Transcript Only saw when things went wrong

Weather Technology in the Cockpit
Brandon Lundeen
Shawn Pruchnicki MS ATP CFII
Seth Young PhD CFI
Center for Aviation Studies
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What is weather technology?
How does WTIC effect GA?
What are the costs of using WTIC?
How does the industry adapt?
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• Emergence of new technology
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Differences in use and training
• Analysis of pilot decision making
• Correcting for edge cases
• Future work
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Feinberg and Tauss (2002):
• Updated weather technology varies in
price
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$2,000 to $50,000
• Costs continue after installation
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$10-$1,300 per month, plus connection fees
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Other work:
• Weather technology can increase
situational awareness (Ahlstrom 2012)
• Not all changes are positive (Williams 2012)
• Training not keeping up (Lanicci 2012)
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Non-monetary costs of use (Talotta 1997):
• Use of screens can be disorienting
• “Head down time”, especially in rapidly
deteriorating situations
• Timeliness of data
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Lack of standards
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• Difficult to train effectively
• Minimizes benefits, maximizes risks
• Substantial ‘head down’ time
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What about in 2016?
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• WTIC is becoming more standard
• Price now in $100’s
• Crowd sourced apps nearly free
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How it used to be:
• Weather data from cable/news sources
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Not specialized, prior to departure
• Updates from ATC
• Visual cues of
surroundings
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Strike Finder Nexar
Bendix King
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ASOS [b]
PDA [c]
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Scope of study
• NTSB reports 2003 to 2008
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Very objective, pilots unlikely to speculate
• ASRS reports 2003 to 2013
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Self reported
• Databases kept separate to keep
integrity
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• First study to use accident/incident
reports to see usage over time
• No predetermined fields or standards
for reporting
• Used pilot narratives
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• 1,000s of reports to mine through
• Computers need data points to find
trends
• Large databases provide statistical
significance
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Categories:
Rapid Weather
VFR to IMC
Underqualified
Unprepared
Carb Ice
Fog
Plane Ice
Multiple
Windshear
Mountain Landing
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Recurring themes (and trip type/pilot)
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• Decision Making
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VFR cross-country – experienced pilot
• Convective weather avoidance
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Using weather sources not intended for aviation
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IFR cross-country
VFR local – student pilot
Risk taking
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VFR cross-country – inexperienced pilot
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Recurring themes (continued)
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• Wind Conditions
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VFR cross-country – pilot in new aircraft
• Icing Conditions
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IFR cross-country – unplanned flight into icing conditions
• Turbulence Encounter
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VFR cross-country – clear air turbulence
• Distraction using cockpit technology
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VFR local flight
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Recurring themes (continued)
[e]
[f]
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Identification of common scenarios has
potential to allow:
• Training to target specific pilots
• Training scenarios for certification
levels
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How it can be now:
• Updates from ATC
• Data from real-time weather
technology on board
• Visual cues of surroundings
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How it can be now:
• Updates from ATC
• Data from real-time weather
technology on board
• Visual cues of surroundings
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Consistent results between studies
• Head down scans
• Conditions change quickly
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View in screen different size
• Poor training exacerbates
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2 alarming scenarios
• Lowering of Personal Minimums
• Technology Inappropriate for Use in
Aviation
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[g]
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Under utilized full report
• Reports have more information to be
analyzed
• Different databases/formats
• Common database allows for more
detailed analysis
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Database logical next step
• Excel is proprietary format
• NTSB/ASRS haven’t integrated
weather technology into report
• Allows collaboration
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Raw reports  categorized events 
clean up narratives  update from
original database  import into SQL 
create PHP frontend  allow exportation
of data
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[a]
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Alpha testing
• Partial dataset loaded in
• Combines NTSB/ASRS
• Common query combinations
• Allows advanced searches
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• 5 years of records, about 1,000 reports
• Custom fields
• Shared fields
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Date
Aircraft
Phase of flight
Pilot Experience
Narrative
Location
Lighting
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Weather
Technology Present
Agency
Intersection of all
fields
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Complexity of searches [d]
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• 2004-2006
(2004 OR 2005 OR 2006)
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• Either database
.AND
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• Cessna 172
.AND
(Cessna 172)
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• Everyone but students
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(NOT student)
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• Any WTIC
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• No combined ice/wind
.AND
(NOT none)
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NOT (ice AND wind)
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Next steps
• Load all data (2008-2013)
• Increase security
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SQL injections
• User types and classes
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Correcting classifications
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Next steps (cont.)
• Move to production environment
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2 GHz, 512 MB, 100 kB/s
• Java support
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Visual representation, narrative searching
• Open to other researchers
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Focus on what you need to, not what you have to
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Conclusions
• Onboard weather technology generally
increases safety in GA
• Report available technology
• Improved training
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Only saw
when things
went wrong
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Study found trends leading to incidents
Study unfairly biased toward negative
More work on positive aspects
Self reporting when technology worked
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References
[a] http://www.keithjbrown.co.uk/vworks/php/php_p1.php
[b] http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/lub/office/history/cds_asos.jpg
[c] http://www.swiftmobile.net/Images/phone.jpg
[d] http://uksourcers.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Boolean-Ven.jpg
[e] http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/15-097.jpg
[f] https://i.ytimg.com/vi/bSF9Jvu5xqw/maxresdefault.jpg
[g] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-2911644/Dublin-Airport-diverts14-flights-Belfast-Manchester-Liverpool-warns-incoming-planes-not-land-Storm-Rachellashes-Ireland.html
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