Transcript ICT and NGN: innovation for a better quality of life

ITU Workshop
“New generation Networks;
what, when and how”
Geneva 9-10 July 2003
“ICT and NGN: innovation for a better
quality of life”
Claudio Carrelli
Director Eurescom
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Content
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Technology and Networks
The social impact
The “digital” world
Standards and cooperation
Final conclusions
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Three points to remember what
went “good”
• The boom of “personal communication”
• The triumph of “networking”
• The new concept of “always on”
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And three to remember what
went “wrong”
• The bubble “burst”
• The irrational fever of “merges and
acquisitions”
• The excessive predominance of “finance”
rather than focus on service innovation
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Some initial suggestions
• Do not try to “re-create the past”
• Concentrate on the opportunities of
“mobile” “broadband” and “multimedia”
• Target on innovation and flexibility
• Identify and exploit new services for
“home environment” and “infomobility”
• Grasp the opportunity of cooperation
even in a competitive environment
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Balancing technology and
users needs
ICT for a better quality of life
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Laser technology
• Invented in the seventies
• Immediately named as a “solution
looking for a problem”
• Nowadays no HI-FI music, no letter
printing and no more long distance
telephone calls without laser technology
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The “Tron House”
• The first “intelligent house”
• Completed in in 1989 (Nishi Azabu, Japan)
• Key concept: fusion of “humans”, “nature”
and “computers”
• A total of 380 computers, all of them
interconnected via the “TRON Architecture”
• Dismantled in '94
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The “home” environment
• Will ICT improve our quality of life?
• Yes, it will, if we do not just
concentrate on technology
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The relevance of
“quality of life!”
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The first TV remote control in 1950
Called “Lazy bones” and wireline
..Flashmatic, ..Spacecommand..1956
Its percentage on price exceeded 30%
How much would you save today to live
without it?
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Two main comments on future
developments and
key to success
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1.Local first, networked follows
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Stereo records and stereo broadcast
Movies and TV
Photo and telephoto
DVD ... HDTV
Multimedia terminal equipment, and then
broadband communication
• Intelligent housewares ….networked home
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2.Simplicity will win
• The success of a simpler technology
against a more complex one:
• Telephone over telegraph
• IP and internet vs ISDN
• SMS vs ISDN D-channel
• i-mode vs WAP
• Blue-tooth vs DECT
• ….and what about Wi-Fi?
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Network evolution
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The basic pillars of telecom
networks
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Switching systems (nodes)
Transmission systems (links)
Access network
Terminal equipment
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The temple of telecommunications
networks
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The “Easy Side” of the Problem
• Trunk network
• High capacity
• Flexible multiplexing
• Variable bandwidth
• Customer premises equipment
• Advanced multimedia technology
• High bandwidth, bursty traffic requirements
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… And the More Challenging
Issues
• Access network
Copper wire
optical fibre/coax
wireless technology
• Switching technology
synchronous/asynchronous
integrated/overlaid
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The temple of telecommunications
networks
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The mandatory school (I)
•PCM technology
•Digital transmission
•Digital hierarchy
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The mandatory school (II)
•SPC exchanges
•Digital switching
•Common channel
signalling
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The mandatory school (III)
•Intelligent networks
•ISDN
•Mobile services
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And then,... what new life?
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The answer is not so easy!
• ..”total “digitalization”, telecom liberalization,
internet, XDSL, DWDM on optical fibre, WiFi, ultra-wide band, SW radio,…
• The impact of disruptive elements has
radically altered the old approach mainly
oriented to follow a predetermined path
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The evolving role of ...Telcos
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Voltage carriers (telegraph)
Frequency carriers (telephony)
Bit carriers (digital era)
Information networking (middleware
platforms)
• Domotics, infomobility and infotainement
(new services at home and on the road)
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We live in a digital world
• All type of information, no matter if voice,
data, text, music, video, image, or other,
may be reduced to a “handful of bits”
• And these bits can be:
• processed
• transmitted or
• stored
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The big competition in the ICT
game
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Storage capacity
Processing power
Transmission capacity
Is it cheaper a stored bit, a processed bit
or a travelling bit?
• How will its cost vary with time?
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A weaving of laws
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Moore’s law
Gilder’s law
Metcalf’s law
Telecosm’s law
Amdahl’s law
Conduits and content law
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And what new role for IP?
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What impact on network
architecture?
• A well known rule of thumb:
• Transmission is cheap:
circuit switching
• Processing is cheap:
packet switching
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The Paradox of the “best
network”
• Intelligent networks have been continuously
upgraded and optimized for voice services
• But…today's optimization might be ..
tomorrow's bottleneck
• Should a network be “intelligent” or “stupid”?
• The best network just moves bits
• But ….. the best network is the hardest one
to make money running
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What future: fix or mobile?
A provocative view
• The future will be more and more in the
fixed network,…..
• …but the growing wireless access will
give us the impression to be mobile
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
P 
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C  W log 2 1 
 N0W 
C = Capacity [kbit/s]
P = Signal Power
W = Bandwidth
N0 = Noise
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The myth of Broadband
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A provocative view
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Broadband already exists
It is spread everywhere
Consumers like it
It is very cheap
….it is Television!!
…. but it is mainly broadcast!
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The illusion of the value of the
Mbyte
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What pricing strategy?
• Eyes and networks use different
measuring sticks.
• It is important to grasp this difference if
we want to make money.
• The cost of a service is related to the
network complexity needed to deliver it,
• ...but its price must be related to the value
human eyes put on it.
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Rethinking R&D
• R&D is a major driver for value
• The relevance to develop “options”
We must crack a lot of rock to find a diamond
• Collaborative R&D through networking will
become critical, particularly due to lack of
human and financial resources
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EURESCOM
A Virtual Company for Collaborative R&D
www.eurescom.de
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EURESCOM
Providing Network Solutions
• Access Networks - Increasing the
bandwidth
• In House Networks - Supporting the
Customer
• Core Networks - Optimising the
infrastructure
• New Aspects - new concepts (e.g.
always on)
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The relevance of access
• The frontier of inequality will be no more
between:
• rich and poor
• capital and human resources
• cities and rural areas
• But,….…between who
• “has” and who “has not” access to the net
UNO Dev. report
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Four messages
• Do not be dogmatic: deploy present
technology and monitor its evolution!!
• Avoid the “network-centric” approach and
concentrate on “human centredness”
• ICT technologies will enable a variety of
applications for a better quality of life
• Be proactive on future development
Broadband and mobile
revolutions are ready to take off..
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Thank you for your attention
Enjoy your Workshop!
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