Transcript gartner_voip

Is VoIP the Future of
Telecommunications?
Yes, but it’s only the subplot!
Conclusions
• Voice over IP (VoIP) is the strategic
direction for both the wide area network
(WAN) and premise PBX equipment.
• VoIP is rapidly becoming a viable
technology for some implementations.
• The biggest reason for using VoIP in the
WAN today is cost savings.
• Full and complete telephony application
functionality will not arrive until 2003.
Technology Conclusions
• New technologies are becoming available that leverage the universal
deployment of TCP-IP within the LAN, WAN, and Metropolitan Area
Network (MAN)
• Passive Optical Networking (PON) dramatically lowers the cost of deploying
broadband municipal fiber networks.
• Free Space Optics (FSO) will dramatically lower the cost of deploying
broadband municipal wireless networks.
• The TCP-IP protocol represents the strategic direction for both the Local
Area Network (LAN) and the Wide-Area Network (WAN)
• Voice over IP (VoIP) represents the strategic direction for both the wide-area
network (WAN) and premise PBX equipment.
• VoIP is rapidly becoming a viable technology for some implementations.
• The biggest reason for using VoIP in the WAN today is cost savings.
• Full and complete telephony application functionality will not arrive until
2003.
What Is VoIP?
VoIP = Voice over the Internet
Protocol
It is not:Voice over the Internet
•Instead of using traditional
circuit switch systems for voice
communications, VoIP uses a
packet protocol originally
designed for data
communications.
•VoIP can be used within the
LAN, WAN, MAN, and/or the PBX
Enterprise VoIP Economics
Local
PSTN
PBX
Intranet
Local
PSTN
PBX
IP Gateway
VoIP Requirements
Router upgrades
• shorter packet
• VoIP processing
Router cards
Gateways
PBX upgrades
PBX table changes
Increase bandwidth
Staffing requirements
The IP Telephony Solution
Analog 2500 Phone
Palm Pilot
PC Phone
Client
IP Business
Phone
Video
Switch
Fax
H.323
ConneXtions
•Call Control
•Gateway
•Applications
Route
r
PSTN
WAN
Applications — A Field of Dreams
Contact Center
[email protected]
Dear Johan,
It’s over.
Internet
Remote Workers
Collaboration
Unified
Messaging
Vendor Push Drives PBX
Transformation
PBX
Telephony
Server
VoIP Hype Cycle
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Plateau of
Productivity
Hype
VoIP
Technology
Trigger
Type A
Adoption
Slope of
Enlightenment
Trough of
Disillusionment
Type B
Adoption
Type C
Adoption
Maturity
Voice Quality Is More Than Low
Delay
Voice QoS Requirements:
• Latency/delay
• Packet loss
• Jitter
Is Reliability Really a Problem?
Is Microsoft NT
as stable as a
proprietary
operating system?
WAN
Why shouldn’t the data
network be resilient
enough for voice needs?
Will management risk
reduced service levels
for telephony?
VoIP Perceptions: No Hardware
IP phones cost as
much or more than
the existing feature
set
Server-based hardware
is not necessarily cheaper
than proprietary hardware
Adding IP devices is not
any easier than upgrading
legacy hardware
Extending the Voice Network
government Private
Voice Network
Voice Mail
Small Office/Branch
Office Locations
QSig
Centralized
Operator
•
•
•
•
IP-Based
Network
Retain resilience in head-office network
Home Workers
Extend core functionality to all locations
Experiment with unified desktop functionality
Benefit from an upgraded network infrastructure
Improving Staff Mobility
On the Road
Voice Application
Servers
WWW
In the Office
IP-Based
Network
• Maintain single user profile across the
enterprise
• Unify user messaging through one
application interface
• Work smarter, not harder
Working at
Home
Centralize Management Control
PSTN
IP-Based
Network
Management
Interface
•
•
•
•
No disparate branch-office platforms
Central control of telephone calls/routing
Single interface for moves and changes
Seamless functionality across the network
Branch
Offices
IP PBX Timing
Percentage
IP/PBX for less
than 100 desktops
100
Approximately
308,000
systems in 2004
75
IP/PBX for more
than 100 desktops
50
25
12.5
Less than 3,000
systems in 2004
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
Converged V/D Telephony Equipment
Providers — North American MQ
Less than 100 lines
Challengers
More than 100 lines
Leaders
Challengers
Leaders
Nortel Networks
Vertical Networks
Ability to
Execute
Siemens
Artisoft
Shoreline
AltiGen
Communications
Mitel
Expanets
Nortel Networks
Cisco Systems
NEC
Avaya
3Com
Cisco Systems
Ability to
Execute
Avaya
Mitel
3Com
Shoreline
As of 1/31/01
Niche Players
Visionaries
Completeness of Vision
Siemens
NEC
Alcatel
As of 1/31/01
Niche Players
Visionaries
Completeness of Vision
Recommendations
Where to Deploy VoIP
All new data WAN upgrades
Remote dial-in users
Hoteling workers in multiple
locations
As part of unified messaging
Where Not to Deploy VoIP
When justifying based only on
TCO
With existing multiple PBX
vendors
When an application doesn’t
require it!
At new SOHO sites
When less than 100 stations
Don’t implement for the next 18 to 24 months
Implement as trial first
Implement now
Packet access networks
dramatically lowers costs
Add Drop ATM and/or SONET
Multiplexers provide QoS via
expensive “nailed down” bandwidth
between locations
ATM and SONET interfaces are also
very expensive
Ethernet switches provide QoS via
inexpensive TCP-IP protocols
Ethernet interfaces are also very
inexpensive
Cost Comparison between OC-192
and Gigabit Ethernet
The costs for Ethernet are
often 1/10 of the cost for
equivalent ATM or SONET
bandwidth
Passive Optical Network Access
System
FSAN Model for PON
The Full Service
Access Network
standards initiative
defines a set of
passive-opticalnetwork architecture
standards using ATM
as the transport
technology.
Free Space Optics
Advantages
•Quick time of
deployment
•Cost-efficient
network
investment
•No license
acquisitions
•Investment
protection for
leased buildings
•Excellent for
temporary
installations
What is the future of
Telecommunications?
Anything over IP and IP over anything!
Voice
Intranet
Video
Extranet
E-gov
IP
LAN
MAN
WAN
Wireless
Optics
Copper
Real-time
Store and forward
Organizations that achieve end-to-end
convergence will achieve the lowest TCO.