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New Technologies:
An Industry Perspective
Karl-Ulrich Stein
Siemens AG - I & C - Networks
with contributions of the ACTS-Project
CONVAIR
s
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Introduction
Strategy with confidence?
Hyped technologies fading away?
Trial and error in the
market?
Key to Answers:
Growth Rate
< 10% administrate
p.a.
identify trend
> 100% develop strategy/roadmap
p.a. share a vision
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
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Contend
Total bitrate trends of public networks
Access
 Bitrate trends
 Learning curve price per Mbit/s
CORE

Roadmap of CORE network technologies
 Optical WDM/Cross-Connect-Network: PHOTON
 OAM and TDM of Optical Networks: MOON
 IP over WDM
Conclusions
The convergence vision
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
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Total average bitrate trends
1000000
100000
TV
10000
1000
Telephone
Gbit/s
100
Internet
10
1
0,1
0,01
0,001
0,0001
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Year
TV (households*6 Mbit/s, 2h/day)
Trend Telephone total (estimated, MiTT)
Gompertz Curve (0,1*TV,1993/95,ISOC)
Gompertz Curve (0,1*TV,1995/98 V. Cerf)
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
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Digital access technologies: Bitrate trends
10
Mbit/s
Modem
Products
Trend Scenario:
1
Standards
0,1
0,01
0,001
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
Standard(CCITT)
Mature Produkt
Original Data ISDN/IDSL
Original Data SDSL
Trend Scenario: Modem Products
First Product
Original Data Modem
Original Data ADSL
Original Data Cablemodem
Trend Scenario: long term Standards
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
Digital access technologies:
Learning curve - price per Mbit/s
1000000
DM/
Mbit/s
1990
100000
Modems
1995
10000
2000
1000
ISDN/
xDSL
2005
100
2010
Year
10
0,001
0,01
0,1
1
10
100
1000
Mio
10000
Accumulated Mbit/s
Price per Mbps by Modem 14.4-19,2 Kbps
Price per Mbps by Modem 56 Kbps
ADSL (Market Forecast)
ISDN/IDSL
Price per Mbps by Modem 28,8-33,6 Kbps
Trend Modem
SDSL (Market Forecast)
Sources:
Dataquest,
Siemens
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s
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Growth of core bitrate
1015
bit/s
1014
1013
Photonic
Crossconnect
Microelectronic/
SDH
1012
1011
1010
10 9
10 8
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Atlantic BR
Atlantic BR extrapolate
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
Core network technologies
Router/
Switch
IP
ATM
CrossConnector
OCC
SDH
Multiplexer
WDM / ADM
Phys.
Transport
Optics
Fiber
1
10
100
Gbit/s 1000
Bitrate (.....Time)
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
Core network technologies
Router/
Switch
IP
IP over WDM
ATM
CrossConnector
PHOTON / MOON
OCC
SDH
Multiplexer
WDM / ADM
Phys.
Transport
Optics
Fiber
1
10
100
Gbit/s 1000
Bitrate (.....Time)
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
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Objectives
Conceptional framework for optical transport networks
Field trial demonstrating key functionalities
optical cross-connect
network supervision
multichannel transmission
new optical components
Applications
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2579
s
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Objectives
OAM and TMN concept for optical transport networks
Identification of network elements
Examination the applicability of existing concepts and protocols
Adaptation/development of suitable concepts/protocols
Field trial
Implementation of key functionalities
Demonstration of managed optical transport network
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
km
National host
ca.
20
FDMST
Applications
Mux/
Demux
Mux/
Demux
Existing SDHinfrastruct.
STM-16
LFS
Network
management
FDM
Mux/
Demux
LFS
Existing SDHinfrastruct.
OCC
C
km
Applications
OCC
A
GERMANY
STM-16
FDMST
FDM
STM-16
AUSTRIA
National host
FR
FDM
LFS
STM-64
a few m
ca. 200 km
20
ca.
National host
Applications
FDMST
Existing SDHinfrastruct.
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OCC
B
ca. 280 km
STM-64
STM-16
LFS
OCC
STM-N
FDM
FDMST
Leased frequency service
Optical cross connect
Synchronous transport module
Frequency division multiplexing
FDM supervision termination
FR
Frequency reference
Single optical information channel
Erbium doped fiber amplifier
Optical FDM link
National border
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
IP over WDM
Conception
Optimization and harmonization of the various techniques for
wavelength-routing and IP-routing.
Simplification and optimization of network-wide restoration mechanisms in
WDM-networks with the inclusion of existing IP-routing mechanisms.
A suitable network interface which embodies a powerful level-2 protocol
(i.e. link level) between level-3 (IP) and level-1 protocols.
Consideration of the properties of the application-related protocols e.g. multicast
Implementation
Realization of the key functionalities for IP over WDM.
Testbed demonstration in Berlin.
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
s
CONVAIR: The convergence vision
 Interworking networks, not one universal: the intermodal
way of convergence, similar to traffic systems (air, rail...)
 Price/performance ratio of usage dramatically reduced by
volume explosion similar to PC penetration
 Seamless mobility and nomadicity for all applications
 Further generations of wireline/wireless access
 Economy-driven evolution to all optical networks
 Most applications based on improved IP
 Seamless integration of voice, data and video widely used
 Next generation WWW for retrieval and communication
ICN M RC R&D Cooperations
2579
New Technologies:
An Industry Perspective
Karl-Ulrich Stein
Siemens AG - I & C - Networks
with contributions of the ACTS-Project
CONVAIR
CONVAIR: The Convergence Vision
Interworking networks, not one universal: the
intermodal way of convergence, similar to traffic systems
(air, rail...)
Price/performance ratio of usage dramatically reduced
by volume explosion similar to PC penetration
Seamless mobility and nomadicity for all applications
Further generations of wireline/wireless access
Economy-driven evolution to all optical networks
Most applications based on improved IP
Seamless integration of voice, data and video widely
used