Transcript You, me and RC28

MEETING OF THE
RESEARCH
COMMITTEE ON
SOCIAL
STRATIFICATION
AND MOBILITY
OF THE
INTERNATIONAL
SOCIOLOGICAL
ASSOCIATION
YOU, ME
AND RC28
WHERE IS
THE NEW
GENERATION OF
RESEARCH ON
SOCIAL
STRATIFICATION
AND MOBILITY?
UNIVERSITY OF
ESSEX
APRIL 13-16, 2011
WOUT ULTEE
RADBOUD
UNIVERSITY
NIJMEGEN
THE NETHERLANDS
WHEN THIS OLDER PERSON MEETS RC28 NEWCOMERS,
THE COMPLIMENT OF NEWCOMERS OFTEN IS THAT ONE
RECEIVES GOOD COMMENTS IN RC28
I HAVE THREE DISAPPOINTMENTS FOR YOU:
1. I AND OTHER OLDER RC28 MEMBERS MAY TELL YOU
THAT YOUR RESEARCH QUESTION IS WRONG: LATER
RC28 GENERATIONS ARGUED THAT EARLIER ONES
POSED ISSUES POORLY
2. THE SHIFT WITHIN RC28 FROM STATUS ATTAINMENT
MODELS TO CLASS ANALYSIS MARKED A NEW
GENERATION, BUT WILL THE ISSUE OF MACRO VERSUS
MICRO CLASSES LEAD TO A NEW GENERATION TOO?
3. HAVE RC28 UNIVERSITY SOCIOLOGISTS BEEN
OVERTAKEN BY THINK TANK ECONOMISTS WHO RAISE
INCOME MOBILITY QUESTIONS?
MY
CRITICAL
LEARNING
PERIOD IN
RC28
SOCIOLOGY
INCLUDED
THE COVER
OF A NOW
DEFUNCT
BRITISH
WEEKLY
THE COVER STEMS FROM RIGHT
BEFORE THE 1980 PUBLICATION OF
GOLDTHORPE, SOCIAL MOBILITY
AND CLASS STRUCTURE IN MODERN
BRITAIN AND OF HALSEY, HEATH &
RIDGE, ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS
THESE STUDIES MARKED A NEW
GENERATION OF RESEARCH IN
SOCIAL MOBILITY
NEW SOCIETY DID NOT NOTE THIS
SHIFT FROM THE GLASS
GENERATION TO THE GOLDTHORPE
GENERATION
AS SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN
AROUND IN RC28 FOR A LONGER TIME
I DISTINGUISH PAPERS ACCORDING TO
GENERATIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME THINGS
HAPPENED IN RC28 THAT MARKED A
BIG BREAK WITH THE PAST
AND THESE MAIN EVENTS MADE
RESEARCH OF THE OLDER
GENERATION NOT ONLY ANTIQUATED,
BUT FIT FOR THE DUSTBIN
THE EASY BUT SOMETIMES MISLEADING WAY
OF RECOGNIZING GENERATIONS IN PAPERS IS
LOOKING AT METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS
THERE ARE A LOT OF METHODS,
AND SOMETIMES A PERVASIVE SHIFT OCCURS
FROM ONE METHOD TO ANOTHER:
FIRST GENERATION
PERCENTAGES
SECOND GENERATION LINEAR REGRESSION
THIRD GENERATION
ODDS RATIO’S
LIPSET 1956
DUNCAN 1967
GOLDTHORPE 1978
FOURTH GENERATION EVENT HISTORY MODELS
BLOSSFELD 1986
FIFTH GENERATION
???
???
FIFTH GENERATION
???
FROM STANDARD LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS
TO MULTI-LEVEL MODELS IS NO BIG THING
FROM LOGLINEAR MODELS
TO MULTI-LEVEL MULTI-NOMINAL LOGISTIC
REGRESSION MODELS IS NO BIG THING
HECKMAN CORRECTION FOR SELECTION BIAS
IS NO BIG THING
IMPUTATION OF MISSING VALUES
NO BIG THING
IS
GENERATIONS ARE NOT
MARKED BY NEW METHODS
THE NEW GENERATION
IMPLIES AND SOMETIMES
ANNOUNCES LOUDLY
THAT RESEARCH QUESTIONS
OF THE OLD GENERATION
POSE THE ISSUE POORLY
THE OLD GENERATION USED
METHODS THAT INCORPORATE
HYPOTHESES THAT ARE
PRECISELY AT ISSUE
LE MONDE IN 2007 SHOWED A RISE IN THE PERCENT
OF DOWNWARDLY MOBILE FRENCH PERSONS
WHY IS DOWNWARD MOBILITY INCREASING?
THIS QUESTION POSES THE ISSUE POORLY
IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PERCENT OF PEOPLE WITH
THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE ORIGIN IS GROWING
EVEN WHEN THE CHANCES OF PERSONS FROM THE
HIGHEST LEVEL TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL RISE,
THE PERCENT DOWNWARD MOBILITY MAY RISE
DUNCAN DROPPED QUESTIONS ABOUT
‘DIFFERENCE SCORES’
THE SECOND GENERATION ASKS AFTER THE
STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ORIGIN
AND DESTINATION
MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT
MOVEMENTS BETWEEN TWO STEPS ON A LADDER
BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF STEPS ON A LADDER
SO THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM
STEP 1 TO STEP 2 DIFFERS FROM THE QUESTION OF
THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3
WHEN COMPUTING LINEAR REGRESSION
COEFFICIENTS, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE ASSOCIATION
BETWEEN ALL ORIGINS AND ALL DESTINATIONS IS
UNIFORM
YET THERE MAY BE HYPOTHESES STATING THAT IT IS
MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2
THAN FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3
THAT IS PART OF THE REASON WHY THE THIRD
GENERATION COMPUTED A SET OF ODDS RATIO’S
MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS
QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS OF PERSONS
BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME
TO AVOID MISGUIDED QUESTIONS, THE
DISTANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS IN
TIME SHOULD BE EQUAL FOR ALL
INVESTIGATED PERSONS
HOWEVER, THE STANDARD RESEARCH DESIGN
OF OLDER GENERATIONS COLLECTS FOR A
RANDOM SAMPLE OF A COUNTRY’S
POPULATION
THEIR CLASS AT AGE 14 AND THEIR CLASS AT
THE TIME OF THE SURVEY
EVERY GENERATION RAISED THE QUESTION OF
WHETHER SOCIAL MOBILITY IS STABLE
THIS QUESTION CANNOT BE ANSWERED BY DATA
FOR THE ORIGIN AT SOME FIXED AGE AND THE
CURRENT JOB OF THE MEMBERS OF ONE SOCIETY
AT ONE POINT IN TIME
HOWEVER, SOME SAID THAT AT AROUND AGE 35,
‘OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY’ SETS IN
IF THIS IS THE CASE, A COMPARISON OF
COHORTS ABOVE 35 DOES THE TRICK
BUT THE MATURITY THESIS BEGS THE QUESTION:
THE AGE OF MATURITY MAY VARY BETWEEN
COHORTS
TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT
INCREASING OR DECREASING MOBILITY
WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY
THE FOURTH GENERATION PROPOSED
THE COLLECTION OF JOB HISTORIES
FOR ALL MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY AT
THE TIME OF THE SURVEY
DATA FOR OCCUPATIONAL TRJECTORIES
ALLOW FOR ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
ABOUT AGE-, COHORT AND PERIOD
EFFECTS
THE FOURTH GENERATION DID NOT ADDRESS
QUESTIONS ABOUT OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS
IT DID NOT CAME AROUND TO THE QUESTION OF
WHETHER CAREERS ARE SELF-REINFORCING:
IF A PERSON HAPPENS TO START OUT AT A
HIGHER JOB AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL WITH
SPECIFIC CREDENTIALS, WILL THAT PERSON DO
BETTER LATER ON JUST BECAUSE OF THIS
HIGHER FIRST JOB?
THAT QUESTION WAS ANSWERED BY THE
ARROW FROM FIRST TO PRESENT JOB IN
DUNCAN’S SECOND-GENERATION PATH MODEL
OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE
LIFE REMAINS MESSY IN RC28
SO, AT RC28 MEETINGS I
LOOK OUT FOR NEWCOMERS
WHO DECLARE THE
QUESTIONS OF OLDER
GENERATIONS WRONG
BUT IN THE COURSE OF TIME
I HAVE HEARD QUITE A FEW
MEMBERS OF OLDER
GENERATIONS SAY THAT
QUESTIONS OF NEWCOMERS
ARE WRONG
FROM THE EXEMPLAR OF
FIRST GENERATION TO THE
EXEMPLAR OF THE THIRD
GENERATION
RC28 RAISED QUESTIONS
ABOUT MEN ONLY
ARE THESE GAPS BEING
FILLED BY QUESTIONS ABOUT
WOMEN?
DO THESE QUESTIONS
ELIMINATE THE ERRORS OF
OLDER GENERATIONS?
THE ISSUE OF WOMEN’S
ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY
IF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF
STEPS A MAN ROSE ARE MISGUIDED,
QUESTIONS ABOUT WIFE’S INCOME AS A
PERCENT OF HUSBAND’S INCOME ARE
MISGUIDED TOO
THE 50-50 COUPLES ARE A MIXED BAG,
DEPENDING UPON THE AVERAGE INCOME
OF THE COUPLE
IT IS WISE TO RAISE A STRING OF FOUR QUESTIONS
DO NOT JUMP ON THE TRAIN OF THE DEPENDENCY:
1. IS THE (HOURLY) INCOME OF A WIFE HIGHER, IF
HER HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER (HOURLY) INCOME?
2. DOES A WIFE’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON
HET OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE
EDUCATION OF HER HUSBAND?
3. DOES A HUSBAND’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND
UPON HIS OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE
EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE?
4. IS THERE STILL A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION
BETWEEN WIFE’S AND HUSBAND’S INCOME AFTER
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY
AND PARTNER EFFECTS?
THE ISSUE OF THE
HOUSEHOLD DIVISION OF LABOUR
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIME WOMEN SPEND ON
HOUSEHOLD CHORES RELATIVE TO THE TIME THEIR
HUSBAND DOES SO
ARE MISGUIDED
THERE IS A 50-50 DIVISION OF LABOUR IF BOTH PARTNERS
ARE SLUTTISH AND IF THEY HAVE A POLUTION PHOBIA
THE PROPER SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS:
1. ARE THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES
POSITIVELY RELATED?
2. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES OWN CLASS EXPLAIN THE
HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND OF WIVES?
3. DOES THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
HUSBANDS AND WIVES PERSIST AFTER TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT CLASS HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS?
WHEN ESTIMATING MODELS ALSO STUDY INTERCEPTS!
THE FIRST GENERATION DID NOT SUCCEED IN APPLYING ITS
OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCALES WHEN ANSWERING
MOBILITY QUESTIONS
THE SECOND GENERATION DID SUCCEED IN THIS, LEADING
TO STATUS ATTAINMENT RESEARCH
THE THIRD GENERATION OBJECTED AGAINST PRESTIGE
GRADIENTS, SINCE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WOULD CONSIST
OF A LIMITED NUMBER OD DISCRETE CLASSES
HOWEVER, UNLIKE MARXISANT SOCIOLOGY, THE THIRD
GENERATION DID NOT ASSERT THAT THE MIDDLE CLASSES
WERE DISAPPEARING, NOR THAT THE RELATIVE SIZE OF THE
HIGHEST CLASSES WAS GETTING SMALLER
THE CLASS SCHEMA DOMINANT AT PRESENT IN THE
EUROPEAN WING OF RC28
CONSISTS OF TEN CLASSES
BUT THESE CLASSES RIGHT NOW ARE BEING DISQUALIFIED
AS MACRO-CLASSES AND THE SCHEMA IS BEING
CHALLENGED BY THE IDEA OF MICRO-CLASSES
THIS LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO A STATUS GRADIENT
RIGHT NOW I AM INTERESTED IN RATHER
DIFFERENT QUESTIONS AND SQUARE TABLES
I TRY TO MAKE A SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS
THAT DRILLS DEEPER AND DEEPER
A MORE AND MORE SPECIFIC SEQUENCE OF
QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN:
1. IS THE PERCENT OF EMPLOYED WOMEN
APPROACHING THAT OF EMPLOYED MEN?
2. ARE WOMEN WITH A JOB UNDERREPRESENTED AMONG THE HIGHEST CLASSES
AND THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST
PRESTIGE (EVEN AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THEIR EDUCATION AND LABOUR FORCE
EXPERIENCE)?
3. ARE HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN UNDERREPRESENTED AMONG THE SUPERVISORS?
AFTER EACH MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTIVE QUESTION,
RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS RAISED EXPLANATORY QUESTIONS
THE ANSWERS ALMOST ALWAYS AMOUNT TO
HYPOTHESES ABOUT DISCRIMINATION
- DISCRIMINATION BY MEN
IF MEN ARE DISCRIMINATING AGAINST WOMEN, THIS
SHOULD SHOW UP IN SITUATIONS WHERE MEN AND
WOMEN DEAL WITH EACH OTHER
SO MY DEEPER QUESTIONS ARE:
4. IF HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN ARE SUPERVISING, TO
WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUPERVISING WOMEN RATHER
THEN MEN?
EVEN MORE TO THE POINT:
5. HOW MANY MEN HAVE A WOMAN AS A SUPERVISOR?
THE NETHERLANDS IN 2009
GENDER OF SUPERVISOR
GENDER OF
MALE
FEMALE
MALE
88 %
12 %
FEMALE
56 %
44 %
EMPLOYED
PERSON
THE ODDS RATIO FOR THIS TABLE:
5.8
THE HIGHER CLASSES OF THE IN RC 28 DOMINANT CLASS
SCHEMA ARE CONTAINING AN EVER HIGHER PERCENT OF
A COUNTRY’S LABOUR FORCE
FOR SEVERAL COUNTRIES NOW RC28 MEMBERS
ESTABLISHED A TREND TOWARDS MORE RELATIVE
INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY
FOR MOST COUNTRIES IN THE PAST DECADES THE GINI
FOR INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN RISING
(HOW) CAN THESE FINDINGS BE SQUARED?
DOES THIS JUXTAPOSITION INDICATE THAT RC28 SHOULD
MOVE BEYOND THE PRESENT CLASS SCHEMA?
RATHER THAN STATUS ATTAINMENT AND MACRO OR
MICRO CLASS MOBILITY,
SHOULD RC28 STUDY INCOME MOBILITY?
THE TRENDS IN RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL
CLASS MOBILITY ESTABLISHED BY RC28
SOCIOLOGISTS
REFER TO THE PERIOD AFTER WORLD WAR 2
AND SOMETIMES TO THE FULL 20TH CENTURY
DEPENDING UPON THE COUNTRY, THE RISE OF
THE GINI PERTAINS TO THE LAST THREE OR
FOUR THREE DECADES
AND WHEREAS MOBILITY PERTAINS TO
PERSONS TAKEN ON THEIR OWN
GINI’S PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS WITHIN
HOUSEHOLDS
TO WHAT EXTENT DID THE GINI SINCE 1975
RISE BECAUSE OF
1. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MACRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?
2. A STRONGER EFFECT OF LEVEL OF EDUCATION ON
EARNINGS?
3. MORE ONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS AND MORE LONE
MOTHERS?
4. LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS?
5. MORE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY?
6. A STRONGER RISE IN EMPLOYMENT FOR HIGHLY AS
COMPARED WITH LOWELY EDUCATED WIVES?
7. A STRONGER EFFECT OF FIELD OF EDUCATION ON
EARNINGS?
8. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MICRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?
ECONOMISTS STUDIED INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME
MOBILITY FOR THE UNITED STATES IN THE 1980s
THEY FOUND CORRELATIONS BELOW 0.2
THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE CORRELATION OF 0.4 FOUND
BY SOCIOLOGISTS BETWEEN THE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS
OF FATHERS AND SONS
ECONOMISTS REVIEWING DUNCAN’S WORK, POINTED OUT
THAT OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE MIGHT MEASURE THE
LIFE-TIME EARNINGS OF A JOB (PERMANENT INCOME)
WHEN IN THE 1990s THE CORRELATION WAS NOT
COMPUTED FOR THE LOGS OF YEARLY EARNINGS,
BUT FOR THREE-YEAR AVERAGES,
THE CORRELATION ROSE TO THE LEVEL OF THE FINDINGS
OF SOCIOLOGISTS
SOLON, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 1992
THE QUESTION OF WHETHER
INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS
MOBILITY DIFFERS FROM COUNTRY TO
COUNTRY
WAS FEATURED IN 2007 IN AN OECD
REPORT
BY D’ADDIO
INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF
DISADVANTAGE
THAT REPORT REFERRED TO A THEN
UNPUBLISHED PAPER BY JÄNTTI ET AL
THE PRIME FINDING WAS THE FOLLOWING TABLE
SHOWING THAT IF THE GINI INDICATES MORE
INEQUALITY, EARNINGS MOBILITY IS LOWER
DO YOU SPOT YOUR ‘OWN’ COUNTRY?
UPON SEEING THESE FIGURES,
I STARTED HUNTING FOR DUTCH FIGURES
STATISTICS NETHERLANDS WAS NOT FORTHCOMING
A TABLE PUBLISHED BY STATISTICS NETHERLANDS IN 2000,
AND MADE BY THE ECONOMIST CÖRVERS
IT CROSS-CLASSIFIES THE EARNINGS QUINTILES OF FATHERS
IN 1981 AND THOSE OF THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998
THIS TABLE HAS AN R OF 0.24
IF A FATHER’S EARNINGS ARE ONE PERCENT HIGHER, THE
EARNINGS OF HIS CHILD ARE 0,21 PERCENT HIGHER
I CANNOT FIGURE OUT TO WHAT EXTENT THESE FIGURES
ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES
THE FIGURES REFER TO 797 FATHER-CHILD COUPLES,
STARTING OUT WITH A MUCH LARGER SAMPLE
I981 FATHERS HAD TO BE YOUNGER THAN 55 YEARS,
THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998 HAD TO BE AT LEAST 35 YEARS
THE OECD REGARDED AS SURPRISING
THE FINDING THAT A LOT OF INCOME INEQUALITY
DOES NOT GO TOGETHER WITH A LOT OF
INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY
IS THERE A SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESIS
PROPOSED BY A RC28 SOCIOLOGIST
FROM WHICH IT MAY DERIVED THAT IF INCOME
INEQUALITY IS HIGHER,
INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY IS
HIGHER TOO?
THE RC28 MACRO HYPOTHESES POSTULATE
EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY AND IDEOLOGY ON
ANY FORM OF SOCIETAL INEQUALITY AND
CLOSURE
AVERAGING EARNINGS OVER THREE
YEARS DOES AWAY WITH EFFECTS OF THE
BUSINESS CYCLE IN A COUNTRY
THE EXPLANATION OF RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS
FOR INTERGENERATION TRANSMISSION IS
THAT A PERSON’S EDUCATION IS CRUCIAL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPENDENCE
OF EDUCATION UPON BACKGROUND IN A
COUNTRY BEING INFLUENCED BY A
COUNTRY’S POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
THE EDUCATION OF PERSONS DEPENDS
UPON THE CLASS AND EDUCATION OF
THEIR PARENTS WHILE THESE PERSONS
WERE YOUNG
DO ECONOMISTS GO AFTER THE INCOME
OF PARENTS WHEN A CHILD WAS STILL
YOUNG?
THE COVER FROM A BRITISH NEWSPAPER DATED
JANUARY 22ND 2011
IT DEPICTS INCOME INEQUALITY AND SUGGESTS
THAT IF INEQUALITY IS HIGHER,
MOBILITY IS MORE DIFFICULT
THE COVER IS FROM THE ECONOMIST
IF ONE BELONGS TO THE LOWER
QUINTILES, ONE’S LADDER IS NOT LONG
ENOUGH
AND PERHAPS THE PERSON STANDING
ON TOP WILL KICK YOU DOWN
THE QUESTION OF INCOME MOBILITY IS
WORTHY OF RC28 ATTENTION
BUT NOT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT MORE
INEQUALITY MAKES FOR MORE MOBILITY
INEQUALITY MAY MOTIVATE, BUT IS A
BARRIER
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