Transcript 2_Tech_ forces

2.2. Motive techno forces shaping evolution
processes in ICT
- Microprocessors
- Photonics
A. Moore’s Law
Gordon E. Moore, 1965. "Cramming more components onto integrated
circuits," Electronics, volume 38, number 8 (19 April), at
http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf
•
•
•
Exponential increase in the number of components on a chip
Doubling of number of transistors on a chip every 18 months (1980s)
Doubling of microprocessor power every 18 months (1990s)
•
Computing power at fixed cost is doubling every 18 months (1990s)
Throughput of integrated circuits, in MIPS, will doubled every
18 months with cost of decrease by 50%, and this regularity
will remain correct for several decades.
(MIPS -millions of instructions per second)
• Reliability
• Power consumption
• Miniaturization (number of transistors per chip)
A. Moore‘s Law (Cntd)
1T
1012
256G
64G
1011
DRAMs
1010
4G
256M
1947: 1000 MW
64M
108
16M
107
4M
30 min. music
1M
106
256k
64k
105
16k
4k
1k
103
1970
4004
i486
Pentium IV
Pentium III
Pentium II
PPC 620
Pentium Pro
Pentium
80386
80286
8086


McKinley
Itanium (Merced)
6 days music
4 h video
2.000.000 pages
Source: Siemens ICN
Transistors per Chip
1G
109
104
16G
Intel
Motorola
Processors
1980
2000
1990
We can store and process all information.
2010
2020
A. Moore‘s Law (Cntd)
•1988 - 275,000 transistors on the Intel 80386 chips in to
•1992 - 1.4 million transistors on the 80486 SL chips
Pentium, Pentium Pro and Pentium II processor families
•1999 - 28 million transistors (Intel Pentium III Xeon and Mobile Pentium III
processors)
•2001 - 42 million transistors (Pentium 4)
Evolution of Computer Power/Cost
Brainpower Equivalent (computing
power of the human brain) per $
1000 (around 2030)
MIPS per $1000
(1997 Dollars)
Gateway G6-200
PowerMac 8100/80
1000
Gateway-485DX2/55
Power Tower 150e
Macintosh-128K
Mac II
AT&T
Commodore
IBM PC
Globalyst 600
64
Apple II
IBM
PS/290
DG Eclipse Sun-2
CDC 7600
Sun-3
DEC PDP-10
IBM 1130
VAX 11/750
IBM 7090
DEC VAX 11/780
Whirlwind
DEC-KL-10
IBM 704
DG Nova
UNIVAC I
SDS 920
ENIAC
IBM 350/75
IBM 7040
Colossus
Burroughs 5000
IBM 1620
IBM 650
Burroughs Class 16
Zuse-1
IBM Tabulator
1
1
1000
1
Mio
1
Bio
Monroe Calculator
1900
1920
ASCC
(Mark 1)
1940
1960
Year
1980 2000 2020 2040
Prices of 1 Mbit DRAM
150 000 DM
History
Forecast
10 DM
1 DM 26 Pfennig
5 Cent
3 Cent
1973
1977
1981
1984
1987
1991
1995
1999
2002
2005
1 Cent
2009
1 paperclip
60 DM
1 post it
240 DM
1 sheet of paper
800 DM
1 gummi bear
1 chewing gum
10 000 DM
O,5 Cent
2013
0,1 Cent
2017
Source: acc. to Weick, Manfred, ZT IK MK
Expensive functions and applications today will be cheap tomorrow.
B. Photonic technologies
Fiber optic cables for long-haul networks – beginning of
70-th
Main directions of FOC development:
• The transition from multimode to single mode fiber
• Wavelength changing of the applied spectral windows with
=0,85 mkm to =1,33/1,55 mkm
• The decrease of attenuation in the fiber from figures of several
dozens of dB/km to 0,2 dB/km
Photonic technologies (Cntd)
# Main requirements – grows of network capacity
# Boom growth of traffic, especially data
# Number of factors:
• Accelerated development of the Internet
• Commercial applications of graphic and video information
exchange
• The growth of worldwide business, which leads to the growth of
worldwide traffic
# New technologies for photonic networks
SDHD/WDM
Tbits/s
Performance improvements in photonics
Fiber Capacity
Mbit/s*km 1010
Theoretical limit of glass fiber
Experiment:
7 Tbit/s, 50 km
Product
160x10G; 80 km
108
+100 % p.a.
+70 % p.a.
104
2.5 G
565 M
34 M
1975
140 M
1985
1995
2005
2015
Year
Source: ICN M TA: Photonics
16´2.5 G
10 G
106
102
40´10 G
2.3. Mega trends on ICT
- Digitalization
- Mobile communications
- Internet
- Convergence of services/networks/devices
- Main shifts on ICT
Main shifts on ICT
TODAY
TOMORROW
Mobile
Packet based
Connectionless
Telephony
Connections
•Analog
IP Apps
Circuit based
Digital
Fixed
Mobile
Packet based
Telephony
Wireline
Mobile
Connectionless
IP Apps
Connections
Circuit based
Voice
Data
CONVERGENCE
Wireline
Grows of subscribers
2002: Fixed = Mobile 1,15 Billion
Grows: Fixed –2%, Mobile – 10% (ITU)
A. Digitalization
Digitalization of:
•
Information
• Information processing tools
• Transportation systems
Transition from analog to digital format
• Analog networks - separate
• Integrated networks - digital
• Convergence in ICT
B. Mobile communications
Grows of fixed and mobile
and distribution by technology
Grows of fixed and mobile subscribers
Ovum
Limitations of 2G systems
Evolution of mobile communications
C. Internet
Brief History of the Internet
•1957– Launch of Sputnik is impetus for U.S. to form ARPA
(DoD)
•1965 – ARPA sponsors a study “Cooperative network for
time-sharing”; Innovation of packet switching
(D. Devis, UK, P. Baran, US)
• 1969 – September 2, launch of first computer network
ARPANET
• 1972 – Beginning of E-mail (Tomlinson, US)
• 1974 – First article about TCP/IP (Cerf/Kahn)
•1979 – Establishing first research computer network (NSF,
Univ. Wisc., DARPA)
Brief History of the Internet (Cntd)
•1982 – Internet defined as TCP/IP-connected network
•1986 – 56 kb/s NSFNET created for 5 supercomputing
centers
• 1989 – Number of Internet nodes breaks 100 000; IETF
comes into existence
• 1992 – WWW released; Number of nodes breaks 1M
• 1995 – Internet Society was founded VoIP comes to the
market
• 2001 – Number of hosts breaks 300M
• 2002 – VoIP has taken away 13% of long-haul telephone
traffic
The Internet timeline
Number of hosts
Number of users
Reasons for grows:
•Windows
•Modems
•Searching tools
•HTL
Commercial
Apps
Military/Academic Apps
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Internet grows without any signs of recession
Forecast of the global voice/data traffic’s growth
6
5
4
3
2
Total telephone traffic
International telephone traffic
Data traffic
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
20
02
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
97
1
19
Tbps
Source: Arthur D. Little, 1999
Today´s realities
European carrier’s traffic
European carriers’ revenues
Where traffic comes from in 2004
Other
13%
24
25
Traffic Volume (Tbps)
2004, Total USD $295 billion
20
Fixed Data
10%
15
Fixed
telephony
39%
10
5
0
0.1
Mobile
2
Fixed
telephony
Source: Blended from IDC, ECTA, & Operators
Fixed
Data
Mobile
services
38%
Source: IDATE, Mar 2000
Fixed Data Services Comprise a Smaller Proportion of Income
but Represent the Largest Proportion of Traffic
Total U.S. Internet traffic
100 Pbps
10 Pbps
1 Pbps
100Tbps
New Measurements
10Tbps
1Tbps
100Gbps
Voice Crossover: August 2000
Projected at 4/Year
10Gbps
1Gbps
100Mbps
10Mbps
4/Year
ARPA & NSF Data to 1996
2.8/Year
1Mbps
100Kbps
10Kbps
1Kbps
100 bps
10 bps
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Roberts et al., 2001
Some issues of Internet traffic
• Most traffic is from corporations (80% estimated)
– Main growth is from corporations
– “Last mile” has been improving rapidly (100–1000 Mbps)
– Corporate traffic is anti-recessionary
• Move from private networks to Internet for cost reduction
(VPN)
Some issues of Internet traffic
(Cntd)
- Corporate Internet use hit critical mass in 2000
•Now need to use the Internet for all business
•Inter-corporate traffic is now mainly over the Internet
•Intra-corporate traffic is growing in size (E-mail
documents)
- Personal traffic is growing but broadband deployment is
slow
- Internationally, traffic is still at the pre-2000 growth rate
of 2.8/year
Penetration rates of services (US market)
Time to reach 50 mio customers
100
80
60
40
millions of customers
120
20
TV
(15 Years)
Telephone
(90 Years)
Radio
(40
Years)
Internet
(<5
Years)
Cable
(10 Years)
Computer
Mobile Phone
0
1922
1950
1980
1995
Products have an accelerated market penetration.
Napster
18 months
Penetration (in %%) of different technologies and
devices
Internet
penetration
PC
penetration
Mobile
Broadband
penetration Penetration
36
50-60
40
5-10
Europe
20
40
70
<< 5
Asia
17
<5
<30
<<<5
USA
Source: Cisco, 2002
Mobile vs. fixed Internet penetration in Europe
Mobile and Internet penetration
in Western European countries (YE 2000)
80%
AUT
Mobile penetration (in %)
ITA
FIN
NOR
SPA
70%
NL
LUX
UK
CH
SWE
POR
60%
GRE IRL
DK
GER
FRA
50%
BEL
40%
0%
Source: Siemens
10%
20%
30%
40%
(Fixed) Internet penetration (in %)
50%
D. Convergence of networks/services/devices
United
Network
Main shifts on ICT
TODAY
TOMORROW
Mobile
Packet based
Connectionless
Telephony
Connections
•Analog
IP Apps
Circuit based
Digital
Fixed
Mobile
Packet based
Telephony
Wireline
Mobile
IP Apps
Connections
Circuit based
Voice
Data
CONVERGENCE
Connectionless
Wireline
Main shifts on ICT (Cntd)
TODAY
TOMMOROW
Telephones, PCs, TVs
Multifunctional devices with
network interfaces
Voice/data on networks
Data, then MM dominates on
networks
Proprietary and specialized
networking
Totally open and interoperable
networks
PSTN and Internet are separated
Global network of networks
Dedicated applications
Apps designed for universal and
independent using
High tariffs for long-distance
service
Flat networks with distanceindependent tariffs
2.4. Crisis in IC sector
A. Manufacturers
# Market downturn in 2001 - Manufacturers‘ sales
-15%
-25%
Deutsche
Bank and
CSFB
Revenue Manufacturers in 2000 and 2001
Turnover (Billion Euro)
2000
2001
Change compared
to previous year
40
40
35
35
30
Nokia
+ 3%
30 Siemens I and C + 8%
25
25 Alcatel
20
Ericsson
Lucent
20 Cisco
Nortel
15
15
10
10 Marconi
5
5
0
0
- 19%
- 15%
- 22%
- 24%
- 42%
- 12%
Source: CD S C
Manufacturers EBITA in 2000 and 2001
EBITA (Billion Euro)
2000
5
2001
5 Nokia
1st tier
0
-5
0 Siemens I and C
Ericsson
Cisco
- 5 Alcatel
Marconi
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
2nd tier
Lucent
Nortel
3rd tier
B. Operators
Market downturn in 2001 - Carrier spending
Carrier Spending, Actual Versus Normalized
CapEx, Top 15 Carriers
Normalized Spending
$ Billion
120.0
-15%
100.0
- 23%
80.0
-25%
- 6%
CSFB
60.0
16%
40.0
20.0
0.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001E 2002E 2003E
Source: JPMorgan
Note: Source for 2001-2003 capex spending estimates is JPMorgan
Excessive growth slowed and dropped in
following three areas:
• Internet
• E-business
• Mobile phone euphoria
• The Internet boom hadn’t to pass the reality checking
• E-business didn’t gain speed as quickly as anticipated.
• The mobile phone euphoria came to naught
Operators’ debts increase and reduce free
cash flow
$bn
600
Operators‘ net debt
500
540
560
570
550
500
400
Projection
346
430
260
300
Total
280
290
290
280
260
Europe
200
170
250
250
240
240
220
160
100
190
20
23
25
30
30
28
22
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
2003
2004
2005
0
USA
Asia
Pacific
Source: GS II/01
C. Basis for huge losses - manias
Growthmania
Acquisitionmania
1. Growth mania
Over a number of years, growth was the exclusive criterion for
measuring success in the so-called New-Economy.
2. Acquisition mania
Companies in particular paid outrageously overvalued prices for
acquisitions. This resulted in wildly overvalued companies and
share prices.
Basis for huge losses – manias
(Cntd)
dot.commania
Financingmania
3. Dot.com mania
Till March 2000 we have seen a wholly irrational run-up in share
prices, particularly for I and C start-ups. The successful guideline
was: “Earn revenues from banners and from clicks.”
4. Financing mania
The fourth major factor was that growth wasn’t earned, but
bought. Many companies delivered products and systems to
customers according to the motto “volume is everything” - without
reasonably checking if they were viable or credible.
Concluding remarks
Global MM-MS
network
After 2010 all information will be digitally stored and sent via the global network.