Transcript Introduction to the AMDAR Programme

Introduction to the AMDAR Programme
[Based on slides from D.Lockett, OSD/WMO Secretariat, and others]
Luís Nunes
WIGOS Project Office
Outline
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AMDAR: What it is, how it works
Geographic coverage and data availability
Regional and National AMDAR Programmes
Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines
Strategy and Plans
Outline
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AMDAR: What it is, how it works
Geographic coverage and data availability
Regional and National AMDAR Programmes
Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines
Strategy and Plans
AMDAR: What it is, how it works (1)
• The operation of WIGOS, including the GOS, is supporting:
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Numerical Weather Prediction,
Public Weather Services,
Disaster Risk Reduction,
Climate Services
Aeronautical Meteorology
• The Aircraft-based
Observing System (AOS)
is a critical component
of WIGOS
AMDAR: What it is, how it works (2)
AMDAR = Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay
AMDAR: What it is, how it works (4)
Data is derived from vertical profiles and en-route reports of
meteorological parameters, according to meteorological specification.
AMDAR: What it is, how it works (3)
Primary variables included in AMDAR reports :
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Location [0.1 deg Latitude/Longitude] and Date/Time [Second],
Pressure Altitude [10 ft],
Temperature [0.1 C],
Wind Direction [Degree] and Wind speed [Knot],
Mixing Ratio (for humidity) [0.16 g/kg] (when available); and
Turbulence (index, or Eddy Dissipation Rate or DEVG)
AMDAR is the core component of the Aircraft-based Observing System:
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~95% of all AOS data (supplemented by ICAO AIREPs & ADS)
Over 650,000 observations per day
40 participating airlines
Over 4000 participating aircraft
Data quality is equivalent to radiosonde
Outline
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AMDAR: What it is, how it works
Geographic coverage and data availability
Regional and National AMDAR Programmes
Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines
Strategy and Plans
AMDAR Current Global Coverage
AMDAR en-route and profiles coverage
• Coverage
very good
over USA &
Western
Europe;
• Coverage
good over
parts of
Asia and
Australasia;
• Coverage is
poor
elsewhere.
Global Radiosonde Coverage
AMDAR data availability
Status of Global ABO density
Outline
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AMDAR: What it is, how it works
Geographic coverage and data availability
Regional and National AMDAR Programmes
Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines
Strategy and Plans
Programme Number
Regional and
National
AMDAR
Programmes
Australia
4
Canada
2
China
2
E-AMDAR
14
Hong Kong
China
2
Japan
2
Mexico
New
Zealand
1
Korea
2
South
Africa
1
USA
1
9
Airlines
Air Vanuatu
JetConnect (Qantas)
Qantas Airways
SkyTraders
Air Canada Jazz
NAV Canada
China Southern Airlines
Shandong Airlines
Air France
Austrian Airways
Blue1
British Airways
EasyJet Airline
Finnair
KLM
Lufthansa Cargo
Lufthansa CityLine
Lufthansa Germanwings
Lufthansa Passage
Novair Scandinavia
Scandinavian Airlines
Thomas Cook
Cathay Pacific
Dragon Airlines
Air Nippon Airways
Japan Airlines
Aeromexico
Air New Zealand
Asiana Airlines
Korean Air
South African Airways
Alaska Airlines
American Airlines
Continental
Delta Air Lines
Federal Express
Northwest Airlines
Southwest Airlines
United Airlines
United Parcel Service (UPS)
Outline
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AMDAR: What it is, how it works
Geographic coverage and data availability
Regional and National AMDAR Programmes
Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines
Strategy and Plans
Impact of AMDAR on Weather Prediction
Extremely useful for input to forecast applications:
• Surface and upper air forecasts
of wind and temperature;
• Thunderstorm genesis,
location and severity;
• Wind shear location and
intensity;
• Detection of zero-degree
level (freezing rain);
• Low cloud formation,
location and duration;
• Fog formation, location
and duration;
• Turbulence location
and intensity;
• Jetstream location
and intensity
Impact of AMDAR on Weather Prediction
Even with more limited coverage, AMDAR are behind only
satellite vertical sounders and radiosondes for impact on
forecast error reduction (around 10%).
 Satellites provide large data volume and global coverage but
not good accuracy.
 Radiosondes provide good accuracy but poorer horizontal
and temporal coverage.
AMDAR provides both better accuracy (than satellites) and
higher temporal coverage (than radiosondes).
 Impact of AMDAR with improved horizontal coverage and
water vapour measurement will be even greater.
AMDAR Data & Verification of Forecast Products
Radiosonde data usually available once or twice per day
AMDAR data frequently available – often one or more
vertical profile per hour.
AMDAR data offer the opportunity to the forecaster of
frequent updating or verification of the NWP and derived
products.
The resulting enhancement to forecast skill is derived from
the high frequency of AMDAR data.
Efficiency of AMDAR
Efficiency of AMDAR
Results of study by Met Office on observing system
efficiencies:
• When taking into account costs, AMDAR rate highest in terms of
efficiency.
• This result is highly significant given that the system is far from
optimal in terms of coverage and water vapour sensing
deployment.
AMDAR development and deployment will derive the
biggest improvement in forecast accuracy for the smallest
financial input
AMDAR Data in Climate Applications
• More than 4000 AMDAR aircraft provide wind and
temperatures of climate quality
• Increasing number also provide humidity observations
• Archives of high quality upper air data are essential
• These data are used for local, national and global climate
monitoring and forecast applications
• Also used for research, e.g. about climate change
• Knowledge of changes to thermal structure in the atmosphere
is essential for studies of climate change drivers, e.g. carbon
dioxide
Why Should a NMHS Develop an AMDAR
Programme?
• Source of high quality upper air data;
• Superior temporal coverage of winds and air temperatures to
radiosondes (potentially hourly vs 12-hourly);
• No sensor implementation required (except of humidity) –
AMDAR facilitated by software deployment;
• Cost of AMDAR profile can be 1/10th to 1/100th cost of
radiosonde profile.
• Unique opportunity to redesign upper air observations
networks for efficiency.
• AMDAR will provide the biggest impact on forecast
improvement for relatively very little expenditure.
Benefits for Airlines (1)
• Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the
U.S. National Airspace System (NAS).
• "A key finding, based on an analysis 2005-2006 convective
events, is that two-thirds of the weather related delay is
potentially avoidable.“
• “The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S.
economy was $41 billion for 2007.”
• Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.
• Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.
• Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10
billion to the total burden.
Benefits for Airlines (2)
• Recent South African Airways study shows benefits of AMDAR Use latest possible weather information and forecasts for:
• Pre-departure « Dynamic Fuel Planning » - determination of fuel load.
• Pre-departure Flight Planning: latest possible adjustment of flight plan
• In-flight Planning – in-flight adjustment and optimisation.
• Findings based on SAA’s 24 aircraft (A330 and A340 fleets) Financial results of using Dynamic Fuel Planning:
• Savings over a 1 year period: Between 2 and 3 million dollars.
• Cost of fuel saved through use of pre/in-flight planning: >$600,000
Outline
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AMDAR: What it is, how it works
Geographic coverage and data availability
Regional and National AMDAR Programmes
Benefits for NMHs and for Airlines
Strategy and Plans
AMDAR Plans and Strategy (1)
• WMO has completed study on AMDAR Coverage & Targeting for
Future Airline Recruitment
• 7 Data-sparse Regions for targeted development
• Potential expansion: 128 Airlines with over 2500 aircraft
• Initial high priority target airlines: 26 airlines, ~1200 aircraft
AMDAR Plans and Strategy (2)
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AMDAR Panel incorporated into WMO structure: CBS & CIMO
AMDAR Strategy and Implementation Plan for 2025
Strategy Plan was based on Global Actions from the EGOS-IP.
Strategic Core Activities for Aircraft Observing System (AOS) –
Medium Term (5yrs), Long Term (5-10yrs):
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Enhancement of AMDAR Coverage
Extension of the AMDAR System
R&D of New Aircraft Observation Technologies
Develop AOS Quality Management System (QMS)
Training and Outreach on Benefits of AMDAR Data to Aviation and
Meteorology
• Management of the ABO Programme
AMDAR Developments: Water vapour
• AMDAR would be greatly improved by addition of water
vapour measurement:
• Have sensors that meet meteorological standards.
• Have commenced implementation in the USA & Europe.
• Have demonstrated a significant positive impact on NWP and weather
services to aviation.
• It will require:
=> Integration into airframes on delivery
=> Partnerships with Aviation Industry required.
AMDAR Developments: Water vapour
Daily coverage, UPS and SWA – 135
aircraft equipped with WVSS-IIv3.
~2000 profiles/50,000 observations
of atmospheric moisture
AMDAR Developments: Africa
• WMO held 2 regional workshops in AMDAR in 2015 in Kenya
(June ) and Morocco (December)
• WMO actively working through CBS and Regional Association I
to push for AMDAR development
• Strong interest from Kenya, Ethiopia, Morocco in AMDAR
program development
• WMO seeking funding to assist develoments in Kenya and
Ethiopia
• EUMETNET assisting development of Morocco program
• ASECNA project…
AMDAR Developments: Resources & Tools
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR/resources/index_en.html
• WIGOS Technical Reports on benefits, requirements for program development, data
impacts, etc.
• Manual & guides
• Business case documents for partners
• Specification for AMDAR Onboard Software
Summary
• Based on 2008 figures: Avoidable delays caused by weather cost the
USA airline industry $9 billion per annum.
• The AMDAR programme contributes to >10% reduction in NWP
forecast errors– 2nd only to satellite obs in impact and much cheaper
• Yet, AMDAR data coverage is currently at much less than 50% of what
is potentially achievable.
• Planned expansion of water vapour network (WVSS, TAMDAR) is
expected to increase the impact considerably – particularly over 6 to
24 hr forecast period.
• Further expansion of turbulence reporting for Global coverage –
leading to improved and enhanced turbulence forecast products.
• AMDAR offers an opportunity to efficiently and economically
improve upper-air coverage in RA I.
Merci
Thank you
[email protected]
www.wmo.int/wigos