Transcript 3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary Route to Wireless Data

Access to the Global Internet:
Which Technology Will Win?
For most of the world in 5 years (aside from North America and part of Europe):
Phone = Cell Phone
Internet = Wireless Internet
•
Evolution
+ 3G builds on existing networks
+ Huge volumes
+ Global spectrum
– Separate network
– Optimized for voice
– Old technology
6/5/2000
•
Revolution
+
+
+
+
IP networks
Optimized air interfaces
Design for converged traffic
New technology for low cost
– No global spectrum or approval
– No market momentum
– Timing?
Richard E. Howard
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Industry Directions for Networking
1998
1994
1990
•
•
6/5/2000
1992
1st GPRS
customers
GPRS standards
begin
FPLMTS
standards begin
3M Internet
Users
1995
Microsoft & AT&T still
competing with Internet
2000
153M Internet
Users
Cellular Telecom Approach
– Efforts to define wireless data networking standard
(General Packet Radio Service - GPRS) begin before full
impact of Internet explosion is felt
Internet-Based Approach
– Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with
extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g.,
GPRS, CDMA2000)
Richard E. Howard
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3G Mobility:
The “Evolutionary” Route to Wireless Data
Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard
Bell Labs, Lucent Technology
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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3G Cellular Systems:
The Enabler of the Global Internet
First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless
Wireless
Network
Wireless Networks
become the point of access
that funnels end user
experience into the
Internet
Internet
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
4
Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision
GPRS/
EDGE/
TDMA
Base
Station
Wireless Backbone and Gateways
• codec converter
• bandwidth manager
• store & forward
• playback
Multimedia &
Messaging
Server
• integrated
voice and data
• video postcards
• in-call image
up/download
UMTS/
CDMA2000
Base
Station
Bluetooth
IP Network
Content
Cable, xDSL, V90
10/100-BaseT
Radio Hub
Location
Services
Wi-Fi (WaveLAN)
Wireless PAN
6/5/2000
Wireless LAN
Richard E. Howard
5
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
Circuit-Switched
Circuit-Switched Voice
Packet-Switched Data
Packet-Switched
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
Packet
Data
GPRS
EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
Packet Voice & Data
over EDGE
IS-136+
EDGE
GPRS: General Packet Radio Service
(17.6 kbps x 8)
EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution
(59.2 kbps x 8)
UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
6/5/2000
UMTS
CDMA2000
Packet Voice & Data
over UMTS (WCDMA)
Richard E. Howard
6
Mobility Subscriber Projections:
Analyst View
1.3B by 2004
1200
Ovum
Goldman Sachs
1100
1000
EMC
900
IDC
800
Herschel Shosteck
Merrill Lynch
700
600
Nokia Press Release
500
Ericsson Press Release
400
Lucent View
300
200
5/99 Est
100
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Ovum
283
363
433
500
562
Goldman Sachs
295
385
483
EMC
299
421
569
730
896
1049
IDC
257
325
396
Herschel Shosteck
298
405
519
Merrill Lynch
301
397
493
588
683
766
2004
2005
840
913
10000
Nokia Press Release
Ericsson Press Release
Lucent View
6/5/2000
5/99 Est EMC
300
390
490
600
700
800
300.5
390.7
477.8
564.9
675.3
809.2
924.5
1041
Richard E. Howard
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The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap
($ Millions)
Today’s IP Market
Today’s Voice Market
Data Services
37,092
Switched Telephony
Internet Access
15,471
Fax
IP Telephony
64,775
1,890
IP VPN
Total
462,763
419
54,872
Today’s IP Market
Today’s Voice Market
Total
527,538
=
9.4%
Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode
• Service offered:
- Security trading (2 traders)
- Banking (31 banks)
- Travel
- Concert tickets
- News
- Network game
- Total of 1300 I-mode web sites
• Subscriber uptake:
- Service Launch February 22, 1999
- 20,000 in March
- 100,000 in April
- 90.000 new subscribers/week in August
- August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users)
- E-mail and mobile banking most popular
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year
(and the Rate is Increasing)
~140,000 new
subscribers/week
DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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Wonder Swan
•Hand-held Game Device
•Sold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year
•Email send and receive (SMTP)
•Internet Access (mini-browser)
•Remote download of mini-games
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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Wireless Data in the Japan Market
Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market Segment
Cost of Service is “Clearly” Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents)
High School Girls
10 YEN P-Mail
Business
Professional
Value Mail
Capability
Speed 64K
Market
Segment
Application
64K
H.S. Girl
6/5/2000
Dating Connection
Richard E. Howard
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Mobility: Data vs Voice
•
Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice
– BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice
– US is behind Europe and Japan
• Japan is approaching 50% data traffic
•
Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient
– 2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3
– 3G systems have
• IP backbones
• Lower cost per bit
• Easy service creation
•
What will be the services?
• Who will pay the bills?
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
13
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems
Circuit-Switched
Circuit-Switched Voice
Packet-Switched Data
Packet-Switched
GSM Circuit-Switched Voice
Packet
Data
GPRS
EDGE
IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice
Packet Voice & Data
over EDGE
IS-136+
EDGE
GPRS: General Packet Radio Service
(17.6 kbps x 8)
EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution
(59.2 kbps x 8)
UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems
6/5/2000
UMTS
CDMA2000
Packet Voice & Data
over UMTS (WCDMA)
Richard E. Howard
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Mobility Subscriber Projections: by Technology
UMTS
1200000
GSM
TDMA (3G)
TDMA
cdma2000
cdmaOne
UMTS
1000000
800000
600000
GSM
Analog
Other
400000
200000
Subscribers in Thousands
0
UMTS
GSM
TDMA (3G)
TDMA
cdma2000
cdmaOne
6/5/2000
Lucent WNG View
1997
1998
1999
2000
0
0
0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
6745 14897 30641 56955
69653 12935 19285 25262 37672 45591 50086 53171
0
0
0
0
140
885
2660
5445
6833 14343 23932 35560 65122 83438 10399 12685
0
0
0
0
1285
6000 15435 27519
7109 20642 36216 56735 11130 14577 18394 22237
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3G Data Options
Wireless
Technology
Spectral
Bandwidth
Modeled
Throughput
Peak Data Rate
3G-1X
1.25 MHz for
Data
100-180 Kbps
305 Kbps
(mobile)
HDR
1.25 MHz for
Data
400-600 Kbps
2.4 Mbps
(fixed/mobile)
1H2002
190-275 Kbps
384 Kbps
(mobile)
1H2002
330-370 Kbps
384 Kbps
(mobile)
1H2002
EDGE Compact 1 MHz for Data
EDGE Classic
2.7 MHz for
Data
Wideband
CDMA-DS
5 MHz for
Voice/Data
480-720 Kbps
Wideband
CDMA-3X
5 MHz for Data
480-720 Kbps
6/5/2000
2 Mbps (fixed)
384 Kbps
(mobile)
2 Mbps (fixed)
384 Kbps
(mobile)
Expected Market
Introduction
1H2001
(144Kbps peak rate)
1H2001 (Japan)
1H2002 (Eur/NA)
2H2002
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Transition to Next Generation Networks
Today’s Wireless Networks
Next Generation Networks
Internet / Advanced Services
PSTN
Mobile
Switches
MSC

Wireless
Control
Servers
Circuit
Mode
Servers
High Speed Data,
Multimedia, Voice
over IP, etc.
Feature Control, Network
Management, Billing, etc
Voice, LS
Circuit Data,
etc.
…
…
99% Mobile Voice
Circuit Derived
Packet
Mode
Servers
Network
Servers
IP / ATM Core Network
Base
Stations

PSTN
Radio
Clients
Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline
 Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP)

The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable
universal services and reduce network cost structure.
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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Services Rollout
3G
Video
WAP
launch
Visual, High
Speed
Web cam
GPRS
Intranet
Video clips
TV Conference
Music
Mobile Office
Schedule Management
Work flow Management
Electronic Conference
File Sharing
SMS
1Q1999
6/5/2000
m-banking
m-stock trading
Information
email
Services
4Q1999
Interactive TV
Radio
Multi-player
Games
Portal Link
m-cash
Chat
Room
Web access
Picture clips
Route planning
4Q2000
4Q2001
Richard E. Howard
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The Devices are Awesome
•
Docomo
•
Pocketboard
Motorola
StarTAC™ clipOn
Organizer
NeoPoint™
1600 smartphone
Nokia
7110 phone &
9110 Communicator
Samsung MP3 Phone
6/5/2000
Ericsson
R320 WAP Phone
& MC218
Mobile Companion
QUALCOMM
pdQ™ smartphone
Bandai
WonderSwan
Sharp
Zaurus
1
0
Richard E. Howard
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Can 3G Deliver?:
UMTS Capacity Estimates
•
Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice
– 3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz
– 2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks.
•
For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 )
– 1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way.
– About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license
• => ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps
•
Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations
– Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps
– Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X
•
If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3)
– ~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal
– Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible
Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00
6/5/2000
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Will UMTS Happen?:
Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction
License
A
B
C
D
E
Winner
TIW UMTS (UK) Limited
Vodaphone Limited
BT (3G) Limited
One2One Personal Communications Limited
Orange 3G Limited
Price
£ 4,384,700,000
£ 5,964,000,000
£ 4,030,100,000
£ 4,003,600,000
£ 4,095,000,000
~$34B says it will!
Rest of Europe by Fall
6/5/2000
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Backups
6/5/2000
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Multiple Access Schemes
6/5/2000
FDMA
TDMA
Different Carriers
Different Time Slots
CDMA
FHSS
Different “Languages”
Orthogonal Time Slots & Carriers
Richard E. Howard
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Enhanced Data for Global Evolution
(EDGE)
•
•
•
•
Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate
circuit and packet data services
Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network
with adaptive modulation and coding
Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels
Two versions of EDGE:
– EDGE Classic enables full backwards
compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)
– EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum
(< 1 MHz) deployments
•
Channel structure supports:
– Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps
– Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to
200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limited
spectrum deployments)
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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Wireless data network
Macrocell-mobile
r~3-5 km
Minicell-mobile
r~1 km
Picocell-pedestrian
r~100 m
Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size
•
•
•
Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD)
Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD)
Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN)
BLAST technology used in every one
6/5/2000
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Internet Volume Approaches Voice
B
i
t
s
/
s
e
c
1.E+14
1.E+13
Worldwide voice/modem traffic
1.E+12
1.E+11
1.E+10
1.E+09
1.E+08
1.E+07
1.E+06
1.E+05
1.E+04
Actual 
1.E+03
1.E+02
1.E+01
1.E+00
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Projected Crossover Data=10xVoice
1999
2000
Voice/Modem
Total Internet
 Projected
Jan-98
Jan-99
WWW
Jan-00
New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactive
services approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks
Source: Internet Society
6/5/2000
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Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP:
Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal
IP Client in terminal
for Voice and
packet data
SGSN
Mob
Manager
GGSN
7RE
Feature
Servers
• Packet Voice (VOIP) starts
with an IP Client in the
terminal, the call model
resides in feature servers
7RE
Resource on the IP network.
7RE
Signaling
Gateways
Servers
IP/ATM Core Network
Traditional
Circuit voice
supported by
MSC
Packet
Gateway
5ESS
Switch
Customer
Care NM
Servers
Packet
Gateway
To Data and VOIP
Gateways
Circuit
Data IWF
APs
APs
Call
Control
Servers
• Traditional Circuit voice
is supported as before.
PSTN
ANSI-41
Backbone
Network
Use Today’s Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect
with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.
6/5/2000
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Enhanced Data for Global Evolution …
(continued)
•
•
•
Handoff enabled through reselection procedures
Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGE
in GSM Release 2000
Phase 1
– Standards: Release ’99
– Large deployments start in 2002
• Some initial deployments start in 2001
– Supports best effort packet data
at speeds up to about 384 kbps
•
Phase 2
– Standards: Release 2000
– Large deployments start in 2003
• Some initial deployments start in 2002
– Will add Voice over IP capability
6/5/2000
Richard E. Howard
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3G Solution Direction
•
•
•
6/5/2000
One Network delivering Voice and Data services
– Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market
needs
– IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services
– Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry
– Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability
(99.999%)
Flexible Service Creation
– Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments
– Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services
– Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value added
interfaces
• Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider
Rapid Network Deployment
– Easy to install and maintain
– Self Optimizing
– Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs
Richard E. Howard
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