Transcript Document
CONFLICTING VISIONS: THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR AS A “REVOLUTION” A Presentation by Roger Ransom University of California, Riverside Objective 1: Discuss My Research Dealing With Economic Interpretations Of The Civil War Drawing on My Expertise as a Cliometrician Clio = Muse of History Metrics = Quantitative Measurement This Is Interesting Stuff [To Me..] But Your Students May Find It A Bit “Boring” Objective 2: Discuss An Imaginary World Where The South Won The Civil War ! This is Called Counterfactual History or Alternate History A Game That I First Played In The 1950s … And More Recently As an Author Two Things Middle School Kids Like: Imagination Maps! How To Explain The Civil War? To Charles And Mary Beard: The War Was A Second American Revolution The Cause Of The War Was Economic Change Industrial Change In The Northern States … With A Rapidly Expanding Population Agrarian Society In The Southern States … Tied To A System Of Slavery And Cotton By The 1850s The North Had Gained An Economic And Political Dominance That Threatened The Southern “Way Of Life” How To Explain The Civil War? The Beards Claimed The Civil War Was “An Irrepressible Conflict” In The 1960s Cliometricians Pointed Out Developments That Seemed To Undermine Beards’ Explanation First Was The Fact That The Southern States Were NOT An “Economically Backward” Region How to Explain the Civil War? The South was a Major Source of Economic Growth for The National Economy West ships foodstuffs to the North In exchange for manufactures. This trade expanded rapidly after The Erie Canal is finished in 1826. West ships foodstuffs to the South. South buys manufactures from abroad and shipping Services from the North. North buys cotton, sugar and tobacco from South. Southern Cotton is shipped to Great Britain and Europe. These exports finance imports into the South and the rest of the U.S. How to Explain the Civil War? The Beards Claimed The Civil War Was A Conflict Between: A Dynamic Northern Economy That Was Industrializing and A Southern Economy That Was Lagging Behind But Our Analysis Suggests That The South Was NOT Lagging Behind BOTH SIDES Were Doing Well Economically In 1860 BOTH SIDES Had A Lot To Lose And Very Little To Gain Economically From A Disruptive War War That Would Seriously Disrupt Trade In ALL Regions What to Make of All This? Historians: Economic Factors Were NOT An Important Cause of the War Economic Historians: Don’t Argue with this Conclusion The Civil War “Just Happens” Problem: Then What Did Cause the Civil War? Answer: No One Seems to Know … Maybe The War Was A Tragic Mistake Caused by A Blundering Generation of Leaders … Another Look at The Beard Thesis Strength of the Beard’s Argument Was That Economic Change Produced Two Conflicting Economic Systems Were There “Irreconcilable Differences” Between Regions of the United States? Beards Claim You Could See These Conflicts In the Decennial Census Returns WERE THEY RIGHT? Let’s A Closer Look At the U.S. Census Data In 1860 What Are We Looking For: In the North: The North is becoming a Market Society Production for the Market Decline in Home Production Increase in Manufacturing and Commerce Growth of Urban Centers Growth of Financial Institutions A Diverse Population Influx of Immigration What Are We Looking For: In the South: Slave Plantation Sell Cash Crops Yeoman Farms Remain Self-Sufficient Reliance on Home Production No Urban Development Key Point is that the South Wants to Remain Just Like It Was In 1790! A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words … AGRICULTURE: Farm Size in 1860 West: Family Farms Free Labor Tilled Acres per Farm 9 to 50 Acres 50 to 100 Acres 100 to 250 Acres South: Plantations Slave Labor Over 250 Acres Per Capital Value of HOME MANUFACTURES in 1860 Home Manufactures Have Practically Disappeared in the North Home Manufactures ($) Not Reported $0.00 to $2.50 $2.50 to $10.00 $10.00 to $25.00 Over $25.00 Value of MANUFACTURED GOODS Per Capita in 1860 Manufacturing Is Far More Common in the North – Particularly the Northeast Dollars Per Capita 0 to 5 Dollars 5 to 10 Dollars 10 to 20 Dollars 20 to 40 Dollars Over 40 Dollars Urban Population in 1860 West: A Few Urban Centers – Lots of Towns & Small Cities North: Large Urban Population % Urban South: A Few Urban Centers – Very Few Towns Under 10% 10% to 20% 20% to 50% Over 50% Number of Banks in the United States, 1860 Number of Banks per County 1 Bank 2 to 3 Banks 5 to10 Banks Over 25 Banks Foreign Born Population In 1860 Percent Foriegn Born Not Reported 0 to 2.5 2.5 to 5.0 5.0 to 10.0 10.0 to 25.0 Over 25 Percent School Attendance in 1850 Increasing School Attendance in Northwest Support for Public Education High Attendance In the North Low Attendance In the South What the Census Shows: The Beards Had it Right -There Was Revolution Going On In The U.S. The Northern [Free] States Were Experiencing a Period of Rapid Economic and Social Change Very Different From What Was Happening in The South By 1860 This Had Produced Enormous Differences Between The South And The North These Regional Socio-Economic Differences Produced Very Different Visions of Political Economy THE ARGUMENT THUS FAR: 1. The Northern [Free] States Are Experiencing a Period of Rapid Economic and Social Change North of 1860 Is Very Different From North of 1790 2. The Southern [Slave] States Have Experienced Economic Growth Without Much Social Change South of 1860 Is the Same As South of 1790 Antebellum Political Economy Major Policy Disputes Over: Land Policy Transportation & Internal Improvements Banking Education Tariff Immigration … And Then There Are The Disputes Over SLAVERY Antebellum Political Crises 1787: Slavery and the Northwest Ordinance 1819-20: The Missouri Compromise 1832-33: The Nullification Crisis in South Carolina 1845-49: Texas and the Mexican War 1850: The Compromise of 1850 1854: The Kansas-Nebraska Act 1850: The Dredd Scott Decision 1860: The Election of Abraham Lincoln Why Was Slavery Such A Sensitive Issue? Slavery Historians Before 1960 Argued Slavery Was NOT Profitable In Fact, Slave Labor In The South Was Very Profitable Southern Slaveholders Not Only Made Money Selling Cotton -- They Sold Slaves! The Value of the Stock of Slaves in the United States, 1805-1860 3,500 3,000 Millions of Dollars 2,500 The Increased Value Of Slaves Capital Gains 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 Source: Roger Ransom and Richard Sutch (1988: Table 3) 1850 1860 By 1860 the Value Of Slaves in the Cotton States was One Half The Value of ALL Investments! The Slave Power SLAVERY Dominated Every aspect of Southern Life By 1860 the Cotton Economy had pushed Westward to the Mississippi River As Southerners Moved West … Their Slaves Moved With Them The Slave Power Reported Wealth Per Family in 1860 Reported Wealth 0 to $1,000 $1,000 to $2,000 $2,000 to $5,000 Over $5,000 Competition for Land: TWO PATHS WEST Northerners Move West to Set up Family Farms That Produce Foodstuffs For the Eastern Markets Southerners Move West to Set up Slave Plantations That Produce Cotton So Long as There is Land Available – This Pattern Works Conflicting Visions By 1860 the Northern “Vision” Is Winning Demographic Balance favors the North 20 Million to 11 Million People North and West Account for 189 of 294 Votes In the Electoral College Economic Power favors the North because of Industrialization If Lincoln Wins The 1860 Presidential Election The South Should Secede ! LINCOLN EASILY WINS THE 1860 ELECTION Southern Options 1. Submit to Political Domination by the North Accept the Republican Economic Program 2. Leave the Union Even If They Have to Fight a War It’s a No-Brainer … THE BARBARIANS ARE AT THE GATES! THE SOUTH MUST DEFEND ITS HONOR! And, Of Course, Its Investment in SLAVES! A NAGGING QUESTION REMAINS: Why Did the North Choose to Fight? Why Not Let the South Secede? Because That Would Throw Away The Political Gains They Had Struggled for in the 1850s The SLAVE POWER Would Survive in The Confederacy The Problem of Slavery Would Remain Unsolved TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE NORTH FOUGHT “To Preserve the Union” Is to Ask the Counterfactual Question: “What if the South had Won the War?” Why Consider A Counterfactual Outcome? Because It Mattered Who Won This War A Southern Victory Means: A Slave Republic In North America Political Realignment in Western World Lincoln On The Problem Of Settling Disputes Between The USA And An Independent CSA: A husband and wife may be divorced, and go out of the presence and beyond the reach of each other; but the different parts of our country cannot do this. … Can aliens make treaties easier than friends make laws? Can treaties be more faithfully enforced between aliens than laws can among among friends? Could the South Have Won The War? Two Scenarios for A Southern Victory: 1. A Quick War: Victories at Antietam and/or Gettysburg Intervention From Europe Possible – But Not Very Likely 2. Wear the North Down: Hold the line in the West Create A Stalemate By 1864 Lincoln Loses The 1864 Election Intervention From Europe Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63 Missouri Virginia River Campaigns Spring 1862 Kentucky Tennessee North Carolina Arkansas Shiloh Vicksburg Campaign Summer 1863 Alabama Mississippi South Carolina Georgia Union Victories Louisiana Vicksburg Union Naval Operations Texas Florida New Orleans Confederate Victories Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63 Confederate Invasion Fall 1862 Missouri Perryville Virginia Kentucky Tennessee North Carolina Murfreesboro Arkansas Chattanooga Shiloh Alabama Mississippi Louisiana Chickamauga Chattanooga Campaign Fall 1863 South Carolina Georgia Union Victories Vicksburg Union Naval Operations Texas Florida New Orleans Confederate Victories Major Offensives of the War, 1862-63 Lee’s Invasions 1862/1863 Gettysburg Antietam Second Manassas Missouri Perryville Union Invasions 1862/1863 Fredricksburg Chancellorsville Virginia Peninsula Campaign Spring 1862 Kentucky Tennessee North Carolina Murfreesboro Arkansas Chattanooga Shiloh Alabama Mississippi Chickamauga South Carolina Georgia Union Victories Louisiana Vicksburg Union Naval Operations Texas Florida New Orleans Confederate Victories Confederate Hopes for Winning the War? Gettysburg Antietam Second Manassas Fredricksburg 3. Avoid the Missouri Perryville Chancellorsville Disasters at Antietam & Gettysburg Virginia Kentucky Tennessee North Carolina Murfreesboro Arkansas Shiloh 2. Hold the Chattanooga Line at Chattanooga South Chickamauga Carolina 1. Stop the Union Advance At Shiloh Alabama Mississippi Georgia Union Victories Louisiana Vicksburg Union Naval Operations Texas Florida New Orleans Confederate Victories 3 Richmond Actual Union Advance by the End of 1862 Nashville Memphis 2 Chattanooga Shiloh Atlanta Counterfactual Limit to Union Advances In 1862 Counterfactual Union Advances In 1863 1 Vicksburg New Orleans The United States of America and the Confederate States of America; 1866 United States of America ? Confederate States of America The Dis-United States; Circa 1865 - 1876 New England Federation Pacific States of America United States of America USA Unorganized Territories CSA Unorganized Territories Atlantic Federation Western Federation Confederate States of Americac A “Recipe” for Counterfactual History Two Parts Historical Reality One Part Imagination One Part Common Sense Mix Ingredients and Pour Into a Historical Mold Serve With A Healthy Dose of Skepticism Bon Appetit! WHAT IF? The Historian’s Secret Question