Transcript Software is eating the world.

Tom Peters’
!
EXCELLENCE
Foodservice Equipment Distributors Association
31 March 2016/Tucson
(Slides available at tompeters.com)
Conrad Hilton
CONRAD HILTON, at a gala celebrating
his career, was called to the podium and
“What were the
most important
lessons you learned
in your long and
distinguished
career?” His answer …
asked,
“Remember
to tuck the
shower curtain
inside the
bathtub.”
IS
“EXECUTION
STRATEGY.”
—Fred Malek
Software Is
Eating the
World
“Software is
eating the
world.”
—Marc Andreessen
“Automation has become so
sophisticated that on a typical
passenger flight, a human pilot holds
the controls for a grand total of …
3 minutes
.
[Pilots] have become, it’s not
much of an exaggeration to say,
computer operators.”
Source: Nicholas Carr, “The Great Forgetting,” The Atlantic, 11.13
“[Michael Vassar/
MetaMed founder] is creating a better information system and
‘Almost all
health care people get is
going to be done—
hopefully—by algorithms
within a decade or two.
new class of people to manage it.
We used to rely on doctors to be experts, and we’ve crowded them into being
something like factory workers, where their job is to see one patient every 8 to 11
minutes and implement a by-the-book solution. I’m talking about creating a
new ‘expert profession’—medical quants, almost like hedgefund
managers, who could do the high-level analytical work of directing
all the information that flows into the world’s hard drives.
Doctors would now be aided by Vassar’s new information experts who would be
aided by advanced artificial intelligence.”—New York /0624.13
“Human level
capability has not
turned out to be a
special stopping point
from an engineering
perspective. ...”
Source: Illah Reza Nourbakhsh, Professor of Robotics, Carnegie Mellon,
Robot Futures
AlphaGo Beats Go Grandmaster
“This technology is going to cut through the global economy like a hot knife through
butter. It learns fast and largely on its own. It's widely applicable. It doesn't only
master what it has seen, it can innovate. For example: some of the unheard of moves
made by AlphaGo were considered ‘beautiful’ by the Grandmaster it beat.
“Limited AGI/Artificial General Intelligence
(deep learning in particular) will have the ability to
do nearly any job currently being done by
human beings—from lawyers to judges,
nurses to doctors, driving to
construction—potentially at a
grandmaster's level of capability. This
makes it a buzzsaw.
“Very few people—and I mean very few—will be able to stay ahead of the limited AGI
buzzsaw. It learns so quickly, the fate of people stranded in former factory towns
gutted by ‘free trade’ is likely to be the fate of the highest paid technorati. They
simply don't have the capacity to learn fast enough or be creative enough to stay
ahead of it.” —John Robb/Global Guerrillas/
03/12/16
IoT/Internet of Things
IoE/The Internet of Everything
M2M/Machine-to-Machine
Ubiquitous computing
Embedded computing
Pervasive computing
Industrial Internet
Etc.* ** *** ****
212 BILLION connected devices by 2020—IDC
**Estimated IoT market size, next decade: $14.4 trillion
*** “By 2025 IoT could be applicable to $82 trillion of output or
*Estimated
approximately one half the global economy”—GE (GE is literally betting
its existence and the future on the IoT, Bloomberg/03.2016)
100,000,000,000,000 [100 trillion]
****
sensors/2030 —Michael Patrick Lynch, The Internet of Us
Primary source: “The Big Switch,” Capital Insights
Sensor Pills: “Proteus Digital Health is one of several pioneers in
They make a silicon chip
the size of a grain of sand that is
embedded into a safely digested pill that
is swallowed. When the chip mixes with
stomach acids, the processor is powered
by the body’s electricity and transmits
data to a patch worn on the skin. That
patch, in turn, transmits data via
Bluetooth to a mobile app, which then
transmits the data to a central database
where a health technician can verify if a
patient has taken her or his medications.
sensor-based health technology.
—Robert Scoble and Shel Israel, Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors, Data and the Future of Privacy
China/Foxconn:
1,000,000
robots/next 3 years
Source: Race AGAINST the Machine, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee
“Since 1996, manufacturing employment in
China itself has actually
fallen
25 percent.
That’s over 30,000,000
fewer Chinese workers in that sector,
by an estimated
even while output soared by 70 percent. It’s not
that American workers are being replaced by Chinese workers. It’s that
both American and Chinese workers are being made more efficient
[replaced] by automation.” —Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee,
The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity
in a Time of Brilliant Technologies
20/5
“It
takes 20 years to
build a reputation
and 5 minutes to
ruin it. Also, the Internet and
Welcome to the Age of Social Media:
technology have made customers more
demanding., and they expect information,
answers, products, responses, and
resolutions sooner than ASAP.”
—John DiJulius, The Customer Service Revolution
“What used to be “word of mouth” is
You are
either creating brand
ambassadors or brand
terrorists doing brand
assassination.”
now “word of mouse.”
—John DiJulius, The Customer Service Revolution: Overthrow
Conventional Business, Inspire Employees, and Change the World
“The
customer is in
complete control of
communication.”
Welcome to the Age of Social Media:
—John DiJulius, The Customer Service Revolution: Overthrow
Conventional Business, Inspire Employees, and Change the World
“We’re moving toward an age of nearly perfect
information. Review sites, shopping apps on
smartphones, an extended network of acquaintances
available through social media, and unprecedented
access to experts mean that consumers operate in a
radically different, socially interactive information
environment.* … Consumers tend to make better
decisions and become less susceptible to context or
framing manipulations. For businesses, it means
marketing is changing forever.”
—Itamar Simonson and Emanuel Rosen,
Value:
Absolute
What Really Influences Customers in the
Age of (Nearly) Perfect Information
*Google:
ZMOT/84
(ZERO Moment Of Truth)
“I would rather engage in a
Twitter conversation with a
single customer than see our
company attempt to attract the
attention of millions in a coveted
Super Bowl commercial.
Why? Because having
people discuss your brand directly with you, actually connecting one-to-one, is far
more valuable—not to mention far cheaper!. …
“Consumers want to discuss what they like, the companies they support, and the
organizations and leaders they resent. They want a community. They want to be heard.
“[I]f we engage employees, customers, and prospective customers in meaningful
dialogue about their lives, challenges, interests, and concerns, we can build a
community of trust, loyalty, and—possibly over time—help them become advocates and
champions for the brand.”
—Peter Aceto, CEO,
Tangerine (from the Foreword to A World Gone Social:
How Companies Must Adapt to Survive, by Ted Coine & Mark Babbit)
Going “Social”: Location/Size Independent
River Pools and Spas/$5M/Warsaw VA
“Today, despite the fact that we’re just a little swimming
most
trafficked swimming pool
website in the world. Five years ago, if
pool company in Virginia, we have the
you’d asked me and my business partners what we do, the
answer would have been simple, ‘We build in-ground
‘We are
the best teachers … in the
world … on the subject of fiberglass swimming pools,
fiberglass swimming pools.’ Now we say,
and we also happen to build them.’” (Mktg: $250K-$20K)
—Marcus
Sheridan, in Jay Baer, Youtility: Why Smart Marketing Is About Help, Not Hype
Seymour CT/
Motueka NZ/
Warsaw VA/
Fairfield OH/
Frankenmuth MI
!
Rock
*Larry Janesky/Seymour CT/
Basement Systems Inc.++
*Dry Basement Science ++/
27 patents
*400 dealers/6 countries
*Awards+++++
*>$100,000,000
The Magicians of
Motueka (PLUS)
!
W.A. Coppins Ltd.*
(Coppins Sea Anchors/
PSA/para sea anchors)
*Textiles, 1898; thrive on
—e.g.,
“wicked problems”
U.S. Navy STLVAST (Small To Large Vehicle At Sea
W. Wiggins Ltd./Wellington
(specialty nylon, “Dyneema,” from DSM/Netherlands)
Transfer); custom fabric from
Retail Superstars:
Inside the 25 Best
Independent Stores
in America
—by George Whalin
JUNGLE JIM’S INTERNATIONAL MARKET, FAIRFIELD, OH: “An adventure in
‘shoppertainment,’
1,600
1,400
$8-$8,000
4,000
begins in the parking
lot and goes on to
cheeses and
varieties of
hot sauce—not to mention 12,000 wines priced from
a bottle; all this is brought to you by
vendors.
Customers from every corner of the globe.”
BRONNER’S CHRISTMAS WONDERLAND, FRANKENMUTH, MI, POP 5,000:
98,000
50,000
-square-foot “shop” features
ornaments,
6,000
Christmas
trims, and anything else you can name
pertaining to Christmas. …”
Source: George Whalin, Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best Independent Stores in America
“BE THE BEST.
IT’S THE ONLY
MARKET THAT’S
NOT CROWDED.”
From: Retail Superstars: Inside the 25 Best
Independent Stores in America, George Whalin
Hidden Champions* of the 21st Century: Success
Secrets of Unknown World Market Leaders/
Hermann Simon
(*1, 2, or 3 in world market; <$4B; low public awareness)
80%
Baader (Iceland/
fish-processing systems)
Gallagher (NZ/electric
fences)
W.E.T. (heated car seat
tech)
Gerriets (theater curtains
and stage equipment)
Electro-Nite (sensors for the
steel industry)
Essel Propack (India/tooth
paste tubes)
SGS (product auditing and
certification)
DELO (specialty adhesives)
Amorim (Portugal/cork
products)
EOS (laser sintering)
Beluga (heavy-lift
shipping)
Omicron (tunnel-grid
microscopy)
Universo (wristwatch
hands)
Dickson Constant
(technical textiles)
O.C. Tanner (employee
recognition/$400M)
Hoeganaes (powder
metallurgy supplies)
Michael Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed: THE THREE RULES:
How Exceptional Companies Think*:
1. Better before cheaper.
2. Revenue before cost.
3. There are no other rules.
(*From a database of over 25,000 companies from hundreds of industries covering 45 years, they
uncovered 344 companies that qualified as statistically “exceptional.”)
Jeff Colvin, Fortune: “The Economy Is Scary … But Smart
Companies Can Dominate”:
They manage for VALUE—not for EPS.
They get RADICALLY CUSTOMER-CENTRIC.
THEY KEEP DEVELOPING HUMAN CAPITAL.
“ ‘Commodity’ is a
state of mind.
ANYTHING can be
DRAMATICALLY
differentiated.”
Bo Burlingham,
Small Giants: Companies That Choose to Be Great Instead of Big)
P
S
U
S
to
UP
“Rolls-Royce now earns
MORE from tasks
such as managing clients’
overall procurement
strategies and maintaining
aerospace engines it
sells than it does from
making them.” —Economist
PS
UPS
U
to
“Big Brown’s New Bag: UPS
Aims to Be the Traffic Manager
for Corporate America” —Headline/BW
“UPS wants to take over the
sweet spot in the endless loop
of goods, information and
capital that all the packages
[it moves] represent.” —ecompany.com
“It’s all about
SOLUTIONS. We talk
with customers about how
to run better, stronger,
cheaper supply chains. We
have 1,000 engineers who
work with customers …”
—Bob Stoffel, UPS senior exec
UPS =
United
Problem
Solvers*
*Service mark
“THE GIANT STALKING BIG OIL:
Schlumberger
How
Is Rewriting the Rules of the
Energy Game.”: “IPM
[INTEGRATED PROJECT
MANAGEMENT] strays from
[Schlumberger’s] traditional role as
a service provider and moves
deeper into areas once dominated
by the majors.” —BusinessWeek
I. LAN Installation Co.
II. GEEK SQUAD.
(3% local market share)
(30% local market share with name change.)
III. Acquired by Best Buy.
IV. FLAGSHIP OF BEST BUY’s
WHOLESALE “SOLUTIONS”
STRATEGY MAKEOVER.
1. What are you INCREDIBLY GOOD at?
(And what are you ordinary at? BE BRUTAL.)
2. What are you “BEST IN THE WORLD” at?
(The “River Pools and Spas Rule”)
3. Is your services package “WILDLY
IMAGINATIVE”? (And growing constantly
via TGRs, etc.?)
4. What share of profit comes from what
share of customers? (The “>100%+ RULE”)
(The “Tom Sturgess Rule”) (Prune???)
5. What is your customer/vendor visitation
schedule (The “Lou Gerstner/1-year rule”)
6. Is your staff “INSANELY WELL TRAINED”?
18 Seconds
“The doctor
interrupts
after …*
*Source: Jerome Groopman, How Doctors Think
18 …
18 …
seconds!
Suggested
Core Value
#1: “We are Effective
Listeners—we treat
Listening EXCELLENCE
as the Centerpiece of our
Commitment to Respect
and Engagement and
Profitability and Growth.”
“PEOPLE
BEFORE
STRATEGY”
“PEOPLE
BEFORE
STRATEGY”
—Lead article, Harvard Business Review. July-August 2015,
by Ram Charan, Dominic Barton, and Dennis Carey
“You have to
treat your
employees like
customers.”
—Herb Kelleher,
upon being asked his “secret to success”
Source: Joe Nocera, NYT, “Parting Words of an Airline Pioneer,”
on the occasion of Herb Kelleher’s retirement after 37 years at Southwest
Airlines (SWA’s pilots union took out a full-page ad in USA Today
thanking HK for all he had done) ; across the way in Dallas, American
Airlines’ pilots were picketing AA’s Annual Meeting)
1996-2014/Twelve companies have been among the
“100 best to work for” in the USA every year, for all 16
years of the list’s existence; along the way, they’ve added/
341,567 new jobs, or job growth of +172%:
Publix
Whole Foods
Wegmans
Nordstrom
Cisco Systems
Marriott
REI
Goldman Sachs
Four Seasons
SAS Institute
W.L. Gore
TDIndustries
Source: Fortune/ “The 100 Best Companies to Work For”/0315.15
“Shyp, a company that picks up, packages,
and ships items for its users, made a similar
transition to hiring employees for some roles in
July. In a blogpost, Shyp CEO Kevin Gibbon
explained that the change was "an investment
in a longer-term relationship with our
couriers, which we believe will ultimately
create the best experience for our
customers." –Sarah Kessler, Fast Company, 0329.16,
“Why A New Generation Of On-Demand
Businesses Rejected The Uber Model” (“The
idea that an ‘Uber for X’ model could fit any
service proved arrogant, especially for
customer-service focused startups.”)
Training = Investment
#1
(The “6/2/3 Rule”/Ask the general & boomer captain.)
THE FOUR MOST IMPORTANT WORDS IN ANY ORGANIZATION
“WHAT
DO YOU
THINK?”
ARE …
Source: courtesy Dave Wheeler, posted at tompeters.com
“Employees who
don't feel significant
rarely make
significant
contributions.”
—Mark Sanborn
CEO Doug Conant
30,000
handwritten ‘Thank
sent
you’ notes to employees
during the 10 years
he ran Campbell Soup.
[approx 10/day]
Source: Bloomberg BusinessWeek
“It may sound radical, unconventional, and
bordering on being a crazy business idea.
However— as ridiculous as it sounds—joy is the
core belief of our workplace.
Joy
is the reason my company,
Menlo Innovations, a customer software design
and development firm in Ann Arbor, exists. It
defines what we do and how we do it. It is the
single shared belief of our entire team.”
Joy, Inc.:
How We Built a Workplace People Love
—Richard Sheridan,
…………..…
TGR >
TGW
Customers describing their service
experience as “superior”:
8%
Companies describing
the service experience they provide as
“superior”:
80%
Bain & Company survey of 362 companies
—Source:
, reported in
John DiJulius, What's the Secret to Providing a World-class Customer Experience?
“May I clean
your glasses,
sir?”
Get
’Em Away From the ATM and Into the Branches:
7X.
7:30A-8:00P. Fri/12A.
7:30AM = 7:15AM.
8:00PM = 8:15PM.
(+2,000,000 dog biscuits)
Source: Vernon Hill, Fans, Not Customers (the story of Commerce Bank,
the folks who revolutionized East Coast retail banking)
“Courtesies of a small
and trivial character
are the ones which
strike deepest in the
grateful and
appreciating heart.”
—Henry Clay
TGRs
L(
(on steroids):
)BTs
ery
Big carts =
Source: Walmart
Las Vegas Casino/2X:
slightly
curved
“When Friedman
the right angle of an
entrance corridor to one property, he was
‘amazed at the magnitude of change in
pedestrian behavior’—the percentage who
one-third to
nearly two-thirds.”
entered increased from
—Natasha Dow Schull, Addiction By Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas
With a new and forthcoming policy on
apologies … Toro, the lawn mower folks,
reduced the average cost of settling a claim
$115,000 in 1991 to
$35,000 in 2008 … and the
company hasn’t
been to trial in the
last15 years!
from
…………..
WTTMSW
WHOEVER
TRIES
THE
MOST
STUFF
WINS
“EXPERIMENT
FEARLESSLY”
TACTIC #1
Source: BusinessWeek, “Type A Organization Strategies: How to Hit a Moving Target”—
“RELENTLESS TRIAL
AND ERROR”
Source: Wall Street Journal, cornerstone of effective approach to “rebalancing” company
portfolios in the face of changing and uncertain global economic conditions
Kevin Roberts’ Credo
1. Ready. Fire! Aim.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
If it ain’t broke ... Break it!
Hire crazies.
Ask dumb questions.
Pursue failure.
Lead, follow ... or get out of the way!
Spread confusion.
Ditch your office.
Read odd stuff.
10.
AVOID MODERATION!
“INSANELY GREAT”
STEVE JOBS
“RADICALLY THRILLING”
BMW
“ASTONISH ME”
SERGEI DIAGHLEV, TO A LEAD DANCER
“BUILD SOMETHING GREAT”
HIROSHI YAMAUCHI, NINTENDO, TO A SENIOR GAME DESIGNER
“MAKE IT IMMORTAL”
DAVID OGILVY, TO A COPYWRITER.
1. What are you INCREDIBLY GOOD at?
(And what are you ordinary at? BE BRUTAL.)
2. What are you “BEST IN THE WORLD” at?
(The “River Pools and Spas Rule”)
3. Is your services package “WILDLY
IMAGINATIVE”? (And growing constantly
via TGRs, etc.?)
4. What share of profit comes from what
share of customers? (The “>100%+ RULE”)
(The “Tom Sturgess Rule”) (Prune???)
5. What is your customer/vendor visitation
schedule (The “Lou Gerstner/1-year rule”)
6. Is your staff “INSANELY WELL TRAINED”?