Transcript Information Technologies that will drive

Information Technologies that
will drive Enterprise Change
Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress
14 June 1998
Gordon Bell
Microsoft Corp.
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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Topics...
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JAWS
JAWES
T
STEW
WEST
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WEB
E-Commerce
Scalability
Telepresence
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Web…a small Cyberspace island
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Everything cyberizable will be in
Cyberspace!
Continent
Body
Car
Region/
Intranet
Home
Campus,
World
including SANs
Fractal Cyberspace: a
network of … networks
of … platforms
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“Everything will be in Cyberspace”
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Is this a challenge? goal?
quest? fate?… or
Cyberization enables
new computing platforms that
require new networks to connect
them
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Infrastructure supports the content
Three evolutionary dimensions
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Cyberization: interface to all bits
and process information
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Coupling to all information and
information processors
Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
State of: places, things, and people
State of: physical networks
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Atoms vs Electrons for bits
Atoms (mass)
people know
bricks & mortar
office hours
database & reports
letter & fax
phone
personal visits
signature
envelopes
Electrons, etc. (massless)
computers know
anywhere
(personnel/clients)
anytime
web access for review
and transactions
email & web access
email, voice & video mail
videophone / videomail
authenticated images
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digital envelopes
/ store
By January 2001 there will NOT be
1 billion people on the “net”.
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte
$1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.
Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.
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Why this is the keystone bet!
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It determines the market
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It says something about the utility
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for networks
for access devices… especially PCs
commerce
communication
entertainment
Increased network capacity & ubiquity
enables
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phones
videophones
television
serendipity
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Internetters growth
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
‘95
World Population
extrapolated at 1.6% per year
Internet Growth
extrapolated at 98% per year
‘96
‘97
‘98
‘99
‘00
‘01
‘02
‘03
‘04
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Internetters growth
10000
World Population
TVs & Phones
1000
“1 Gp by 2000”
Negroponte
PCs
100
Internetters
10
‘95
‘96
‘97
‘98
‘99
‘00
‘01
‘02
‘03
‘04
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Growth in hype
WWW
Infoway promise:
“how great it’ll
be” (politicians,
academics, etc.)
books, Infoway
newspapers
regulation
Infoway
addiction
conferences
lawsuits
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Data from Gordon’s WAG
Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus
commerce ($M)
actual
commerce
articles about
risk and NOT
doing
commerce
pornography,
crime, FUD,
etc. articles
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Data from Gordon’s WAG
Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in
3D real space
Computation
Communication
Cyberization
Programs, Content & messages
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Cyberspace: one, two or three
networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020?
Data
Telephony
Television
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CIO Challenge
… how to manage Cyberspace?
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Visibility is Required for Every
Part of the System!
New & in-house custom
applications
SAP, PeopleSoft, BAAN,
Oracle ERP
Oracle, MS-SQL, SyBase,
Informix
Notes, Outlook, Netshow,
File & Print
SMTP, POP, Exchange,
ccMail
HTTP(s), DNS, FTP, Real,
Pointcast
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Managing the entire IT Enterprise:
servers, apps, nets and clients …
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Enterprise’s growing dependence upon apps for
business processes and extended market reach …
and especially E-commerce
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Growing complexity of apps and
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Growing “user” diversity including customers
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No visibility into the user’s experience
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The approach has to be to understand
the system from the user’s perspective!
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Client Based Passive Flow Analysis:
End-to-end Path Visibility
Applications Availability Transaction Time Transaction Health
Client
Network
Server
Routers &
Switches
Availability User Behavior
PC Health Modem
Configuration
Phone Line
Delay
Availability
Availability
Congestion, Hop Count, Delay
Load
RTT (Round Trip Time)
Delay
Route flutter, Packet loss
Refused
Available Throughput CIO Congress
connections
E- Commerce
(and especially money… as atoms
become bits)
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PC or web access device
is critical for growth
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US Households on line
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One million people will access the web via
TV sets...
Bet::
At least one million users will
access the web/internet via their
television sets by the end of 2001.
Via: phone line,
16%
xDSL
19%
cable modem
17%
settop box/cable 39%
not at all
9%
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On line US Revenue
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Real growth in commerce?
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Who buys what
on line in
2002?
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Underlying Technologies
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Merchant Servers
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Microsoft
Open Market
SUN
iCat
Cyber Agencies
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CKS
Organic
DoubleClick
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Underlying Technologies
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Incentive Systems (money surrogate)
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Digital IQ - Coupons
Netcentives - Frequent Flyer Miles
Impulse Buy Network - Buyer’s Network
Narrative - Direct Response
Sweepstakes - Yoyodyne
e-Bay - Auctions
Cyber “Consumer Reports”
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Junglee
Jango
NECX
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Channels
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More Cybermediaries Bring Buyers and Sellers Together
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Yahoo
FastParts, Inc.
Instill Corp
Consumer Magnets Buyers With Useful Information link to
Manufacturers & Service Providers
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Auto-by-Tel
Get-Smart.com
Junglee
NECX
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Predictions that will change your job
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As Cybermediaries Gain Momentum They could Control Buying Process
Existing Suppliers Risk Being
Supplanted by Startups That Will
Own the Internet channel
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Example: Amazon.Com
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Atoms represent “money”, ownership,
… risk
IT responsible for the infrastructure
for a wide range of activities:
advertising, selling, delivery, billing,
support, etc.
For many, the WEB is the Interface
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New or old money… it’s just bits
Credit
ATM /
Prepaid
Check
Cash
Prepaid
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Put those checks & statements in
Cyberspace or eliminate them!
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Buying & selling stock: what a pain!
Faxes? E-signatures are legal in GA
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Paperless transactions:
put them all in Cyberspace
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Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits
Atoms (mass)
money
statements
bills / checks
coupons
Electrons, etc. (massless)
database, smart card,
credit card, debit card
web access
bill present. / check free
cyber-coupons
stock
database, web
statements, reports
web access, email
+company infor, analyst reports, etc.
private placements
web access, email
trade confirmation
direct trades
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mail voting
on line voting
Scalability
User-built Scalables aka Clusters are
like nothing we’ve seen before...
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Billions Of Clients
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Every device will be “intelligent”
Doors, rooms, cars…
Computing will be ubiquitous
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Not shown:
ECG; GPS;
Compass;
altimeter
PCS; Pilot
Libretto,
.5mm
pencil
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Libretto PS,
Ricoh Camera;
Swiss Army
Congress
Knife
Audio, pix, T, P, ECG,
location, physiological
parameters…
1 GB
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Billions Of Clients
Need Millions Of Servers
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All clients
networked to
servers
 May
be nomadic
or on-demand
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Fast clients want
faster servers
Servers provide
 Shared
Clients
Mobile
clients
Fixed
clients
Servers
Server
Data
 Control
 Coordination
 Communication
Super
server
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Cluster: Shared What?
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Shared Memory Multiprocessor
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Shared Disk Cluster
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Multiple processors, one memory
all devices are local
DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
an array of nodes
all shared common disks
VAXcluster + Oracle
Shared Nothing Cluster
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each device local to a node
ownership may change
Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack
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SNAP: Scalable Networks and
Platforms
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Standard (I.e. commodity) platform
The SAN (System Area Network)
standard makes the network ubiquitous
… and great!
Common operating system for platform,
reducing vendor and customer costs,
and enables affordable, standard apps
Cluster technology
Apps are TRANPARENT!!!CIO Congress
SNAP Systems circa 2000
Portables
Person
servers
(PCs)
Local &
global
Mobile
data
Nets
comm
Wide-area
world
global
ATM network
Telecomputers
aka Internet
Terminals
???
TC=TV+PC
home ...
(CATV or ATM
or satellite)
ATM & Ethernet:
to PC, workstation,
& servers
A space, time (bandwidth),
generation, and reliability
scalable environment
Legacy
mainframe &
minicomputer
servers & terminals
scalable computers
built from PCs &
SANs
Centralized
& departmental
servers built from
PCs
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Scaling dimensions include:
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reliability… including always up
number of nodes
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most cost-effective system built from
best nodes… PCs with NO backplane
highest throughput distributes disks to
each node versus into a single node
location within a region or continent
time-scale I.e. machine generations
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SAN:
Standard Interconnect
Gbps Ethernet:
110 MBps
PCI:
70 MBps
UW SCSI:
40 MBps
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FW SCSI: 20 MBps
SCSI: 5 MBps
LAN faster than
memory bus?
1 GBps links in
lab.
100$ port cost
soon
Port is computer
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Basic Argument for x-Disks
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Future disk controller is a super-computer.
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Connects to SAN via high-level protocols
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RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,….
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Commands are RPCs
management, security,….
Services file/web/db/… requests
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1 bips processor
128 MB dram
100 GB disk plus one arm
Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev
environment
Move apps to disk to save data movement
– need programming environment
controller
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All God’s Children Have Clusters!
Buying Computing By the Slice
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People are buying
computers by the
dozens
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Computers only
cost 1k$/slice!
Clustering them
together
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“Commercial” NT Clusters
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16-node Tandem Cluster
64 cpus
– 2 TB of disk
– Decision support
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45-node Compaq Cluster
140 cpus
– 14 GB DRAM
– 4 TB RAID disk
– OLTP (Debit Credit)
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-1
B tpd (14 k tps)
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Tandem Oracle/NT
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27,383 tpmC
71.50 $/tpmC
4 x 6 cpus
384 disks
=2.7 TB
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Loki: Pentium Clusters for
Science
http://loki-www.lanl.gov/
16 Pentium Pro Processors
x 5 Fast Ethernet interfaces
+ 2 Gbytes RAM
+ 50 Gbytes Disk
+ 2 Fast Ethernet switches
+
Linux…………………...
= 1.2 real Gflops for $63,000
(but that is the 1996 price)
Beowulf project is
similar
http://cesdis.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/peopl
e/becker/beowulf.html
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Scientists
cheap mips.
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Our Tax Dollars At Work
ASCI for Stockpile Stewardship
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Intel/Sandia:
9000x1 node Ppro
LLNL/IBM:
512x8 PowerPC
(SP2)
LNL/Cray:
?
Maui Supercomputer
Center
–
512x1 SP2
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NCSA Cluster
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The National Center for
Supercomputing
Applications
University of Illinois @
Urbana
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500 Pentium cpus, 2k disks,
SAN
Compaq + HP +Myricom
A Super Computer for 3M$
Classic Fortran/MPI
programming
NT + DCOM programming
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model
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4 B PC’s (1 Bips, .1GB dram, 10 GB disk 1 Gbps Net, B=G)
The Bricks of Cyberspace
 Cost
1,000 $
 Come with
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NT
DBMS
High speed Net
System management
GUI / OOUI
Tools
 Compatible
with everyone else
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 CyberBricks
Some Tera-Byte Databases
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The Web: 1 TB of HTML
TerraServer 1 TB of images
Several other 1 TB (file) servers
Hotmail: 7 TB of email
Sloan Digital Sky Survey:
40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked
EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)
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15 PB by 2006 (7 year history)
Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program
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Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
15 PB by 2007
Federal Clearing house: images of checks
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Kilo
10 Exabytes (???!!)
Exa
Zetta
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Yotta
Info Capture
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You can record
everything you
see
or hear or read.
What would you
do with it?
How would you
organize &
analyze it?
A letter
A novel
Kilo
Mega
A
Movie
Giga
Library of
Congress (text)
Tera
LoC (image)
Peta
All
Disks
Exa
Video
8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h)
Zetta
All Tapes
Audio
30 TB (10KB/s)
Read/write: 8 GB (words)
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Yotta
See: http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
A
novel
Kilo
A
letter
Mega
LoC (text)
Giga
LoC
(sound +
cinema)
Tera
Peta
All
Disks
All Tapes
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
A
Movie
LoC
(image)
All
Photos
All
Information!
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Now how do you find or use the
rich information
Need the system to:
locate, retrieve, visualize, order,
up load the corporation’s IP assets
(text, proposals, images, videos,
presentations, etc.) …
with appropriate controls.
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SmartMedia Technologies
Context
Relevance
Image Recognition for Objects
Speech Recognition
Image Recognition, Lexical Cues
Transcripts
Close Caption
Lexical Analysis
Viewing
Color
Previews - Power Point, PDF,
B&W
Brightness Video, Sound, Artwork
Contrast
Volume
Speech-Music
Meta Information
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Virage Video Cataloger
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Telepresence
… being there while being here,
at another time, and
with time scaling
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Telepresentations
Telemeetings
The “work”
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Motivation:
Telepresentations
• Presenter and/or
audience
telepresent
NOT: meeting or
collaboration settings
Forget the nasty social
issues!
Mostly one-way
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Telepresentation
Elements
 Slides
 Audio
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Video
Script,
text
comments,
hyperlinks,
etc.
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Telepresentations:
The Essentials
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Slide and audio a must
Add some video
(low quality)
to make us feel good
Storage and transmission
costs low
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Telepresentations:
The Killer App
Increased attendance & lower
travel costs
 Practical and low-cost NOW
 e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real
space, 20,000 visitors on Internet
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http://research.microsoft.com/acm97
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Today’s
Experiment
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Would you like to pause, rewind, browse?
Do you wish you could have seen this
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At home?
At another time?
How much does a present speaker add?
How much would you pay for real
presence?
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Telework: It takes screens,
sound, and bandwidth, stupid
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http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
“
By April 1, 2001
videophones will ship in
50% of the PCs
and be in use.
”
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray
1996 (one paper,
loser gets fed)
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Telecommuting versus time
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Teleworking CW 9/1/97
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15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk
42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies
(screening, worker expectations, liability, IP
protection, etc.
Are telecommuters more productive?
– 30% yes
– 50% same
– 4% no
– 16% don’t know
Are telecommuters more accessible?
– 13% yes
– 40% same
– 40% no
– 7% don’t know
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Telepresence
hold a meeting of type, m
university or technical course
interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board
meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,
with p, distributed persons
with as much interactivity and feeling
such that people prefer being telepresent
meetings are provably more productive
meetings will evolve to be asynchronous
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versus traditional synchronous
Mobile
videophone
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Honda
Robot
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Living in Cyberspace
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SOHO (small office, home office)
network computing environment
POTS
(legacy services)
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone,
videophone) >1.5 Mbps
NT Server for:
comm/network, POTS/IP
gateway, file, print, compute
LAN
PC
Phone
...
PC
Phone
NC*
*NC, NetPC,
Xterm, etc.
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Phone
...
Problems of living & working in
Cyberspace: socio vs technical
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Isolation & loneliness
– need for communication/stimulation
– chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas
– loss of group/teamwork skills
– danger of becoming “terminal”
interruptions & focus
lack of support staff to help, answer ?s
supervision and ability to have 1:1
unclear that many people want it…
they simply need the contactCIO
withCongress
people
A People Model:
Who wants to be in Cyberspace?
Spock
Analyticals.. Drivers…
being right, results orient.
detailed
formal
broadcast
(in writing)
email
- push
megaloanal
maniacs
retentives
Self-control
Amiables… Expressives...
informal
consensus want
recognition,
(verbal)
builders
need contact
--------------chat---------------spineless
Sally Field
psychotics
wimps
Souter
Evangelism
Managing
Interpersonal
Relationships
(MIR)
2D Model
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Swaggert