Transcript Public Opinion - Loudoun County Public Schools

Public Opinion
Objectives:
•Examine the term public opinion and determine why it is
so hard to define.
•Describe factors that shape public opinion.
Bell Ringer:
Going beyond the simple explanation of cynicism, speculate
about the reasons for the apathy most Americans feel toward
their government and officials and their low levels of knowledge
about both.
Agenda:
Introduction to Public Opinion
Homework:
None unless have not finished work in class
Public Opinion
Objectives:
•Examine the term public opinion and determine why it is
so hard to define.
•Describe factors that shape public opinion.
Bell Ringer:
Are elections accurate measures of public opinion?
Agenda:
Public Opinion
Homework:
Chapter 8 Section 2 Assessment #1-7
Public Opinion
Objectives:
•Examine the term public opinion and determine why it is
so hard to define.
•Describe factors that shape public opinion.
Bell Ringer:
Political scientist V.O. Key, jr. , once described public opinion as
those expressions that governments “find it prudent to heed.”
Do you agree with Key’s definition? Explain your answer.
Agenda:
Public Opinion
Homework:
Use your review guide to study for Friday’s test
Public Opinion
Objectives:
•Analyze campaign data to understand how favorability and
issue polls are used.
•Examine polling methods to determine which are most
accurate.
Bell Ringer:
Complete the “Polling Pre-assessment” handout
Agenda:
Types of public opinion polls
Uses of public opinion polls
Homework:
Use Review Guide to help you study for test
Public Opinion
Objectives:
•Analyze campaign data to understand how favorability and
issue polls are used.
•Examine polling methods to determine which are most
accurate.
Bell Ringer:
How do politicians and the media use public opinion polls?
What are the implications of these uses?
Agenda:
Public opinion polls
Homework:
Remainder of Ch. 7 Overview Due
Bell Ringer notebooks due 10/29(A) and 10/30 (B)
Unit 2 Test (Ch. 4, 5) November 3 (A) and 4 (B)
What is public opinion?
1. Views individuals hold about government, public
policy, society, and culture.
 Major part of today’s American political
landscape.
2. Reflects how people would like government to
act.
What is public opinion?
3. Since 1789, framers and most public officials have
had no formal or agreed upon way of determining
or responding to public opinion.
4. May be based on:
Facts about problems and solutions
Emotions and crises
Beliefs people adopt through process of
political socialization
What is public opinion?
5. Role of Elites:
Shape mass views by influencing what issues
• capture the public attention and how those issues
• are debated and decided.
 State the norms by which issues should be settled
 Set range of acceptable and unacceptable
6. New class
 Sociologists & political scientists often claim that
• there’s a new class of people who benefit from the
• power, resources, and growth of government.
 Constitute new elite that are wealthy because of
• their connections with government, not business,
as elites previously were.
Characteristics of Public Opinion
Latency: an opinion is held but not expressed
 Saliency: degree to which it is important to a
particular person or group.
1. Social security high saliency with senior
citizens, lower for younger voters.
Characteristics of Public Opinion
 Intensity: how strongly people feel on a certain
issue
1. NRA represents a minority position. However,
intensity of their opposition to gun control is
high.
Many members determine who they’ll
vote for in part due to a candidate’s position on
gun control.
This has made them one of
America’s
most
powerful
lobbying
organizations.
 Stability: How little, or how much, public opinion
changes over time
Political socialization
Process through which a person acquires
knowledge, a set of political attitudes and
orientations, and forms values and opinions about
the political system and other social issues.
Agents of Socialization
U.S. is one of the world’s most diverse countries, this
makes it especially complex.
Public opinion often skewed to a particular point of
view (most in U.S. favor a capitalist economic
system)
Other public opinion can be almost equally divided
between two extreme positions, generally little
middle ground on these issues (Pro-life vs. prochoice)
Family
•
Single most important socializing agent for most
Americans
•
At home, kids learn basic attitudes toward
authority, property, & rules of behavior

Most students see their views as being
independent of their parents. In reality, there is
still more political
agreement between family
generations
How Americans Learn About Politics:
Political Socialization
School and Peers
 Governments use schools in their attempt to
instill a commitment to the basic values of the
system.
• Schools give children formal knowledge they will
need to be good citizens
 Schools are also centers of informal learning
about other groups in society.
Benevolent Leader
Political socialization phenomenon where children
learn that political figures of the U.S. are wellmeaning, honest, and trustworthy early in their
childhood.
1. Children’s stories of George Washington and
Abraham Lincoln
Mass Media

Referred to as “the new parent”
1. T.V. displaces parents as main source of
information as kids get older
2. T.V. most common source of political
information
Mass Media

Selective perception: notion that people
tend to see only what they want to see
 Selective retention: idea that people
remember what they agree with
Social Groups
Political efficacy is the feeling that:

one can understand government and effectively
participate in it
 government will respond to citizens’ demands
 dependent on the factors below
1. more important seems to be education: the
higher the education, the higher the efficacy.
Effects of Diversity
Demographic patterns determined every ten years
when the census is conducted
Religion
 Generally Jews more liberal than Catholics,
who are more liberal than Protestants

Jews and Black Protestants tend to be the
most liberal
 White Protestants tend to be more conservative
(especially in the south)

Many agree with separation of church and state
Ethnicity
 Blacks tend to be more liberal

Asians and Hispanics are a little less liberal

Blacks and Asians are more likely to vote than
whites of their same income level
Cubans tend to be more conservative

Many immigrants arrive from all over the world each
year (government allows 630,000 new legal
immigrants per year)
Ethnicity
• The Immigrant Society
– United States is a nation of immigrants.
– Three waves of immigration:
• Northwestern Europeans (prior to late
19th Century)
• Southern and eastern Europeans (late
19th and early 20th centuries)
• Hispanics and Asians (late 20th
century)
Ethnicity
• The American Melting Pot
– Melting Pot: the mixing of cultures,
ideas, and peoples that has changed the
American nation
– Minority Majority: the emergence of a
non-Caucasian majority
– Political culture is an overall set of
values widely shared within a society.
The American People
Gender

Women favor government programs promoting
equality more than men.

More likely to support government social
welfare programs, less likely to support
increases in military spending
 No set gender generalizations, differences
between men/women typically issue specific.
Age

Younger people typically vote less, not really
involved in/knowledgeable about politics.

Senior citizens population growing tend to be
vocal and lobby for particular issues
1. Social Security System is second only to
national defense as America’s most costly
public policy.
Age
• The Graying of America
– Fastest growing age group is over
65
– Potential drain on Social Security
• Pay as you go system
• In 1942, 42 workers per retiree
• In 2040, 2 workers per retiree
Age
• Political Learning Over a Lifetime
– Aging increases political participation and
strength of party attachment.
Region

Mountain states and Midwest generally more
conservative

Eastern and Western states typically more
liberal

Southerners generally more conservative
(because of civil rights issues)
Region
• The Regional Shift
– Population shift
from east to west
– Reapportionment:
the process of
reallocating seats
in the House of
Representatives
every 10 years on
the basis of the
results of the
census
Education

In general, the higher the level of education
attained, the higher one’s awareness and
understanding of politics and political issues

More education an individual receives, the more
likely that person is to hold liberal political
positions

More education = more likely to vote, more
tolerant of opposing opinions
Income

Divides people on their opinions: higher
income, more likely to value freedom and less
government control

Higher income often more supportive of liberal
goals like racial & sexual equality

Poor white voters LEAST likely to vote in a
typical election
Personal Beliefs

Americans more “me-oriented” than ever
 Agree with things that benefit us, disagree
with those that don’t

When policies don’t affect us personally, hard
for us to form an opinion
Political Knowledge
 Everyone has “opinions” on politics, most
people, however don’t know any “facts”
1. Speaker of the House
2. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court
3. Where other countries are located (Iraq, China,
El Salvador)
Measuring Public Opinion and Political
Information
Cues From Leaders

With lack of knowledge public opinion can be
highly changeable at times
1. Rapid shifts are common when the public
doesn’t have much information or when the
information that they have is bad.
Measuring Public Opinion and Political
Information
Public Opinion Polls
Can be measured in different ways and the accuracy
of the opinion depends on the measurement
Public opinion is measured regularly through elections.
Only measures it indirectly since voters are not always
for, but sometimes against a candidate.
Public Opinion Polls
•4 out of 5 doctors surveyed recommend Product X.
•If the election were held tomorrow, 43% of likely voters
would vote for Roberta Jones.
•85% of all Americans prefer Brand Q over Brand Y.
•66% of parents surveyed think their children watch too
much television.
Where might you here or read a quote like this?
What types of groups would be interested in information like this?
What are some different ways groups could use this information?
How might you be influenced if you read this quote?
Public Opinion Polls
Modern-day polling tends to be moderately accurate
“John Q. Public” thought to be the average man or woman
on the streets. Term used by the media and pollsters
when making blanket statements about the general
opinion in the U.S.
Random/Representative Sample Polls
 Everyone in the target population has an equal
probability of being selected
 Questions used are non-biased & do not give
respondents any clues about what answers poll is
looking for.
Many polls conducted through telephone and
computer surveys
Telephone Polling
Cluster sampling: groups drawn by geographical
divisions (counties, districts)
•Random digit dialing: people over eighteen with
birthdays in a certain month are asked to complete
a questionnaire
Telephone Polling
 Quota sample: less reliable polling method in
which members of a particular group are
interviewed in proportion to the group’s
percentage of the population as a whole.
 More costly than nonrandom polls, but results are
more reliable
 Apply a sampling error (typically about +/- 3
points)
1. Poll results give candidate 45% of vote. Actual
results could be 42 or 48%
Telephone Polling
Quota sample (continued)
 Assuming the U.S. adult population is targeted
group, sample size usually between 1,200 and
1,500 respondents
1. As polling techniques become more advanced,
typical sample sizes decreasing
 Apply a sampling error (typically about +/- 3 points)
1. Poll results give candidate 45% of vote. Actual
results could be 42 or 48%
Nonrandom Polls
Not reliable representations of people’s true
opinions. However:
•Straw polls: unscientific attempts to measure
public opinion. Often used by print and television
news media, internet, even members of Congress.
1. Results not reliable because there is no
guarantee that the group or sample answering
question is representative of whole population.
Nonrandom Polls
Not reliable representations of people’s true
opinions. However:
 Many candidates rely on nonrandom polls quickly
conducted by their party.
 Members of Congress often rely on letters, phone
calls, e-mails to indicate public opinion on some
issues.
1. Only represents views of people motivated
enough to contact legislators.
Nonrandom Polls
Way questions are worded can significantly
influence reflected opinions.
1. “Slanting” questions to get the answers they
want.
Political Polls
Push Polls
 Attempt to lead subject to a specified conclusion
 Some designed to ‘push’ subjects away from
candidates by linking them to negative events or
traits in the question
Political Polls
Tracking Polls
 Continuous surveys that enable candidates and
politicians to chart daily rise and fall in popularity
 Small samples
 Reliability problems but may be a decent
measure
of trends
Political Polls
Exit Polls
 Used by media to find out how people voted &why
 Not random or representative, but if a large enough
proportion of voters is polled, responses can form
basis for some generalizations.

Reliability problems but may be a decent measure
of trends
Use of Polls
 Informing the public
 Informing the candidate
 Informing office-holders
 Making election night predictions
•Some officials closely follow public opinion and use
it in making policy decisions
•Others don’t trust it because it can change quickly
and dramatically
Shortcomings of Polls
In 1936, a Literary Digest poll underestimated
the vote for FDR by 19% because of flawed
polling.
They drew their sample from phone books and
motor vehicle records. During the Great
Depression, people on those lists typically above
the average income level, and therefore not
representative of the public.
Role of Polls
Supporters
 Allows people to express their approval or
disapproval of government
 Tool for democracy by which policymakers can
keep in touch with changing opinions
Shortcomings of Polls
 Sampling error
 Limited respondent options (narrow answer base)
 Lack of information (respondents don’t understand
question)
 Intensity (learn people’s positions, but not how
strong or weak it is)
 Elitism (deliberative polls have been accused of
bias)
Role of Polls
Critics
 Makes politicians more concerned with following than
leading.
 Political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg argues polls weaken
democracy because they let government think that it has
taken public opinion into account when only passive (often
ill-informed) opinions have been counted.
 “Bandwagon effect”: possible tendency of some voters or
convention delegates to support the candidate who is
leading in the polls and seems most likely to win.
Role of Polls
Critics
 Drown out actual issues during elections.
 Pollsters get results they want by altering
wording of the questions.