Transcript Decision
Decision-making Systems Overview What managers do? Decision-making Many views of MIS Types of MIS What managers do? P ie Regular meetings 1 59. 0% Travel 3. 0% Other meetings 10. 0% 6. 0% Phone calls 22. 0% Desk work Managerial roles and IS support Role IS support interpersonal e-mail, video/teleconferencing, computer-mediated meetings informational TPS,MIS,EIS,OIS decisional DSS,GDSS,EIS, AI/ES Decision-making Intelligence problem definition Design alternatives Choice resolution Decision Support in Business Information Requirements of Decision Makers Decision Structure Unstructured Information Characteristics Strategic Management Executives & Directors Semi-Structured Tactical Management Business Unit Management Self-Directed Teams Structured Operational Management Ad Hoc Unscheduled Summarized Infrequent Forward Looking External Wide Scope Prespecified Scheduled Detailed Frequent Historical Internal Narrow Focus Operating Management & Self-Directed Teams Decision Support in Business Characteristics of Information Products Time Dimension Content Dimension Form Dimension Decision Support in Business Decision Structure Structured Decisions Semistructured Unstructed Operational Control Management Control Strategic Planning Structured Accounts payable Responsibility accounting Warehouse and factory location Semistructured Production scheduling Budget preparation Mergers and acquisitions Unstructured Cash management Personnel management New products, R&D planning Time horizon strategic tactical operational NOW weeks years 5-7 Users' view USER Clerical personnel First-level managers Staff specialists Management USES Handling transactions, process data and answer inquiries Obtaining operations data. Assistance with planning, scheduling, identifying out-of-control situations and making decisions Information for analysis. Assistance with analysis, planning and reporting. Regular reports. Special retrieval requests. Special analysis and reports. Assistance in indentifying problems and opportunities. Assistance in decision-making analysis. Federative view M A R K E T I N G P R O D U C T I O N F I N A N C E P E R S O N N E L Data base management system DATA BASE M A N A G E M E N T Integrative view Functional areas s t r a t e g i c p l a n n i n g m a n a g e m e n t c o n t r o l Decision levels o p e r a t i o n a l c o n t r o l t r a n s a c t i o n p r o c e s s i n g D a t a b a s e m a n a g e m e n t s y s t e m Data base management system D A T A B A S E Typical Business System Orders for Materials Manufacturing Group Sales Orders Requisition Credit Department Order Desk Purchasing Invoice Sent for Shipping Rules/ Standards Finished Goods Stockroom Materials Order Inventory Management Shipping/ Receiving Accounting Shipping Traffic Copyright 1995 Prentice Hall Merchandise Ordered CI S 3 Types of Information Systems TPS MIS EIS DSS GDSS AI/ES transaction processing systems management reporting executive information systems decision support systems group decision support systems expert systems Management Information Systems Management Reporting Alternatives Components of a Marketing Information CLIENTS System INTERNAL Sales Prospects and Rivals’ News DATABASES SERVER Rivals’ News and Company News Sales Prospects Rivals’ News Sales Prospects and Company News Customer Data Sales Data News Wires Company News The Server Filters Information Based on Users’ Custom Requirements Inventory Data Via the Internet Firewall Decision type STRUCTURED Intelligence knowledge Design of all Choice steps TPS SEMI-STRUCTURED no knowledge of one or two steps DSS UNSTRUCTURED no knowledge of any of the steps EIS DSS generators DSS tools technical support Specific DSS USERS DSS Generator intermediary DSS Builder toolsmith managers, manager users Anatomy of a DSS model base data base DBMS MBMS DGMS DSS generator dialog,user interface users Dialog styles Basic types Q&A - Question and answer Command language Menu Input Form/Output Form Input-in-Context-of-Output Pros and cons Mixed dialogs Decision Support Systems Using Decision Support What-if Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Goal-Seeking Analysis Optimization Analysis GDSS - Group Decision Support Systems TIME PLACE – ANY (asynch) DSS plus: SAME (synch) Groupware place SAME FACE-TO-FACE CONFERENCE (WEBTYCHO) ANY VIDEO/TELECONFERENC ING VIRTUAL Facilities LAN decision high network Decision frequency Decision room WAN decision network Teleconferencing low close far Executive Information Systems present information for top management supports problem/opportunity discovery and assessment is used for control and strategic planning are multimedia systems provide summary and detailed information, with the ability to "drill down" into the data provide internal and external information provide different time and space information Artificial Intelligence Overview of AI Artificial Intelligence The Domains of AI Artificial Intelligence Cognitive Science Applications •Expert Systems •Learning Systems •Fuzzy Logic •Genetic Algorithms •Neural Networks •Intelligent Agents Robotics Applications •Visual Perception •Tactility •Dexterity •Locomotion •Navigation Natural Interface Applications •Natural Languages •Speech Recognition •Multisensory Interfaces •Virtual Reality Expert systems ...an intelligent computer program that uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems that require significant human expertise for their solution. The knowledge of an expert systems consists of facts and heuristics. Facts constitute the body of information publicly available and agreed upon by experts in a field. Heuristics are mostly private rules of good judgement that characterize expert-level decision making in a field. E. Feigenbaum, Stanford University Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems The Expert System Expert System Software Expert Advice User Interface Programs Inference Engine Program Knowledge Base User Workstation Expert System Development Knowledge Acquisition Program Knowledge Engineering Expert and/or Knowledge Engineer Workstation Use and development of ES Expert systems products Expert systems shells Expert systems players knowledge user knowledge engineer domain expert Artificial Intelligence Virtual Reality (VR) • Computer Simulated Reality • Multisensory Input/Output Devices • Data Glove • Walker • Creating Telepresence With Sight, Sound, and Touch Artificial Intelligence Virtual Reality (VR) GIS It is important to appreciate that GIS does not always provide exact answers to problems, but by identifying trends based on geography, GIS can reveal patterns that can help us make informed decisions. A GIS can improve decision-making; it cannot make decisions for us. GIS Example: Emergency services By using the GIS as a computerized map, controllers of police vehicles and ambulances can instantly call up a detailed map of the area around an incident. By tracking the vehicles in real time and using route-finding GIS functions, the controller can identify the best vehicle to attend and give directions for the fastest way to the incident. They can even store historical information and look for incident patterns and black spots. Shortcut to GIS_example.lnk GIS Example: Supermarket locations Supermarket chains use GIS to help site new stores and to plan their distribution networks. By comparing how many people live within 15-minutes drive time of a particular location with the number of supermarkets already trading in that area, the GIS can identify suitable locations with an optimized catchment area. Supermarket chains also use socioeconomic data to create profiles of the people in their catchment areas to help them understand which other parts of the country are likely to be successful growth areas. Additional Readings SDSS Virtual Teams Commerical GDSS An Expert systems Application DSS..Application GIS Applications Neural Networks Negotaiation System Example Knowledge management: big challenges, big rewards New Directions in GDSS RMIS system provides Chubb customers with current data and extensive drill-down analysis