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American Meteorological Society – Oregon Chapter Global Warming: Climate Orthodoxy Perpetuates a Hoax January 25, 2012 Gordon J. Fulks, PhD Physics, University of Chicago Contact: [email protected] 2005 Nobel Prize in Medicine BARRY MARSHALL ROBIN WARREN “Against prevailing dogmas, you discovered that one of the most common and important diseases of mankind, peptic ulcer disease, is caused by a bacterial infection of the stomach.” – Nobel presentation speech Where is the evidence? There is no satisfactory logic and evidence linking human emissions of carbon dioxide with a significant warming of our climate. NONE ! Cosmic Rays and the Cloud Mystery Henrik Svensmark, PhD Director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research Danish Space Research Institute (DSRI) "During the last 100 years cosmic rays became scarcer because unusually vigorous action by the Sun batted away many of them. Fewer cosmic rays meant fewer clouds—and a warmer world." Solar Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays Jupiter with 'Red Spot' (NASA / JPL) Temperature in Central Greenland from 1400 AD (NOAA Paleoclimatology: Alley, RB 2000) Modern Warm Period began about 1830 Temperature in Central Greenland from 800 AD Modern Warm Period peaked below Medieval Temperature in Central Greenland from 3000 BC Minoan Roman Medieval Modern Modern Warm Period peaked below Medieval, Roman, Minoan Temperature in Central Greenland from 9000 BC Modern Human Civilization developed during this Holocene Climate Optimum Temperature in Central Greenland from 11,000 BC Modern Holocene Climate Optimum What is this? Temperature in Central Greenland from 50,000 BP Ice Age Modern Holocene Climate Optimum Temperature at Vostok, Antarctica from 450,000 BP Note Regular Pattern of Ice Ages Holocen e Ice Age Ice Age Ice Age Ice Age What are the important issues? Catastrophe and the survival of man and the planet? A profound ignorance of science and how it works? Was there a 0.5 to 1.0 C warming over the 20th century? Is carbon dioxide a greenhouse gas? What warming is expected for a doubling of CO2? Warming since 1977 and no warming since 1998? Are we qualified to talk about Global Warming? Do we work for the oil companies? Corrupting the evidence The Gold Standard for Global Temperature The 'Urban Heat Island' effect is real Temperature Trends at 107 Stations in California from 1909 to 1994 Stratified by 1990 population of the county (A) Large Counties: More than 1 million people Average 29 stations (B) Midsized Counties: 100,000 to 1 million people Average 51 stations (C) Small Counties: Less than 100,000 people Average 27 stations DATA INTEGRITY ISSUE USHCN Stations Location, Location, Location! DATA INTEGRITY ISSUE GISS Processing of Raw Temperature data turns cooling into warming! DATA INTEGRITY ISSUE Media claim: “New studies indicate that temperatures in recent decades are higher than at any time in the past 1000 years……with the 1990’s as the warmest decade and 1998 as the warmest year” The Wegman Report cited serious errors by Michael Mann, but the UN IPCC continues to use it The Infamous 'Hockey Stick' Graph from Michael Mann (MANN-made Global Warming) Discredited by Wegman Report to National Academy of Scie Corrected version of the Infamous Hockey Stick (from McKitrick and McIntyre) Phil Mote's Infamous 'Shrinking' NW Snow Pack A case of not showing you all the data graph from Mote, Lower Graph is complete record Data Integrity Issue Upper Worldwide Record High Temperatures were set long ago Paris, France was hotter in the 1750's and 1830's than it is today Prediction versus Reality: Missing Ocean Heat Man-made Global Warming hypothesis FAILS Recent Sea Level Rise with leveling off in 2006 and DECLINE for last two years as Pacific COOLS Satellite Altimetry shows no sea level trend until “Personal Calibrations” applied to match models Sea Level trend based on observational facts (blue) versus IPCC (purple) and Satellite (orange and green) Recent measurements of carbon dioxide The IPCC version of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide The REAL history of atmospheric CO2 Regular heartbeat of Global Sea Ice (Steady for 30 years, now slightly below normal) The Arctic Ocean is largely frozen today View from the North Pole Note extensive Northern Hemisphere snow cover The IPCC's understanding of Climate was better years ago Prediction versus Reality: Missing Hot Spot Greenhouse Computer Models Fail UN Computer Simulations of Climate are Computer Games USELESS in Predicting the Future Professor of Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Gerhard Gerlich: “To derive climate catastrophes from these computer games and to scare Mankind to death is a crime.” “It cannot be overemphasized that even if the [fluid] equations are simplified considerably, one cannot determine numerical solutions, even for small space regions and even for small time intervals. This situation will not change in the next 1000 years regardless of progress made in computer hardware. As the extremely simplified one-fluid equations are unsolvable, the many-fluid equations would be more unsolvable, the equations that include the averaged equations describing the turbulence would be yet more unsolvable, if “unsolvable" had a comparative.” “Hence, the computer simulations of global climatology are not based on physical laws.” Sunspots are Manifestations of Solar Magnetic Activity Sunspot data from 1611 with forecast to 2080 AARI surface air temperature above 70N (From 1900 to 2006 with prediction to 2065) The Threat is Global Cooling Toward another 'Little Ice Age' THIS CENTURY Into a 90,000 year 'Big Ice Age' THIS MILLENNIUM Michael Crichton on Propaganda “The greatest challenge facing mankind is the challenge of distinguishing reality from fantasy, truth from propaganda. Perceiving the truth has always been a challenge to mankind, but in the information age (or as I think of it, the disinformation age) it takes on a special urgency and importance” Michael Crichton Author and MD Harvard University What do the Best and the Brightest say about Global Warming? Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor of Meteorology Richard Lindzen Is widely recognized as the greatest meteorologist alive today: “The need to courageously resist hysteria is clear.” Was Einstein talking about Global Warming? “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” Albert Einstein.