Transcript Workshop2005Rowan

Increasing Hurricane
Evacuation
Compliance
Katherine E. Rowan, Ph.D.
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030
[email protected]
Southeast Louisiana
Hurricane Evacuation Survey Workshop
University of New Orleans
New Orleans, LA July 21, 2005
1
Evacuation Challenges You
Face in SE Louisiana

Overcoming common “lay theories” that
hurt the public’s ability to perceive risk
from Category 2 or 3 storm
– My home is strong, sturdy, brick
– My home is on high ground, not in a flood zone
– I am in danger only in a Category 4 or 5
2
Challenges (cont’d)


Evacuating using secondary rather than
main roads
Waiting until the last day to evacuate
3
Challenges (cont’d)



Task force members over-estimating the
number of likely evacuees in a Category 2 or 3
(?)
Not enough media coverage of danger
Media-driven hype versus fact (e.g., stories on
where people can get 5 to 10 sandbags instead
of explanation of extensiveness of flood risk)
4
Challenges (cont’d)



Helping tourists understand risks
Deciding whether to use mandatory
evacuation orders
Increasing effectiveness of outreach
programs (talks to community groups, local
media)
5
Challenges (cont’d)

Addressing objections to evacuation:
– I have no place to evacuate to.
– I can’t afford it.
– You can’t guarantee the safety of my home
while I’m away.
– My employer will penalize me for evacuating.
6
This Presentation Describes
Information and Research that



Addresses challenges you identified and
those found in the UNO survey
Supports the good steps you already take
May help refine or increase the
effectiveness of your current efforts.
There are no magic words, but there are
better and worse steps to take.
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Incomplete Ideas that Reduce
Communication Effectiveness

Public education is the key.

Best method of educating is through media.

The media will only sensationalize my
message.

The public is ignorant; they won’t understand
complexities.
8
Incomplete Ideas
Come from Roles

As an official, I think the key
communication challenges I face are
– apathetic public
– uncooperative media

As a citizen, I think the key communication
challenges I face are
– officials who may not be competent or may not
have MY best interests at heart
9
Incomplete Ideas Create Poor
Communication Patterns



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Officials assume they must educate the
media and the public.
Without intending to do so, they can seem
arrogant.
The public assumes officials are not
competent or do not care about them.
Without intending to do so, the public
seems uncooperative, apathetic, suspicious.
10
Perception of Risk is Affected
by Many Factors

Research on risk perception shows people’s
roles affect their perception of danger, risk
Hazard I take on
Familiar hazard
Industry imposed
If I’m in charge
If I am unsure
=
=
=
=
=
under-estimate
under-estimate
over-estimate
I act responsibly
I let others do work
11
Instead …….

Use the “CAUSE” model
– to anticipate possible problems
– to refine refine efforts, messages not
received as intended
– to develop a clear sense for why some
steps work well
12
Rowan’s “CAUSE” Model for
Crisis and Risk Communication:
If hazards, then





Lack of Confidence (in communicators)
Lack of Awareness (of danger)
Lack of Understanding (of danger)
Lack of Satisfaction (with solutions)
Lack of Enactment (of safety steps)
13
Solution:
Expect and Address
Challenge
Goal
Easy
Earn
Confidence
Create
Awareness
Deepen
Gain
Motivate
Understanding
Difficult
Very
Difficult



Satisfaction

Enactment

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How to use “CAUSE”

Think about why your message may not be
well received:
– Lack of confidence in your motives, competence?
– Lack of awareness, understanding of danger?
– Lack of satisfaction with safety solutions?
– Lack of enactment, action?
– Focus on earning confidence first.
15
Earning Confidence

Key Obstacles—
– Suspicion of officials’ motives
– Doubts about officials’ competence
– Reluctance to take advice

Therefore, solution is to involve us:
– Share the managerial role.
– Give us jobs, roles, in evacuation.
– We will feel flattered and obligated to help.
16
Earning Confidence


Before crises occur, listen to constituents’ concerns
about emergency preparedness
Create communication scenarios
that encourage interaction, e.g.,
– Set up “parish fair booths”
instead of auditorium lectures
– Meet people in small groups
– Write a “Sunday piece” for the
Times-Picayune, invite comment
• Make local media interviews a priority
17
Earning Confidence

Encourage people to track your efforts
“Here is what we are doing. You can monitor the situation and
help by . .
“Here is what needs to be done (give steps for protecting
ourselves)


As Dr. Peter Sandman writes, don’t ask for trust. Invite
people to track you, not trust you
Give out phone numbers, evaluation forms so they can
contact you and gauge your effectiveness.
18
Earning Confidence


Research suggests people listen to media but
develop confidence in interpretations of news
with family, co-workers, neighbors, friends
Consequently, you need to
– Communicate with media AND
– Communicate with businesses, schools,
community groups to build “interpersonal
communication networks”
19
Earning Confidence


Keep speaking to community and business groups
Educate, but also INVOLVE them, so they feel
obligated to educate themselves
INVOLVE by
 Asking for help on tasks where citizens useful
– identifying vulnerable neighbors
– functioning as weather watchers (Dexter Accardo has) or
passing along evacuation info via phone trees
– asking businesses, schools, communities to give people
formal roles
20
Earning Confidence in Brief
Encounters with Media & Citizens

Show respect for audience values before teaching

Don’t begin statements to press or public with:
– “People who do not evacuate are crazy. We’re from the
government, and we know what’s right . . . ”
– “You are wrong. We are right about . . . ”

Instead say:
– “We care about . . . . We want you and your family to be safe.
We want to understand”
– “People need to know what is best for THEIR area of THEIR
parish. Knowing the category of the storm is not enough.”
21
Creating Awareness with Public



How do people become aware of emergencies,
disasters?
Incorrect beliefs about how people behave are
influenced by disaster movies, fiction
Research gives a differing picture
– Fear, “hyper-vigilance” or high alertness are usual
– Panic is not
22
Creating Awareness

Obstacles to Awareness:
– Busy, distracted by family, illness
– Don’t speak English
– Disabled, cannot hear, see

Solutions:
– Ask them how they want to be contacted.
– Contact several ways: TV, radio, phone trees,
highway signs
23
Research on
Creating Awareness with Public


Most people learn about emergencies from
media, co-workers, friends, family
Most people engage in “confirmatory” or
verification behavior when they hear a warning
– few simply obey media messages
– most try to confirm, interpret first

Coping with emergencies creates workplace vs.
home responsibility tensions
24
Creating Awareness with Media



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Mass media are far better at creating awareness of an
event’s occurrence than explaining why, how
However, in an emergency, what you need is
awareness
Never underestimate massive REPETITION of
messages as a way to create awareness
Examples where repetition may help
– Pictures of evacuation routes, info on northbound only
routes
25
Creating Awareness with Media

CDC’s Risk Communication
Training:
During an emergency:
– Respect media’s role
– Establish rapport
– Don’t expect to tell them what to do
– Provide verified information
26
Deepening Understanding

Sometimes awareness is not enough

People often need fuller comprehension

When explaining complex information, anticipate two
standard obstacles or sources of confusion:
– Familiar words not well understood
– Ideas hard-to-understand because counter-intuitive
27
Explaining Familiar Words
Often Misunderstood

Examples
– Shelter-in-place
– Tornado watch
vs. warning
– Brief trauma
counseling after
crisis vs. therapy
28
Clarifying Intended Meaning

Example: Clarifying the phrase “shelter-in-place”

Say what the word does not mean
– Shelter-in-place does not mean evacuate
(This info was news to residents of Washington, DC!)

Say what it does mean
– This phrase means to stay where you are
– Give a range of examples (stay in home, at office)
29
Explaining Counter-intuitive Ideas

Some ideas are hard to understand because
they are hard to believe:
– Hurricanes can “batter” people to death. People
get hurt when battered by cars, homes, and trees
in the rushing water
– Your past good luck is misleading now. You
need to know risk for your area of your parish.
Depending on the elevation of your home, you
could be at risk in a Category 2 or 3 storm.
30
Encouraging Consideration of
Counter-intuitive Ideas

State the lay theory and acknowledge its apparent
reasonableness
– Many assume they are safe in a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.
This has been true for the last 30 years.

Create dissatisfaction with the lay theory
– Over the last three decades SE Louisiana has sunk farther
below sea level. The surrounding wetlands that act like
sponges have shrunk.

Explain the more accepted view
– A relatively low storm surge from a slow Category 2 or 3
hurricane could flood an area that is below sea level. Learn
more about the risks for YOUR area of YOUR parish. 31
Partnering with Media

Write or encourage “Sunday pieces” – in-depth
analyses of ongoing problem.

Identify reporters who produce these analyses.

Give them more topics for more Sunday pieces.
32
Gaining Satisfaction with
Evacuation

Research says people agree when
– They trust the source of the message or highly
–
–
–
–
identify with the message source.
They believe the hazard is SEVERE.
They believe the hazard affects THEM.
They believe they CAN OVERCOME the hazard.
They believe the recommended action will
WORK.
33
Gaining Satisfaction
Using these criteria, let’s examine Mr. Troxler’s
recent comments in The Times-Picayune:
“What people don’t realize is we do have serious
concerns. . . .
“A Category 2 can be particularly catastrophic
“If your home elevation doesn’t say 10 feet or
higher, chances are you are vulnerable”
34
Gaining Satisfaction
Let’s examine Mr. Accardo’s speech to
Lion’s Club:
“You need a family plan. Assume power goes
out and you can’t reach your wife or your
kids. Your company needs you for
emergency work. Are you going to be able
to function not knowing how your family
is?”

35
Motivating Enactment

Individuals are notorious for low disaster
preparation.

Preparedness can be more likely when
encouraged at workplace (see Drabek).

Classic obstacles to enactment: Too tired,
busy, hard, costly
36
Motivating Enactment

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Make action easy
Make action simple
Give deadline or timeframe
Reduce cost, increase attractiveness
Examples:
–
–
–
–
–
Offer pre-packaged survival kits at stores
Survival kits as Father’s Day gifts
Family plans as Mother’s Day gifts
Tax credits as incentives for evacuation
Request steps easy to take—talk to neighbors
37
To create greater ease:
Partner with Business, State

Suggest a “Hands Across Louisiana”
program for evacuees
– Hotels in Northern Louisiana offer reduced
rates for evacuees
– In return, hotels in SE Louisiana offer reduced
rates for Northern Louisiana


Businesses, universities, schools, as shelters
“No penalty by employers” for evacuees
38
Partnering with Business

Try an ad campaign to encourage benefits of
evacuation:
Man in air conditioned living room
watching cable TV. Says to companion:
“Honey, you were SO smart to insist on
evacuation. If we were home right now,
we’d have no power, no AC, and no cable.”
39
In Summary

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Consider message, goal in emergency
Consider likely tensions, obstacles
Use CAUSE model to identify likely obstacles
Realize there are no magic words
There are better and worse steps
Your steps will be good ones
40
References
Earning Confidence as a Spokesperson
 Fearn-Banks, K. (2002). Crisis communications,
2nd ed. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
 Sandman, P. (1993). Responding to community
outrage: Strategies for effective risk
communication. Fairfax, VA: American Industrial
Hygiene Association.
 Sandman’s website:
www.psandman.com
41
References
Earning Confidence as a Spokesperson and
Partnering with Public:
 U. S. Dept. of HHS (2002). Communicating in a
crisis: Risk communication guidelines for public
officials. Washington, DC.
www.riskcommunication.samshsa.gov
 Center for Environmental Communication.
Rutgers University.
http://aesop.rutgers/edu/~cec/home.html
42
References
Creating Awareness and Partnering with Media
during Emergencies
 Drabek, T. E. (2001). Disaster warning and
evacuation responses by private business
employees. Disasters, 25, 76-94.
 Quarantelli, E. L. (1988). Disaster crisis
management: A summary of research. Journal of
Management Studies, 25, 373-385.
43
References
Deepening Understanding of Complexities
 Rowan, K. E. (1999). Effective explanation of
uncertain and complex science. In S. Friedman et
al. Communicating uncertainty. Mahwah, NJ:
Erlbaum.
 Rowan, K. E. (1991). Goals, obstacles and
strategies in risk communication. Journal of
Applied Communication Research, 19, 300-329.
44
References



Dow, K., & Cutter, S. L. (1988). Crying wolf:
Repeat responses to hurricane evacuation orders.
Coastal Management, 26, 237-252.
National Mental Health Association (2003).
Blueprint for responding to public mental health
needs in times of crisis.
Tierney, K. J., et al. (2001). Facing the
unexpected: Disaster preparation and response in
the United States. Washington, DC: Joseph Henry
Press.
45
References
Additional Web Sites and Sources
 Society for Risk Analysis: www.sra.org
For education and training in crisis, risk, emergency
communication:
 www.cdc.gov/communication/emergency
 Mike Rowan, University of W. Florida at
[email protected] (television journalist)
 Robin Rowan, ad copy, travel writer
([email protected])
 Dr. Joye Gordon, Kansas State University, risk
communication expert, [email protected]
46