Transcript PPT - WMO
Extreme Climate and Weather Events and Requirements for Early Warning in Mongolia Dr. Damdin DAGVADORJ National Agency for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Monitoring of Mongolia Extreme Climate and Weather Events •Mongolia is a landlocked country with severe continental climate characterized by a high frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events. •Despite tremendous progress in science and technology, climate is still the custodian of all spheres of life in a territory of Mongolia, a region that is very vulnerable to natural disasters. •Due to the precariousness of climate conditions and traditional economic structure, natural disasters, specially disasters of meteorological and hydrological origin, have substantial effect upon the socio-economic conditions of the country. Extreme Climate and Weather Events • Heavy rains, snowfalls, strong winds, sandstorms, snowstorms, hail and flooding often bring substantial damages to life and property of Mongolia. • Devastating weather hazards, such as dzud and droughts, are a well-known affliction of the Mongolian nomadic herder. • Dzud is the Mongolian specific term for an extraordinarily harsh winter that deprives livestock of grazing, a specific phenomena that takes its toll in the winter-spring season as high number of livestock die of starvation. Economic losses caused by extreme events • In the two year period between 1998 and 1999, the total economic damage caused by disasters such as strong wind, blizzard, hail and thunderstorms, floods and extremely hot weather conditions was estimated as 30 billion ¥ or about 3% of GDP. • The Dzud, an extraordinarily harsh winter, struck twice in the last two cold seasons (1999/2000 and 2000/2001), costing the livestock and livelihoods of many Mongolian herders. As a result of the dzud in 1999/2000, 2.4 million livestock were killed and economic losses reached to 91.7 billion ¥ by 1 June 2000. Social costs of the dzud are difficult to estimate. The Occurrence of weather extreme and disaster events in Mongolia Year Number of extreme events Numb er of disast er events 1989 19 1990 Type of disastrous events Human loss Affected soums Storm Heavy snow and rain Thundersto rm, hail, flashflood Oth er Number of people Drought/ Dry spell Dzud 9 1 7 - 1 - 20/58 - 33 12 3 6 3 - - 18/28 - 1991 12 5 4 - 1 - 11 15/62 19 1992 13 9 1 2 5 1 16 10/23 10 1993 16 9 3 2 1 3 47 2/10 60 1994 31 18 4 12 3 - 36 -/16 20 1995 28 14 8 3 2 1 21 18/30 5 1996 31 11 4 2 5 - 25 23/50 64 1997 63 31 4 - 24 3 29 8/1 60 1998 48 20 3 3 13 1 14 2/26 4 1999 43 23 6 4 4 9 17 37/135 24 2000 56 17 6 - 10 1 24 44/204 157 2001 47 20 4 5 11 - 52 54/117 192 Criteria of weather disasters for public warning ¹ Phenomena Intensity Criteria Duration 1 Strong wind 16 m/s 3 hours 2 Snow storm Wind speed: 12 m/s, and visibility: 2000 m 3 hours 3 Sand storm 16 m/s 3 hours 4 Rain 30 mm 12 hours 5 Heavy Snowfall 5 mm 12 hours 6 Heavy rain 30 mm 3 hours 7 Hail Diameter: up to 10 mm - 8 Flood Flood level for particular river - 9 Cold rain Continues rain when temp.: +11îÑ and wind speed: 6 m/s 10 Ground frost Soil temp.: +0îÑ - 11 Fire - - 12 Warm and dry wind wind speed: 8 m/s, relative humidity: 30% 3 days 13 Pasture ice cover Pasture covered by ice after warming 7 days 14 Road ice cover Road covered by ice - 15 Extreme cold weather Air temp.: different for subregions: –50î Ñ, –35î Ñ, –40îÑ - 16 Extreme hot weather Air temp.: different for subregions: +40îÑ, +36î Ñ, +32îÑ - 17 Frost Air temp. decrease by 20îÑ within one day 12 hours 2 days Frequency of drought Distribution of stabile snow cover (Cold season) White Dzud (Cold weather, deep snow) Black Dzud (Very cold weather, no snow) Livestock losses killed by the Dzud and Drought 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 <0.9 1.0-1.9 2.0-2.9 3.0-3.9 N.of occur percent 4.0-4.9 5.0-5.9 Number of days with dust storms Number of dusty days in Mongolia and its trend by region y = -0.0646x2 + 256.47x - 254579 R2 = 0.8786 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1965 1970 west 1975 centre 1980 east 1985 south 1990 total 1995 2000 Poly. (total) 2005 Example: Dust and Snow Storms observed on 18-21 March 2002 in Mongolia The dust storm started at 10:05 on 18 March in the eastern part of the country and ended at 19:45 on 21 March. The storm covered 67% of total territory of Mongolia, in particular dust storm in 95 soums and snow storm in 141 soums. Wind speed reached to 24-40 m/s, the phenomena have continued from 30 minutes to 68 hours. Losses: died 3 people and killed 53000 animals, destroyed 83 houses, 24 communication lines and 6 power towers. The direct economic loss was 2 billiard ¥ (more than 2 million US$) Top soil of the some parts of the central regions have been blown away Satellite Images of the sand movement on 18 March Satellite Images of the sand movement on 19 March Weather and Climate Service • Users request not only every-day weather forecasts and general climatic data, but also specific information on extreme weather and climate events, as well as monthly and seasonal climate forecasts. • Mongolia Met Service issues the following weather forecasts and warnings: - Short-term (3 hours up to 2 days) weather forecasts, - Mid-term (5-7 days) weather forecasts - Long-term (monthly) weather forecasts - Climate predictions for 2-months and seasons - Warnings, - Aeronautical meteorological forecasts - User oriented forecasts and information - River and flash flood forecasts, - Others. Ways to disseminate the warnings • Public Media • Ten-day and Monthly Bulletins • Monthly Weather Forecasts • Seasonal Forecasts • User-oriented Recommendations • Siren Systems • Special Radio and TV Broadcasts • Press Conferences for the Users and Media In order to improve our climate services … • Strengthen the early warning system within the NMHS for extreme climate events and weather conditions • Upgrade of weather and climate systematic observation and monitoring system of NMHSs • Contribute to national sustainable development strategies by providing advanced climate services for the mitigation of disasters In order to improve our climate services … •Promote the international and regional technical cooperation in the field of natural disaster reduction • Promote close cooperation with various policy makers and users • Increase public awareness and educate users on the most important climate and weather disasters and their consequences. Thank you for your attention!