Transcript Reflections on information systems development 1988-2002

Chapter 15
Organizational
Techniques
Lateral thinking
Attempting to solve a problem by using non-traditional methods
in order to create and identify new concepts and ideas.
Lateral thinking is a way of attacking problems from other angles,
as opposed to the more traditional linear and logical ways.
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Lateral search - aimed at looking for as many alternatives
as possible.
Challenging assumptions – restructuring ones views and
patterns may give more insights into the problems.
Fractionation – breaking things down into their constituent
parts.
Brainstorming – generating a cross-stimulation of ideas.
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Lateral Thinking Puzzles
Two Coins
 Bill is on a raft in the ocean with several other survivors of a
shipwreck. The others are too weak, so he or Mike must
swim to a nearby island to look for help. It's almost certainly
suicidal, due to the circling sharks, but there is little else to
hope for. Mike takes the lose change from his pocket and
puts two pennies in a hat. He tells Bill that one is a 2005
penny, and the other 1975. If Bill picks the newer penny he
can stay on the raft, and Mike will risk his life. If Bill picks the
older penny, he must go. Bill has seen that both pennies
were actually dated 1975, but he doesn't want to say
anything, because Mike is a big guy. How does he win, and
get Mike to go, without exposing him as a fraud in front of
the others?
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Lateral Thinking Puzzles
The Speech
A well-known politician wrote a long speech. How did it help his career even
before he gave the speech?
The Convent
John came to visit at a convent while the superior mother was out of town.
He left before she returned, and was careful to leave nothing behind. The
nuns said nothing about his visit, so how did the superior mother figure out
that a man had been there?
Switching On Your Lateral Thinking
You are shown three switches outside a closed room. There are three lamps
inside the room. You can flip the switches on and off as much as you want
while the door remains closed, but then you must enter just once and
determine quickly which switch is connected to which lamp. How can you do
it?
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Solutions To The Lateral
Thinking Puzzles
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Two Coins: Bill reaches into the hat and takes
out either penny. He lets it slip out of his
hand and fall into the ocean. Apologizing, he
suggests that if the remaining penny in the
hat is the 1975 one, he must have drawn the
2005 penny. Mike cannot argue with the logic
unless he wants to admit to lying. Since the
others won't tolerate a liar anyhow, he makes
the swim.
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Solutions To The Lateral
Thinking Puzzles
The Speech: A true story solution: In 1912, President
Teddy Roosevelt was shot in the chest. The folded-up
manuscript of his speech was in his breast pocket, and
slowed the bullet, saving his life, and so helping his
career.
The Convent: John left a toilet seat up.
Switching On Your Lateral Thinking: Turn on the
first one on for a minute, then turn it off and turn the
second on. Enter the room and feel the two bulbs that
are off. The warm one was turned on by the first switch,
the light that is on is connected to the second, and the
other to the third.
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Brainstorming - problems
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Requirements analysis
Techniques for improved
requirements analysis –
future analysis, risk analysis
and lateral thinking
Pg.
297
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Critical success factors (CSFs)
CSFs are those factors – skills, tasks or behavior – that
can be considered critical to the continued success of an
organization. For a project, they will represent those
elements that are crucial to its success.
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These Eight Critical Sales Success Factors summarize the most
important processes to succeed in today's marketplace. They are
guidelines to assess strengths and weaknesses against the business
development processes that ensure profitable growth.
www.chally.com/enews/issue10/EightFactors.html
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Scenario planning
A scenario is simply
a description of one
possible future.
An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to
be. Plans can be made on the basis of these scenarios.
Three ways of identifying future scenario:
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Expert scenarios
 Morphological approaches
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Cross-impact approaches
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Other Approaches
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Future analysis - is a technique aimed at
predicting potential change in the environment of
the IS so that it can be designed to cope with that
change when and if it occurs.
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and
Threats Analysis (SWOT) - A SWOT Analysis is a
strategic planning tool used to evaluate the
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats
involved in a project or in a business venture or in
any other situation requiring a decision.
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SWOT
SWOTs are defined precisely as follows:
 Strengths are attributes of the organization that are
helpful to the achievement of the objective.
 Weaknesses are attributes of the organization that
are harmful to the achievement of the objective.
 Opportunities are external conditions that are
helpful to the achievement of the objective.
 Threats are external conditions that are harmful to
the achievement of the objective.
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1.
2.
3.
4.
How
How
How
How
can we
can we
can we
can we
Use each Strength?
Stop each Weakness?
Exploit each Opportunity?
Defend against each Threat?
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Case-based reasoning (CBR)
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Case-based reasoning- is the process of
solving new problems based on the
solutions of similar past problems.
An auto mechanic who fixes an engine by recalling another car that exhibited similar
symptoms is using CBR.
A lawyer who advocates a particular outcome in a trial based on legal precedents or a
judge who creates case law is using CBR.
An engineer copying working elements of nature (practicing biomimicry), is treating
nature as a database of solutions to problems.
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Case-based reasoning has been formalized for purposes of
computer reasoning as a four-step process:
1. Retrieve: Given a target problem, retrieve cases from memory that
are relevant to solving it. A case consists of a problem, its solution,
and, typically, annotations about how the solution was derived.
2. Reuse: Map the solution from the previous case to the target problem.
This may involve adapting the solution as needed to fit the new
situation.
3. Revise: Having mapped the previous solution to the target situation,
test the new solution in the real world (or a simulation) and, if
necessary, revise.
4. Retain: After the solution has been successfully adapted to the target
problem, store the resulting experience as a new case in memory.
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Risk analysis
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Risk analysis - involves identifying the most
probable threats to an organization and
analyzing the related vulnerabilities of the
organization to these threats.
Risk analysis process provides the
foundation for the entire recovery planning
effort.
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Thank
You for Your
Attention
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