Transcript The Decline of Quantitative History

The Decline of Quantitative History
• American
Historical
Review
Statistical
tables
and
graphs
perper
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articles:
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tables
and
graphs
100
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articles:
• Comparative Studies in Society and History
five top-cited
history
journals,
Five leading
history
journals, 1945-2009
1945-2008
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• Journal of American History
• Journal of Modern History
• Past & Present
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“By the 1980s, the historian
will be a programmer or he
will be nothing.”
--Le Roy Ladurie, 1968
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“Narrative,
with its hidden
assumptions, buried causal
structures, and lack of
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falsifiability is too obviously
an inferior good to run
QUASSH
out of the
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marketplace.”
--Morgan Kousser, 1984
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Why did the enterprise collapse so
completely and dramatically?
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Five leading
history
journals, 1945-2009
1945-2008
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1976: Ruggles
chooses grad school
in history
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five top-cited
history
journals,
Five leading
history
journals, 1945-2009
1945-2008
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1979: Lawrence Stone,
“Revival of Narrative”
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history
journals,
Five leading
history
journals, 1945-2009
1945-2008
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1979: Lawrence Stone,
“Revival of Narrative”
1979: Tony Judt, “Clown in
Regal Purple”
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Tony Judt, “A Clown in Regal Purple”
History Workshop Journal 7(1979), 66-94
“. . .social history is suffering a severe case of
pollution. The subject has become a gathering place
for the unscholarly, for historians bereft of ideas and
subtlety . . . Complete epistemological bankruptcy . .
. ludicrous . . . fundamentally unscholarly . . .
mediocrity . . twaddle . . . stupid, or historically
illiterate . . . shoddy work . . . the slow strangulation
of social history”
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tables and graphs per 1000 pages of articles:
Statistical tables and graphs per 100 pages of articles:
five top-cited
history
journals,
Five leading
history
journals, 1945-2009
1945-2008
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Bridenbaugh
delivers “Bitch
Goddess” address
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The shrine of the Bitch-goddess
Carl Bridenbaugh's 1962 presidential address
to the American Historical Association:
“The finest historians will not succumb to the
dehumanizing methods of social sciences . . .
Nor will the historian worship at the shrine of that Bitchgoddess, QUANTIFICATION. History offers radically
different values and methods. It concerns itself with the
‘mutable, rank-scented many,’ but it fails if it does not
show them as individuals . . .”
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tables and graphs per 1000 pages of articles:
Statistical tables and graphs per 100 pages of articles:
five top-cited
history
journals,
Five leading
history
journals, 1945-2009
1945-2008
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T/C Backlash
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T/C
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PSHP
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How do trends in in social science history compare
across top journals of History, Economics,
Sociology, and Demography?
P e rc e n t o f a rtic le s m e n tio n in g "T a b le 1 ":
F o u rte e n H is to ry J o u rn a ls
20
15
10
5
0
1 9 6 0 -6 4 1 9 6 5 -6 9 1 9 7 0 -7 4 1 9 7 5 -7 9 1 9 8 0 -8 4 1 9 8 5 -8 9 1 9 9 0 -9 4 1 9 9 5 -9 9
2000
P e rc e n t o f a rtic le s m e n tio n in g "m u ltip le re g re s s io n " o r "c o e ffic ie n t":
F o u rte e n H is to ry J o u rn a ls
2 .5
2 .0
1 .5
1 .0
0 .5
0 .0
1 9 6 0 -6 4 1 9 6 5 -6 9 1 9 7 0 -7 4 1 9 7 5 -7 9 1 9 8 0 -8 4 1 9 8 5 -8 9 1 9 9 0 -9 4 1 9 9 5 -9 9
2000
P e rc e n t o f a rtic le s m e n tio n in g "n in e te e n th c e n tu ry":
E c o n o m ic s jo u rn a ls (A E R , Q J E , J P E )
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 9 6 0 -6 4
1 9 6 5 -6 9
1 9 7 0 -7 4
1 9 7 5 -7 9
1 9 8 0 -8 4
1 9 8 5 -8 9
1 9 9 0 -9 4
1 9 9 5 -9 9
2000
P e rc e n t o f a rtic le s m e n tio n in g "c lio m e tric s ":
E c o n o m ic s jo u rn a ls (A E R , Q J E , J P E )
1 .2
1 .0
Fogel wins Nobel (1993)
0 .8
0 .6
T/C
0 .4
0 .2
0 .0
1 9 6 0 -6 4 1 9 6 5 -6 9 1 9 7 0 -7 4 1 9 7 5 -7 9 1 9 8 0 -8 4 1 9 8 5 -8 9 1 9 9 0 -9 4 1 9 9 5 -9 9
2000
P e rc e n t o f a rtic le s m e n tio n in g "n in e te e n th c e n tu ry":
P o p u la tio n jo u rn a ls (D e m o g ra p h y, P S , P D R )
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25
20
15
10
5
0
1 9 6 5 -6 9
1 9 7 0 -7 4
1 9 7 5 -7 9
1 9 8 0 -8 4
1 9 8 5 -8 9
1 9 9 0 -9 4
1 9 9 5 -9 9
2000
P e rc e n t o f a rtic le s m e n tio n in g "n in e te e n th c e n tu ry":
S o c io lo g y jo u rn a ls (A S R , A J S , S o c ia l F o rc e s )
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 9 6 0 -6 4 1 9 6 5 -6 9 1 9 7 0 -7 4 1 9 7 5 -7 9 1 9 8 0 -8 4 1 9 8 5 -8 9 1 9 9 0 -9 4 1 9 9 5 -9 9
2000
Conclusion: we are in a golden age of
quantitative social science history.
(just not among historians)
Future prospects
• An unprecedented quantity of large-scale historical
data collection projects are underway or will soon be
launched in many countries
• We have seen that data availability stimulates
research, so the boom should continue or accelerate
in the next couple of decades
• There is no sign, however, of any revival of
quantification among historians
Why do we care?
As long as research is thriving, why should we care if
it is concentrated among economists and
demographers?
Because:
– Historians have a lot to offer QUASSH
– QUASSH has a lot to offer the field of history
History has assets to offer QUASSH (1)
• Historians have a strong archival tradition, so gathering,
disseminating, and preserving information is highly
valued (e.g., unlike economics)
• Historians who are immersed in the literature and
archives of a particular period may be able to interpret
data better than social scientists who often have little
background in the period they are studying
• The low prestige of data collection in economics means
that they do not always do it carefully (there are
exceptions, of course—some of my best friends . . .)
• Historians are best-qualified custodians and developers
of historical data
History has assets to offer QUASSH (2)
• Historians are less likely than other social scientists
to assume that people’s goals and values were the
same then as they are now
• Many economists and sociologists focus on
assessing how changing circumstances have led to
changing behavior
• Historians are more likely to regard changes in
people’s goals and values as an appropriate object of
study
QUASSH has a lot to offer history (1)
• Historians have a vital interest in the production of
the highest quality historical statistics
• Even when they don’t admit it, virtually all historians
implicitly or explicitly rely on quantitative estimates—
including cultural, political, diplomatic, and labor
historians
• We shouldn’t abandon our influence over this critical
part of historical investigation
• If we abandon the field, we lose control
QUASSH has a lot to offer history (2)
QUASSH is virtually the only historical specialization
in which it is possible to raise very large sums of
research money. I see no reason that we should
entirely cede this asset to economists and
sociologists.