Transcript How ARMS data are used--a federal perspective

How ARMS Data Are Used:
A Federal Perspective
Jim Johnson and Mitch Morehart
Data to Serve 21st Century Agriculture: Expanding the Agricultural
Resource Management Survey
December 4-5, 2003
St. Louis, Missouri
Presentation Outline
• Use of ARMS Within the Federal Government
• Scope of the ARMS Survey Program
• Dissemination of ARMS-Based Reports and Data
• ARMS Data Availability for 15 States With
Largest Value of Agricultural Production
ARMS data are used widely within the
federal government
1. Responding to Congressional Mandates
2. Meeting Executive Branch Responsibilities Held by
USDA
3. Developing Statistically Defensible Information
Regarding Farm Households, Their Farms, and
Resources Used in Production
4. Providing Data to Respond to USDA Policies &
Programs
5. Enabling Research to Inform Public and Private
Decision makers on Major Agricultural Issues
Congressional Mandates Supported by ARMS
Cost and Returns Estimates
United States Code, Title 7, Chapter 35 A, Subchapter II, Section 1441a…”shall
conduct a cost of production study…”
Report on the Status of Family Farms
United States Code, Title 7, Chapter 55, Section 2266…”shall submit to
Congress…report containing current information on trends”
Estimates of Net Farm Income by Farm Type
Public Law 107-171, “Farm Security and Rural Investment Act, Section 1615…..”net
income of commercial producers of loan commodities, livestock, and other crop
commodities”
Prices Paid by Farmers
ARMS provides weights for computation of the Prices Paid by Farmers Index, a
component used to calculate Parity Prices as required by the Agricultural
Adjustment Act of 1933
What does “shall conduct a cost of
production study” include?
“…study of the wheat, feed grain, cotton, and dairy
commodities under the various production practices
and establish a current national weighted average cost
of production…..shall include all typical variable costs,
including interest costs, a return on fixed costs, and a
return for management.”
Information for the Family Farm Report
1. Trends in family farm operations and non-family farm operations
2. Information on agricultural and agricultural-related programs
3. Assessment of tax laws and credit
4. Assessment of credit needs of family farms and the extent to which
those needs are being met
5. Assessment of how economic policies and trade policies of the
United States affect the financial operation of, and prospects for,
family farm operations
6. Assessment of the effect of Federal farm programs on family farms
and non-family farms that (1) derive the majority of their income
from non-farm sources, and (2) derive the majority of their income
from farming operations
Requirement for Estimates of Net
Farm Income
“Each issuance of projections of net farm income…shall
include….(1) an estimate of net farm income earned by
commercial producers in the United States; and (2) an
estimate of the net farm income attributable to
commercial producers of each of the following:
(a) Livestock.
(b) Loan Commodities
(c) Agricultural commodities other than loan
commodities”
Specific USDA Responsibilities
Supported by ARMS
• National Estimates of Net Income for Farm Sector
Agreement Among Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Department of
Commerce, and USDA (March 1956)—USDA Produces Estimates of Farm Income for
US Government (agreement reported in GAO/GCD-83-1, Dec 1982)
Estimates Submitted to Department of Commerce for Inclusion in National
Estimates of Gross Domestic Product, Gross State Product and Personal Income
Estimates Submitted to Council of Economic Advisers for Use in “Economic
Indicators,” a Report Released by the Joint Economic Committee of the Congress
• Income of Farm Households
USDA Release No. 0383.93, May 1993--household income concurrent with farm
income
Effects of ARMS Main Uses on
Survey Development
Sample Design: represent all farms, include range of production
practices used by farmers, and reflect operator’s household decisions
with regard to work and sources of income
Questionnaire Content: provide data to produce cost, farm and
household income estimates along with other indicators such as weights
for prices paid; data capable of underpinning analyses of current and
emerging policy issues
Timing: meet date for delivery of income estimates to the
Department of Commerce
ARMS greater than the sum of its parts
Phase I: Summer Interview to Screen Participants
(May-June)
Phase II: Questionnaire Designed to Provide InDepth Perspective About Chemical Use, Production
Practices, etc… (Oct-Dec)
Phase III: Questionnaire Designed to Provide InDepth Perspective About Farm Economics,
Household Finances, Farm and Operator
Characteristics (Feb-April)
State-Level
Household-Farm
“Core” Survey
National Focus
Household-Farm
Survey
Phase III Versions Linked to support income,
financial performance, and structural analyses
for households and businesses
Production
Practices and
Costs Report
(commodity)
Phase II & III
versions linked to
support adoption & cost
distribution analyses
Enterprise Linked
Household-Farm
Survey
Phase III Versions Also Linked to
Phase II to support assessment of
structure and environmental
issues
Dissemination of ARMS-Based Reports
and Data
•Current Conditions and Forecasts
•ERS Reports on Issues
•Policy Analysis
•Periodicals
•Research Studies
•Data Products
Current Conditions
and Forecasts
Agriculture Income
and Finance Outlook
Annual report describing
the current financial
status of U.S. farm
businesses and farm
operator households.
Enterprise Cost of Production Estimates and
Studies
Family Farm Report
Annual report describing
structural and financial
characteristics of U.S farms.
ERS Reports on Issues
Policy Analysis
Policy Analysis
Periodicals
Research
Technology Adoption
Decisions in Dairy
Production and the Role
of Herd Expansion
Pest Management in U.S.
Agriculture
Land Tenure and the
Adoption of
Conservation Practices
Factors Contributing to Earnings
Success of Cash Grain Farms
Genetically Engineered Crops
for Pest Management in U.S.
Agriculture
An Analysis of Risk Premia in
U.S. Farm-Level Interest Rates
Data Products
Data Products
Report Creator for Farm Business and Farm Operator
Household Financial and Structural Data, Enterprise Field
Practice, Costs and Returns, and Major States
Example Tables for Major Agricultural States