Transcript the bolivarian vision and its use

THE BOLIVARIAN
REVOLUTION: CREATING
A HYBRID REGIME?
(as of – 2009)
SIX DIMENSIONS
Generational turnover
 Phenomena that sustain the new elite
 Bolivarian Vision and its use
 Constraints of the vision
 Elections and Referendums
 The Future

I. GENERATIONAL TURNOVER
REVOLUTIONARY LEADERSHIP:
NEW & OLD
QUEBEC SUMMIT (APRIL 2001): DECISIVE IN
SHAPING PRESIDENT CHAVEZ’S
CONFRONTATIONAL STYLE?
A NEW GENERATION OF IMPLEMENTERS
BOLI-BURGESIA


Vehicle of Choice
Living as a socialist
revolutionary
II. PHENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW
ELITE
Class conflict
 Hostility to western modernization

CARACAS: MODERN & WESTERN?
CARACAS: POOR & PRIMITIVE
PHENOMENA THAT SUSTAIN THE NEW
ELITE: CLASS CONFLICT
OTHER PHENOMENON THAT SUSTAIN
THE BOLIVARIANS
Memories (some implanted) of venality and
incompetence of the defunct liberal democratic
regime
 Revenge against those who benefited from Punto
Fijo
 Anti-Americanism

III. THE BOLIVARIAN VISION AND
ITS USE
ABANDON FAILED ISI POLICIES

Replace the (mistaken) vision of using Venezuelan
wealth to emulate living style of the North Atlantic
“Punto Fijo” democracy unraveled because it stimulated
desire for western life style that is neither feasible or
desirable
 ISI (between 1958 – 1990) sought to facilitate high levels of
middle class consumption

OPPOSE SAVAGE NEO-LIBERALISM

Mistaken reliance on free markets to
“westernize”

Not feasible in Latin America

Not desirable
MORE ON THE BOLIVARIAN VISION

Basic human needs must be made available to all
Education
 health care
 Housing
 Culture


Petroleum income can facilitate the vision (some
things never change)
STILL MORE
ON THE BOLIVARIAN VISION
Disdain for the traditional middle class
 Suspicion of meritocracy – a cover to exclude the
disadvantaged
 Emphasis: equality of outcome
 Highest priority - making the urban slums livable

USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION:
DOMESTIC AFFAIRS

Discredit accomplishments of defunct liberal
democracy
Failure to reach stated goals
 Corruption

Domestic entrepreneurial sector attacked for
selfishness and corruption
 Urban space with middle class symbols allowed to
deteriorate

USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION:
TAMING THE MILITARY




Among 59 top positions in the Venezuelan armed
forces - Chávez changed 45 (75%) in July 2005 and
2006
National Guard – most impacted (24 of the 29 top
positions)
Ties with Cuba replace training by U.S. military
asymmetric warfare
to discourage opposition hope that the Marines will land
 Alternative force to regular military

CHANGES MILITARY
DOCTRINE/TRAINING
War College in Los Chorros closed for six months
 Manuals and text books being rewritten
 Emphasis on asymmetric warfare

USE OF THE BOLIVARIAN VISION:
INTERNATIONAL ARENA
Controlled elevation of tensions with the United States
(symbol of Western consumerism)
 Search for allies that seek to diminish power/influence
of the United States
 Policies that bolster high price for petroleum

OPEC
 China

CHÁVEZ’S HEMISPHERIC VISION:
BRAZIL PLAYS A KEY ROLE IN
REDUCING U.S. INFLUENCE
IV. CONSTRAINTS ON CHÁVEZ’S
BOLIVARIAN “VISION”


Class conflict emphasis
complicates using
expertise/talent
developed between 195898
Talent necessary to stem
deterioration of
infrastructure
OTHER CONSTRAINING
CONSEQUENCES



Failure to define role for loyal opposition
strengthens option of political change by force
Discouragement of foreign investment from the
North Atlantic – unintended consequence increases dependence on petroleum income
“Small vision” ISI strengthens dependence on
revenue from petroleum
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT: A
CONSTRAINT ON THE CHÁVEZ
VISION?
USA AS SEEN BY THE VENEZUELAN
PEOPLE
Many supporters of Bolivarian revolution have
brought into Chávez’s negative view of the Untied
States
 Positive view of the U.S. at all time low (35% in poll of
public opinion – Sept. 2005)
 Bolivarians see some groups in U.S. as allies in their
struggle with U.S. ruling elite

Poor
 Leftist academics
