Transcript Chapter 3

Chapter 3
Levels of Analysis
And
Foreign Policy
Individual-Level Analysis
• Begins with view that the root it is people who
make policy
• Involves understanding the human-decision
marking process (psychology)
• Groupthink, Individual decisions, etc.
• Political Science and Psychology and Sociology
The Human Condition
• How do humans affect policy?
1. Cognitive decision making: making decisions
within the constraints of bounded rationality,
first level of individual-level analysis
2. External boundaries (missing data, incorrect
data) may affect decisions
3. Internal boundaries (limited physical and
mental capabilities) also play a role
Decision Making
• Seek Cognitive Consistency
• Wishful Thinking—We will succeed (regardless
of improbability)
• Heuristic Devices – a range of psychological
strategies that allow people to simplify
complex decisions. Examples: stereotypes,
analolgies
Decision Making
Emotional Factors
• Leaders are human too
Biological Factors
• Ethology/Animal Instincts
• Socialization
• Intellect
Decision Making
Gender
• Social construct developed by socialization
process
• Gender opinion gap
Organizational Behavior
• Second approach to individual-level analysis
• People act differently depending on different
settings
• Roles based on self-expectations and external
expectations
• Groupthink
Leaders and Idiosyncratic Analysis
• Third approach to individual
• Idiosyncratic Analysis:– level analysis; study of
humans as individuals and how each leader’s
personal (idiosyncratic) characteristics help
shape his or her decisions
• How do personal traits affect decisions?
Leaders
1. Personality
• Orientations toward self and others
• Active-Passive and Positive- Negative Scale
(Active-Negative worst—example, Nixon)
2. Physical and Mental Health
3. Personality and Ambition
4. Political History
5. Personal Experience
Rational & Irrational Factors
• Decisions are usually a mix of rational and
irrational factors
• Poliheuristic Theory: Considers decision
making to be a two stage process
1. During 1st stage, leaders use shortcuts to
eliminate policy options, usually for irrational
personal reasons
2. 2nd stage a more analytic process
State-Level Analysis
• Emphasizes the characteristics of states and
how they make foreign policy choices and
implement them
1. Government Structure
2. Interest Groups
3. Leaders
4. Political Forces
Types of Governments
• Type of government affects policy decision
(authoritarian, democratic, etc)
• Crisis vs. Noncrisis situation (rally cry)
Type of Policy
• Type of policy can vary depending on the issue
area
• Intermestic Policy: Foreign policy that has an
immediate and direct domestic impact
• Pure foreign policy: issues that have little to
no obvious impact on citizens
Political Culture
• Concept that refers to a society’s general,
long-held, and fundamental practices and
attitudes. These are based on a country’s
historical experiences and on the values
(norms) of its citizens. These attitudes are
often an important part of how policy is made.
Who makes Foreign Policy?
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Political executives
Bureaucracies
Legislative bodies
Political Opponents
Interest Groups
The Citizens
System-Level Analysis
• All systems have identifiable characteristics
1. How Authority is Organized
2. Scope and Level of Interaction among actors
in the system
Organization of Authority
• Vertical Authority Structure: Subordinate
unites are substantially regulated by higher
levels of authority
• Horizontal Authority Structure: Few , if any,
higher authorities in such systems; powers
fragmented
World stage is mostly horizontal
Organization of Authority
• State-centric system: anarchic, no overarching
authority
• Anarchic nature greatly influences policy
• Range, frequency and intensity of interactions
between nations affect decisions
Power Relationships
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Reality of the system
Power Poles
Unipolar system
Power and Situation
Economic Realities
• Shape policy
• Natural Resource Production
• Consumption pattersn
Norms
• Nuking not acceptable
• Diversity = differences