Transcript ILSNotreDame2009 - Acceleration Studies Foundation

Innovation, Learning, and Sustainability
A Framework for Thinking about the Universe, You, and
Foresight in a World of Accelerating Technological Change
Ten Years Hence
Mendoza College of Business
Jan 2009  University of Notre Dame
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit
community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring
accelerating change in:
1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society
(STBS), at
2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and
Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.
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Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) futures studies, a model of change that
proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and
trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and
2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we
may use to create unique and creative paths (many of
which will fail) on the way to these highly probable
developmental destinations.
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Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Info Devo (EID) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos
(Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) Exist in Complex Systems
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Three functional processes
(telos) can be observed in:
 Physical Systems
 Chemical Systems
 Biological Systems
 Societal Systems
 Technological Systems
 Our Universe as a System
Acceleration Quiz
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Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how
many are multinational corporations and how
many are nation states?
Acceleration Quiz
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Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in
the world, how many are multinational
corporations and how many are nation states?
76 MNC’s and 24 Nations.
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GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005
Acceleration Quiz
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Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans
would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net
worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration
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Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans
would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net
worth?
Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997,
when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30
billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks
roughly as the 60th largest country, and the
55th largest business. When MSFT went
public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million.
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NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)
Acceleration Quiz
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Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and
launch one new product every _________?
Acceleration Quiz
Acceleration
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Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and
launch one new product every _________?
Three minutes for Disney.
Twenty minutes for Sony.
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Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005
Our Topics
1. Foresight Development
2. Evolution and Development
3. The Evo Info Devo Triad
4. Our Global Goal: Sustainable Innovation
5. Accelerating Change
6. Automation and Tech Curves
7. 2020-2050 Scenarios
Foresight Development
What It Is and Why You Want It
Foresight / Futures Studies - Overview
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● Foresight, also known as futures studies (FS) is a
transdisciplinary educational program that seeks to
reliably improve one's ability to anticipate, create, and
manage change.
● It can be practiced in a variety of domains (scientific,
technological, environmental, economic, political and
societal), on a variety of levels/scales (personal,
organizational, societal, global, universal), and with a
variety of disciplines/specialties (theories and
methods).
● Anticipating, creating, and managing change in our
increasingly fast-paced, technological and globalized
world is a difficult yet worthy challenge.
Three Primary Foresight Domains:
Futures, Development, and Acceleration
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Futures Studies
– “Possible, Probable, & Preferable” change
(scenarios, trends, strategy)
 Development Studies (Developmental inevitability)
– Predictable and statistically irreversible change
(emergences, phase changes)
 Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments)
– Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback,
self-catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes
Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in
today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.
Nevertheless, there are few primary academic
programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years),
and none in DS or AS (by name at least).
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Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: Do All Cultures
Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Evolutionary Paths?
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Examples:
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Secularism (human-derived
values)
Ecumenicalism (seeing
wisdom in all faiths)
Rationality (logic+empiricism)
Self Expression
Subjective Well Being
Quality of Life
Sustainability
World Awareness
Future Orientation
Political Moderation
Interpersonal Trust
Casualness
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It may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less.
worldvaluessurvey.org
Foresight Development:
Twelve Types of Futures Thinking
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\Fu"tur*ist\, n.
One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.
Social Types
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Preconventional Futurist
Personal Futurist
Imaginative Futurist
Agenda-driven Futurist
Consensus-driven Futurist
Professional Futurist
Methodological Types
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Critical Futurist
Alternative Futurist
Predictive Futurist
Evo-devo Futurist
Validating Futurist
Epistemological Futurist
See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html
ASF’s Primary & Secondary Foresight Ed Specialties
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Primary Foresight Specialties (24)
Secondary Foresight Specialties (24)
Alternative Futures
Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis
Critical Futures and CLA
Development and Acceleration Studies
Emerging Issues/ Technology Analysis
Ethnographic Futures
Forecasting and Modeling (basic)
Foresight Frameworks and Foundations
History and Analysis of Prediction
Horizon Scanning and Competitive Intell.
Images of the Future
Personal Futures/ Foresight Development
Prediction Markets
Predictive Surveys/ Delphi
Roadmapping
Scenario Development and Backcasting
Scenario Planning
Strategic Foresight
Systems Thinking
Transhumanist/ Ethics of Emerging Tech
Trend Extrapolation and Learning Curves
Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity
Weak Signals
Wildcards
Actuarial Science and Risk Assessment
Cognitive and Positive Psychology
Collaboration, Facil., and Peace/Conflict Studies
Complexity, Evo Devo and Systems Studies
Critical and Evidence-Based Thinking
Ethics and Values Studies
Evolution Studies
Forecasting and Modeling (advanced)
Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit Studies
Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies
Integral Studies and Thinking
Investing and Finance (Long-Term)
Leadership Studies and Organizational Developmnt
Library Science, KM, and Decision Support
Long-Range and Urban Planning
Political Science and Policy Studies
Probabilistic (Statistical) Prediction
Preferential Surveys/Polls and Market Research
Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)
Science and Technology Studies
Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt.
Sociology, Demographics and Social Change
Strategic Planning
Sustainability Studies
Other Foresight-Related Specialties (45, a partial list)
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Anthropology | Architecture | Astrobiology | Biological Sciences | Bioethics | Biotechnology | Business Administration | Chemical Sciences |
Cliometrics | Computer Modeling and Simulation | Computer Science | Contemporary/Cultural Studies | Cybernetics | Decision
Analysis/Decision Theory | Defense/National Security Studies | Development | Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management | Economics and
Econometrics | Education | Engineering | Evolutionary Biology | Game Theory | Gambling Studies | Generational Studies | Geography |
History | History and Philosophy of Science and Technology | Information Science | Investing and Finance (Short-Term) | Knowledge
Management | Library Science (general) | Management | Management Science | Media and Communications | Marketing | Mathematics |
Operations Research | Philosophy | Physical Sciences | Psychology (general) | Psychographics | Statistics (general) | Technology Policy |
Tourism | Urban Studies
Primary and Secondary Specialties Classified by
Amara’s 3P’s/Evo Devo Foresight Framework
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Roy Amara's 3P's framework can be used to group specialties that explore the
Possible future (what could happen), the Preferable future (what we want) and the
Probable future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans).
This is also an Evo Devo framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible),
"Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures.
Three Primary Foresight Skills
Future Creation, Discovery, and Management
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Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or
Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards
(low-probability but high-impact events).
In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage
(“CDM”) the future.
 Creation (“Possible”)
– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies
for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation,
exploratory research and development, creative thinking,
social networking
 Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)
– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of
prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems
theory, risk analysis, marketing research
 Management (“Preferable”)
– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking,
scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging,
enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and
time management systems, positive-sum outcomes
© 2007 Accelerating.org
The Cone of Possible Futures: Cultures of Foresight Continually
Tell, Test, Sort, and Improve their ‘Stories of the Future’
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Preferable
Probable
Present
Plausible
Implausible
 The
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Possible can be usefully divided into the
Plausible and the Implausible.
 The Preferable always includes a little of both the
Implausible and the Impossible.
Impossible
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Where are the U.S. Undergraduate Courses
in Foresight Development?
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Tamkang University
27,000 undergrads
Top-ranked private
university in Taiwan
Like history and
current affairs, futures
studies (15 courses to
choose from) have
been a general
education requirement
since 1995.
Why not here?
University of Advancing Technology
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Dynamic Private University,
Innovative Programs,
Technology-Focused.
Tempe/Phoenix, AZ
1400 Students
Mission: To educate students in the fields of advancing
technology to become innovators of the future.
14 Bachelors Degrees
MS in Technology Studies
MS in Artificial Life Programming
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Evolution and Development
Two Fundamental Processes of Change
Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary
and Developmental Processes in the Universe
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Improving foresight
through better theories of
universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of
physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social
scientists, technologists, philosophers, and
complexity and systems theorists who are interested
in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and
developmental (significantly predictable) processes
in the universe and its subsystems.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evolution: A Tentative Definition
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Evolutionary processes in biology, and perhaps also in physical,
chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are
stochastic (random within constraints), creative, divergent
(variation creating), contingent, nonlinear, and unpredictable.
This intrinsic unpredictability may be our most useful
quantitative definition and discriminator of evolutionary
processes at all systems levels.
Note: Evolution is NOT natural selection, in this definition. Its
fundamental dynamic is change and variation (within
constraints). It is a creativity generator, and thus a precursor to
natural selection.
Example: Genetic drift in neutral theory (Kimura 1983; Leigh
2007).
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Development: A (Tentative) Definition
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Developmental processes in biology, and we assume also in
physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal
systems, are directional, hierarchical, constraining, convergent,
integrative, self-assembling/self-organizing, and statistically
predictable if you have the right empirical or theoretical aids.
This systemic predictability may be our most useful
quantitative definition and discriminator of developmental
processes at all systems levels.
Development also has a cyclical hierarchy: birth, growth,
maturation, reproduction, senescence, death (recycling).
Note: Development is NOT natural selection, in this definition.
It is convergent unifier, and thus a specialized outcome of
natural selection.
Examples: Differentiation, STEM compression, ergodicity,
evolutionary homoplasy, modularity, hierarchy, self-similarity,
scale invariance, self-org., stigmergy, niche construction, etc.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Universe hypothesis
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Evo-devo biology seeks to resolve the differences between
evolutionary and developmental processes spanning the scales
of cells, organisms and ecologies (Carroll 2005, many others).
Recalling Teilhard’s (1955) evocative phrase, ‘cosmic
embryogenesis,’ if the Big Bang acts like a seed, and the
expanding universe like an embryo, it must use both stochastic,
contingent, and local/micro ‘adaptational’ processes—what we
are calling evolution—in its elaboration of form and function, just
as we see at the molecular scale in any embryo.
Embryos also transition through a set of statistically predictable,
convergent, and global/macro differentiation milestones, then
reproduction, senescence, and the unavoidable termination of
somatic (body) life—what we are calling development.
If the evo devo analogy has homology, there must be
unpredictable creativity and predictable developmental
milestones, reproduction, and ending to our universe.
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An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins
and Parametrically Identical Universes
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• In genetically identical twins, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain wiring,
learned ideas, behaviors, many local, microscopic processes are
unpredictably unique in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet many global,
macroscopic processes are predictably the same.
• Would parametrically identical universes also be mostly and locally
unique, yet with predictable global and macroscopic similarities? This is a
question for future simulation science.
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The Hypothesis: (Predictable and conservative) development is always
different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary
processes. Both seem fundamental to universal complexity.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Universe? – An Article
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We can begin to model our universe as an information processing,
evolutionary and developmental systemas an evo info devo
universe (abbrev. evo devo universe hereafter). Our framework will
try to reconcile the majority of unpredictable, evolutionary features of
universal emergence with a subset of potentially statistically
predictable and developmental universal trends, including:
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Acceleration in universal complexity (e.g. Aunger 2007), a pattern seen
over the last half—but not the first half—of the universe’s history
Increasing spatial and temporal locality of universal complexity
development
Hierarchies of increasingly matter and energy efficient and matter and
energy dense ‘substrates’ (platforms) for adaptation and computation
The apparent accelerating emergence, on Earth, of increasingly
postbiological (technological) systems of physical transformation and
computation.
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Smart,
New York John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic
Culture.
In: Cosmos and Culture, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press (est. 2009).
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Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model I
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Assumption: A universe of information (computationally complex
patterns of physical STEM as adapted structure), with evolution
and development as complementary modes of information
processing in all complex adaptive systems, including the
universe as a system.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model II
“Natural Selection”
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“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Replication, Variation,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Main Actor: Organism
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
Life Cycle, STEM Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence/Hierarchy,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Info (EvoDevo)
(Intersection)
Development
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
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Evo Info Devo (EID) Examples:
Experimentation + Selectionism + Unification
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‘Quantum Darwinism’ in the transition from quantum to classical
physics (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005)
Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg)
Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006)
Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008)
‘Neural Darwinism’ in brain development (Edelman 1989)
Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985)
Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998)
Cultural, ‘memetic’, and ‘technetic’ selection (Aunger)
Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza)
Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992)
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development in Universal Terms:
A Table and a Some Key Conjectures
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Some Key Conjectures:
Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation.
Development is intelligence/information preservation.
Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.
Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.
Evolution drives most unique local patterns.
Development drives most predictable global patterns.
Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively
use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.
The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we
can understand, value, and work with both.
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Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims.
Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics:
Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political
dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without continuous
change/creativity creates sterility, clonality,
overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability
creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally
stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Theory in Politics:
Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and
Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in
two complementary ways. That would make each integral,
fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo
mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.
Republicans are
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues
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Democrats are
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues
© 2009 Accelerating.org
The Evo Info Devo Triad
Universal Values for Complex Systems?
Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model II
“Natural Selection”
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“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Replication, Variation,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
Main Actor: Organism
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
Life Cycle, STEM Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence/Hierarchy,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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New York
Palo Alto
New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Info (EvoDevo)
(Intersection)
Development
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Evo Info Devo (EID) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos
(Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) Exist in Complex Systems
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
New York
Palo Alto
Three functional processes
(telos) can be observed in:
 Physical Systems
 Chemical Systems
 Biological Systems
 Societal Systems
 Technological Systems
 Our Universe as a System
Using the EID model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either:
1. Info Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit),
2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or
3. Evo, Info and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit).
Innovation, Learning and Sustainability:
They Are Not Phases, But Lifestyles.
Systemic Imbalances in Western Society
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We think Creativity is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. We
emphasize it only in the first five years of life, and don’t
try to develop it systematically during this phase or
much after. Exceptions: Montessori, Waldorf.
We think Learning is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts
in “school” and ends when we “graduate.”
Nevertheless, we get no training for innovation and
sustainability behaviors to come. Exceptions: Continuing
ed, personality assessments, lifelong learning
communities, policies, metrics, and tests.
We think Sustainability is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It
starts when we graduate and get a job. It also takes a
very narrow view of the term (org., economic and status
quo ‘sustainability’). It neglects, not only personal,
national and global sustainability, but also innovation
and learning behaviors during and after our careers.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Evo Devo Foresight:
Some Implications of the EDU Framework
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Our History, Present, and Future can be rewritten as:
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Evo, Info, and Devo Teleology. Innovation, learning,
and sustainability goals, drives, and values constrain
humans and our tech, and will constrain AIs to come.
Sustainable Innovation. Devo and evo polarized
countries, parties, and people exist. We need both.
Seed, Org, Envir (SOE) Intelligence Partitioning.
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Evolutionary choices (Evo, 95%), developmental forces
(Devo, 5%) and the Learning/Simulation increase (Info,
100%) from their interaction
Biological immortality is a major, mistaken fantasy
We need a new theory of identity/intelligence
Evo Devo Foresight:
Some Implications of the Framework - II
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Hierarchy and Acceleration.
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STEM Compression will continue on Earth
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Human cities will only get more STEM efficient/dense
STEM dense tech (nanotech) will continue to deliver
unreasonable returns
Inner Space increasingly encompasses Outer Space
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We are in a purposeful, accelerative, emergent process.
Humans aren’t the end of the line. We will ‘pass the baton.’
Increasing importance of the human mind and heart
(education, beliefs, philosophy) in culture, politics, economics
Increasing growth in the value and capacity of the virtual,
increasing virtual-physical and human-machine interface
Importance of ‘gardening’ our technological extensions
(they are the next inner space), and guiding their interaction
with the current inner space (human consciousness).
Who Are You, In Relation to the Universe?
An Evo Info Devo Speculation
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A very complex and special piece of the universe,
evolved and developed by the universe,
here to create (evo), sustain (devo), and understand
(info) the universe from your own perspective,
and to form unproven beliefs (evo), tentative
philosophy (info) and proven science (devo) about
those things you don’t understand.
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Our Global Goal: Sustainable Innovation
A Universal Value Set?
The Costs of Accelerating Social Innovation:
The Rise and Fall of Complex Societies
Acceleration
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Mesopotamia, “Cradle of Civilization” (Modern
Iraq: Assyrians, Babylonians, Sumerians)
6000 BC – 500 BC. Mineral salts from
repeated irrigation, no crop rotation decimated
farming by 2300 BC). Fertile no more.
Rise and Fall: Nabatea
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Petra (Nabateans), 400 BC – 400 CE (Jordan:
trading experts, progressively wood-depleted
overirrigated, and overgrazed (hyrax burrows)
Rock Hyrax
(burrows are
vegetation
time capsules)
Jared Diamond, The Third Chimpanzee, 1994
Rise and Fall: Anasazi
Acceleration
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde (Anasazi), 800 – 1200
CE (New Mexico, Colorado: trading, ceremonial, and
industry hubs, wood depleted (100,000 timbers used in
CC pueblos!), soil depleted (Chaco and Mesa Verde).
No crop rotation. Unsupportable pop. for the agrotech.
Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, NM
Cliff Palace, Mesa Verde, CO
Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion
(Phase I: Near East-to-West)
Acceleration
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Hellennistic (Alexander)
Egyptian (New Kingdom)
Babylonian
Spanish
Austria
Germany
British
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Roman
French
Empire Developmental Progression:
(Phase II: America to Asia)
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Japan
(Temporary: Pop density,
Few youth, no resources.
East Asian Tigers
(Taiwan
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore)
American
India
China
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Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist”
transition. Population control, plentiful resources,
stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital.
U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year.
Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year.
Science is a strongly positive-sum game.
BHR-1, 2002
China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier
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Annual average GDP growth of 9.5%
(Some urban areas up to 20%!)
Largest global producer of toys,
clothing, consumer electronics.
Moving into cars, computers,
biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc.
1.5 billion hard workers “greatest
natural resource on the planet.”
High savings, factory wages start at
40 cents/hour
45,000 Taiwanese Contract
Factories in China
20,000 European Contract Factories
15,000 U.S. Contract Factories
World Population, 10,000 BC to 2000 AD:
Birth and Growth
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Positive
feedback loop:
Agriculture,
Colonial Expansion,
Economics,
Scientific Method,
Industrialization,
Politics,
Education,
Healthcare,
Information
Technologies, etc.
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World Population, 1950-2050:
Maturing and Saturation
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Big Question: If World Pop. is Saturating, & Energy Use Saturates
with Income, Will Total Global Per Capita Energy Use Saturate?
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
In biological systems, energy flow
stabilizes when a developmental phase
is completed.
 When will the development of our
cybertwins outcompete development of
our planet’s physical infrastructure?
 When will per capita energy use
become sustainability issue globally? It
already is in sentinel countries like
Switzerland (2,000-Watt Society).
(Ausubel, J.H. et. al. (1988) Carbon dioxide
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emissions in a methane economy. Climatic
Change 12:245-263)
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Climate Sustainability and “Renewistan”:
A Collossal Undertaking
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Avg global citizen uses 2,000 watts. Europeans 6,000 watts. Americans 12,000 watts.
Preindustrialization Atmospheric CO2: 296 ppm. Today: 385 ppm.
Global TPES 16 tera(trillion)watts. 85% of this is fossil fuels, 15% renewables.
What would limit increase to 450 ppm (and est. 2 °C temp increase?)
To stop us at 450 ppm we’d have to reduce fossil fuel use to 3 terawatts by 2035. We
presently get 0.5 tw from hydro, 1 from nuclear.
Renewable Energy “Wedge Strategy” Commitments If No Other Strategies:

2 tw from photovoltaic: “100 square meters of 15-percent-efficient solar cells
installed every second (30,000 sq. miles/yr x 25 yrs).”
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2 tw from solar thermal: “50 square meters of 30-percent-efficient systems installed
every second (600 sq. miles/yr x 25 yrs).”
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2 tw from wind: “One 300-foot-diameter wind turbine every five minutes
(105,000 turbines/yr x 25 yrs).”
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2 tw from geothermal: “Three 100-megawatt steam turbines every day
(1,095 turbines/year x 25 yrs).”
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3 tw from nuclear: “A three-reactor, 3-gigawatt plant every week
(52 plants a year x 25).”
The land area needed for all these renewables (“Renewistan”) would occupy an area
the size of Australia and involve multi-trillion dollar global commitments.
Brand, S. (2009) Saul Griffith, “Climate Change Recalculated,” Long Now Blog.
Morrow, K.J. (2008) Switzerland and the 2,000-Watt Society, Sustainability 1(1):32-33.
Socolow Wedges and Climate Mitigation:
Fortunately a Range of Other Strategies Also Exist
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Los Angeles
Pacala
New
York S and Socolow R (2004) Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate
Next
Palo Alto50 Years with Current Technologies, Science 305(5686):968-972.
Problem for the
Global Energy Consumption per Capita
Saturation (Energy Intensity)
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
When per capita GDP reaches:
• $3,000 – energy demand explodes as
industrialization and mobility take
off,
• $10,000 – demand slows as the main
spurt of industrialization is
completed,
• $15,000 – demand grows more slowly
than income as services dominate
economic growth and basic
household energy needs are met,
• $25,000 – economic growth requires
little additional energy.
Later developers, using
“leapfrogging technologies”,
require far less time and energy
to reach equivalent GDP.[1]
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Alternative measure: In recent decades, global energy consumption has
been growing increasingly slower than GDP (1%  1.5%  ??).[2]
1. Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001;
2. Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes and Hillebrand, 2006, p. 29.
Saturation Example:
Total World Energy Use
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the
1970’s. Real and projected total consumption is progressively flatter since.
Saturation factors:
1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973)
2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new
generation of technological system
3. Saturation of human population and
human needs for tech transformation
Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use
declines dramatically proportional to
per capita GDP in all cultures.
Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg.
the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand
for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of
energy demand.
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Expect such STEM efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied
dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energyeffective in ways very few of us currently understand.
Tech Development:
Finding and Funding the Bottlenecks
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Li-Ion Nanobattery
80% recharge in 60 seconds
80X faster recharge (hi amp).
Duty to 2,500 vs 500 cycles
5X increase in duty length
Better at temp extremes
Cost competitive
Toshiba (2005)
A123/De Walt (2008)
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What Might This Enable?
New consumer wearable
and mobile electronics
 Military apps (FCS)
 Plug-in hybrids at home and
filling stations (“90% of an
electric vehicle economy”)
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“The future’s already here. It’s just not
evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson
Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen.,
Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption,
is the fastest growing and most efficient component.
Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds,
keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.
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180+ mpg Prius.
34 miles on battery only.
Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging almost as fast as gas
tank filling. Tomorrow's capacitance-enhanced power grids have the
ability to be even more decentralized than today's gasoline stations.
Such decentralization will support even greater city densities.
“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006
Innovation, Patents, and Policy
in Large vs. Small Companies
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no
incentive to implement unless:
a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patents
b. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failing
c. Existing product lines are presently being threatened
d. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence)
Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no
incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the
same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower
CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim.
Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote
premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs.
effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids).
Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid
until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers,
or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait”
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Some Solutions:
Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrations
Lower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industry
Mandate tough and increasing performance standards
Litigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies.
Promote consumer information and informed buying decisions
Promote buying consortiums based on performance specs
Promote corporate transparency
Promote public stock ownership
Toyota’s 1/X
Concept Car (2007)
1/3 the weight
2X the fuel efficiency
of the Prius
IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator:
Lessons of Bose (2000) and Microvision (2003)
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Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy
(often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).
Great U-Turn:
Re-emergence of Class Society in the U.S.
Acceleration
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Wage and salary earnings reflect shared prosperity through 1972.
Between then and now we have seen a growing inequality.
Percent
Change in
Earnings
Since 1961
Tabulations of annual
March Current
Population
Survey Data, by David
Ellwood, Harvard
University.
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Trend: Avg US literacy scores projected to decline
between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality.
Acceleration
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In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 Literacy
By 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category
A Flatter Curve Means
More Inequality
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Less Proficient
America’s Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007
More Proficient
Big Companies are Necessary But Counterinnovative,
So Fund Small and Mid-Size Companies Wherever Possible
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Central Paradoxes of an Evo Devo Planet:
Sustainable Innovation and Creative Destruction
Acceleration
Studies
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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S-Curves and Creative Destruction
Acceleration
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New Old Europe (Network 1.0) Spain’s Recent Creation of TwoTier Workforce. “McJobs” Under
Newly Creatively Destructive
40). (20  5% Unemployment)
Ireland, New E.U. (10 on flat tax)
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New Asia (Network 1.0)
Very High CD Index
Taiwan, Hong Kong, China,
Korea, Singapore, Malaysia,
India, Vietnam, etc.
United States (Network 0.8)
50% CD Index
50% of top 25 companies no
longer top after 25 years.
We are IT-challenged vs. Asia
Japan (Network 1.0)
Old Europe (Mfg 3.0)
Low/Very Low CD Index
Germany (13% unemployment)
Italy (11% unemployment)
France (10% unemployment)
“Green Flyer” Sustainable Mobility Innovation
Super Shuttle + Comfort Cab + Amenities
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
Marketing
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“The door-to-door airline alternative.”
“Your inner and inter-city shuttle bus. For trips 8 hours or less.”
“Free Wi-Fi, Movies, and First Class Sleeper/Work Seats.”
“1/3 the cost, 5X better passenger MPG. Handle your own luggage gently.”
“No ripoffs for last minute bookings. No cellphone/laptop bans. No TSA!”
Details
Dodge (Mercedes) Sprinter conversions (like UPS conversion above).
 Super Shuttle automation (GPS and computerized routing systems).
 210 passenger mpg (avg. 140 for buses, 40 for planes, 35 for solo cars).
 Five doors/side, nine passengers, each in visually separable compartments
 Four point harnesses (so you can sleep in a reclining position).
 Air shocks, seat shocks, and seat springs (3 layers of vibration insulation)
 Luggage stored directly above you, viewable through roof and lockable.
 Natural gas (60% of CO2, 80 cents less / gal. equiv).
 Proofs of Concept: Megabus, CA Shuttle Bus.
Deserves Federal Leadership (Subsidies, Initial Marketing)
Tens of billions in annual consumer savings, efficiencies.
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Analyzing Change: Look at Both Explicit Sectors
and their Implicit ILS Capacities
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‘Implicit’ (Capacity-Based, Cognitive) Systems
Infrastructure
& Knowledge
(Technical & Social
I & L Capacity)
(Science &)
Technology
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Power & Wealth
Structures
(Political & Economic
I & L Capacity)
Economy
Aspirational
Values & Needs
Actual
Values & Needs
Governance
Demographics
(Laws,Goals,Norms)
(Culture,Behavior)
‘Explicit’ (Tech, Econ, Politics, Society) Systems
John Stutz, Tellus Institute, 2008
© 2009 Accelerating.org
Innovations and Learning that May Take Us to the
Next Level of Sustainability
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
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Science, Technology, Engrg, & Math (STEM)
 A national report card on “Technical Productivity” growth. Far more important
than GDP growth. We are “taxing the machines” (Faraday) far more than each other.
Our annual National and Global growth in real technical wealth is far more
important than growth in abstract economic wealth. Money is fiat, fickle and a proxy.
Technical productivity/ intelligence is concrete. It is our primary survival variable.
Economy
 Dethrone Wall Street. 70-80% of our economy is private business, which need not
be short-term and growth-at-all-costs oriented, (public companies). Democratize/
improve access to private equity markets, social responsibility investing. 50% corp.
tax reduction for US manufacturing. Require use of Other People’s Money by public
corps to include invest. by corp. mgmt (skin-in-the-game). More corp. transparency.
Governance
 Accelaware govt leadership. Tie global development to zero (intrinsic) population
growth and tech productivity growth metrics. Revisit the constitution once a
generation (Jefferson). More representative democracy (no electoral college, more
parliamentary model). Politicians must fundraise 80% from (represent) their own
districts, no prior campaign war chests, two-term limits.
Demographics
 Immigrate! Three million / yr x 40 yrs. US pop. 400-500M in 2050. End the “lazy
politician’s immigration system” currently in effect. Close the border, give easy
asylum path for current illegal immigrants. Expand and clarify immigrant classes
(guest worker, resident alien, citizen). Make 50% meritocratic. Allow many formal
paths to citizenship (standard, PhD, business creation, political asylum, etc.). First
and second gen. immigrants make the small businesses, learn and innovate
harder. Recognize them for these natural advantages.
© 2009 Accelerating.org
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