Transcript Chapter 3-Planning Process

3-PLANNING PROCESS
3.1 Integrated project planning
3-2The work breakdown structure
3-3 Network Logic (CPM)
3.4 Estimating fundamentals :Time, cost and budget
3.5 Scheduling : Gantt chart and PERT
3-6 OUTPUTS
Summary key points
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
1
3.1 Integrated project planning
Module Overview
•
•
•
•
Planning Process : why plan?
Project plan : what inside?
Integrated project planning model
Managing the change to the plan
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
2
The Planning Process
Parker’s Proverb
Planning is like insurance. It’s
too expensive until you need
it, and then it’s too late.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
3
Why plan?
Why would you not plan?
As much or as little as you need to demonstrate
to stakeholders that you have thought of
everything, and have a plan to get there.
.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
4
Why plan?
Why would you not plan?
The better we plan, the better we can execute on time
and within budget to meet customer expectations and
organizational objectives.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
5
Why plan?
To manage Project we need constructing a model
The model can be simple or complex
The Triple constraint ( time, cost, performance) is a
simple three element model of a project system
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
6
What is in a project plan?
Your plan may include:
• Introduction
–
–
–
–
Overview,
Deliverables,
Constraints,
Definitions
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
7
What is in a project plan?
Your plan may include:
• Management structure
–
–
–
–
Project reporting,
Communication Plan,
Risk Management,
Change management
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
8
What is in a project plan?
Your plan may include:
• Planning
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Activity schedule
Resource identification,
Resource allocation
Project Charter,
Quality Assurance Plan,
Test and/or Training plans,
ImplementationPrepared
Plan.by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
9
Building a Foundation for Success
• If the problem is poorly defined — limit
scope and work to defining it!
• If the solution is not clear — limit scope
and work to analyzing options and
recommending one!
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
10
PLANNING PROCESS
In the early phases: this is preparing the Project
Management Plan and defining exactly what will happen.
In later phases : it is ensuring that the earlier planning is
still valid, and incorporating any changes in resources or
contingencies arising.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
11
Planning Process
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
12
Planning Process
Activities in this group are:
Develop
Plan
Project
management Scope Planning
Scope definition
Create
Work
Structure
Activity Definition
Activity Sequencing
Activity Resource Estimating
Activity Duration Estimating
Schedule Development
Cost Estimating
Cost Budgeting
Quality Planning
Human Resource Planning
Communications Planning
Risk Management Planning
Risk Identification
Qualitative Risk Analysis
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Risk Response Planning
Plan Purchases and Acquisitions
Plan Contracting
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
Breakdown
13
Project Planning
 The project planning process consists of the
following. This a basic description of the
steps:
1.Setting the project start date
2. Setting the project completion date
3. Selecting the project methodology or project life
cycle to be used
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
14
Project Planning
4.Determining the scope of the project in terms of
the phases of the selected project methodology
or project life cycle
5.Identifying any predetermined interim milestone
or other critical dates which must be met.
6.Listing tasks, by project phase, in the order in
which they might be accomplished.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
15
Project Planning
7. Estimating the personnel necessary to
accomplish each task
8. Determining skill level necessary to
perform each task
10. Determining task dependencies
- Which tasks can be done in parallel
- Which tasks require the completion of
other tasks before they can start
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
16
Planning Is Done Phase by Phase
Concept
Phase
Start
Scope
Work
End
Problem
Project
Plan
Design
Phase
Start
Concept
Documents
End
Const.
Phase
Start
Design
Documents
Updated
Project
Plan
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
17
Integrated Project planning
•Integration is a process of synthesizing different concepts
into a unified Whole
•Project management is primarily an interactive activity:
 Most product failure is at the interface of subsystems
The biggest complaint of people in projects is poor
communications
 Senior managers expect PM taking a strategic and holistic
perspective on the project
•We adopt the model published by the Project Management
Institute
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
18
Integrated Project planning
PMI model
PROCUREMENT
Risk
COMMUN
I-CATION
SCOPE
TIME
Project
Planning
HUMAN
RESOURCE
S
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
COST
QUALITY
The team performs integration with respect to the other
19
3-2 Work Breakdown Structure
Module Overview
•
•
•
•
•
Definition
The elements of a WBS
WBS structure
6 steps to develop a WBS
Tips and tricks
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
20
Work Breakdown Structure
Abram’s Advice
When eating an elephant,
take one bite at a time.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
21
Work Break Down structure
WBS
A definition
• Awork breakdown structure(WBS) is a hierarchic
decomposition or breakdown of a project or major
activity into successive levels, in which each level
is a finer breakdown of the preceding one.
• The WBS may be drawn in a diagrammatic form
(if automated tools are available) or in a chart
resembling an outline.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
22
Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
• A structured definition of all the work of
a project:
– The things we have to do.
– The documents we have to produce.
– Any other tangible items we have to
create.
• The WBS includes both management
work and technical work.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
23
Thesaurus (3)
• Deliverables may also be called:
– Sub-deliverables
– Outputs
– Work packages


Cost accounts
Significant
accomplishments
• Activities may also be called:
– Tasks
– Work packages
• Collectively, they are called work-items.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
24
Using the WBS
• Activities will be used as inputs to:
– Effort and cost estimating
– Sequencing and scheduling
• Deliverables may be used as:
– Scheduling milestones
– Progress measurement check points
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
25
WBS Organized by
Key Component
My New House
Project
Management
…
Residential
Structure
…
Swimming
Pool
…
…
Foundation
Framing
…
Prepared by Pr …
Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
Finish Work
…
26
WBS Organized
by Phase
New Product
Project
Management
…
Start-up
Meeting
…
Requirements
Document
Interview Notes
…
User
Acceptance
…
…
Prepared by Pr …
Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
Report
…
27
WBS For project phases
The first WBS level for the life cycle would be:
WBS number
Task Description
1.0
Project initiation
1.1
Draft project plan
2.0
Analysis phase
2.1
Plan user interviews
2.2
Schedule users interviews
3.0
Examination and test
4.0
Design
5.0
Test
Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahya6.0
PrImplementation
Abdelghani Toumi
7.0
Post implementation review
28
WBS — Tips & Tricks
• Decompose as much as you can now;
revisit detail as needed.
• Remember to include a branch for
project management!
• Characteristics of the lowest level:
– One clear owner
– Able to estimate effort and duration
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
29
Tips & Tricks (cont’d)
• Developing a WBS can be a real challenge
if:
– You don’t understand the scope.
– The scope is poorly defined.
• The activities (lowest level) should be the
same regardless of how the deliverables
(upper levels) are organized.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
30
Sample: WBS of wastewater plant
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
31
Exercise: WBS (1)
• Follow the “Six Simple Steps” to develop a
WBS on the slide for your group project:
– Use sticky-notes to capture the information.
– Generate detail for one branch at a time.
– Document additional assumptions as
appropriate.
• Try to develop 2 or 3 levels
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
32
Exercise: WBS (2)
• Document your lessons learned:
– About the project you were planning.
– About developing a WBS.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
33
Summary of Key Points
• There is no “one right way” to
construct a work breakdown structure.
• AWOW — all the work and only the
work.
• Post-Its really help!
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
34
3-3 Network Logic
Module Overview
• Basic sequencing terminology
• Common errors to avoid
• Tips and tricks
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
35
Network Diagrams
Activity scheduling
• The most popular method is called Activity on Node
or activity on Arrow.
• The task (activity) is represented by a node or Arrow,
which also shows the time expected.
• Take the list of tasks from your Work Breakdown
Structure
• Determine any tasks that depend on other tasks.
• Attach resources to each task (people cannot do two
jobs at once).
• Determine the timeline for the project.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
36
Activity-on-Arrow Network Fundamentals
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
37
Sequencing Terminology
Subnet =
Design Activities
Milestone
Activity
A
Req’ts
Done
Activity
B
Activity
C
Activity
D
Dependency
Activity
E
• B is predecessor
• E is successor Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
Design
Done
38
Exercise: Basic Concepts
• Working in teams, create a network logic
diagram for the breakfast “project” on the next
slide.
• Assume unlimited resources and use finish-tostart dependencies.
• Sequence the activities as shown but note any
problems, issues, or assumptions.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
39
Exercise : Breakfast Project
• Juice — get glass, get juice from fridge,
pour juice, put glass with juice on
table.
• Coffee — get coffee pot, fill pot with
water, put coffee in pot, make coffee,
get cup from cabinet, pour coffee, put
cup with coffee on table.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
40
3-4 Estimating Fundamentals
time, cost and budget
Module Overview
• What do we estimate and why?
• The estimating process
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
41
Estimating Drive Time
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
42
What Do We Estimate?
• Effort — labor units required to
complete an assignment; usually hours
of a person’s time.
• Duration — work periods required to
complete an assignment.
• Elapsed time — calendar periods
required to complete an assignment.
• Cost — monetary value of labor,
materials, and contracts.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
43
The Estimating Process : Factors to consider
• Planning Horizon : the quality estimates of the
current events are close to 100% accurate but
are reduced for more distant events.
• Long duration Project increases uncertainty in
estimates
• A new technology : implementing a new
technology with a poor written scope
specifications result in errors in estimating
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
44
The Estimating Process : Factors to
consider
1-People :
Accuracy of estimates depends on the skills of
people making the estimates
How people skills are near to the work to do?
Team harmony ?
2-Project Structure : the type of project
structure chosen influence time and cost
estimates ( Example : a dedicated project team
Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahyais speedy but costly
as a permanent structure)
Pr Abdelghani Toumi
45
The Estimating Process : Factors to
consider
3-Other non-project factors : Holidays, legal
limits
4- Responsibility: estimates should be done by
persons most familiar with the task
5-Delphi estimating Method : Use several persons to
estimate and find consensus
6-Time unit : specific time units to use should be
selected early in the development phase
7-Adding risk assessment to the estimates : help
to avoid surprises to stakeholders
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
46
The Estimating Process Review
• Define and document:
– Work to be done (based on scope)
– Assumptions (about scope or work)
– Range of possible outcomes
– Relevant supporting detail
• Review and revise as necessary
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
47
Effort Estimates and
Project Budgets
Rules are made for the guidance
of wise folk and the obedience of
fools.
Anonymous
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
48
Module Overview
•
•
•
•
Costing : some approaches
Converting estimates into budgets
Cost reserves
Getting your budget approved
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
49
Costing
The easiest way to cost the project is to take
the WBS and estimate the costs of each
activity. Other considerations include
capital costs, disbursements, costs of
delays, contingencies.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
50
Probable Time Estimate
PERT is a management tool that is
suited for research and development
projects which are generally non-repetitive
in nature and is sometime called “ once
through” projects.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
51
Three time estimates namely
1. Optimistic time-estimated minimum time an activity will
it take. Its probability is about 1 in 100 or 1%
2. Most Likely or probabilistic time- the estimated normal
length of time an activity takes. This is the time expected
that will most frequently required for an activity.
3. Pessimistic time-the estimated maximum time that will
be required under the worst conditions. Its probability is
about -1 in 100 or 1%
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
52
Probability of
Occurrence
Converting Estimates into Budgets
Most likely
25
30
Budget =
Expected value =
(O + ML + P) / 3
35
Optimistic
50
Pessimistic
Possible Outcomes
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
53
Terminologies in Statistics
• Expected Value-is the weighted average of all
possible values that this random variable can
take on.
• Variance-is a measure of how far a set of
numbers is spread out. It is one of several
descriptors of a probability distribution,
describing how far the numbers lie from the
mean(expected value).
• Standard Deviation-measure of variability or
diversity used in statistics and probability.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
54
Summing Ranges
• First, for each activity calculate:
– Expected value = EV =
( optimistic + most likely + pessimistic ) / 3
– Variance = (( pessimistic – optimistic ) / 5 )
2
• Then, for the project calculate:
– Project
– Project
– Project
project
EV = sum of activity EVs
variance = sum of activity variances
standard deviation = square root of
variance
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
55
Problem No.1
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
56
56
Interpretation Problem No. 1
• Mean EV= 41.57 or 42
• Standard Deviation=20
This means that almost all activity
can be finished(71% assuming a normal
distribution) within 20 days of the mean
(22 days-62 days).
5/7=71
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
57
Exercise No. 1 . Determine the variance &
standard deviation. Include the interpretation
Opt
ML
Pess
Send email to experts
3
5
8
Create tracking mechanism
2
3
5
75
100
125
125
150
250
Review 100 documents
Develop design document
…
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
58
Exercise No. 2: Effort, Budgets, and Reserves
• Develop range estimates of effort for
the activities at the lowest level of your
WBS.
• Record the estimates on the form
provided:
– Calculate the expected value for each.
– Calculate the variance for each.
• Sum the most likely values and the
expected values.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
59
… continued
• Calculate the standard deviation of your
project estimate:
– Sum the activity variances.
– The square root of the sum is the project’s
standard deviation.
• Estimate a general cost reserve for your
project. Be prepared to justify it.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
60
3-5Project Schedule
You can take your horse
to the river, you can not
force it to drink water
Arab proverb
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
61
3-4 Scheduling
Module Overview
•
•
•
•
•
•
Gantt chart
Critical path calculations
Preliminary schedules
Baseline schedules
Resource constraints
Schedule reserve
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
62
Which Path Is Most Likely to Cause
Delay?
A (18)
D (11)
Start
B (14)
E (13)
Activity
(Duration)
C (12)
F (16)
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
Finish
63
Definitions: Critical Path
• The network path:
– Which is most likely to cause the project
to be late.
– With the longest duration.
– Which determines the shortest total
length of the project.
– With the least amount of “float.”
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
64
Definition of Terms
* Critical Path- the longest route in
the network of activities representing
a project. Activities along the critical
path are called Critical activities of the
project that may result of the delay in
the entire project.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
65
* Earliest start (ES)- This is always
equal to the earliest event at the
beginning of an arrow which is
sometimes called i-node. The point of
an arrow is called j-node
i-node
J-node
It is the first day after the physical
assumption of the activity.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
66
* Earliest Finish (EF). This is the earliest
possible time that an activity can be
finished. It is equal to its earliest start plus
its duration or time. Therefore:
EF = ES + duration
* Latest Start(LS). This is the latest time
that an activity can begin and not delay
the completion time of the overall project.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
67
If the earliest start and latest start
times are the same then the activity is
critical.
Latest Finish(LF). This is the latest
time that an activity can be finished
and not delay the completion time of
the overall project.
LS = LF-duration
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
68
As with start times, the activity is critical if
the earliest finish and latest finish times
are the same.
* Total Float(TF)- The span of time an
activity can be delayed after its earliest
start time without delaying the project
completion. This is the difference between
the earliest start time and the latest start
time.
TF = LF-EF or TF= LS-ES
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
69
Free Float (FF)- The span of time an
activity can be delayed after its ES without
delaying the ES of any succeeding actual
activity that may be availed. It is equal to
the ES of any of its succeeding real
activities minus the EF of an activity in
question. This is also equal to the earliest
time at the i-node of the next succeeding
real activity minus the EF of the activity.
FF=ES-(ES + duration)
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
70
Critical Path Calculations
• Forward pass — to determine the
project’s “natural end date” based on
its early start and early finish dates.
• Backward pass — to determine late
start and late finish dates.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
71
Critical Path Calculations
EF = ES + Duration – 1
1
EF
Start
LS
LF
4
9
10
B (10)
1
15
16
F (9)
14
11
10
11
23
M (8)
22
19
H (9)
=0
1
7
6
A (6)
ES
=7
Activity
(Duration)
23
30
20
30
Q (11)
19
11
20
Finish
30
27
L (17)
14
30
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
LS = LF – Duration + 1
72
Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b)
determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days
Activity
Duration
1-2
10
1-3
6
2-4
8
2-5
13
3-5
12
4-5
4
5-6
2
ES
EF
LS
LF
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
TF
FF
Critical
73
Total (Path) Float
• The amount of time an activity
may be delayed without
affecting the project’s currently
predicted early finish date.
• Total (Path) Float =
Late Start – Early Start
• Total (Path) Float is a measure
of scheduling flexibility.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
74
GANTT CHART
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
75
GANTT CHART EXAMPLE
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
76
Two Kinds of Schedule!
• Preliminary schedule:
– Used for enterprise resource planning,
project approvals
– Produced when specific resources are
not yet known, start date not yet
confirmed
• Baseline schedule:
– Used for project planning and control
– Produced when resource availability is
Preparedstart
by Pr Sulayman
Alyahyaconfirmed,
date
is set
Pr Abdelghani Toumi
77
Building a Preliminary Schedule
• For effort-based activities, calculate the
expected duration:
– Budgeted effort hours / hours per period
/ percent available
– Example: 24 hours / 6 work hours per
day / 50% available = 8 days duration
• For all other activities, use historical
information or your best judgment.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
78
Exercise: Critical Path
• Develop activity durations for each of the
items in your WBS as described:
– Use the expected value of your effort
estimates and a 6 hour work day where
appropriate.
– Use your best judgment otherwise.
• Determine a preliminary critical path for
your project assuming that resources will
be available when needed.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
79
Summary of Key Points
•
Network logic is independent of
durations and resources.
• Scheduling is fundamentally a resource
management issue.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
80
Problem: Using the following tabulation,(a) draw the network diagram. (b)
determine the TF and FF. and (c) identify the critical activities & days
ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION PRECEDING ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY
TIME
Application approval None
5 weeks
A
Construction plan
A
15
B
Traffic study
A
10
C
Service availability
A
5
D
E
F
G
H
check
Staff report
B,C
Commission
B,C,D
approval
Wait for
F
Prepared by Pr Sulayman Alyahyaconstruction
Pr Abdelghani Toumi
occupancy
E,G
15
10
170
35
81
CRITICAL PATH
• As managers, we must be sure that
activities A,B,y,F,G and H are done on
time. If any of those activities is late,
the project will be late
• Other paths are not critical because
they can waste some time without
slowing the project. For example,
activity C, can take up to 5 extra weeks
and not holdPrepared
upbythe
project.
Pr Sulayman
AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
82
Critical Path Analysis
PERT developed in the 1950s to control large
defense projects, and have been used routinely
since then
'Critical
Path
Analysis'
sounds
very
complicated, but it's a very logical and effective
method for planning and managing complex
projects.
Prepared by Pr Sulayman AlyahyaPr Abdelghani Toumi
83