Transcript Document

Five Questions
Speculations on the Universe, You, and Foresight
in a World of Accelerating Technological Change
Mindshare LA
July 2008  Los Angeles, CA
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Outline
1. What is Accelerating Change?
2. What is the Universe?
3. Who are You in Relation to the Universe?
4. What Aspects of Our Future Can We
Reasonably Understand Today?
5. Why Should You Engage in Foresight /
Futures Studies?
What is Accelerating Change?
Your intuitions, please!
What is Accelerating Change?
An Unexplained and Fascinating Phenomenon
Acceleration Studies:
Something Curious Is Going On
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A ‘Developmental Spiral’
An unexplained physical phenomenon.
(Don’t look for this in your current
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physics or information theory texts…)
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The Developmental Spiral
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Homo Habilis Age
Homo Sapiens Age
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age
Agricultural Age
Empires Age
Scientific Age
Industrial Age
Information Age
Symbiotic Age
Autonomy Age
Tech Singularity
2,000,000 yrs ago
100,000 yrs
40,000 yrs
7,000 yrs
2,500 yrs
380 yrs (1500-1770)
180 yrs (1770-1950)
70 yrs (1950-2020)
30 yrs (2020-2050)
10 yrs (2050-2060)
≈ 2060
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Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit
community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring
accelerating change in:
1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society
(STBS), at
2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and
Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.
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Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University
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Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
Studies
Foundation
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A 501(c)(3) Nonprofit
We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) futures studies, a model of change that
proposes the universe contains both:
1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and
trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and
2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we
may use to create unique and creative paths (many of
which will fail) on the way to these highly probable
developmental destinations.
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Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
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What is the Universe?
Your intuitions, please!
What is the Universe?
One current model:
A ‘life-like’ system, engaging in both
evolution and development.
Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo):
The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change
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“Experimentation”
Main Actor: Seed
Replication, Variation,
Chaos, Contingency,
Early Species Radiation
(Mostly Nonadapted)
Stochastic Search
Strange Attractors
“Natural Selection”
Main Actor: Organism
Life Cycle, Growth Curves,
Modularity, Responsiveness,
Plasticity, Intelligence
(Local Adaptation)
Requisite Variety
Mixed Attractors
Adaptation
Radiation
“Convergent Unification”
Main Actor: Environment
MEST Compression,
Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,
‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,
Path-Dependence/Hierarchy,
Dissipative Structures,
Positive Sumness/Synergy,
Niche Construction/Stigmergy,
Self-Organization
(Global Adaptation)
Environmental Optimization
Standard Attractors
Hierarchy
Evolution
‘Left Hand’ of Change
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New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’
Development
Evo Devo
(Intersection)
‘Right Hand’ of Change
Well-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’
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Evolution and Development in Universal Terms:
A Table and a Some Key Conjectures
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Some Key Conjectures:
Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation.
Development is intelligence/information preservation.
Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.
Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.
Evolution drives most unique local patterns.
Development drives most predictable global patterns.
Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively
use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.
The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we
can understand, value, and work with both.
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Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims.
Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.
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Evolution vs. Development:
Understand it in Life, Understand it in the Universe
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Consider two ‘genetically identical’ twins:
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Thumbprints, brain wiring, learned ideas and behaviors, many local
processes and ‘small things’ are unpredictably unique in each twin.
Yet many processes and ‘large things’ are predictably the same.
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The Lesson:
(Predictable and conservative) development is always different from
but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes.
Both are fundamental to universal complexity.
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More Questions, and a Research Community
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Are evo and devo both fundamental methods our universe
uses to create and maintain complexity?
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By analogy with two genetically-identical twins, would two
parametrically-identical universes each exhibit
unpredictable and unique evolutionary differentiation over
their lifespan, and at the same time, a broad set of
predictable and shared developmental milestones,
structure and function between them?
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 If
so, can we come to understand our universe as an
evolutionary developmental (evo devo) system?
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Evo Devo Theory in Politics:
Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political
dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability
Developmental sustainability without continuous
change/creativity creates sterility, clonality,
overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).
Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability
creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally
stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).
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Evo Devo Theory in Politics:
Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)
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Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and
Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in
two complementary ways. That would make each integral,
fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo
mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.
Republicans are
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political Issues
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues
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Democrats are
Evo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political Issues
Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues
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Who are You in Relation to the Universe?
Your intuitions, please!
Who are You in Relation to the Universe?
A very complex and special piece of the
universe, evolved and developed by the
universe to create (evo), sustain (devo), and
understand (evo devo) the universe from your
perspective, and to form beliefs about those
things you don’t yet understand.
‘Cosmic Embryogenesis’:
Complexity Development in Three Easy Steps
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Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Pierre Teihard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist
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The Phenomenon of Man, 1955
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De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological “Cephalization” of Earth
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"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven at
ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of us. With
every day that passes it
becomes a little more
impossible for us to act or
think otherwise than
collectively."
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Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition (‘Singularity’)
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What Aspects of Our Future Can We
Reasonably Understand Today?
Your intuitions, please!
What Aspects of Our Future Can We
Reasonably Understand Today?
As in Living Systems, We Can Increasingly
Understand All the Developmental Aspects
of Our Future, But the Evolutionary Aspects
are Perpetually Novel and Surprising.
Artificial Intelligence is Coming Of Age
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• AI is growing, but not yet fastest growing industry
― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002
(mostly commercial). AGR of 12%
― U.S., Asia, Europe are equally strong in AI
― Belief nets, neural nets, expert systems growing
faster than decision support, agents, evo AI
― Mostly incremental enhancement of existing apps
(online catalogs, etc.), few new platforms
• Translation, Natural Language Processing, and
Computer telephony (CT) are improving rapidly
(Google, Directory Systems, Booking Systems)
Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop soon.
• Coming: Conversational Interface (CI)
Persuasive Computing, and
Personality Capture/Valuecosm
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Robo sapiens is on the Horizon
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“Huey and Louey”
AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2
(Can get up when he falls or
when you knock him down)
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Aibo Soccer
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IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the
Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2015-2025
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Codebreaking follows
a logistic curve.
Collective NLP may
as well.
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Date
1998
2005
2012
2019
Avg. Query
1.3 words
2.6 words
5.2 words
10.4 words
Platform
Altavista
Google
GoogleHelp
GoogleBrain
Average spoken
human-to-human
query length is
11 words.
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Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent
Interface (“Digital Twin”) in 2020?
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Nonverbal and verbal language
in parallel is a much more
efficient communication
modality.
Birdwhistell: 2/3 of information in
face-to-face human conversation
is nonverbal.
“Working with Phil” in Apple’s
Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987
Ananova, 2002
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Post 2020: The Symbiotic Age
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A Coevolution between Saturating Humans
and Accelerating Technology:
A
time when computers “speak our language.”
 A time when our technologies are very
responsive to our needs and desires.
 A time when humans and machines are
intimately connected, and always improving
each other.
 A time when we will begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
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Personality Capture: A Long-Term
Development of Intelligence Amplification
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Conversational interfaces lead to personality models.
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long-term futures have been proposed.
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“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI)
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Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin)
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“I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.”
“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.”
Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be “50% her.”
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be “80% him.”
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your own conscious
perspective between your electronic and
biological components, the encapsulation
and transcendence of the biological should
feel like only growth, not death.
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We wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greg Panos (and Mother)
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Valuecosm 2040:
Our Plural-Positive Political Future
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Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s
Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s
Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s
Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s
- Recording and Publishing DT Preferences
- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us
- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions
- Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice)
- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding
Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)
- Early Examples: Social Network Media
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Problem: Unsustainable Environmental Practices
Long-Term Opportunity: Sustainability Economics
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First (and only)
platinum-certified
LEED building in AZ
in 2007: ASU’s
Biodesign Institute
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Canon’s WEEE Man
3.3 long tons of
electrojunk
(current average first
world human elec.
waste)
Shrink the man!
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Problem: Violent Conflict
Long-Term Opportunity: Reducing Global Violence
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Steven Pinker, “A History of Violence,” 2007
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Civil society: 1) replaces anarchy with order, 2) increases value
of life, 3) offers positive-sum interactions, 4) expands one’s circle
of empathy
In sixteenth-century Paris, a popular form of entertainment was
cat-burning. Such atrocities could not be popular culture today.
20th Century state war deaths of 100 million would have been 2
billion (20X) if they had the relative mortality of tribal warfare.
Homicide rates in England (typical) fell from
24 per 100,000 in the fourteenth century to
0.6 per 100,000 by the early 1960s.
Battle deaths in interstate wars have
declined from 65,000/yr in the 1950s
to 2,000/yr in 1990’s
See Human Security Brief 2006
(www.humansecuritybrief.info/)
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“A
of Violence,” Steven Pinker, The New Republic Online, 19 Mar 2007
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Problem: Low Cost, Sustainable Energy Supply
Longer-Term Opportunity: Solar Energy
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Not yet a revolutionary platform at present:
 10%-25% conversion efficiencies today. May
need 50% efficiencies for significant
“substitution” over fossil fuels.
 High yield cells are not yet cheap or very
environmentally friendly.
 Before 1990’s, it may have taken more
energy to create solar cells than they could
generate in a lifetime (neg. energy payback).
Energy paybacks on solar cells now range
from 4-10 yrs. Economic paybacks are still
3X this (15-30 years).
 We also need cheap solar energy storage
systems (nanobatteries, flywheels, etc.)
 Germany has greatest number of solar
photovoltaic (PV) cell installations today.
 Solar PV-electric likely to be cost competitive
with coal-fired power plant electric in 2020’s
 We are in the last generation of
‘geostrategic’ energy politics.
See: Photon Consulting, 2007
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Problem: Water Supply
Long-Term Opportunity: Desalination
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Water use in Israel. Agricultural and
residential efficiency innovations can
deliver the most savings.
Reverse osmosis is one of several
types of desalination technologies.
Desalinated water production gets
half as expensive per cubic meter
every six years (LA Times, 2005)
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Annual desalination output in Abu Dhabi
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Problem: Gridlock in Growing Cities
Longer-Term Opp: Underground Automated Hwy Systems
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May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport (per passenger mile, once
installed). No visual blight, reclaim surface real estate. Allows > 10X growth in
our current traffic capacity in our leading cities, lower transit times and better
safety than manual driving. Requires Intelligent and Zero-Emission Vehicle’s
(2025+) Number of tunnel boring machines are doubling every three years.
“Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario,” John Smart, 2005
© 2007 Accelerating.org
Why Should You Engage in
Foresight / Futures Studies?
Your intuitions, please!
Why Should You Engage in
Foresight / Futures Studies?
Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight Make us
Mindful, Balanced and Alive in the Present.
Foresight Can Be Developed, Like Any Other
Skill, to Help Us Understand and Differentiate
Predictable and Unpredictable Aspects of our
Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global,
and Universal Futures
Global Futures Network: For Professional
Futurists, Foresight Educators, and You!
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A public, community-edited
People, Orgs, and Resources directory
for emerging global foresight culture.
FuturesNetwork.org
GFN is your portal to the best online social networks
(Shaping Tomorrow, GFN LinkedIn, GFN Facebook),
social groups (ASF Future Salons, WTA and WFS
Chapters), organizations, listserves, conferences,
websites, periodicals, publications, etc. for those
interested in futures/foresight subjects. Join us!
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FERN: For Foresight/Futures Educators,
Students, and Advocates of Foresight Education
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Foresight Education
and Research Network
FERN (FERNweb.org) is a global community for
foresight/futures educators, students, and advocates
of foresight education. It networks foresight educators,
the ten academic programs in foresight/futures studies
(offering credentials to become a foresight educator),
MS and PhD students and alums, and helps develop
open source futures/foresight materials, courses, and
new academic programs globally.
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Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary
and Developmental Processes in the Universe
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Improving foresight
through better theories of
universal change.
EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of
physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social
scientists, technologists, philosophers, and
complexity and systems theorists who are interested
in better characterizing the relationship and difference
between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and
developmental (significantly predictable) processes
in the universe and its subsystems.
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A Closing Visual:
Collectively Piloting Spaceship Earth. Or Not.
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