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Lecture Five The Cold War Emerges From Allies to Enemies “If we see that Germany is winning the war we ought to help Russia, and if Russia is winning we ought to help Germany and in that way let them kill as many as possible.” Harry S. Truman, 1941 The Postwar Balance of Power GNP, 1950 (billions) Defense Spending, 1948 (billions) United States $381 $10.9 Soviet Union $126 $13.1 Britain $71 $3.4 Germany $48 $0 Source: Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. The Cold War Emerges 1945-1947 Problems Arise First in Eastern Europe: The Yalta Conference Soviets Want Sphere of Influence in Eastern Europe. U.S. Wants Independent Democratic Governments in the Region Soviets Have Military Advantage; Install Pro-Soviet Governments Throughout Region Between 1946-49 The Soviet Periphery Iran, 1946 Occupied by USSR & Britain in 1946; Troops to be W/drawn in 6 months Soviets Do Not Withdraw, and Begin to Pressure Iranian Government. U.S. Begins to Supply Weapons to Shah of Iran Turkey, 1945-46 Soviets Demand Control of Dardanelles U.S. Sends Naval Task Force into Mediterranean Greece, 1945-47 Civil War Between Monarchists and Indigenous Communists Soviet Expansion The Conflict Intensifies 1947-1949 The United States Truman Doctrine and Containment, March 12, 1947. Aid To Greece and Turkey Broader Strategic Agenda The Marshall Plan, June 5, 1947. Foreign Aid to European Countries to Assist Reconstruction and Prevent Communist Victories. Marks the Beginning of the Partition of Europe. The Soviet Union Responds The Berlin Blockade and Airlift, June 24, 1948 - May 12, 1949. Soviets Explode Atomic Bomb in 1949. The United States Responds NSC-68 and The Militarization of the US-Soviet Conflict. Ordered by Truman in Early 1950 in Response to Soviet A-Bomb. Evaluate Nature of Soviet Threat and US Policy Toward the Soviet Union. NSC-68 Concludes That: USSR is Inherently Expansionist Expansion Fuelled by Messianic Faith that was Antithetical to American Way of Life. Containment would Require Global Offensive Against Soviet Bloc. Advocated Substantial U.S. Rearmament The Korean War Korea Had Been Partitioned Between U.S. and USSR in 1945. In Summer of 1950 North Korea Invades South Korea. U.S. Responds By Mobilizing UN and Pursuing War Against North Korea. Broader Implications: Appears to Confirm Soviet Expansionism Could This Happen in Europe? Leads to Militarization of Superpower Conflict in Europe. Consequences of the Cold War The Division of Europe Division of Rest of the World into Three Blocks East, West, Non-Aligned Movement All International Conflicts Viewed through Cold War Prism UN Rendered Ineffective What Was the Cold War About? Traditionalists: Soviet Expansionism Revisionists: American Expansionism Post-Revisionists: Bipolar Power Structure One Puzzling Question: Why No War Between USSR and US?