Transcript Transmission Planning in a Modern Market Environment

Siemens Power Technologies International
Transmission Planning in a
Modern Market Environment
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
usa.siemens.com/smartgrid
Objectives of Talk
• Discuss electric power transmission reliability issues, assessment methods and
tools
• Present opportunities for applying probabilistic techniques
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 2
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Characteristics of Today’s
Transmission System Analysis
Reliable on a system-basis
• May vary by location
• Prevalence of remedial measures
Designed to survive severe, probable events
• Deterministic criteria, typically
• Without explicitly predicting likelihood of occurrence
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 3
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Reliability Assessment Approaches
Contingency enumeration
• Limit scenarios and contingencies
Monte Carlo simulation
• Use random sampling
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 4
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Reliability Criteria
Based on previous history of failure phenomena
Mainly deterministic, but reflect relative likelihood of component failures
Defined in terms of:
• Scenarios
• Analyses
• Acceptable/unacceptable conditions
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 5
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Deterministic vs. Probabilistic
Deterministic
• Tests system performance under different conditions (N, N-1, N-2, etc.)
• Determines contingency outcome
• Makes “Pass/Fail” decision
Probabilistic
• Reflects risk of equipment failures
• Multiple component failures may have more severe consequences, but are less
likely to occur (have lower probabilities)
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 6
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Equipment Outage Statistics
• Probabilistic calculations require input of equipment outage statistics
• Data from historical records of equipment failures
• Grouped by equipment type, voltage level, rating
Temporary & Permanent Outages
Transient
Outages
Line Related
Terminal Related
kV
F (/mi-yr)
F (/mi-yr)
R (hours)
F (/yr)
R (hours)
230
0.010
0.010
7
0.100
10
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 7
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Probabilistic Indices
System problem (performance criteria violation) indices
• Frequency
• Average duration
• Probability
FREQ. DURATION
<-FAILURE CRITERIA
--> (OC/Y) (HOURS)
'AREAS125
' BUSES WITH VOLTAGE LESS THAN 0.950 (PU) 8.7886
9.6
OVERLOAD (%)
11.7514
14.2
LOSS OF LOAD (MW)
2.0209
6.6
VOLTAGE COLLAPSE
0.0355
5.3
SUBSYSTEM "RTS" TOTAL
13.6962
13.2
<--B U S E S W I T H-->
<-LOAD CURTAILMENTS(MW)->
SUBSYSTEM RTS
104 MARYLOAD
138.00
105 ANNELOAD
138.00
106 REACTOR
138.00
107 MIDOIL
138.00
108 ERIKLOAD
138.00
214 CONDENS
230.00
LOAD
(MW)
3563.0
92.5
88.8
170.0
156.3
213.8
242.5
FREQ. DURATION
(OC/Y) (HOUR)
4.1792
16.19
0.0143
3.55
0.0083
3.57
0.0129
3.56
1.9601
6.68
0.0289
3.54
0.0255
5.91
PROB.
0.0077
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0015
0.0000
0.0000
PROB.
0.0096
0.0191
0.0015
0.0000
0.0206
IMPACT NO. OF WORST. WORST CONT.
CONT. VIOL.
0.001
138
0.406 4_3
0.005
271 202.144 1_9
0.242
41 370.100 12_2
5
302
I. P.
E.U.E. B.I.P. B.E.U. NO. OF WORST CONT.
(MW/OC) (MWH/Y)
CONT.
32.36 1825.89 0.0380 0.5125
21
1.33
4.69 0.0143 0.0507
1 13_1
0.73
2.63 0.0083 0.0297
1 10_1
2.19
7.78 0.0129 0.0458
1 5_1
306.34 2045.90 1.9601 13.0896
36 ISLAND 1
6.18
21.81 0.0289 0.1020
1 12_2
6.18
36.46 0.0255 0.1504
2 2_2
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 8
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Loss of Load Indices
Energy not served (MWHr/yr)
Bulk power interruption index (1/yr)
Bulk power energy curtailment index (Hr/yr)
Customer indices: SAIDI & SAIFI
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 9
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Unserved Energy
Varies with load and dispatch
Studying only peak load may overestimate unreliability
Model a series of load/dispatch conditions
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.4
Load
0.2
Served
0.0
0
Per unit load
Per Unit Load
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
2000
4000
6000
Hours
8000
0
2000
4000 6000
Hours
8000
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 10
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Value-Based Reliability
Cost of unreliability
Cost of reinforcements/must-run contracts
Cost
Interruption Cost ($/kW)
Value-based pricing
Total Cost
Customer
Impact
Reinforcements
Interruption Duration (Hours)
System Reliability
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 11
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Deterministic vs. Probabilistic
Example
Deterministic
Line is overloaded during
the outage of a parallel
circuit
Probabilistic
Line is overloaded once a
year with an average
duration of 5 hours
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 12
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
System vs. Customer Focus
Example
System Perspective
Line is overloaded by 20%
during a circuit outage
Customer Perspective
200 MW of load is
interrupted during a circuit
outage
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 13
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Generation vs. Transmission
Example
Scenario B
Scenario A
Urban
Area
In-City
Generators
Urban
Area
Add Tie
Lines
Retirement of in-city generation, increased dependence on imports
Random outage behaviors of generators and transmission components are
different
Need to consider probabilistic aspect
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 14
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Comparing Options
Example
New generation
Equipment upgrades
Transmission additions
Maintenance changes
Pricing change
4000
Do nothing
Add Generator
Add Line
Improve Grounding
Repower Gen
Add Capacitor
Live Line Maint
Interruptible Load
0
4750
2930
98
52
490
440
87
3356
215
52
3160
2346
365
3327
2553
Cost of
Unreliability
Investment Unreliability
3000
2000
1000
0
0
2000
4000
6000
Cost of Investment
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 15
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Maximizing Transfer Capability
Example
Transfer limits typically computed according to deterministic basis (N-1)
Cumulative frequency
per year
Adopt probability approach to compare risk and reward
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
300
400
500
Transfer Limit
600
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 16
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Transmission Line Ratings
Example
Ratings tend to be static
Often based on worst case assumptions
Solution: develop probabilistic function
100
90
Monitored
ratings
80
% of time
70
60
50 Static rating
40
30
20
10
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Line Rating (amps)
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 17
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Roles of Reliability
Location-specific indicators
• Parts of power system that are susceptible to failures
Risk-based assessment
• Vulnerability to system failures
Customer focused measures
• Service quality and reliability
Reliability as a product
• Pricing accordingly to level of reliability
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 18
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International
Thank you for your attention!
Bob Zeles
Principal Consultant
Siemens Industry, Inc.
Siemens Power Technologies International
7810 Shaffer Parkway
Suite 100
Littleton, CO 80127
Phone: +1 (303) 568-7133
Mobile: +1 (303) 803-4930
E-mail:
[email protected]
Restricted © Siemens Industry, Inc. 2015 All rights reserved.
Page 19
IEEE PES GM 2015
Siemens Power Technologies International