Transcript ppt - WMO

Proposal for a
WWRP
High Impact Weather Project
Sarah Jones, Brian Golding
Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert,
Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink,
Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin,
David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank,
Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu
THORPEX ICSC 11
15 - 17 July 2013
Background
•WWRP THORPEX ends in 2014
•WMO EC June 2012: Two new WWRP Projects
–S2S: Subseasonal to Seasonal
–PPP: Polar Prediction Project
•THORPEX ICSC October 2012:
– Identified potential need for additional project
•What is missing?
– High Impact Weather plays important role in S2S and PPP
– But S2S does not cover issues related to improving predictions of High
Impact Weather on minutes-to-weeks time scales
– PPP focussed on specific geographical region
Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP High Impact Weather Project
Development of Proposal
• Brainstorming after ICSC-10, Initial proposal to ICSC
• North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting
January 2013 in Austin, TX, USA
• Initial international workshop to define scope & objectives
March 2013 in Karlsruhe, Germany
• Appointment of task team
Chair: Sarah Jones, WMO Consultant: Brian Golding
May 2013, 21 Members representing 9 nations/ WWRP & THORPEX WGs
• First draft of outline proposal
End of May 2013
• Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives
14-19 June 2013
• Submit draft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC
9 July 2013
• Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward
• Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November
Mission of Project
The overall objective of the High Impact Weather
project is to:
“Promote cooperative international research to
achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high
impact weather, worldwide, through improving
forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks
and enhancing their communication and utility in
social, economic and environmental applications”
Scope of Project
Achieve a major advance in the ability of individuals,
businesses and communities to reduce adverse
weather impacts
●
Improve understanding of factors
influencing predictability of HIW
Improve forecast accuracy, resolution and lead time
of HIW forecasts
●
Relate High Impact Weather forecasts to human
impact, taking account of vulnerability
●
Reduce impact of High Impact Weather by
improving communication
●
Scope of Project
Applications:
• Increase resilience of social, economic and
environmental receptors
• Provide justification
• Determine key impacts
• Reap the benefits of research
Research programme that responds
to the needs of the users
for specific weather-related applications
Scope of Project
Scope of Project
Scope of Project
Scope of Project
Key research goal 1
Improve understanding of factors determining
predictability during HIW
Research Theme: Predictability and Processes
Improve understanding of factors determining
predictability during High Impact Weather events
Analysis of processes
Observations
Predictability &
Processes
Diagnosis of
model errors
RG 1: Predictability and Processes
Aspects that are relevant to significant impacts
–Address gaps in understanding of atmosphere, ocean and
land surface processes relevant to HIW
–Improve models, tools and forecast skill
NOAA
COPS
Danish Met Office
NOAA
THORPEX
Key research goal 2
Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed
to forecast weather impacts
Predictability &
Processes
Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction
Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed
to forecast weather impacts
Coupled Systems
Minutes to weeks
Local to Global
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
RG 2: Multi-scale Prediction
Improve predictions of atmosphere, ocean & land
surface variables that cause weather-related impacts
–Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to hazards
covering local to global scales and minutes to weeks
–Using coupled ensemble prediction systems
–Including novel observations via advanced data assimilation
NOAA
NOAA
ECMWF
Key research goal 3
Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk
Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings
Assess impact of hazard on
individuals, communities
and businesses
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Learn about their
vulnerability
Quantify risk
arising from
hazard
RG 3: Vulnerability & Risks
Assess impacts of natural hazards on receptors
–Modelling complete chain: source pathways receptors
complex pathways involving natural & built environments
–Characterise impact on receptors depending on their exposure
and vulnerability
• Separate impacts on individuals, businesses & countries
• Incorporate ability of receptors to respond and recover
• Consider impacts of disasters on health and well-being
UNISDR
NWS
UNISDR
Key research goal 4
Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Research Theme: Evaluation
Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings
Rigorous evaluation of
forecasts & warnings
of hazards and their
impacts
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Define how to
measure
benefits
of research
RG 4: Evaluation
Maximise utility of forecasts and warnings
–Methods for evaluating probabilistic forecasts, especially for
low-probability, high impact events
–Present verification results appropriate for different users
–Methods to evaluate impact of forecasts and warnings
–Assess impact of evaluation results on risk forecasts
NWS
NCEP
Key research goal 5
Achieve more effective responses
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Research Theme: Communication
Achieve more effective responses
Improve formulation and
communication
of forecasts &
warnings
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Commu
nication
RG 5: Communication
Maximise response to available information
–How to reach people at highest risk and ensure response
–Paradigms describing response of receptor groups
–Optimum sort of forecast/warning services, in dependence of
hazard
–Best format of information for different receptors
DWD
NHC
UNISDR
NHC
Cross-cutting activities
Joint activities of research topics to realise
benefits of the research
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Applications in the forecasting process
Seamless from nowcasting to
short-range NWP
Automation
Interpretation
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Commu
nication
Assessment of
impacts
Communication
Cross-cutting activities
Design of observing strategies
Opportunities from sophisticated
high resolution observations
Assessment of local vs. global
Impacts and responses
Quality control
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Uncertainty
Understanding
Predicting
Evaluating
Communicating
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Field campaigns and demonstration projects
Utilise data from previous campaigns
Exploit planned activities:
Lake Victoria RDP / FDP
T-NAWDEX
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Commu
nication
Link to TIGGE-LAM
Involve End Users
Cross-cutting activities
Knowledge Transfer
Between scientific disciplines
Between research and operations
Internationally
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Verification
Linking process understanding, model
development, evaluation
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Commu
nication
Cross-cutting activities
Impact forecasting
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Focussing research activities on
advances needed to forecast the
impacts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Impact Forecasting
Commu
nication
Transfer of Results
Transfer results and benefits of research back to
receptors in an adequate manner
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Impact Forecasting
Commu
nication
External Engagement
• To-date: knowledge of user requirements
present in task team
• During further development of implementation
plan: Engage with national / international bodies
that already engage with users
• During project: meet with end users at variety of
levels to define user needs and transfer results
Strategies to achieve goals
•Develop linkages with other initiatives
–International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups,
national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk
reduction
•Strengthen inter-disciplinary linkages between
academia, research institutions and oper. centres
–Driven by stakeholders who are concerned with the outcome
of increasing resilience, carried out in disciplinary groups
•Engage communication of scientists with different
backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc.
Strategies to achieve goals
•Establish and exploit special research datasets
–Report additional observations through GTS
–Continue TIGGE / TIGGE LAM to foster research activities
concerning multi-model ensemble processing
Significant results for low probability events require large datasets
•Interaction and communication with stakeholders
–Identify needs of stakeholders, engage them and communicate
effectively
•Support research and demonstration projects
–Study communication of forecast, perception of recipients and
their actions in the field
(T-NAWDEX, Lake Victoria, HYMEX, Severe Weather testbed…)
Builds on THORPEX – what is new?
• Defined by needs of specific weather-related
applications
• Interaction and communication with stakeholders
• Exploit opportunities from high resolution models
and observations
• Include coupled systems
• Vulnerability and Risk, Evaluation, Communication
Links to S2S: “handover “ for time-scale; benefit from
related activities
Links to PPP: Collaborate and delineate
WWRP
High Impact Weather Project
Predictability &
Processes
Multiscale
Forecasts
Vulnerability &
Risk
Evaluation
Applications in the forecasting process
Design of observing strategies
Uncertainty
Field campaigns & demonstrations
Knowledge Transfer
Verification
Impact Forecasting
Commu
nication
Mission of Project
The overall objective of the High Impact Weather
project is to:
“Promote cooperative international research to
achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high
impact weather, worldwide, through improving
forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks
and enhancing their communication and utility in
social, economic and environmental applications”
Task Team Members
Chair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany)
WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK)
Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability)
Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology)
Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee)
Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG)
Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective)
Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG)
Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process)
Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE)
Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET Obs Programme, Observations)
Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation)
Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA)
Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling)
David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE)
Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG)
Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG)
Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE)
Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling)
Jian Jie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG)
Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG)
Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG)
Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO)
Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects