Transcript Estimating Journal Value -- One Approach from Virgina Tech

Matt Harrington
Leslie O’Brien
ESTIMATING JOURNAL VALUE –
ONE APPROACH FROM VIRGINIA TECH
October 18, 2011
THE SERIALS BUDGET
Need for a quantitative tool to
analyze cost and use data for
electronic serials
2010/2011 Serials Budget
Allocations
Books
E-Journals
Databases
eBook
Map
Music Score
Microform
Newspaper
Print + Online
Computer File
Serial Print
Stream Media
Other




Databases + E-journals 90%
E-journals up 9% from 07/08
Print budget halved in 3 years
2010 online serials usage:
2,106,913
0%
0%
0% 2% 0% 0%
0%
5% 3%
0%
0%
20%
70%
ELECTRONIC SERIALS
4224 Subs (4060 Titles):
 70% of e-journal budget
Cost/Sub
$600.00
$590.00
(based on 08/09 exp)
$580.00

$570.00
50% total e-journal usage
(based on 2009 JR1 reports)
$560.00

18% of total e-journal titles
(based on 08/09 ARL stats)
$550.00

$540.00
$530.00
2008
2009
2010
Total Cost/Sub rose 7.45%
PREVIOUS PROJECTS/SERVICES

BUD (the Big Ugly Database)
 Labor
intensive
 Large and unwieldy
 Limited functionality

Serials Solutions’ 360 Counter
 Left
burden of data clean-up to the library
 Costly for its purpose
 Limited functionality
Tables, Queries and Relationships
THE DESIGN OF THE SERIALS REVIEW DATABASE
CATALOG DATA





Holdings
Bibliographic Info.
Order Records
Resource Records
Access Providers
USAGE DATA
THE JR1 QUERY


Platform/Access Provider
Print ISSN/Online ISSN
Concatenation: ISSN-L/ACCS PRVDR CODE
THE HOLDINGS QUERY
Concatenation: ISSN-L/ACCS PRVDR CODE
TRACKING SUBSCRIPTIONS OVER TIME
SCode1: Code used to denote current subscriptions
RELATIONSHIPS
QUERIES UPON QUERIES
Not just Cost/Use by subscription
but also:
Use by ISSN
 Use by Platform
 Use by Subject
 Cost/Title by Subject
 Cost/Use by Subject

Averages, Medians, and Totals
THE BIG PICTURE: LOOKING AT TRENDS
THE SAMPLE
4224 Subscriptions (4060 titles) met the criteria:
Orders were cataloged as e-journal orders
 Currently received 2008-2010
 Non-consortial
 JR1 usage reports were available 2008-2010

TOTAL USAGE BY SEMESTER AND MONTH
540000
520000
500000
480000
460000
440000
420000
400000
2008 Jan-Jun
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2008 Jul-Dec
2009 Jan-Jun
2009 Jul-Dec
2010 Jan-Jun
2010 Jul-Dec
TOTALS, AVERAGES, AND MEDIANS
2008
2009
2010
2008-2010 Change
Total Cost/Sub
$551.93
$569.46
$593.07
7.45%
Total Use/Sub
215
224
228
6.16%
Median Use/Sub
67
70
73
8.96%
Total Cost/Use
$2.57
$2.54
$2.60
1.22%
Average Sub Cost/Use
$23.96
$19.06
$21.31
-11.07%
Median Sub Cost/Use
$4.19
$3.98
$3.84
-8.35%
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
Total Cost/Use
$15.00
Average Cost/Use
$10.00
Median Cost/Use
$5.00
$0.00
2008
2009
2010
COST/USE BY SUBJECT
2008-2010 data (5 or more titles per subject, 111 subjects)
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
Total Cost/Use
Average Cost/Use
Median Cost/Use
$10.00
$5.00
AP
BF
BR
CB
DA
DS
E
GB
GF
GV
HB
HE
HM
HT
JA
JN
K
LC
NA
P
PE
PN
Q
QC
QH
QP
RA
RD
RG
RL
RT
SD
TA
TH
TL
TR
U
$0.00
Packages, Subjects and Titles
THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PRESS ANALYSIS
CHICAGO UNIVERSITY PRESS
Titles moved to the JSTOR Platform 2011
 Price increased for 2011
 Number of titles increased for 2011


Analyzed the 2011 stats for the 2012 renewal
 2010
stats were complicated because of the
platform change, but JSTOR created the JR1b
 2011 stats were gathered for the Jan.-Aug. period
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
The database could already:
 Provide Cost, Use and Cost/Use for 2008-2010
 Provide LC subjects and impact factors for each title
Additional work:
 2011 JR1 for January-August (modified calculations)
 Query A was limited by platform and 2011 use added
 Query was exported to Excel for additional calculations


Summary data (totals, averages and medians by year)
Differences calculated from 2009 to 2011 as percentages
MAKING COMPARISONS
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
Chicago Cost/Use
$3.00
Overall Cost/Use
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
2008 COST/USE
Calculations
Total Cost
Total Use
Total Cost/Sub
Total Use/Sub
Total Cost/Use
Median Cost/Use
2009 COST/USE
2010 COST/USE
Cost/Use analysis
(4060 Titles)
Annual 2008-2010
3.66%
3.04%
3.66%
3.04%
0.62%
-4.26%
2011 COST/USE
Cost/Use analysis
(4060 Titles)
2008-2010
7.45%
6.16%
7.45%
6.16%
1.22%
-8.35%
Chicago study
(28-49 Titles)
2009-2011
18.35%
12.42%
-32.37%
-11.95%
-7.49%
-19.01%
CARRYING THE ANALYSIS FURTHER
•Three of the peaks in the Average Cost/Use include less than 5 titles (HJ, KF, PM)
•There are an average of 45 titles in each of these subjects with a median of 39
$80.00
$70.00
$60.00
$50.00
Total Cost/Use 2008-2010
$40.00
Chicago Cost/Use 2011
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
AP
BJ
BL
BR
CB
D
DA
DS
E
GN
HB
HC
HD
HF
HJ
HM
HQ
HV
K
KF
L
LC
N
NK
PA
PM
Q
QB
QE
QH
QK
QL
RA
RC
Z
$0.00
Matt Harrington, Leslie O’Brien
Virginia Tech
[email protected]
QUESTIONS?