Transcript Bushnell

Where is it all
Going?
Dennis M. Bushnell
Chief Scientist
NASA Langley Research Center
• Overall:
An attempt to address “Where is it all
Going?”
• Fair Warning:
Broader and farther term than you may be
accustomed to, Much is Not “Pretty”
• Assertion:
Based upon what is in the Laboratory NOW,
No “Pixie Dust” or Science Fiction
•Hunter-Gatherer - “Nature Provided”
•Agriculture - Controlled Nature
(Plants/Animals), enabled civilization
•Industrial - Mechanized Agriculture
[1800-97% Farmers,Now-2%]
•IT/BIO/Nano - Automating
Industry/Agriculture [ 1950-60%,Now11%, heading to 2%]
•Virtual - Robotization of
IT/Bio/Nano/Industry/Agriculture [TBD]
•Technology MATTERS - For Both Good and
ill………
Humans Have “Taken Over” and
Vastly Shortened “Evolution”
[Human-Engendered some E7 Faster than
“natural” Evolution”]
• Of the Planet
– Global Warming/Pollution/Deforestation/Species
Extinction
– Huge “Public Works” (e.g. 3 Gorges Dam)
• Of the Human Species
– Genomic Design and Repair
– “Mind Children” (Moravec)
• Products/Life Forms
– Cross Species Molecular Breeding
– “Directed Evolution” (Maxygen etc.)
Current Competitive Landscape
• U.S. produces only 18% of Worlds GDP [and dropping]
• ~ 70% of Research conducted offshore, ~ 30% of U.S.
Research conducted offshore
• $500B/yr Trade Deficit & a deficit in high tech products
• U.S. 29th in Life Expectancy, 72nd in overall health level
• 5th in Number of R&D Personnel/Labor Unit
• Negative-to-3% Savings Rate vs. 30% in Asia
• 13th to 23rd out of 30 - Student Math/Science Scores
• 80th in % of Univ. Degrees in S&T
• 13th in College Participation [down from first a decade ago]
• U.S Technical Universities must now “compete” for Foreign
students with foreign Universities
Current Competitive Landscape
•U.S. 8th, Global Innovation Index [were number 1 in
‘95]
•Only 6 of the worlds’ 25 most competitive High Tech
companies are based in the U.S. [14 are in Asia]
•U.S. 11th out of 25 in % of the labor Force in
“Creative” [New ideas/technology/content]
occupations
•The ~ $500B/yr Trade Deficit is ~ 80% of the entire
Worlds’ Net Savings…
•“Half of IBM’s 190,000 S&T’s Reside Overseas…..”
Current Competitive Landscape
• U.S. 12th in Scientific Papers pub. Per Capita
• For cost of 1 S&T in U.S., can hire 5 in China and
11 in India [Major % of U.S. Engineering now
performed offshore- is a “commodity”]
• Of 120 Major Chemical plants under construction,
1 in U.S., 50 in China
• Only 3 American Companies ranked among the
top 10 U.S. Patent recipients
• U.S. Industry spends more on tort litigation than
R&D
• Walmart and McDonalds created 44% of all new
jobs
Synopsis – Current U.S. Sit-Rep
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Education System not Competitive
Health System “not good”
Share of Global GDP declining
Massive Debt[s], SOL artificially high
Innovation Metrics Dropping
Engineering going offshore
70% of global Research Offshore
There are now seven major and
simultaneous Societal Existential
Issues, Any one of which will
Change Society as we know it
MUCH. The impacts of all seven,
including potential synergisms, is
approaching the unfathomable…….
[Simultaneous] Existential Societal
Issues
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Climate Change/ Energy
Massive Debt [ AKA “The Great Correction”]
Water/ Food shortages/Environmental issues
5 Simultaneous game-changing Tech Revolutions,
Tele-Everything, the Death of Death
• Luddites/ Individual Destructive Power
• Robotics/ Machine Intelligence/ Employment
• Humans merging with the Machines
IPCC Estimates…….
• Based upon “SOLID” Science
• By 2100;
- 5-6 degrees C
- A meter to 2.6 meter Ocean Rise
How Far Off are the Climate/Warming
Estimates?
- Projected arrival of ice-free Summers in
the Arctic Ocean has shifted, in a few
years [ based upon “ground truth”,
what is actually happening] from 2100
to 2040 to 2014………
- Greater than projected worst case
CO2 rise rate, Oceans warming
faster,Ocean Acidification 10X faster
Positive Feedbacks not included in
Current Warming Estimates
• Fossil Methane [22X CO2] Release[s]
[Tundra/Ocean]
• Tundra Soil and Ocean CO2 Releases
• Reduced Ocean CO2 uptake [ Temp increase,
Acidification, Algae Reductions]
• Further Albedo changes
• Further Water Evaporation
• Ocean Circul./O2 changes,H2S Prod.
With the Positive Feedbacks..
• By 2100, Possibly:
- 12-14 degrees C
- At those Temperatures, beyond 2100 [ ~
2130ish?] all the Ice melts, some 75 Meter
Ocean Rise, directly affect over 2 Billion people.
- Alteration of the Ocean Circulators, H2S
production in Anoxic Oceans, Toxic atmosphere
and Ozone layer Depletion [Losing area of
Oceans equal to state of Texas each year now to
anoxic conditions]
The “Great Dying” [The Permian
[90%] Extinction- 250 MY ago]
triggered [as was Venusian Warming]
by massive Volcanic CO2 & Particulate
release. Anthropogenic CO2 release[
100X largest volcanic rate] is
substituting for the Volcanic input,
triggering the positive feedback
mechanisms
Rational[s] for “Going Green”
• Escalating Price of Petroleum
• “Warming” [floods, storms, disease, ocean
levels, droughts, species extinctions, tidal
waves, Ocean Acidification, Ocean
Circulation, H2S ]
• National Security/Geo-Politics [ Middle East
and all that]
• Economics/ Balance of Payments [over half
of ~ $600B PLUS trade deficit is Oil]
• Personal Economics/ “Independence”
[ Conventional] Energy Outlook
• Peak cheap Oil was ‘08 at some 87 M BBl/Day,
now pumping below 80 and Demand rising,
esp. in Asia, Costs will greatly escalate
• Peak cheap Uranium [ unless we go Breeder/
Thorium] is ~ 2025
• Peak cheap natural gas is 2030ish
• Peak cheap Coal is 2050 ish…….Coal CO2
Sequestration will price coal above the major
renewables
Current Worldwide Energy Usage
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Petroleum - 140 Exojoules
Natural Gas - 85
Coal - 90
Biomass - 55 [ Potential to 4,000+ ]
Nuclear Fission - 28
Hydroelectric - 9
Geothermal - 2 [ potential to 5,000 ]
Solar - .2 [ Potential to 4,000+]
Others [Wind, etc.] - ~7 [Potential to ~5,000]
Suggested Green Energy Best
Bets/“Ways Forward”
• Seawater Ag, Aquaculture/Algae, Cellulosic Biofuels,
genomic bio to replace Petroleum for transportation
• Drilled Geothermal, Biomass, Solar Thermal and Nano
Plastic PV [ with thermal storage/T-PV extraction, Hybrid
vehicle Distributed Elec. storage or Sterling M-G for Solar
night time] and Wind to replace coal
• Also - Tidal Currents, 20%-30% Efficient Thermo-electrics
[ “Harvesting”, cycle efficiency ], SMES w/CNT Magnets [
10X Chem storage?], extract atmos. CO2/process using
solar energy into CO/ Fuels , Horiz. OTEC/ Gulf Stream
• And - Positron storage as Positronium, IECF P-B11 ,
LENRs, ZPE Expts., High Altitude Wind
Aquaculture……..
• Algae and Bacteria, capable of up to 20,000+
Gals fuel/acre-year [ vice some 800 or less from
Agriculture -], ~ 35%-60% Oil
• Prospective “Algae Ponds” within the U.S. include
the Great Salt Lake, the Salton Sea , the “Dry
Lakes” and waste water treatment plants, Then
there is the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and the Gulf
of Mexico [ using the Miss. Nutrient
Outflow]…..and “at home” growth/processing
• Uses “Waste” resources - Saline/waste
water/land, ~ 4% of U.S. land mass to replace
Petroleum vice 40%………
From Bioengineering…..
• Engineered Microbes which utilize CO2,
sunlight and waste water to produce [
projected] 20,000 gals of fuel/ acre-year,
with Economics competitive with
Petroleum at some $50/bbl. [ Petroleum
now over $80/bbl]
• “Joule Biotechnologies” , Nascent
Technology, A potential MAJOR
transportation fuels breakthrough.
The “Final” [ Last Resort]
Solution
• Genomically modify the Biota [ incl.
humans] to “Take the Heat”
- Ongoing studies of “Extremaphiles’, biologics in
deep ocean vents, in deserts, in Yellowstone
pools etc. plus the ongoing Bio Revolution [
Genomics, Synthetic Biology] proffers the
possibility of Designer Life forms [ incl.
Humanoids] capable of thriving in whatever
evolves [ Venus-like conditions is a “worst case” ~ 400 degrees C if all the Ocean Methane/CO2
“Escapes”]
Econometrics, Debt
• Massive U.S. [ Domestic/Foreign/Consumer]
Debt, current “solution” is MORE DEBT, only REAL
solution is reduced standard of living [
economics, climate]
• Debt Situation will produce inflation, higher
interest rates, higher taxes as well as lower
standards of living
• Industrial age wealth created via natural
resources, IT age wealth created by Inventing
things, EDUCATION is KEY
• Molecular manufacturing and the machines will
[eventually] create vast wealth
World Economic Outlook
• Much-to-Most of the World Economic runup in recent decades was
due to massive U.S. Debt. [ ~ $800B/ year Trade Deficit, ~ $300B-to$1.4 T/yr Domestic Debt, ~ $1T Consumer debt], Overall U.S. Debt is
$15.6 T [ Interest-Bearing],$ 60T [ unsecured Obligations], $4.8T to
ROW
• Part of This debt was recently called, current “solution” involves yet
MORE DEBT, this time on the backs of our Grand Children., NOT
SUSTAINABLE. Interest rates and taxes heading MUCH HIGHER.
• BOTH the Climate/Energy AND Financial Realities Debt service,
[increasing interest rates and taxes] strongly indicate the world will
have to revert to ‘Living within our means”, will have to back off from
living on ever more debt, resulting in reduced standards of living here
and everywhere
• Several of the ongoing Technology Revolutions COULD [ eventually]
significantly mitigate the requisite standard-of-living adjustments TBD
Major U.S. Debt Issues
• Interest on the Debt, MAJOR ISSUE…………
• Military Costs [ We are the Worlds largest Debtor
Nation, if we give up the worlds largest military then
they would probably Foreclose, will no longer be a
“Safe Haven”…]
• Medical Costs/ Aging Population
• Social Security/ Aging Population
• Employment changes due to Robotics
• Changing to Renewable Energy, climate change
Econometrics “Ways Forward”
• Exploit Shift from Industrial Age wealth
creation via Natural Resource Exploitation to
IT Age wealth creation via “Inventing Things”
• Fix STEM Ed via very inexpensive/superb,
highly motivational virtual Ed
• Fix Health Care via Prevention, Tele-Med
• Using Advanced Techs create solution spaces
for Frontier Issues [ Energy, materials, Bio] and
PROTECT/Exploit the technology
The Ecosystem appears to be
“Crashing”
• Fresh Water Shortages
• Species Extinctions, Emergence of Fragile
Mono-culture Biomes
• CO2 etc. induced “Climate Change”
• “Pollution” of all manner
• Deforestation
• Losses of Topsoil & Wildlife Habitat
- Overall, Humans Practicing “AntiTerraforming”
“Prevention of collapse of the
Ecosystem has now become the
overwhelming issue”
European Commission on Key
Technologies for Europe,2005
Water/Food
• Current food production based on Fresh Water Plants
• We are “running out” of Fresh Water
• The Ecosystem is “Crashing”, the “code word” is
“Sustainability”
[Engendered by Population Growth,~ 30% too many of us for
the Ecosystem to support NOW, if/as ROW attains U.S.
Consumption rate will need 3 more planets…]
- Resulting in “PEAK EVERYTHING”…………
- A “Solution” is to switch to Halophytes [ “Salt Plants”],
produce food on wastelands using saline/salt water, 22 nations
working this, ‘Solves” Land, water, food, energy, minerals and
climate change.
Just a goodly portion of the Sahara capable of
providing [ using halophytes, seawater Irrig.]
sufficient Biomass to replace ALL of the Fossil
Carbon, provide petrochemical feedstock and
all the requisite food whilst returning some of
the 68% of the fresh water now used for
Conventional Agric. to direct human use.
Overall – “Solves” land, water, food, energy &
warming…
“Entering The Age of the
Small,The Fast,The Smart
and the Many….”
[And the Inexpensive and
Ubiquitous]
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THE KEY TECHNOLOGIES
(highly synergistic / at the frontiers of the small / in
a “feeding frenzy” off each other)
IT (comms/computing/sensors/electronics/machine
intelligence)
Bio (genomics/molecular biology/designer life forms)
Nano (coatings/barriers/computers/sensors/materials/
“assemblers”)
Energetics (HEDM (various)/revol.
solar/biomass/explosives/propellants/storage)
Quantum
[crypto/computing/sensors/optics/Electronics]
Societal Technological Systems (motivational
asynchronous “distance learning,” immersive/virtual
presence, “tele-everything,” “robotic everything,”]
Worldwide IT Revolution
• Comms/Computing/Sensors/Electronics
• Factor of E07 since ’59 [Moores’ Law]
• Factor of E08 to E12 further improvement
[Silicon,Molecular/CNT, Quantum, Bio, Optical]
• Beyond Human Machine Intelligence?
• Automatics/Robotics “in the large”
• Immersive multi-sensory VR/”Holodecks”
• Ubiquitous multi physics/hyperspectral sensors
[land/sea/air/space]
Electron Threats………
• EMP - Non-Nuc,most unprotected, increasingly
ubiquitous, decreasing feature size enhances
effectiveness, HEDM drivers, Gamma/Xrays right
through “Cages”
• IO/IW - some 75+% of IT now offshore COTS [
hardware, software], cannot “trust” [ back doors
and all that]
• IO/IW - Some 45 errors per 1000 lines of code,
opportunities for “interference/takedown
• IO/IW - “Trusted Insiders”
• Jammers
• Physical Damage, Esp. Space
IMPACTS OF ONGOING IT
REVOLUTION UPON SOCIETY
• Work (at home telecommuting, reduced local/corporal travel)
• Shopping (at home web based, (robotic?) delivery)
• Entertainment/leisure (at home immersive 3-D
interactive/multi-sensory via VR/holographic projection)
• Travel (3-D/interactive/multi-sensory tele-travel)
• Education (at home low cost asynchronous, web based ondemand, highly motivational, life-long distance learning, .edu)
• Health (at home interactive tele-medicine)
• Politics (increased real-time virtual involvement of the body
politic)
• Commerce (tele-commerce already ubiquitous)
• Tele-Socialization, Tele -[onsite] Manufacturing
“It will be routine to meet in fullimmersion virtual reality for
business meetings and casual
conversations in 5 to 7 years”
Ray Kurzweil,Author,”Age of Spiritual
Machines” and “The Singularity is
Near”
Tele-Everything
• Beyond the current IT age is the Virtual Age
• Tele Everything – Work, shopping, travel, medicine, politics,
socialization, education, commerce, manufacturing, …..
• Rise of the individual “Prosumer”, Electronic, off-all-the-grids [
energy, food, water, sewage] cottages
• 5 senses virtual reality [ commercially demonstrated in the
U.K.], holographic projection
• “Virtual Worlds”, 2nd Life and all that, [Many] millions are
spending more time in virtual worlds than in the “real” world,
this before widespread superb 5 senses virtual reality, which
will make such “better than real”, and not limited to reality
“In 30 Years,The Universities of
America,as we have Traditionally
known them,will be Barren
Wastelands”
Peter Drucker
(A) FUTURE “VISION”
(the rudicio-ad-absurdium)
• “Electronic cottages” widely dispersed, “30 acres on a
mountaintop”)
• Physical access via (robotic) STOL air delivery and transportation
vehicles
• ‘Off-the-[ Energy, waste, food,water] Grid” Homes [ available
NOW]
• (Primarily) virtual/electronic (3-D, immersive, multisensory)
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Tele-commuting
Tele-shopping
Tele-commerce
Tele-entertainment
Tele-travel
Tele-medicine
Tele-education
Tele-socialization
Tele-politics
Tele - [onsite] Manufacturing
Human- Related
“Bio Revolution Products”
• Human Adaptation
– Direct Photosynthesis
– Micro g/Radiation Hardening (for Space)
– “Water-Breathing”, digestion of cellulose via symbiotic microorgsms.
• Human Amplification/”Cosmetics”
– Dogs’ Nose, Cats’ ear , Strength Enhancement
– Brain Augmentation
– Tailorable features/”colors”,”Tails”?
• Human Maintenance/SERIOUS Life Extension
– Disease Prevention
– “Parts Replacement”
– Currently,.1~.3 year/year heading to 1 year/year
“Designer Humans”………
Summary - Bio ‘Futures”
• [Serious] Human Life Extension and
human “amplification”
• ‘Pharm” animals
• “Borged up” Humans
• “Designer Life Forms”
• Bio-Mimetics, Bio-Production and
Bio-Functionalism
• Bio energy sources
Rapid Tech Changes Destabilizing
the Population[s]
• Rapid uptic in Psychosomatic illness rates
• Some 20,000 people a year killed due to Road
Rage
• Some 15% of the population is Clinically
Depressed, people “Dropping out”
• People are becoming Technology Luddites,
Grasping at “Teddy Bears” , Huge uptic in
Religiosity world wide, Al Quieda is a Luddite
Organization
• Increasing numbers of Sociopaths and
Psychopaths increasingly technically
‘Empowered” to create Destruction
Sample– Individual Destructive
Capabilities
• Bio , including against Human
regulatory/immune system, via Nano
“vectors”
• Information Operations/ IT
• EMP
• Fab Lab produced ‘Weapons” writ large
• Robotic Delivery
• Vulnerabilities determinations
• PPB/PPT Chemical Endocrine Disruption
“Rise of the Machines”
• Machine Intelligence approaching Human via
Biomimetics and perhaps emergence
• Autonomous Robotics
• Creating increasing unemployment [
manufacturing , now service, soon Intellectual]
• Humans becoming Cyborgs [ Retinas, hearts,
limbs, brain chips, …….]
• Emergence of a Global Sensor Grid and a “Global
Mind” [ Web 3.0++]
Sample Data Sources - Emerging
Global Sensor Grid
[Everything becoming a [net-worked] sensor]
• Safety/Security Sensor
Nets
• Smart buildings &
roads,other smart
Infrastructures
• “Overheads”/Sats
• Cell-phone sensors
• Mini-Cams
• Smart Appliances,
clothes,other smart
“Products” [e.g. Shoes
• Military sensor nets
• RFID/Nano Tags
• Near Space [75K-350K ft
sensors]
• Sensors on transportation
devices
• Bio sensors including in
situ/in vivo/”toilets”
• Scientific sensor nets
• Populace observations &
contributions
communicated via internet
AI (AND BEYOND) COMPUTING
Human Brain Characteristics/Capabilities
• 100 billion neurons
• 100 trillion connections
• 200 calculations/second, (slow) speed of neural circuitry
• 20 million billion calculations/second
• Excellent at (parallel-computing) pattern recognition, “poor” at
sequential thinking
• Operates via “random tries”
Machine Capabilities
• Currently, 2+ million billion calculations/second
• By 2012, 20 million billion is available (by 2025, on a PC)
Machine Intelligence
• Approaches:
– Experiential - Behavior Based/’learning” (neural
nets/other “Soft Computing” - genetic algorithms,
fuzzy logic,etc..)
– Nano-section/replicate brain in Silicon
– “Emergence”
• Should produce Artificial/Cyber “life” which will
possibly-to-probably be sentient but will not be
anthropomorphic
IBM Blue Brain Project
• 10 year project started 5 years ago to nanosection the neo-cortex and replicate it in
Silicon.
• Now , 5 years into it, director projects a
human level machine intelligence in ~ 10
years, Many project such for 20 plus years out.
• In the Runup, Machine Intelligence is
becoming VERY GOOD, e.g. enables Avatars
for on-line instruction in lieu of “Teachers”….
Human Vs. “General” Intelligence
•Human Intelligence - A result of evolution, each
constitutive element capable of/adopted
for”solution” of an Immediate Problem in the
Hunter-Gatherer Context.No overall/High Level
“Plan”, Constrained by available 200 Hz biological
Neurons.Higher Level Intelligence wholly
“Emergent”.”Humans are a non-central and nonoptimal special case of Intelligence” [ Yudkowsky]
•General [High Level] Intelligence - Not
constrained by/restricted to bit-by-bit immediate /
evolutionary problem solution accretion. Higher
Level/General Intelligence “Designed in”, Ab-initio
.Overall - an opportunity to “Do it right”.
[Un]Employment………
• We are in a “Jobless” Economic recovery,Large numbers
of jobs “missing”
• Some 1/3rd of the “missing jobs” went out of the country
[Globalization/outsourcing of WHITE COLLAR/”Service”
jobs]
• Rest of the jobs “Disappeared” due to ever-improving
Automation/”Robotics/IT.Then year very few-to-no jobs
the machines cannot do…….
• The machines create “wealth”,cost of goods on a rapid
downward spiral
The OUTLOOK -Continuing rapid erosion of high level
employment,No “Human Unique” jobs in the offing,”What
the people will do all day” a serious issue…….
“Productivity Improvements”, Impacts of
Automation, Robotization and Machine
Intelligence upon Human Employment
• Already largely Automated - Manufacturing,
Bank Tellers, Gas Station Attendants,
Telephone Operators, Software, Billing Clerks
• Next-in-line - Check Out Clerks, Pilots &
Air Controllers, Health Workers, Teachers,
Soldiers, Attorneys, Accountants, Engineers
• Beyond/Emerging - “Invention’/Creative
Activities
[Example] - Automated Invention
• Steve Thalers’ Creativity Machine AKA
Imagination Engine
• A trained neural net is deprived of all rational
input
• “Dreams”, apparently as people dream,
producing multitudinous new
combinations/”ideas”
• A “critic” neural net evaluates these ideas for
various problems/metrics
• Quite successful, good “Track Record”, many
other such………NOW
“When Industrialization first occurred
there were fears of massive
unemployment which never happened,
Why will the integration of robots into
the workforce be any different?”
“We didn’t create a second
intelligent species 150 years
ago, now we are doing that
with intelligence that will get
better and better……”
Marshall Brain, Author ‘Robotic Nation”
“In Thirty Years it is likely that virtually all
of the intellectual work that is now done
by trained human beings such as Doctors,
Lawyers, Scientists, or programmers can be
done by computers for pennies an hour.
Artificial General Intelligence is likely to
eliminate almost all of today’s decently
paying jobs.”
AGI-09, Washington D.C., ‘09
With ever more efficient technologies for
communicating and processing information, the
boundary between brain and external aids for
thinking will practically disappear, so that
computers and communication interfaces will feel as
if they are an integral part of our personality. In the
longer term, the effacing of borders between brain
and computer will likely lead to an effacing of the
border between individual, computer-supported
brains, leading to the emergence of a collective mind
or “global brain,” an integrated thinking, conscious
being with an overall world view and sense of
purpose.
Millennium 3000 Study - United Nations Univ., 2001
Humans Becoming Cyborgs
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Cochlear Implants
Artificial Retinas
Artificial Hearts
Direct brain-to-prosthetic limb communication
Brain Chips – To fix defective Brains now,
brain augmentation being worked, then year
probably cannot compete without the latest
Brain Chip Installed
“Interesting Times”…….Projected
Within Some 25 years• Increases in human life span of 1 year/year…
• Machine Intelligence approaching-to-beyond human,
Networked Global Sensor Grid/Global “Mind”
• Individual [ Bio, IO, Nano] capability to take down the species,
“Warming” [CO2, Methane, Albedo, land use]
• Machines/Robotics take-over “Employment”, produce wealth
for EVERYONE,Molecular Manufacturing
• Humans become Cyborgs far more than today [ Brain and Body]
• Revolutionary Energy Sources/Storage
[Nearly] everything goes VIRTUAL
‘Positive” Societal Effects of Emerging
Techs
• Increased Life Span
• “Solutions” to climate, water, food, land, energy
• Continued decreases in Cost of “goods” [ Robotics/
Molecular Manufacturing], solutions to wealth
disparities
• Massive on and off-board brain augmentation, a
“Global Mind”, “Gods Eye View/Knowledge”
• “Prosumer”/ Individual Independence [ Electronic
off-grid homes, tele-everything]
Worrisome-to-Existential Impacts of
Emerging Techs
• Increasing vulnerability of Brains and
“Electrons in general
• Loss of “Meaningful Employment”
• Reducing standards of living
• Destabilization of population due to rapid tech
changes, ludditism
• Massive INDIVIDUAL Destructive Power [
IO/IW, Bio,Nano,….]
An Observation…….
Nearly all of the Existential issues discussed
are Longer Term, Strategic vice tactical.
Governments and society in general are
essentially “Terminally Tactical”, only respond
to issues when there is a serious smoking gun,
not before. Much of this is the Boiling Frog
Syndrome, Not at all clear these issues will be
worked in time.
Human Evolution?
• BODY
– Wet Electrochemistry
– Plus
• Repair/Replacement
• Augmentation
– Other than Wet E/C
• MIND
– Wet Electrochemistry
– Plus
• Off Board Adjuncts
• On Board Adjuncts
– On/Off Board
“Computer”
“Who
says our
descendants have to be
made out of meat?”
Marvin Minsky,AI Lab,MIT
Over the Million plus years of Human
Evolution as the Dominant Animal on the
Planet we have had to “work” to feed
ourselves…….It now appears that we will
create/develop machines that will be
MUCH more productive than us and create
Massive Wealth, relieving us of the need to
“work”- this will be a MASSIVE “Sea
Change” in the Human Existence Theorem
“Where it is all going” – Results of
Human-Engendered Evolution
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[Much] longer lives
Merging with the machines, physically & mentally
Via machine productivity, end of have/have nots
Redefinition of Human Existence Theorem away from
“work” toward ?
• God-like Intelligence via global brain & sensor grid
• Serious Threats – Empowered Individuals, climate/
environment, electron/bio vulnerabilities,
• “Off-Grid”/ tele- everything living , “Prosumers”
• Need[s] for “Cities” go away
[Some] Post [ REAL] “Work”
possibilities
• ‘Make Work’ – Pay folks to “do things” [ Already
ongoing]
• Perpetual “vacation” [ Wherever you want to go [via
5 senses VR, not limited to “reality”]
• Personal “quests” [ for whatever interests you]
• “ Hanging out/ lurking ” in the Global Brain, Gods-Eye
view of anything/ everything
• The “Arts”………..
Then Year - not an issue of us vs.
them [ the machines], we are
rapidly merging ……………
THE MAJOR ISSUE, Possibility of
Better than human machine
intelligence, will result in “better”
than [ historical] humans [ OR
,taken another way, human
contaminated machines]
Then Again – In the late 1800’s
there was great consternation that
Manhattan Island would in 15-20
years disappear under some 20
feet of Horse Manure [ “Saved” by
the Internal Combustion Engine]
As the Russians say – “We will live
and we will see”…………