Transcript Digital Living 2010

Digital Living 2010
How the living room is going digital
and the strategic forces involved
digdia (dĭj-dēa) – Digital Living opportunities empowered by digital media
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
1
Agenda
Change
The next wave has started
and it affects the entire value chain
Hot Spots
Caution
Please do not reproduce or distribute these slides without permission.
These slides may have terms and concept that are not familiar to the reader.
If you are in the S.F. Bay Area, I’d be happy to present these to your group ([email protected])
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
2
The Next Wave
Consumers are shifting their $
from the PC room into the DTV room
Mosaic
VHS
Color TV
DVD
IBM PC
PCs and related
(Printers, PDAs, etc.)
$70B  $80B
$25B  $65B
DTVs and related
(DVRs, DVDR, etc.)
WW estimates
02 06
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Digital TV, Digital Video Recorder (PVR), DVD Recorder
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Change Economics
Govt.
Ham
Mobile
60-69 Clearance
Mobile
WiFi, et al
Aircraft, Navigation, Telemetry, etc
Satl.
DAR
etc.
3GHz
Freed after DTV
TV
FM,etc
30MHz
Several non-consumer issues are pushing for change
Maritime
etc.
Over the Air Spectrum Allocation
• Spectrum = $ to Federal Budget
• One 6 MHz Analog channel = 4 SDTV channels = $
• Half of Cable’s spectrum wasted on Analog = $*
• HDTV creates new consumer demand = $
• One HDTV channel requires 6 MHz
Bottom Line: Switching to Digital Makes Money
* Ferree proposal may change the economics
Standard Digital TV, Digital Audio Radio
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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CE System Connectivity Evolution
Content Services drives change
Integrated
Content
Services
Digital
Content
Services
AV
Islands
Home
Theater
in a Box
Multiple services drive
PC-AV networked home
DTV drives point-to-point digital
cabling (content protection)
DVD Content drives HTiB with cables kits
Analog world - random boxes with random analog cables
2000
2010
Consumer Electronics, Digital TV
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Connectivity Enables New Services
These services weren’t necessarily envisioned by the infrastructure
digital cable
pay-per-view, video & TV on demand
digital video recorders
modem
broadband
movie downloads
over the air DTV
movie caching
DSL
DSL
2-way DTV
TV over DSL
ala carte TV
interactive TV
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Value Chain Changes
PC
WinTel
Comp. Mfr
MB OEM
PC Mfr
SW
Comp. Mfr
MB OEM
PC Mfr
SW
New to industry
CE
Content
DRM
WinTel
Content
DRM
Aggreg. Serv Prov
TV
New to industry
Content
PCCE
DRM
Aggreg. Serv Prov STB,DVR
WinTel
PC Mfr
HT
SW
SW
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Digital Media Drives Devices
Control of Media Format is Control of Ecosystem
VHS
DVD
DVD±R
HD Optical
Ophra’s DVD Cam
HDD
Analog
Tape
HD Recorders
DVR
Digital
Tape
Format
Wars
Tape
Fades
TV Card Slots
Film
time
Memory
Cards
Digital
Camera
Consumable
Memory Cards
Camera
Phone
Photo-Video
Cameras
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Agenda
Change
Hot Spots
Lots of problems to solve =
Lots of opportunities
Caution
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Evolving Display Engines
In “PC speak”, Display engines are in the “80486” Phase
TI – DLP
xHD3 “1080x1920”*
with “SmoothPicture”
Intel’s LCOS
trying for another “Intel Inside”
Sony SXRD (aka LCOS)
in a Front Projector
In the wings:
• SED (surface-conduction electron-emitting display)
• OLED (organic light emitting display)
• New PDP configurations
• More to come…
* It can now be mentioned that this part does
not have 1080x1920 mirrors.
Liquid Crystal on Silicon, Plasma Display Panel
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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DVD/HDD “Mediaplex”
The ordinary DVD player, STB or TiVo boxes are Passé
Panasonic AVC Server (2005)
From
Familiar
and
not so
Familiar
Players
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Sony
Panasonic
Samsung
Philips
LG
Pioneer
Toshiba
Zenith
Sci.Atlanta
Motorola
TiVo
Digeo (Moxi)
Sharp
Microsoft
HP
D-Link
Features galore
• Record shows to HDD
• Record onto DVD
• Handles HDTV
• Secure display link
• Pause live TV
• PiP, multi-tuner
• Electronic Program Guide
• Memory Card Slot
• View Personal Photos/Videos
• Link via Internet
• Send content to remote room
• Play Music, MP3, Internet Radio
Of course - price, capacity, features and availability vary
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Blu-Ray
vs.
HD-DVD
vs.
Red
Another Format War
with less chance of compromise
vs.
China
Blu-Ray:
•
•
•
Sony, Philips, Samsung… + HP & Dell
MPEG2. Up to 54 GB (dual layer)
0.1mm protection – need caddy, not backwards compatible
Samsung Blu-Ray drive
HD-DVD (aka AOD)
•
•
•
Toshiba (DVD Forum Chair), NEC, (Microsoft)
Adopted Microsoft’s WMV-HD. Up to ~35 GB (dual layer)
Conventional 0.6 mm protection layer – more easily backwards compatible
“Red”
With WMV-HD (9 M bit/sec) an HD movie can fit on a dual layer red laser DVD
“China”
Avoiding royalties again, this time with their own DVD for HD
Advanced Optical Disk, Windows Media Video – High Definition
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Getting Better Content to You
As more HD content is produced, some subtle issues emerge
Panasonic
Viera TV
1st with
OCAP
for 2-way
cable services
Microsoft – IPTV
sending TV over ADSL
Open Cable Application Platform
Disney MovieBeam
coming your way
Sony Passage
breaking the duopoly
for conditional access
FCC Powell
still pushing DTV; adding
2-way MOU, Must Carry, VoIP
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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AV Networking
it is starting to get serious attention
Panasonic
Dr. Liao demos
170 Mb/s
HomePlug AV
Toshiba
UWB demo, sending
2 HDTV streams (2 yrs away)
Ultra-Wideband wireless
Samsung
802.11a for
sending video
to screen
Digital Living Network Alliance
(formerly DHWG)
DENi seems to have faded.
HAVi was missing in action.
Digital Home Working Group, Digital Entertainment Network initiative, Home AV interoperability
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Digital Media Wars
Removing the Mystery of “What’s on my Media Card?”
1st Battle
2nd Battle
3rd Battle
Logical Formats
File Formats
Media Formats
Dumb or Dumber
Memory
Specified
File Formats
and Access Rules
Organized
Media Rules
OS Rules
Media Card
Rules
Consumer
Rules
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Agenda
Change
Hot Spots
Caution
Remember when investing in
“sticky eyeballs” was the rage?
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Convergence?
Some ask
“Which will win – TV or PC?”
New technology often enters as a hybrid
until a successful new form evolves.
Will the PC successfully
win the TV space?
Not exactly; anyway,
Wrong Question
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Gadgets are for Spies
They will go away or be absorbed
Gadgets introduce a new
function to the consumer, but
don’t hold enough value to
stand on their own.
• Sony RoomLink
• TiVo stand-alone DVR
• Microsoft TV Photo Viewer
• Philips Pronto Remote
• Line Doubler/Scaler
Useful functions get
absorbed
• Samsung/Disney MovieLink
• Digital Picture Frames
• Internet Radio Boxes
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Profit
Old business models learn some new tricks
Better Performance through Lower Cost Technology
(e.g. PCs in the good old days)
HD Displays will play this game, Mediaplexes maybe
Make services essential by
linking to content and access
(e.g. Cable, satellite and TiVo)
The emerging digital infrastructure
opens up the game to others.
Ads will have to offer value or sneak in
(e.g. BMWfilms and product placements)
We will see more interactive & market-of-one ads
Digital Media consumables create an annuity
(e.g. recordable DVDs)
Photo-Video will create a new opportunity
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Industries Not Covered
Mobility
Telematics
Telcos
Independent
Living
Gaming
Digital
Cinema
Advertising
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
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Digital Living
2010
Gary Sasaki has been in HP Labs in strategic business development, creatively looking at emerging markets
and technologies, helping to initiate and grow billion dollar businesses. Prior experiences include leading a
100+ HP R&D lab with three #1 worldwide product lines, and product marketing.
Gary is interested in helping & networking with companies that are trying to find growth opportunities in the
Digital Consumer Electronics industry by evaluating and positioning strategies, business plans, technologies,
markets and competitors; and is willing to present these slides to your group.
Suggestions or requests to have these slides presented can be sent to [email protected]
This presentation is available for free at www.digdia.com
Please do not reproduce or distribute these slides without permission.
digdia (dĭj-dēa) – Digital Living opportunities empowered by digital media
Rev 1.8 – 23.09.04
© 2004 Gary Sasaki
21