Transcript Presentation - Centro de Innovación BBVA

HOW ROBOTICS WILL
CHANGE OUR LIVES
ROBOTS
01
Robots: friends or
nightmare?
03
INFOGRAPHIC
02
Robots in the spotlight
of the big technology
companies
04
Robot
fever
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE
The evolution of Robots
05
INTERVIEW
“Robots aren't a threat
and they're not going to
replace people”
01
Robots: friends
or nightmare?
China is set to lead the global production of
robots, followed by Europe and USA. But the
debate over the potential benefits and risks of
humanoids is already raging ( ).
The robotics revolution is supposed to come in 2030,
but you won't need to wait that long to see signs of
coexistence between humans and robots. In two
years China will lead global robot production,
churning out close to 400,000 units, well ahead of the
340,000 that Europe is expected to produce and the
300,000 set to be built in the United States, according
to figures
from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR).
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Will robots become man's best friend, or his nightmare? This is the
question that is always raised whenever we see a boom in
robotics, and all sorts of answers are always proffered. According
to the scientist Stephen Hawking… he cautioned in this interview
for the BBC.
“
“
Robots represent a threat to humanity.
Humans, who are limited by slow biological
evolution, couldn't compete, and would be
superseded
Stephen Hawking
The physicist has been
warning of the risks inherent
in artificial intelligence for
years, and this June he
presented a letter in Buenos
Aires that rallied against the
development of so called
"killer robots". The open
letter, signed also by Apple
co-founder Steve Wozniak,
founder of Tesla and cocreator of PayPal Elon Musk,
the linguist Noam Chomsky
and Demis Hassabis, Chief
Executive of the Google
artificial intelligence firm,
stated the concerns harbored
by thousands of scientists
due to the development of
autonomous military robots,
capable of operating without
human intervention.
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“It is only a matter of time
before the weapons end up in
the hands of terrorists and
warlords (...), autonomous
weapons have been
described as the third
revolution in warfare, after
gunpowder and nuclear arms
(...), autonomous weapons
are ideal for tasks such as
assassinations, destabilizing
nations, subduing populations
and selectively killing a
particular ethnic group (...).
Starting a military AI arms
race is a bad idea," warns the
letter.
Although Hawking is not
entirely against humanoids
and admits that the potential
benefits could be "enormous",
he cautions that current robot
development is channeled
more toward the destruction
of people. “Artificial
intelligence could serve to
eradicate war, disease and
poverty from the world.
However, we are seeing
priority given to investments
that will usher in an arms
race,” he said.
Leaving aside military
purposes and concentrating
instead on industrial uses, this
report from the Pew Research
Center, based on interviews
with around 2,000 tech
experts, scientists and
academics, found that half of
those surveyed believe that
machines will perform much
of the tasks now done by
humans, while the other half
expect robots to create more
jobs. The report concluded
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
that 2025 will be the year in
which robots play a very
significant role in
people's lives. A more recent
study found that humanoids
would take away 18 million
jobs in Germany within 20
years.
The human robot (
).
Rodolphe Gelin, Director of Aldebaran Robots, is more
optimistic. He points out that humanoids have
"a heart" and will represent the backbone of smart
homes, controlling lighting, temperature, cleaning and
food, providing the chief interface for operating
electronic appliances.
Aldebaran's robots are social and programmed to learn
humans' habits and intervene when necessary. Their
artificial intelligence allows them to interact with people
via voice and even recognize emotions. According to
Gelin, the fears that robots arouse are unjustified: "Like
any object or technology developed by man, robots
could pose a threat to humanity. Fire, cars, electricity,
nuclear energy and even writing can do both good and
bad for humanity. It all depends on what you do with it.
Robots intrinsically do not pose a danger to humanity."
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Instead, he believes “robots
will build a better future. They
will bring out the best in
people. There are fears, such
as of a spontaneous robot
rebellion, or robots being put
to bad use as a result of
piracy. But such problems are
not specific to robots; they
apply to all smart objects with
which we interact ( ).
Computer researchers,
specialists in IT security and
even attorneys are working to
resolve such problems even
before we begin living with
robots. It is very important
that everyone understand the
foundations of robots. Fear is
often born of ignorance. If
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every child is made familiar
with robots, just as they are
taught to use the Internet
properly, they will dominate
robotics. And the future of
robotics will be in good hands:
those of the people," he
concludes.
The Three Laws of Robotics
In 1942, science-fiction acclaimed writer and scientific dissemination
essayist Isaac Asimov established in his short story Runaround the
Three Laws of Robotics that every robot should be programmed to
respect.
A robot may not injure
a human being or,
through inaction,
allow a human being
to come to harm.
A robot must obey the
orders given it by
human beings except
where such orders
would conflict with the
First Law.
A robot must protect
its own existence as
long as such
protection does not
conflict with the First
or Second Laws.
These laws were
complemented with the
addition of the Zeroth
Law, that appeared on
Asimov's work, The
Bicentennial Man,
stating: A robot may not
harm humanity, or, by
inaction, allow humanity
to come to harm.
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In 2011 the most prominent engineering organizations in the United Kingdom published five
ethical principles of robotics, for robot designers and engineers to comply with.
Robots should not be
designed solely or
primarily to kill or harm
humans.
Humans, not robots,
are responsible
agents. Robots are
tools designed to
achieve human goals.
Robots are
manufactured artefacts.
They should not be
designed in a deceptive
way to exploit
vulnerable users;
instead their machine
nature should be
transparent.
The person with legal
responsibility for a
robot should be
attributed.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Robots are products.
They should be
designed using
processes which
assure their safety and
security.
02
Robots in the spotlight
of the big technology
companies
Artificial intelligence projects have moved $20 billion in the last five
years. An example of this trend is Google, which has bought a
dozen robotics companies in just three years ( ).
Fad or serious commitment?
Robotics is attractive to large
companies and what
appeared to be a whim of
their CEOs is emerging as
one of the sectors to track in
the coming years.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
2013 was the year that
Google placed its focus - and
money - on robotics with the
acquisition of numerous
companies. It finished the
year by purchasing Boston
Dynamics, one of the market
leaders, which provides
services to the Pentagon and
has a star among its ranks:
Cheetah robot, which is faster
than Usain Bolt.
Google's obsession with
robots has not diminished in
recent years. In 2014 it
bought the British company
specializing in artificial
intelligence DeepMind
Technologies for $400 million.
In 2015 one of the latest
operations of the Mountain
View company in the field of
industrial robotics was the
agreement with the American
pharmaceutical group
Johnson & Johnson to
manufacture
surgical robots.
deaths annually in the United
States, according to the MRI
Technology School.
The advantages for patients
of surgeries performed by
robots controlled by doctors
are high-precision and lessinvasive operations.
Although Google seems to be
more directed toward
industrial robotics, it doesn't
want to leave out the social
aspect.
Human errors cause between
44,000 and 98,000 patient
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
At mid-year, it registered the
Methods and systems for
robot personality development
patent to customize the robots
that may "be programmed to
take on the personality of a
person from the real world
(such as user behavior, a
deceased loved one or a
celebrity) and take on the
character traits of people
emulated by a robot".
That personality could be
transferred from one robot to
another, or shared among
several through cloud-based
computing: "This way, a user
could travel to another city
and download the personality
of his or her own home robot
into a robot based in the other
location. Robotic personality
would thus become
something transportable
and transferable” ( ).
Projects related to artificial
intelligence have accounted
for almost $20 billion dollars
(around 18 billion euros) since
2009 but some have come
with much controversy.
Several intellectuals and
scientists warned against socalled "killer robots”, Stephen
Hawking at the head, Bill
Gates was very concerned
about the "threat" of artificial
intelligence.
Although some people are not
as critical as informed in this
article published in El País
that includes the reflections of
the researcher at the
University of Toronto, Hector
Levesque: “Today's computers
are downright stupid.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Facebook is confident ( ) in
the common sense of robots
and tests conducted by the
laboratory developing new
intelligence led by the French
researcher LeCun. The US
company hired the renowned
scientist whose mission is "to
produce software with the
language skills and common
sense necessary to maintain a
basic conversation."
For example if you ask, "Joan
thanked Susan for all the help
she had given. Who gave the
help, Joan or Susan?" Google
can't answer that question.
That's the ghost missing from
the machine: common sense.
Sadly, much of the research
on artificial intelligence
conducted these days is
content with systems that only
read massive amounts of
data, without any sense.
These are the systems that
should scare us. Those that
are autonomous but have no
common sense."
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
"Instead of having to communicate with machines
by pressing buttons or entering carefully-selected
search terms, we could say what we want as if
we were talking to another person. Our
relationship with the digital world will completely
change through intelligent agents with which you
can interact ", he predicts. He believes that deep
learning can "produce software that understands
our sentences and is able to respond with
appropriate answers, clarifying questions, or
making their own suggestions," as noted in this
report in Technology Review.
Both Facebook and Google seem to be clear that
the future is in the hands of robots, provided they
are always controlled by humans.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
03/INFOGRAPHIC
The evolution of robots
The enormous progress being made in robotics has seen
jobs in some industries being automated, which has
sparked a debate on whether robots might eventually
replace humans.
Share on Pinterest
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The new
Robots
200
175
150
100
75
50
25
0
COMPANY:Rethink
Robotics
COMPANY: Boston
Dinamics /Google
COMPANY: Willow
Garage
HEIGHT: 190 cm
HEIGHT: 188 cm
HEIGHT: 165 cm
Designed to support
programming and provide
flexibility to small
manufacturers.
The DRC workhorse,
used by U.S. teams with
a range of software.
An advanced personal service
robot, used chiefly in
laboratories.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
200
175
150
100
75
50
25
0
COMPANY: Google
COMPANY: KUKA
COMPANY: Kaist
HEIGHT: 146 cm
HEIGHT: 203 cm
HEIGHT: 130 cm
Designed to complete
tasks with its hands,
supported by extensive
Japanese expertise in
humanoid robots.
Industrial robots used in
the world's most
advanced factories.
Developed as a platform
for a range of research
projects.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
200
175
150
100
75
50
25
0
COMPANY: NASA - JPL
COMPANY: Honda
COMPANY: Aethon
HEIGHT: 120 - 170 cm
HEIGHT: 120 cm
HEIGHT: 120 cm
An experimental robot with
multiple use limbs built
based on identical tracking.
The most recent Honda
creation is used for
practical applications.
Automated hauler and
transport robot, without
charisma, used in
hospitals.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
200
175
150
100
75
50
25
0
COMPANY: Unbounded
Robotics
COMPANY: iRobot
COMPANY: AIST
HEIGHT: 200 cm
HEIGHT: 57 cm
A robot that demonstrated
its value helping to defuse
improvised explosive
devices in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
Provides company to
senior citizens, with
therapeutic and social
benefits.
HEIGHT: 97 cm
A one-armed robot capable
of performing a series of
tasks.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
200
175
150
100
75
50
25
0
COMPANY: iRobot
COMPANY: DJI
HEIGHT: 35 cm
HEIGHT: 35 cm
The world's most popular cleaning
robot since 2002.
Able to fly to any location using a
system of cameras, opening new
markets and attracting new fans.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Robots in numbers
The global robotics industry
In 2013 there was one robot for every 5,000 workers
2014
1,200,000
2010
1,000,000
2005
932,000
2002
750,000
1995
1990
605,000
454,000
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Robot density
The number of robotic workers is growing. For example, in Japan for
every
1,000 workers there are 34 industrial robots performing similar tasks.
Other
9.7%
Non-specific
25%
Optics
9%
Automotive
33.1%
Food
1.5%
Electricity
9.9%
Communication
2.5%
Chemistry
9.4%
Metal
3.7%
454.000
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
Machinery
4.3%
04
Robot fever
Around 320 million workers could be replaced by robots everywhere
in the world. There is a proliferation of studies that analyze the
economic impact of robots, which could surpass 1.7 trillion dollars
by 2025 in the health, manufacturing and services sectors, among
others ( ).
July 2015. The Henn Na
hotel, or “Weird Hotel”, has
opened. The news is in all of
around the world. It is the first
establishment where robots
attend to guests. It costs 66
euros to stay the night
surrounded by androids who,
although cannot make the
bed, do not ask for a wage
and can work without a break
seven days a week, 24 hours
a day.
Henn Na is a good example of
robot fever in Japan. The
country, one of the leading
countries in terms of robots,
continues to focus on this
technology. A month ahead of
the opening of the “Weird
Hotel”, the robot called
Pepper had sold out just one
minute after it went up for
sale. Its price, 1,500 euros,
did not stop the madness over
this
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
small android --120
centimeters tall, weighing 28
kilos and a 14-hour battery-which can interpret emotions
and interact with people.
"Depending on the emotion at
the time, Pepper talks more
loudly or sighs, relaxes around
people it knows, is pleased
when it receives a
compliment, or is frightened
when the lights go out",
explain its creators. On top of
the initial price, it costs 177
euros a month for three years
to connect to the cloud, which
allows Pepper to keep up its
learning with the rest of the
Peppers on the market. This
pushes its price up to a grand
total of 8,000 euros.
Although it was initially
designed with families in mind,
Pepper can also attend to
clients at Japanese
establishments. The country,
which has an unemployment
rate of 3.3%, is struggling to
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
alleviate the aging of its
population. Japan has around
127 million people. Out of
them, only 12.8% are less
than 14 years old. The
Japanese government
estimates that by 2060 the
population will total 86 million
people, 40% over 65 years
old. That is why it is looking to
robots to make up for the lack
of workforce
( ).
The economic
impact of robots
The robot industry and
production automation
technology rose by 14.4%
compared to 2014, although
not only Japan is experiencing
a robot revolution. A study by
Boston Consulting Group
(BCG) reveals that robots will
replace factory workers at a
faster rate than expected over
the next decade, bringing
labor costs down by 16%.
Investment in
robots will rise by 10% a year
in the 25 main exporting
countries by 2025 ( ).
“Connected and capable of
resolving complex problems,
the new generation of robots
will be able to take on 25% of
automated tasks versus the
10% that traditional robots
currently perform”, according
to the study, which goes on to
say that over the next 10
years investment in robots will
total 60,000 million euros,
compared to 25,000 million
this year.
Using robots will bring down
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
labor costs by 33% in South
Korea, 25% in Japan, 24% in
Canadaand 22% in the United
States and Taiwan. Just 10%
of jobs that can be automated
are currently performed by
robots. In 2025, machines will
account for more than 23% of
these job posts, according to
forecasts by Boston
Consulting.
Regarding their efficiency,
another study, “The robots are
coming”, by Deloitte, highlights
that robots have an error
margin of 0.02% and adds that
they can perform any rulebased, repetitive process
subject to human error, with
peak workloads that require
night shifts or overtime and are
not essential for the company.
invasion of robots will have an
economic impact of 1.7-4.5
trillion dollars by 2025 in
sectors such as health,
manufacturing and services,
and that in the medium-term
some 320 million workers
could be replaced by robots
everywhere in the world. The
robot revolution seems to be a
serious thing this time.
According to Deloitte, “the
reality is that automation and
robots lower costs and are
quick to implement because it
only takes two to four weeks to
automate any process”.
Deloitte explains that in the UK
a robot costs a ninth of the
total cost of an employee.
McKinsey estimates that the
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
05/INTERVIEW
"Robots aren't a threat and
they're not going to replace people"
Luis Moreno, professor at the Carlos III University in Madrid, emphasizes that although countries
are going to demand more robots, it won't result in a process for replacing people ( ).
Luis Moreno, robotics expert
and professor at the Carlos III
University in Madrid, works on
developing exoskeletons for
restoration, manipulating
artificial hands to give them a
human sensitivity, and on
differentautonomous systems
so as robots can calculate
routes, avoid walls and
obstacles and even find paths
on Mars.
What's the challenge of
robotics? ( )
There are quite a few
challenges. The old mobile
robotics, vehicles with sensors
that move with a certain
understanding of the
environment and avoid
obstacles, is going to be
applied in two fields: the
vehicles field (Google) and
space exploration, which is a
less visible field.
Another field is the service
robot, or the so-called social
robots. They don't have a
great ability to handle things,
but they have many qualities
for social relationships.
They're able to synthesize
speech and understand part
of what is being said, with
obvious limitations. This is
reaching hospitals for
Alzheimer patients and hotels,
and a lot of work is being put
into the exoskeleton, or
humanoid, part.
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015
What do you think about
Google purchasing dozens of
robotics companies over the
last few years?
Google's purchase sounds
amazing because it's Google,
but all the technology that's
currently on the market, such
as the automatic parking of
cars, is what robotics
laboratories were doing in the
'80s.Google's case is highly
publicized, but to give you an
example, years ago we had a
car in Madrid that came down
from the mountain to the city
on its own. The technology
was already mature and
Google hasn't done any
marvelous research, although
what's being done isn't at all
bad as it's not easy to put this
technology on the market.
What problems is robotics
facing?
Robotics is a bank of
integration for any technology.
It's facing energy problems
and actuator problems.We
can't develop robots that are
more sophisticated or that
have more human skills
because the actuators we have
are still engines, mainly
electric.
Another challenge is
understanding situations.
Making a robot understand.
Another huge problem we are
facing is how to teach them.
Programming a robot's activity
is very complicated, and
nowadays you pretty much
need an engineer to be with it
continuously, and every
laboratory around the world is
INNOVATION TRENDS SERIE · SEPTEMBER 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com/en
trying to teach robots. Learning
things is a challenge, although
we mustn't forget about the
sensory part.
At present, we aren't able to
develop anything equivalent to
a human hand in terms of
ability, sensitivity and strength.
Sensors have their limitations,
for example, robots can only
see between 7 and 8 meters of
volumetric image.
Are robots going to replace
people in day-to-day jobs? ( )
No. The most robotic countries
are the richest countries and
those that have the highest
levels of employment. Japan,
Korea and the United States,
for example, don't use robots
to replace people and they
aren't interested in doing so.
Robots are expensive, very
expensive, and they are used
to improve product quality. The
car industry didn't introduce
robots to
replace people, possibly
because robots are much more
expensive. However, robots
can weld with a very high
precision. They're not going to
replace people. The most
automated countries tend to
produce products with a higher
quality, they sell more products
around the world, and
therefore have more wealth
and employment. That's the
reality.
SERIE INNOVATION TRENDS · SEPTIEMBRE 2015 · www.centrodeinnovacionbbva.com
So robots aren't a threat?
I don’t think so. Countries are
going to demand more robots.
This is the case, for example,
of Japan with social robots.
They don't replace anyone,
they accompany patients, they
check their health, they remind
them to take their medication,
they chat to each other. They
don't replace anyone because
no one else is doing that.
Exoskeletons aren't going to
fire anyone. The person who
gives them the job will be in
charge.The feeling of threat
isn't real right now.
What country will lead
robotization over the next few
years?
China will become robotic but
not to fire people. It will do so
because many of its products
aren't of a very high quality.
China will become more clearly
robotic over the next twenty
years. It has an industry that
needs to produce higher
quality. It can't continue to just
sell cheap products. It will have
to become robotic,since
human hands can't assemble
products with a high quality.
And how do you see Europe?
Germany is very robotic, and
France, Italy and Spain have
good levels, especially in
certain industries such as cars
and electronics. They're not
doing badly at all.
Latin America?
Latin America still doesn't have
a huge manufacturing industry,
which is where robotics come
in. The level is lower due to the
type of industry and they don't
have a high need.
What do you think about the
controversy of the so-called
"killer robots"?
Every technology that's
developed around the world
has a double use. Drones don't
shoot by themselves.Behind
each robot is a person that's
programming its movements
and actions. Vaccinations can
be used to kill or cure.
Everything, not just robots, can
be used in one way or another,
for good or for bad.
China
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