Transcript TOC Overview

The TOC Centre of Australia
Resource Optimisation Using Critical
Chain Buffer Management in the Multi
Project Environment
Presented by: David V Hodes
Tel:
02 9293 2844
Mobile: 0409 789 034
Fax:
02 9315 5891
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.tocca.com.au
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The TOC Centre of Australia
Product Suite
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Critical Chain Projects
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Some Critical Chain Results
• The first time out, we took 26 days out of a 71-day
hypermarket re-fit, a 37% increase in capacity
Matador Refrigeration
• The industry standard to get the plant up and running to
90% capacity is about 46 months. The plant was recently
completed and is up to 90% production in 13 months
Harris Semiconductor
• We succeeded in dropping our average turnaround time
per aircraft visit from three months to two weeks…
Israel Aircraft Industries
• We originally scheduled to take 13 months to deliver –
and the team did it in six months
Honeywell DAS
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The Idea Factory
The Idea
The Project
Operations
The Market
The reward
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The Cash Flow Of An Idea
On time
Monopoly
advantage
$
Cost
reduction
Freed
resources
Early
Late
Extra cost
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The next
new idea
Market
leader
pricing
advantage
Market
follower
pricing
Time disadvantage
Trapped
resources
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When Ideas Become Projects
•
•
•
•
They are late
They are over budget
They frequently change in scope
Standish Group (www.standishgroup.com )
• 30% of projects canceled before finished
• 75% of completed projects are late
• Average cost overruns are 189%
• Average time overruns are 222%
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What About The Measures?
• “Show me how you measure me, and I’ll show you
how I perform. Measure me in an illogical way, and
don’t be surprised if I behave illogically”
Dr Eli Goldratt
• Is the goal task conformance or project
performance?
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Global Versus Local Optima
• What we want to do is:
•
•
•
•
Finish projects on time
Finish projects on budget
Finish projects on scope
Shorten project lead
times
• Finish more projects
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• What we do is:
• Manage to finish tasks
on time
• Measure resources on
utilisation
• Micromanage task flow
• Detailed risk analyses
• Detailed specifications
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Uncertainty Is At The Heart Of
The Problem
• Vendor performance is unreliable
• Required tasks are not fully known
• Time to complete any given task varies
• Delivery of needed tools, equipment, and
material is uncertain
• Resource availability cannot be guaranteed
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The Issue of Duration Risk
10% probability
50% probability
95% probability
BC is not necessarily 2xAB
Task Duration
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How Risk Relates To How We
Are Measured
When we put safety into each task…
• Projects seem to be longer than necessary
• Parkinson’s Law: work expands to fill the time available
• Tasks seldom finish early
• “Student syndrome” prevails: 2/3 of work done in last 1/3
of time
Activity
Task start
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Task end
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The Effect Of Multi-tasking
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Unlevelled Schedule
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Load to Capacity of C
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Critical Chain
The definition of the Critical Chain is the
longest set of dependent steps, taking task
precedence and resource contention into
account.
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Identify Critical Chain
Load levelled (finite capacity)
Critical Chain identified
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Managing The Critical Chain
Shrink the times to 50% probability of
completion – aggregate protection in the
feeding and project buffers
Σ = Buffer
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Types Of Buffers
Project buffer:
• Placed before the customer, to protect our
commitment to the customer (the external
constraint)
Feeding buffer:
• Placed at each point where non-critical tasks
join the critical chain, to protect against
precedence conflicts on non-critical tasks
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CC, Fb and Pb
Project buffer task 13
Feeding buffers tasks 3 and 8
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Critical Ratio
• Critical Ratio =
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work to completion
time to completion
(work+buffer)
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Scenario 1
Status date represented by red line (8am Sunday 4th November)
Purple bars represent projected start and finish times
Project buffer (Pb) penetrated
Feeding buffer (Fb) task 8 penetrated
Resource buffer (Rb) tasks 5 and10 scheduled against expected start
Task 4 most critical to work on, as a delay here causes immediate Pb penetration
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But How Do We Manage The
Complex, Multi-Project Environment?
•Analyse
•Resource
•Decide
The pacing
resource
Individual Critical
Chain Projects
Project Pipeline
Project Portfolio
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Portfolio
Selection
Buffer management
policies
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The Classic Multi-Project
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Classic Multi-Project Statistics
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TOC: Critical Chain,
Drum and Buffer Management
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TOC Statistics
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Test Results
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So What’s the Choice?
• You manage the constraint…
•Or the constraint manages you
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