Transcript Biesecker

Space Weather Services in
Support of Global Air Navigation –
Role of the Neutron Monitor
Doug Biesecker
Bob Rutledge
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado
October 24th-25th, 2015
Neutron Monitor Community Workshop – Honolulu, HI
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Outline
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Sector Changes and Drivers
Government Mandates
Aviation Exposures
Modeling / Input Data Needs
Air Force Weather Agency
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Sector Changes and Drivers
• Polar route usage has become a cornerstone of international aviation over
the last decade plus
• The High Frequency (HF) impacts from Solar Flares and Solar Radiation
Storms are fairly repeatable and reasonably well understood
• To work around the communication impacts Iridium use is coming/in use by
some (e.g. approved by the FAA for oceanic flight operations in July 2011)
• The high latitude radiation exposure issue hasn’t been well-addressed to
date by all – both an issue of actual risk and perceived risk… Information is
needed and that is coming through ICAO
Image courtesy of Mike Stills/United Airlines
Image credit Tim Ockenden/PA
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International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
• United Nations specialized agency, created in 1944
upon the signing of the Convention on International
Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention)
• ICAO works with the Convention's 191 Signatory
States and global industry and aviation organizations
to develop international Standards and
Recommended Practices (SARPs)
• SARPS are then used by States when they develop
their legally-binding national civil aviation regulations
• Recognized the space weather threat at the 2002
Met Divisional Meeting
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Action within ICAO
ICAO MET Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO Commission
for Aeronautical Meteorology (CAeM)-XV (July, 2014)
Recommendation 2/7:
That an appropriate ICAO expert group, in close coordination with WMO, be tasked
to develop provisions for information on space weather…
a) requirements for space weather information services consistent with the draft
concept of operations for space weather information services;
b) selection criteria and associated capability for the designation of global and
regional space weather centers, including the optimum number thereof;
c) appropriate governance and cost recovery arrangements for the provision of
space weather information services on a global and regional basis;
d) considerations on the use of space weather information and the various impacts
space weather events could have on international air navigation
Inclusion of requirements in Amd. 78 (applicable Nov 2018) to
ICAO Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for International Air
Navigation and development of a Space Weather Manual
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The draft SWORM Action Plan
• Space Weather Operations, Research and Mitigation
SWORM Action Plan
• DOC, DOD, and NSF in coordination with academia,
the private sector, and international partners will support
and enhance the worldwide ground-based neutronmonitoring network to include real-time reporting of
Ground Level Events (GLEs) to operational space
weather forecasting centers.
– Measure of performance: Current monitoring network
sustained and additional monitors added as necessary to
enable model-based characterization of the radiation
environment at commercial aviation and space altitudes, and
all monitors enhanced to include real-time data transmission
to operational forecast centers.
– Timeline: Within 5 years of the publication of the action
plan.
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Peter Beck, et al. 2005
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Peter Beck, et al. 2005
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Aviation Radiation Modeling Examples
NAIRAS
PANDOCA
AVIDOS
All need higher energy information of the SEP spectrum to do it well.
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Matthias M. Meier & Daniel Matthiae 2013
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High Energy Characterization with Neutron Monitors
Allan J. Tylka & William F. Dietrich, 2009
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The Current NOAA Requirements
• NOAA Requirements are held in the Coordinated Observations
Requirements List (CORL)
• Neutrons are a priority 1 requirement
– Priority 1: Cannot meet operational mission objectives without these
data
• Neutrons are in good company
– Auroral Boundary, Solar Corona, Heliospheric Imaging et al.
– Many priority 1’s are still on the SWPC wishlist
Requirement
Threshold Spatial
/Objective Coverage
Measurement
Range
Measurement
Accuracy
Sampling Data
Interval Latency
Ground-Based
Neutrons
T
>30° N and S
every 10°
>1 to > 15 GeV
10% above
median
background
5 minutes 5 minutes
Ground-Based
Neutrons
O
>30° N and S
every 10°
>0.1 to >15
GeV
10% above
median
background
5 minutes 5 minutes
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The Air Force Picture
• Air Force Weather Agency
– High Flyer Radiation Model runs every 6 hours
• e.g. U2 flights
• Direct data feed from Thule through South
Mountain
– Stopped (when?)
– Currently get data from U. Delaware
– Can use Thule or other sites
• Not a ‘Program of Record’
– Difficult to get anything done
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NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado
www.spaceweather.gov
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