Transcript Document

The Transcension Hypothesis:
Cosmic Censorship of Advanced Civilizations
Royal Society Satellite Meeting
October 2010  Buckinghamshire, UK
John Smart, President
Acceleration Studies Foundation
accelerating.org/slides.html | [email protected]
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
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We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes
our universe contains both:
1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (many of which will fail) and
2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
aspects of our long-range future and
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Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Cartoon
Post-Darwinian Model: Evol. Devel. (Evo Devo)
“Natural Selection”
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Main Actor: Organism
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
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“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Variation, Emergence,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
Heritability, Life Cycle, Replic.,
STEM Compression, Self-Org.,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolutionary
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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Compu (EvoDevo)
New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
(Intersection)
Development
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
Evo Devo Universe?, J. Smart, In: Cosmos & Culture, Steve Dick (ed.), 2009
An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins
and Parametrically Identical Universes
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• In genetically identical twins, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain wiring,
learned ideas, behaviors, all the local, microscopic processes are
unpredictably (evolutionarily) unique in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet many
global, macroscopic processes are predictably the same.
• Would parametrically identical universes also be evolutionarily unique
yet developmentally the same? Are our universe’s (proposed) many
intelligent civilizations also evolutionarily unique yet developmentally
identical? Key questions for cosmology, astrobiology, simulation science.
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The Hypothesis: (Predictable and conservative) development is always
different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary
processes. Both seem fundamental to universal complexity.
Evo Devo in Observ., Emergence & Control:
The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb
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The vast majority (we may roughly propose 95%) of the
information and computation to describe and model emergence
of a new complex adaptive system (CAS), or control in a mature
CAS involves bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes. A minor
yet critical contribution (again, let us roughly propose 5%) comes
from top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes.
Ex: No. of genes used (and highly conserved) in developmental
toolkit in any species (eg., Dictyostelium, 2-3%), vs. the much
larger number of ‘evolutionary’ genes much more frequently
modified and which affect phenotype variation, not development.
The 95/5% Rule may explain why discovery of universal
development been difficult not in physics and chemistry (e.g.,
mechanics, relativity, particle physics), and in developmental bio,
but in macrobiological change, in society, and technology.
In these latter substrates, which are not yet ergodic, the life-cycle
of the (‘5%’) nonrandom devel. signal is much longer and only
partly observable vs. the (‘95%’) near-random evolutionary signal.
Evo Compu Devo (ECD) Examples:
Experimentation + Selection + Convergent Unification
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‘Quantum Darwinism’ in the transition from quantum to classical
(relativity, thermo, classical mechanics) physics (Blume-Kohout
and Zurek 2005)
Transition from chaotic/unpredictable to
probabilistic/predictable physical regimes
Invariant vs. unpredictable emergences
in cellular automata (Wolfram)
Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg)
Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006)
EvoDevoUniverse.com
Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008)
‘Neural Darwinism’ in development (Edelman 1989)
Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985)
Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998)
Cultural, ‘memetic’ selection (Dawkins, Aunger)
Technological ‘technetic’ selection (Kelly, Blackmore)
Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza, Sipper)
Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992)
Free Energy (Phi, Φ) of Dissipative Structures
Traces out a Universal Hyperbolic Curve
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Energy Flow Density (Φ)
Substrate
(ergs/sec/gm)
Global AI of the 21st C
Pentium II of the 1990's
Intel 8080 of the 1970's
Modern Engines
Culture (human)
Brains (human)
Animals (hum. body)
Ecosystems
Planets (Early)
Stars
Galaxies
10^12+
(10^11)
10^10
10^5 to 10^8
500,000 (10^5)
150,000 (10^5)
20,000 (10^4)
900
75
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0.5
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Eric Chaisson,
Palo Alto
Cosmic Evolution, 2001
Free energy flow density values in
hierarchically emergent CAS.
The J Curve and the
“Tech Singularity”
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First-Order Components
are Growth-Limited Hierarchical
Substrates (S and B Curves)
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Second-Order
Hyperbolic Growth
Emergence Singularities
and a Limit Singularity
Examples:
▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar
▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity)
▪ Global Economic Performance
▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics
▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation
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Black Holes as Evolutionary Developmental Systems
Engaged in ‘Cosmological Natural Selection’
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Black Holes as ‘Seeds’ for New U. Production.
 At least 8 of the 20+ fundamental parameters
of our standard model of particle physics
(potential initial conditions of our universe)
appear fine tuned for:
- fecund black hole production
- universes with multi-billion year lifespans,
capable of creating life.
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Start with: Lee Smolin, The Life of the Cosmos, 1997
More speculative: James Gardner, Biocosm, 2003
CNS is Testable By Simulation
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‘Baby universes’ exploring
universal phenospace on a
phylogenetic tree, with a low
branching rate and frequent
terminal branching in this cartoon
(Adapted from Linde 1994).
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Systematics diagram. Living organisms exploring a
phylogenetic tree in evo-devo biology
Just as we see developmental (conserved, critical, internally
selected) and evolutionary (varied, externally selected) genes in
biological phenospace, we must find both developmental (fine
tuned) and evolutionary (variable) fundamental parameters in our
own universe’s particular set of initial conditions.
Per Smolin (1996) and Vaas (1998) this prediction is already (and
increasingly) testable by simulation.
Black Hole Transition:
Optimal Computational and Forward Time Travel Devices
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Computation:
 Black holes are the most efficient computational systems
known in physics. tflip = tcomm on the event horizon (Seth
Lloyd, Ultimate physical limits to computation, Nature, 2000.
Forward Time Travel:
 Black hole time dilation allows instantaneous forward time travel.
Inside a black hole, external clocks move arbitrarily fast.
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Benefits:
Instantaneous observation of: the remainder of local universal change.
Instantaneous travel to: all the places possible under dark energy.
Black Hole Mergers: Our Long Term Universal Future
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Passive or active black hole merger scenario.
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From the black hole’s time perspective, such mergers will occur
virtually instantaneously, in no subjective time. This is because
black holes, and only black holes, are a ‘one-way time travel device.’
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On the universal scale, complexity is now self-fractionating into local
‘informational islands’ (supergalaxies). Our supergalaxy will include only
the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies (Nagamine and Loeb 2003)
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Each of these supergalaxies contains evolutionarily uniqueness, and
may be expected to engage in natural selection upon merger.
Transcension Hypothesis:
The Inner Space Answer to the Fermi Paradox
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Our Milky Way Galaxy is just
45,000 light-years in radius. Earth-like
planets are 1-2 Billion years older
than us, closer to the core in the GHZ.
Even Andromeda Galaxy is
only 2 mill. light yrs away.
So where are the ET’s? A few primitive civs are in
Normal Space, all advanced ones are in Inner Space.
“Leakage signals” and mini-beacons are sent over
a very short (200-300 yr?) span prior to transcension.
They have no desire to communicate once they
recognize one-way communication is either not
useful or will reduce their evolutionary diversity.
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A Prediction: Leakage signals (10-10,000), and their annual cessation
(r = 1/lifespan), will both be detected by future SETI. Major beacons
simply won’t be found (except in developmental failure galaxies)
the Fermi Paradox: Mechanisms of Universal Transcension, JE&T, J. Smart, 2002
Testing the Transcension Hypothesis
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1. Study Tech Performance Curves.
Benefit: Better technology foresight & R&D.
PCDB at SFI
2. Study Acceleration and Complexity Transitions in Cosmology,
and Black Holes. Benefit: A developmental physics?
3. Study Immune Systems and Info Theory in Biology to Improve
our Models of One-Way (developmental/control?) vs. Two-Way
(evolutionary/ complexity construction?) Communications.
Benefit: Better Models of Symbiosis, Morality, Resiliency.
4. Search for Very Low Power, Unintentional Leakage Signals of
Very Limited Lifespan. Benefit: Empirical confirmation of the
transcension hypothesis, even before the theory arrives.
Developmentalists are like Giordano Bruno in 1600,
talking of heliocentrism, an infinity of suns like ours,
and ETI, before much of the science existed.
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Let’s not get burned at the stake, or ignored
but instead… seriously critiqued.
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Discussion
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Toward a Theory of Universal Development:
1. Physical ‘Inner Space’
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Science Now Talks About:
 Galactic Development
 Stellar Development
 Planetary Development
 Biosphere Development
Is There a Computational
Advantage (Selective
 Organismic Development
Pressure, Dev. Constraint)
 Socioeconomic Development
Pulling Complexity into
Physical Inner Space?
 Technological Development
It seems so.
We are Still Reluctant to Talk About
 Macrobiological Development (Simon Conway-Morris)
 Macromoral/Cultural Development (Ron Inglehart)
 Universal Development (John Stewart, John Smart)
Modeling Development Is Hard, But Very, Very Important. These
are the processes that constrain us. There aren’t many of them.
Toward a Theory of Universal Development:
2. Virtual ‘Inner Space’
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Real structures in “outer space” (the physical world) are being modeled
rapidly better and faster in inner, virtual space (first human brains, then the
digital world). By comparison to inner space, outer space is:
• Computationally much simpler and more tractable (transparent)
• A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
• A much older, “rear view mirror” on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence
• Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
vs.
~200 Bill. Unique Solar Systems
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vs.
~100 Trill. Unique Connections
Many More Unique Sims
of Scientific Simulations: From A-Life to Artificial Cosmogenesis, C. Vidal, 2008
Present Score:
13 for Transcension, 2 for Expansion
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The Case For Transcension
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1. Universal Speed Limit (c), and Isolation of Everything Interesting
2. Hierarchy Emergence Exhibits Singularities (Phase Transitions)
3. Relentless STEM Compression of Hierarchy Emergence
4. Age of Simulations (Networks, Inner Space)
5. Technological Singularity Hypothesis
6. “Plenty of Room at the Bottom” (Richard Feynman about Nanotech)
7. Bottom is Strange (Quantum Weirdness) and Computational
8. Hyperspace (String, M, Supersymmetry or some such theory, 10,11,26D
9. Multiverse Theories with very early simulation testability (CNS, CNS-I)
10. Fermi Paradox Explanation (Constrained Developmental Transcension
11. Lambda Universe Explanation (The Kerrigan Problem. "Why Now?")
12. A Non-Anthropomorphic Future
13. Midpoint Evidence (weak but potentially useful)
The (Highly Suspect) Case for Expansion
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1. 3D Space was the Cradle and is the Playground for Biological Life
2. Expansion is a Comfortable Extrapolation of our Frontier Experience
© 2008 Accelerating.org
Accelerating Change is Broadly Ignored By the
Scientific Community, Except for Tech Learning Curves
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Learning/Experience/Performance Curves (Moore’s Law, etc.) show
accelerating exponential or power-law increases in capacity or
efficiency over time. We’ve known about them since the 1930’s.
Santa Fe Inst has started the first online open PCDB
(2008, PCDB.SantaFe.edu). Such data
sets are critically important to understanding
accelerating tech change and convergence.
The SFI PCDB has almost no funding however.
Feel free to donate!
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I think accelerating change has been ignored for so long because:
- It looks too much like “progress,” a forbidden word in science, as
we have no “universal” theory of values or complexity yet.
- It looks suspiciously like (smooth, hierarchical, predictable)
complexity development, when the only dynamic that complexity
scientists are presently willing to discuss is (noisy, branching,
unpredictable) complexity evolution.
- A few do see parts of development (e.g., Salthe, 2nd law of thermo
(hierarchical decay), or Chaisson’s free energy work (hierarchical
acceleration). But we all know such people are crazy.
What Comes After the Tech Singularity?
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Future evolutionary details are contingent and intrinsically
unknowable.
But if you have a theory of development, the developmental
futures are not opaque:
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Massive Computational Acceleration, Physical Control, & Simulation
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Biohumans vs. Postbio. Intelligence become like Plants vs. Humans.
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Local Intelligences Head Further into Virtual & Physical Inner Space.
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Massive Increases in Robustness of our Complexity.
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Superexponential Growth in Local Intelligence, to the Asymptote
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Objective End (in just hundreds or thousands of Years) of Local Time
•
Subjective Eons of Local (Hyperaccelerated) Time Ahead
Gravity, STEM Compression, and Complexity:
All Appear to Be Developmental Processes
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• Gravity is the altering of space-time structure around high-mass objects,
affecting local celestial dynamics as a function of mass.
• STEM compression seems to be the altering of space-time and matterenergy process dynamics as a function of rate of complexity increase.
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• If environmental complexity increase is a developmental imperative,
then in high-complexity objects like our future Earth’s postbiological
culture, transcension-related behaviors become increasingly probable the
closer the system approaches the black hole computational attractor.
‘Search Basins’ and ‘Portal Pathways’:
Developmental Portal Pathways Must Exist
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Key Research Questions:
 Are portals/bottlenecks that lead to increasing complexity plentiful or rare?
 Are such portals/bottlenecks sequence-dependent or randomly traversible?
 Are such portals convergent, divergent, or non-vergent (as depicted here)?
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Crutchfield,
J.P. 2001. When Evolution is Revolution: Origins of Innovation. In: Crutchfield, J.P. and Schuster, P.
New
York
(eds.),
Palo Alto Evolutionary Dynamics: Exploring the Interplay of Selection, Neutrality, Accident and Function.
Portal Pathway for Complex Chemical Evo Devo –
Carbon Chemistry
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Genesis of Chemical Elements
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Carbon is the only way forward to complex (living ) chemistry. Boron and
Silicon no longer considered viable enough to form autocatalytic cycles in
liquid phase.
Note that four of six most common elements in life chemistry (CHNOPS),
and both of the great oxidizers, oxygen, and sulfur, are formed in the
small, third generation (Population I) stars like our Sun
Portal Pathway for Cells –
Lipids, RNA, & AA’s
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Lipids, RNA, & AA’s may be the only time-efficient way from o-chem to cells!
RNA, lipids/cell membranes, and protein precursors (amino acids) all form
spontaneously in Earth’s chemistry (and precursors form on meteorites).
Nucleobases (AGCT/U) form from cyanide, acetylene and water.
 Sugars form from alkali and formaldehyde
 Phosphates are released from schreibersite in meteorites (“solar
system assist”), and (a little) from (modern) volcanic vents.
 Sutherland et. al., mixing sugar and nucleobase precursors and
phosphate got 2-aminooxazole (partial sugar, partial nucleobase)
 Exposure to intense solar UV in shallow water (“solar system assist”)
destroys the incorrect forms of nucleobases, leaving behind C and U.
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RNA is today the only known heteropolymer (of ~10M species) that can
both reproduce itself and catalyze 3D (protein) construction (ribozymes)
RNA later learned to store itself more permanently as DNA (RNA World
Hypothesis), but DNA may not be the only more stable nucleic acid.
Alonzo Ricardo and Jack Szostak. Life on Earth, Scientific American, Sept 2009.
Matthew W. Powner, Beatrice Gerland & John D. Sutherland. Synthesis of activated pyrimidine
ribonucleotides in prebiotically plausible conditions, Nature V. 460 May 13, 2009.
Emergence Acceleration:
Independent Assessments (Preliminary Data)
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Ray Kurzweil, 2006