Transcript Lecture19 - University of Denver

The Human Population:
Patterns, Processes, and Problematics
Lecture #19: Ch14: Demographics
Paul Sutton
[email protected]
Department of Geography
University of Denver
Ch 14: Demographics
• The material covered in Chapters 1-13 can
actually be put to practical use.
• People make a living as “Demographers”
– Political Planning
– Social Planning
– Business Planning
Defining Demography
• Demography is a small but significant
academic discipline dedicated to
discovering new information about
population patterns and processes
• Demographics or ‘Applied Demography’ is
the process of using existing theory,
knowledge, and data to solve real world
problems.
Uses of Demographics
• Central to the U.S. Political Process
–
–
–
–
–
Census for apportionment & redistricting
Allocation of tax dollars
Social security
Fiscal impacts of immigration
Campaign strategy
• Social Planning
–
–
–
–
School districting
Crime mapping/resource allocation
Day care provision
Hospital locating
• Business Planning
– Marketing
– Site selection
– Labor pool analysis
GIS and Demography
• Data is much
easier to
handle and
visualize.
Dramatic
changes taking
place in
demography as
a result of GIS
Marketing to Hispanics in San Diego
Congressional
Reapportionment & Redistricting
• State Pop Counts due to president on December
31st of year of census
• 435 congressional seats to allocate to the states
• Each State gets at least one house representative.
Then use ‘Method of Equal Proportions’
• In 2000 32 of 50 states neither lost nor gained
seats
• If # of seats change for a state then redistricting
occurs.
Figure 14.3 What’s wrong with this picture?
Gerrymandering Image (steal)
Steal 2000 Election Slide from
GIS lecture here.
Campaign Strategy
• “The demography of the voting age population
within a political district is a crucial ingredient in
winning an election because demographic
characteristics such as age, sex, race, likelihood of
voting , and to some extent political preferences.”
• Candidates are “packaged and sold” just like
consumer products based on demographics.
• Demographics is the key element to understanding
the electoral process and likelihood of winning an
election.
Legislative Analysis
• “Demographic change bears directly on the formulation
of social policy because it determines in a large part
whose income or wealth is redistributed to who.”
• Baby boomers in 1970’s caused inflation
• Govt. Policies tried to create more jobs for swelling labor
force
• The baby boom retiring…
– That’s why 401K’s were created and allowed
– That’s why Social Security is such a big deal
– That a reason we have lax immigration policy
Social Planning: Education
•
•
•
•
Declining enrollment
Increasing enrollment
Shifting enrollment
Do you close some schools and open new ones
elsewhere? If so, what do you do with the
closed schools?
– College enrollments
– Baby boomlets
– Aging neighborhoods
Social Planning: Health Services
• Illegal Immigration and Emergency rooms
in Private Hospitals. (Regionally serious
problem)
• Aging Population and changes to health
care services.
• Private – Public Disconnect a big problem
Social Planning: Criminal Justics
Social Planning: Transportation
Business Planning
• “When it comes to understanding today’s consumer maketplace, just about
the only thing that’s certain is that uncertainty reigns. The speed of
technological change, the volatile global economy, the emergence of mediasavvy, ever-more-demanding customers – all have coalesced into the blur
that characterizes business-as-usual at the end of the century. “Grappling
with uncertainty in business planning requires more than guesswork”, warns
business guru Peter Drucker. “It requires looking at what has already
happened that will create the future. The first place to look,” says Drucker, “is
in demographics”
•
•
•
•
•
Marketing Demographics
Cluster Marketing
Site Selection (location, location, location)
Investment Demographics
Human Resource Demographics
Marketing Demographics and
Segmentation
• “Demographics are used to segment and target the market for a
product, and this approach has become so populatr that it has
eve been suggested that a television program’s demographic base
now determines its commercial success “far more than sheer
audience numbers” Segmentation refers to the manufacturing
and packaging of products or the provision of services that
appeal to specific socio-demographically identifiable groups
within the population. “consumer markets are segmented on the
basis of such demographic variables as geographic location, rate
or product usage, income, age, sex, education, stage in the
family life cycle, religion, race and social class. Industrial
markets are segmented demographically according to such
variables as geographic location, kind of business, rate of
product usage, and size of user. Automobile manufacturers are
most famous for segmenting the market and producing different
cars to appeal to different categories of people.”
The Ford Mustang
(“a demographic product”)
• “Our market research showed that the youthful image of the new decade had
afirm basis in demographic reality. Millions of teenagers, born in the postwar
baby boom, were about to9 surge into the national marketplace. Here was a
market in search of a car. Any car that would appeal to these young
customers had to have three main features: great styling, strong perfomance,
and a low price.” Lee Iacoca
What can you learn from this figure?
Demographics and TV
• What commercials would you expect to see on:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Sesame Street?
NFL Football games?
Friends?
Oprah?
McNeil-Lehrer News Hour
Sponge Bob Square Pants (this might surprise you)
Marketing and the Age Structure
• “People at different ages have different
needs and tastes for products and differing
amounts of money to spend” (duh…?)
• Baby Stuff Sellers
– How many babies born in a give year?
– Birth Order
– Where are the grandparents?
Religious Planning