Transcript Introduction

Lecture 0
Course Overview
ES 345/485 Engineering
Probability
• Course description: Probability and its axioms,
conditional probability, sequential experiments,
independence, counting, discrete, continuous
distributions, functions of random variables,
expectations, multiple random variables and joint
distributions, central limit theorem, weak law of
large numbers, estimation of random variables.
• When:
– TTH 4:00-5:15 (Lectures)
• Classroom:
– Salazar Hall 2001
Course Webpage
Instructor Availability
• Instructor: Dr. Jack Ou
• Office: Salazar 2010B
• Office hours:
– MW 10:30-11:00, TH 3:00 to 4:00
• Email: [email protected]
– I like to communicate over email.
– I do not check my voice mail.
• Do not overlook the opportunity to
meet with the instructor.
Prerequisite: Math 211
• Chapter 1: factorial
• Chapter 2: natural log, exponential function,
finite geometric series, infinite geometric
series,
• Chapter 3: concepts of limits, fundamental
theorem of calculus, integration by parts
• Chapter 4: double integration, double
summation.
• Chapter 6: moment generating function
(similar to Laplace transform)
Khan Academy
• Useful reference:
– https://www.khanacademy.org/math/pro
bability
– https://www.khanacademy.org/math/diff
erential-calculus
– https://www.khanacademy.org/math/int
egral-calculus
Textbook
• (Required) Roy Yates and David Goodman,
“Probability and Stochastic Processes: A Friendly
Introduction for Electrical and Computer Engineers,”
Second Edition, 2005. ISBN 978-0-471-27214-4.
• (Required) W. Michael Kelly and Robert A. Donnelly,
“The Humongous Book of Statistics Problems,” 2009.
ISBN 978-1-59257-865-8.
• (Optional) Larry Gonick and Woollcott Smith, “The
Cartoon Guide to Statistics.”
• (Optional) Jim Albert, “Teaching Statistics Using
Baseball.”
Chapter 1
• Develop basic probability vocabulary.
• Example:
Chapter 2: Discrete Random
Variable
Chapter 3: Continuous Random
Variable
Concepts that permeate
throughout the book
Chapter 4: Functions of Two
Random Variable
Chapter 6: Central Limit
Theorem
• Typical Problem: A modem transmits
one million bits. What is the probability
that there are at least 499,000 ones,
but no more than 501,000 ones?
Chapter 7 : Confidence
Intervals
• Typical problem: Based on a sample of
1103 voters, the percentage of people
supporting Jerry Brown is with an
accuracy of plus or minus 3
percentage points.
Hypothesis Testing
Course Policies
• Regarding classroom conduct
• Regarding homework, exams and
Piazza
Grading
• Three exams
– (total: 60 %. Exam #1=10 %, exam #2=20%, and final=30 %)
• Class participation
– (total: 10 %. Attendance=5%, participate in active learning
exercises both in class and out of class=5%)
• Project
– 10 %
• Homework assignment:
– 20 %
Reminder: ES230 is a 3 unit course requiring an
average of 9-12 hours of study per week!
Classroom Participation
• Examples of exercises
– You are given a blank sheet of paper,
and asked to respond a brief question.
You will not be graded.
– You maybe asked to present the solution
you have worked on in class.
– You maybe asked to summarized other
students’ response
– You maybe asked to complete
anonymous survey about the course
Homework
• 20 % of the final grade
– Problems in each assignment are graded
selectively.
– Effort based.
– Each assignment can take on an average four
hours to complete
– Please start your assignment early. Do not wait till
the last minute
– Post your questions on Piazza
Homework Tips
• Try to attack the problems from different angles
– Ask the what if questions
• Summarize the question in your own words.
• “I am stuck because …..”
• “This problem frustrates me because….”
• “Here is what I do not understand…..”
• “Here is what I know about this problem….”
• Be self-critical. Be suspicious of assumptions that
you considered to be true.
• Be disciplined. If you are truly stuck, move on and
come back to work on the question.
Tests
• Review sheet
Helpful practices for better
grades
• Before class
– Download the lecture notes from the website and review
them
– Make a list of questions that you want to ask
– Make use of instructor’s office hour
• In class
– Stay awake and listen actively
– Participate in exercises
– Take notes. Make a mental list on what is confusing to you.
• After class
–
–
–
–
Set aside a time to study.
Review the notes . Use the textbook as a reference.
Do assignments/homework before the deadline
Post questions on Piazza
Dates
• 9/3 last day to drop a course with
adjusted fees (done on-line)
• 9/4-15: drop with a “W” (done on-line)
• 9/16-11/13: petition to withdraw from a
class with $20 administrative fee
(dropping classes permitted because
of serious and compelling reasons)