Transcript National Weather Service

Highlights of Monday's Aviation
Workshop: Mapping the Way Ahead
Joe Kunches
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC
Boulder, Colorado
2008 Space Weather Workshop
April 29
Boulder
Session Overview
•
High Points
– Programmatics
– Radiation and Forecast Challenges
– Airlines (Polar routes are hot!, Cross Polar
Working Group, AMS Policy Study, Education)
– Panels
– Airline operations issues
– New services from modelers, SWPC, and
Commercial Interests
Programmatics
•
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Initiative
•
Joint Planning and Development Office
(JPDO) NextGen
•
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
•
Alaska Region Collaboration Team
(ARCTic)
World Meteorological
Organization
•
Formal recognition of
space weather
•
Uses existing ISES
relationships
•
Dovetails to WMO
Commission for
Aeronautical
Meteorology (CAeM)
•
On Executive Council
agenda for June 2008
Significance of WMO Invitation
•
Provides overarching legitimacy of space
weather activities
•
For aviation that links to:
– International Civil Aviation Organization (183
States)
– International Air Transport Association (240
Airlines)
– FAA
» Cross Polar Working Group
Space Weather
Radiation Hazards
Aviation Workshop
By
Ron Zwickl
NOAA/SWPC
April 28, 2008
FRA to DFW flight
Two major radiation
risks in exploratory
missions
• SPE: sporadic, high
dose. Shielding
generally effective.
Acute (deterministic)
effects
• GCR: chronic, low
dose. Shielding
poorly effective.
Late (stochastic)
effects
Dr. Durante 4th European SWW
Bruxelles, Belgium, Nov 9, 2007
100000
CNS syndrome
Skin desquamation
GI syndrome
10000
Fibrosis
Haematopoietic syndrome
1000
100
10
Vomiting
Nausea
Lymphopenia
Azoospermia
Annual dose in Kerala (India)
Annual dose limit for
radiation workers
CT abdomen/pelvis
Annual dose on Earth
1
0.1
Daily dose in LEO
Pelvis X-ray film
Annual cosmic rays at sea leve
Chest X-ray film
Aviation Workshop
Boulder, Colorado, April 28 2008
Radiation storm prediction – the challenges facing forecasters
Radiation Storms
• Proton Event Statistics
• Forecasting Challenges (and Successes!)
>10 MeV Radiation Storm Distribution - Solar Cycle 23
25
120
20
100
15
80
60
10
40
5
20
0
# of >10 MeV Radiation Storms
Sunspot Number
140
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
07
06
05
04
03
02
01
00
99
98
97
96
• Radiation storms are infrequent during the solar minimum years but large
storms can occur during these minimum years
The Large >100 MeV Events (in pfu)
14 Jul 2000
410
28 Oct 2003
08 Nov 2000
347
29 Oct 2003
15 Apr 2001
146
20 Jan 2005
04 Nov 2001
253
186
110
652
CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-Group:
Defining Aviation Industry User Requirements
Mike Stills
Captain Bryn Jones
Joe Kunches
United Airlines
SolarMetrics Limited, UK
Space Weather Services Branch
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA
Cross Polar Trans East ATM Providers’ Working Group
AA System Operations Control Centre
Dallas, Texas
April 1–3, 2008
Content
• Polar Route Popularity - A Great Place to Go!!
• Cross Polar Working Group (CPWG) Activities
• AMS and SolarMetrics Aviation Policy Study – Implementation
• Education Needs?
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop
Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008
From the Airlines: What’s New
Polar Route Popularity – Some Statistics
Crosspolar Traffic Levels
from 2000 through 2007
8000
6930
number of movements
7000
6000
5308
5000
3731
4000
3000
2053
2000
1000
368
840
776
884
2001
2002
2003
0
2000
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop
Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008
From the Airlines: What’s New
2004
2005
2006
2007
Aviation User Requirements – work plan
• Defining user requirements
• Define & prioritise the impacts/hazards
• Discuss operational decision-processes for each hazard
• Draught Service/Product Wish Lists (Forecasting,
Nowcasting, Warnings, Alerts, etc)
• Communicating Space Weather information
• Delivery methods
• Formatting and integration with Terrestrial Weather Products
(NextGen, SESAR)
• Product Training
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop
Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008
From the Airlines: What’s New
Airline Operations Panel
•
Bryn Jones
(moderator),
Mike Holland,
Henning
Luebbe, Joel
Morin, Mike
Stills
Aviation User Requirements
• Current Polar-Ops route scenario chosen
• NextGen (SESAR) consideration
• Impact based – i.e., user viewpoint, not science focused
• HF Comms
• Radiation (Avionics, Humans)
• GPS / Navigation
Aviation Workshop, NOAA SWPC Space Weather Workshop
Boulder, Colorado. April 28, 2008
From the Airlines: What’s New
Operations Key Points
•
In flight measurements necessary to quantify
radiation
•
•
•
Do take action based on forecasts
•
•
Comm/Nav highest priorities
Pilot reports helpful for validation of models
Paradox: New technologies allow
efficiencies but vulnerable to SpWx
“Don’t get too hung upon Solar Max – there
are plenty of disruptions now!”
New Services Panel
•
Kent
Tobiska
(moderator),
Herb Sauer,
Steve Hill,
Chris
Mertens
New Services Key Points
•
NAIRAS funded, work to get global
radiation field (Mertens)
•
Geographic and day/night differences in
HF/VHF effects (Sauer)
•
SWPC reorg to get more products and
services – D-Region Test Product soon
(Hill)
NAIRAS Integrated System Solution
Earth-Sun System &
Planetary Models
Predictions/
Nowcast/Forecast
Radiation Dose Rates:
AIR,HZETRN,MESTRN
Near-Earth/Space Environment:
Badhwar/ONeill-GCR,CMIT,
LFM,SEP-trajectory,IGRF+
T96 magnetic field
Data
• Nowcast
• Predictions
• Forecasts
• Model products
• Computational
Techniques
• Visualizations
• Interoperability
standards
Earth-Sun Observations
Near-Earth+Space Environment:
NASA/ACE/HEAO-3
NOAA/GOES
• Observations
• Geophysical
parameters
Assimilated Atmospheric:
Atmospheric Depth (METO)
Ground-based:
Neutron Count Monitors
Decision Support Tools
Value & Benefits
NAIRAS Assessment:
Real-time, global, atmospheric
Ionizing radiation dose rates
Real-time monitor of
biologically harmful
atmospheric radiation
Track and archive radiation
exposure levels at
commercial airline
altitudes
Enter flight path data
to track/archive individual
crewmember radiation
exposure levels
Provide accumulated
radiation exposure levels
from “phantom” pilots
with typical flight
schedules and
representative flight paths
Provide FAA/aviation
industry valuable data
for developing policies
and procedure for
modifying aircrew travel
schedules to limit
radiation exposures
Provide critical data for
airline policy/management
decisions for flight rerouting
during solar storm events
Provide health sector (e.g.,
NIOSH) with data to
improve policies for
radiation exposure limits
Observations
ROSES 2005 - A.24
South Polar Presentation
June 21, 2000 00:00 UT
Kp= 3
Scale indicates frequency at which the absorption reaches 10dB indicating
severe degradation to complete blackout
The Plan
• Summer 2008 – Deploy Release 2 as an NWS Enhanced
Product
• Fall ‘08 through Spring ’09 – Test period to collect
customer input and suggestions
• Summer ’09 – Deploy as an operational NWS product, or
incorporate user suggested changes and deploy for
reevaluation
Contact Information:
Dr. Steven M Hill
Development and Transition Section Lead
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305
303-497-3283
[email protected]
23
New Product Announcement
•
Space Environment Technologies, IPS
MeteoStar, Space Environment Corporation, and
Air Force Research Laboratory, with assistance
from NASA, to unveil a new product for
commercial aviation tomorrow at this meeting.
Watch for it!
parting shot …
Kanzelhoehe Solar Observatory, Austria
December 1, 2000