Transcript The Political Psychology of elections

The Political Psychology of
elections
Theories and methods for survey research
Sharon Coen, PhD
University of Salford, Greater Manchester
3rd INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL IN
POLITICAL COMMUNICATION AND ELECTORAL
BEHAVIOUR
19 July, 2012
Aims:
• Critically evaluate the contributions
psychology can give to explaining voters’
behaviour
• Critically evaluate whether and how to
include measures of psychological
constructs in surveys
• Apply to survey design (and data analysis)
Overview - 1
• What is political psychology?
• Political Psychological take on elections
– Homo economicus and Homo psichologicus
– Cognitive factors
– Motivational and ideological factors, values
– Psychosocial factors
Overview - 2
• Measuring factors influencing voting
choice in survey research
– Macro-distant factors
– Macro-proximal factors
– Micro-distant factors
– Micro-proximal factors
Overview – 3 (optional)
• Analysing survey data
• Evaluating scales: validity ad reliability
– Factor analysis and Alpha
• Predicting intention to vote (or actual vote)
– Logistic regression, Path Analysis and
Hierarchical Linear Modeling
Exercise 1
• In small groups, please identify some key
factors you already know (or think might)
play an important role in voters’ choices
MACRO
POLITICAL SYSTEM
STRUCTURE OF COMPETITION
-Party system
-Electoral laws
-Political-social-territorial
cleavages
-Economical climate
-Salient political themes
-Leader’s image
DISTANT
VOTE
SOCIAL STRUCTURE,
POITICAL ORIENTATIONS
AND VALUES
-Social status
-Ideology
-Political alignment
-Socio political values
PROXIMAL
DECISION IN THE
ELECTORAL CONTEXT
-Cognitive factors
-Affective factors
-Motivational factors
-Psychosocial factors
MICRO
Source: Catellani, 2011
(based on Rokkan, 1982)
MACRO
POLITICAL SYSTEM
STRUCTURE OF COMPETITION
-Party system
-Electoral laws
-Political-social-territorial
cleavages
-Economical climate
-Salient political themes
-Leader’s image
DISTANT
VOTE
SOCIAL STRUCTURE, POITICAL
ORIENTATIONS AND VALUES
PROXIMAL
DECISION IN THE ELECTORAL
CONTEXT
-Social status
-Ideology
-Political alignment
-Socio political values
-Cognitive factors
-Affective factors
-Motivational factors
-Psychosocial factors
MICRO
Source: Catellani, 2011
Political Psychology
Political psychology is an
interdisciplinary academic field
dedicated to understanding how
individuals (e.g. citizens, journalists,
politicians, militants) interact with the
political reality through the use of
psychological theories.
see Sears (1987) for overview of key
areas of interest
Political Psychology
of voting behaviour
Homo economicus vs Homo psichologicus
Cognitive factors influencing
vote
• Prospect theory (Tversky and Kanheman,
1981) and Framing [Prof. Iyengar’s lecture]
• Salient themes [Prof. Pfetsch’s lecture]
• Heuristic thinking and biased evaluation of
parties and candidates
Prospect theory
Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian
disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to
combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific
estimate of the consequences of the programs are as follows:
Problem 1 [N = 152]
If Program A is adopted, 200 people
will be saved. [72 percent]
Problem 2 [N = 155]:
If Program C is adopted 400 people
will die. [22 percent]
If Program B is adopted, there is 1/3
probability that 600 people will be
saved, and 2/3 probability that no
people will be saved. [28 percent]
If Program D is adopted there is 1/3
probability that nobody will die, and
2/3 probability that 600 people will
die. [78 percent]
Pattern of risk aversion in choices involving gains and risk seeking in
choices involving losses
Evaluation of candidates
• Judgements of morality and leadership particularly
important (e.g. Cislak and Wojcizke, 2006, 2008)
• Although extraversion and sociability play also a
role (see Mazzoleni and Sfardini, 2009) [Lecture by
Prof. Brants]
• Stereotypical attributes: appearance (Todorov’s
work), Gender (Lammers, Gordjin & Otten, 2009),
demographics (e.g. Age, Ethnicity, Local origin,
Catellani, 2011)
Affect and voting behaviour
• Mood: positive mood favours heuristic
processing (e.g. Bagozzi, Gopinath & Nyer,
1999) [Prof. Moy & Prof. Brandts]
• Emotions: emotions towards candidates (see
e.g. Redlawsk, 2006; Neuman, Marcus,
Crigler & MacKuen, 2007) and parties (Mari
and Rosema, in press) significant predictors
of voters’ choice [Prof. Moy]
• Group-based emotions Smith (1993, 1999)?
Motivational factors affecting voting
• Relational motives: the desire to affiliate and establish
interpersonal relationships; a need for personal or social
identification, solidarity with others, and shared reality
• Epistemic motives: the drive to reduce uncertainty, complexity, or
ambiguity; cognitive preference for certainty, structure, order,
and/or closure
• Existential motives: the drive to manage threatening
circumstances; a personal search for security, self-esteem, and
meaning in life
• System justification: motivation to defend, bolster, and justify the
status quo; tendency to view current social arrangements as fair,
legitimate, and desirable
Jost, Federico and Napier (2009)
see also Manzi, Vignoles , Regalia (2006) for identity motives
Ideologies
• Coherent set of attitudes and values shared by
members of a social group which underlie and
motivate the actions of its members
De Witte, 2004
• Traditionally: Liberal and Conservative
Underlying orientations:
• Social Dominance orientation (Pratto et al, 1994)
• Right-Wing Authoritarianism (Altemeyer, 1996)
• Motivational structures and neurophysiological
correlates (Jost and Amodio, 2011)
Values
• Values are hierarchically organised
motivational beliefs which constitute abstract
goals and guide the selection or evaluation of
actions, policies, people, and events. That is,
values serve as standards or criteria
(Schwartz, 2005)
• Strong predictors of political orientation
(Thoristottir et al, 2007) and vote (Caprara et
al. 2006)
Value orientation and voting
Caprara et al, 2006
Security, power,
conformity,
and tradition
Universalism
R2 = .16
Self efficacy
• Internal (I am competent when it comes to
politics)
• External (The system is responsive to
attempts to influence it)
E.g. Finkel, 1985
• Collective self efficacy (We can make a
difference, e.g. Yeich and Levine,1994)
Psychosocial factors influencing
vote
Social Identity Theory (SIT, Tajfel, 1981)
• Social group membership and
identification
• Self Stereotyping and Identity Salience
• Stereotyping of candidates (McDermott,
1998)
Relative importance of factors
1
0.9
Attitudes towards
political themes
Evaluation of the
economy
Candidates'
personalities
Political Anchors
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Values
0.2
Sociodemographics
0.1
0
Decisi
Indecisi
ITANES, 2006 in
Catellani, 2011
Exercise 2
• In groups, identify one quadrant of the model
proposed earlier (Catellani, 2011 based on
Rokkan,1982) and propose measures for at least
three constructs (15’)
• Compare and evaluate measures among groups
looking at the same quadrant, selecting one set of
measures for inclusion (15’)
• Pass the resulting instrument to a different group
who did not choose the same quadrant (10’)
Evaluating scales: validity ad
reliability
• Factor analysis
Helps identifying underlying factors
measured by a set of items
• Reliability coefficient (Alpha)
Provides an indication of the internal
consistency of a scale
Predicting intention to vote
(or actual vote)
• Logistic regression
Useful to explore the direct influence that one (or
more) predictor/s has/have on the variable of interest
• Path Analysis
Useful to establish patterns of relationships between
predictors of the variables of interest
• Hierarchical Linear Modeling
Useful to explore patterns of relationships between
predictors, when these are at different – and
hierarchically organised - levels
Summary and Conclusion
• Voting behaviour is a complex
phenomenon influenced by a series of
factors
• Individuals do not necessarily base their
decisions on objective and stable
judgements
• Psychology in general, and political
psychology in particular offers useful
insights
Keep in touch
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E-mail s.coen[at]salford.ac.uk
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