Transcript Big Brother Scenario - Homepages | The University of Aberdeen

“It is very difficult to make an accurate
prediction, especially about the future.”
Niels Bohr (Physicist)
 Main sources of predictions:
 AI Academics
 Science Fiction Writers
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Often correct…
1945: geostationary satellites as telecommunications relays
“By 2050, our lives will be populated with
all kinds of intelligent robots.”
Rodney Brooks (MIT AI lab)
 Possibly true…
 Lives already full of computers and AI
 Robot technology maturing
BBC interview with Rodney Brooks and Ray Kurzweil
Interviewer:
Will our hyper-intelligent coffee makers in 2050
suddenly decide to kill us like HAL in 2001?
Or will humans be made redundant by a legion of
intelligent machines?
Response:
No. We will not wake up one day to find our lives
populated with all manner of artificially
intelligent devices…
Despite the rapid advance of technology, the advent
of strong AI will be a gradual process.
Big Brother Scenario
 “Big Brother”
 a state which will control the whole life of its citizens
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Human technical ruling class
Credible? Wealth gap in US widens in past 50 years
Wealth gap between rich and poor countries increases
Internet increases ability of rich to extract wealth from poor
 Sources of value can easily be connected (increasing value for them)
and disconnected (cutting the out of loop)
 Education, technology more important than ever for value creation
 But extremely unevenly distributed
 Big brother scenario:
ruling class may control population through AI technology
Big Brother Scenario
 Privacy Invasions by Biometrics and ICT Implants
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used for personal identification
everybody can be recognized and identified everywhere
Scanned on entry to shops/public places
Payment of cash may disappear
 Identify dissent – attempts at organised uprising
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Currently easy to monitor communications – phone and internet
But many man hours needed to analyse recordings
AI could step in
Already does for keywords
Data mining could identify “troublemakers” early
Analyse what you are reading
Social networking sites give yet more sinister opportunities
Autonomous technology is a danger
By 2020…
 Today, via loyalty cards shop’s computers predict your purchase and order
 Soon… routine insurance claims/loans will be assessed entirely using AI
 Intelligent agents cut out direct human input
 key activities such as surveillance, security, and tracking
 No humans need to be involved
 technology will generate dangers not recognised
 …until it is impossible to reverse them
 on a "J" curve of continued acceleration of change
Compiled reactions from the 742 respondents:
42% agreed
54% disagreed
4% did not respond
The 2006 Pew Internet & American Life/Elon University Predictions Survey
The Matrix Scenario
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AI technology able to replace humans at work
Massive unemployment?
People gradually spend more and more time in Virtual Worlds
Eventually forget about “real” world
Example: World of Warcraft has over 9M subscribers
 More than the population of many countries
 June 2005 child died due to neglect by her World of Warcraft-addicted
parents in Korea
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjjvW8v96dc
Rise of the machines?
In the future envisaged by the movies, technology is out to
destroy us. But could it really happen?
“The only reason to fear technology is because it enables
people to do bad things to each other ...
but that's happened throughout history.
It's just that the means have arguably become more
sophisticated.”
Matthew Kirkcaldie
Rise of the machines?
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(fiction) Skynet is a computer-based defense system
Placed in control of all U.S. Military's weaponry
Remove possibility of human error
Skynet became self-aware
(there exist a number of sci-fi stories on a similar theme)
Credible?
Rise of the machines - credible?
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Much AI research is funded by military
USS Vincennes – was put down to human error
What if it had been computer controlled?
As AI improves – tendency to give it more control
 Especially in time-critical situations
 …machines in control of military hardware seems credible
 Machines losing the plot?
 Humans sometimes do… after millions of years of evolution…
 Maybe even more likely for machines
 But machines unexpectedly becoming intelligent/sentient probably
unlikely
Singularity
 The technological singularity
 Hypothesized creation of smarter-than-human entities
 Machine can keep augmenting their own mental abilities
 Seed AI
 “The first ultraintelligent machine is the last
invention that man need ever make” – Irving Good
 Rapidly accelerate technological progress
 Human beings no longer capable of participating
 What does "smarter-than-human" really mean?
 We don't know because we're not that smart
 What happens after the Singularity?
 Nobody knows
 our model of the future breaks down
 Credible? Some would say ability to predict improves
Transhumanism
 Defined in 1957 by Aldous Huxley’s brother Julian Huxley
“man remaining man, but transcending himself, by
realizing new possibilities of and for his ‘human nature’”
 The use of new sciences and technologies
 to enhance human mental and physical abilities and
aptitudes
 ameliorate undesirable and unnecessary aspects
 stupidity, suffering, disease, aging and involuntary death.
 Technologies
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Genetic engineering
Implants, robotic prostheses
Nanotechnology
Drugs
Possibly uploading personality to a non-biological substrate
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http://www.newscientist.com/blog/technology/2007/11/militarys-new-exoskeleton.html
Transhumanism already happening…
2006 first bionic arm attached to female
amputee
 Rehabilitation Institute of Chicago
 Arm controlled by thoughts
 Signals from nerves from stump of the lost arm
rewired into the recipient’s chest
Transhumanist Opponents
 The first victim of transhumanism might be equality.
 The U.S. Declaration of Independence says that
“all men are created equal”
“If we start transforming ourselves into something superior,
what rights will these enhanced creatures claim,
and what rights will they possess when compared to those
left behind?
If some move ahead, can anyone afford not to follow? “
Francis Fukuyama (Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)
Next Step of Evolution?
 Evolution hardly stops at human
 Next step could be by human design rather than random
 Evolution of humanity into a posthuman life-form
 Combining human and artificial parts
 or Transhumanist genetic engineering
 Could lead to different races
 Those who stay human
 Those who accept/can afford modification
 Alternatively humanity may be replaced by artificial intelligence
 Will they keep humans as pets?
 Or in zoos?
 Or on some reservations?
Next step of evolution
We rely more and more on machine intelligence
 Lose our ability to survive independently
 Eventually, world will be dominated by companies
that are controlled entirely by artificial intelligence.
Anyone wishing to switch off the machines
would effectively be committing suicide
Source: Independent Newspapers UK Limited
Rights for Robots
Robots could one day demand the same
citizen's rights as humans,
 According to a study by the UK Office of
Science and Innovation's
“Horizon Scanning Centre”.
Rights for Robots
 Robots develop to the point where they can
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Behave intelligently
Reproduce
Improve themselves
Understand emotion, empathise, feel emotion
 Robots would have certain responsibilities
 Care for humans (e.g. elderly)
 Compulsory military service
 Contribute to economy, pay taxes
 Society should give rights to new citizens
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Human rights such as not to be killed, tortured or abused
Voting, expressing opinion, protesting
Participation in political institutions
nondiscrimination
Difficult Questions…
 If robots are truly intelligent is it fair to relegate them to
a life of menial chores?
 If intelligent robots have rights then
 is it fair to create “disabled” robots who have less
intelligence, in order to use them for menial chores?
 Brave new world?
 Where is the dividing line between a creature
qualifying for rights and one not qualifying?