
7,402
4.France
2,789
3.Germany
4,009
7.Spain
672
6.Italy
718
8.Canada
654
5.Japan
1,225
1.United States
17,291
9.Taiwan
643
10.Australia
558
Source from www.jiwire.com, Oct. 2004
12
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
- M-Taiwan status
• Currently, total 19 wireless broadband application demo sites are sponsored by
Industrial Development Bureau Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEAIDB, 經濟部工業局).
• M-City for Taipei and Kaohsiung were BOT wireless cases in M-Taiwan Plan.
Wireless broadband application
demo sites sponsored by
MOEAIDB
台北市政府
台南市政府
台中市政府
92年度
國立歷史博物館
(共8案)
台北縣政府
彰化縣政府
桃園縣政府
屏東縣政府
國立歷史博物館
台北縣政府
新竹市政府
台中市政府
玉山國家公園管理處
雲林縣政府
93年 度
嘉義市政府
(共13案)
高雄縣政府
屏東縣政府
花蓮縣政府
宜蘭縣政府
國立傳統藝術中心
金門縣政府
Source from www.moeaidb.gov.tw
BOT: M-Taipei City
Taipei
Taoyuan
Kinmen
Hsin-chu
I-lan
Taichung
Chang-hua
Hualien
Yun-lin
 50% City
Sub, Y2005
 MRT, Y2004
 90% City
Area, End
Y2005
 To cover 800K home subscribers
and 10K public subscribers
BOT: Kaohsiung City
Ch'ia-ai
T'ai-nan
Kaohsiung
Ping-tung
Demo sites sponsored by
MOEAIDB
To start from transportation applications 13
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
- From mobile to wireless
With convergence in mobile and wireless, customers can choose which
technology to use to make voice calls.
IP world
- WLAN
Cellular
world
Cellular and WLAN compete for voice and data traffic
14
Agenda
•
•
•
Trend of Telecom Convergence
Development in 3G, VOIP, and WLAN
Challenges Posed to Service Operators
15
Challenges Posed to Service Operators
- Linking up celluar and WLAN
The incumbent has to continue listening customer needs even if the
technologies are disruptive.
Future service image
Japan
Similar for T-Mobile and SK
Telecom
One stop service／ billing
Enterprise
DB
Remote
access
broadband
Intranet
TV
conference
email
WLANのｻｰﾋﾞｽ
FOMA service
WLAN service
TV
Phone
Overseas
3G area：high mobility、charge by usage
WLAN area：high speed、flat rate
Remote
access
Intranet
broadband
email
3G
Fixed line broadband
WLAN
TV
conference
TV
Phone
16
Challenges Posed to Service Operators
- Service operation requires is a process of improvement
Access network and technology alone cannot create satisfied customers
– there are many things additional for network operations and service
operations – will be a challenge to new entrants
17
Thank You
18