Transcript No Slide Title

Dr. Ka-fu Wong
ECON1003
Analysis of Economic Data
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 1
Briefing notes about Project A
GOALS
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Overview of project requirements
Tips on presentation
Assessment scheme
Possible topics
Demonstrate a five-minute presentation
Walk through step by step how the fiveminute presentation was prepared.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 2
Projects
40%
The project is intended to expose you to
the use of statistics in real problems of
your choice. The presentations also help
improve and test our understanding of
the subject.
It allows us to sharpen our skills in statistical
analysis, oral presentations, and written
presentations.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 3
Five-minute Presentations:
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Ka-fu Wong © 2003
These presentations will be Powerpoint
based.
Please hand in a softcopy of your
Powerpoint file, via email.
Presentation will be video-recorded so
that presenters has a chance to see their
own performance.
Your performance will be graded by your
peers and TA.
The instructor will randomly check the
grading and videos to make sure that the
grading has been fair.
In case of grade disputes, we can sit down
to view the tape together.
Project A - 4
Assessing Presentations
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Clarity: Do we understand everything the speaker said? Are at
least the main points of the presentation clear?
Content: Is the content appropriate for this assignment? Is the
level appropriate? Is the information accurate? Is the topic
interesting? Does the project have a meaningful and useful
conclusion / observation?
Analysis: Does the analysis use the appropriate statistical tools?
And use it correctly? Does the conclusion / observation follow
logically from the statistical analysis?
Organization: Is the talk effectively organized? Is it clear how
one idea or fact followed from another? Is there a clear logical
progression or structure to the talk?
Delivery: Does the speaker talk clearly and directly to the
audience? Does the speaker seem adequately confident and
familiar with the material? Are the visual aids used effectively?
Conciseness: Does the speaker express ideas concisely? Too
concisely? Does the speaker finish within the alloted time?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 5
Tips about presentations
 Must use Powerpoint for presentations.
 Do not use too many animations.
 Use colors to highlight your analysis.
 Understand the materials well.
 Try not to rely on notes: audiences have more confidence
in speakers who don't rely much on notes.
 Practise, practise, practise:
 To get a feeling about timing.
 To get rid of some nervous habits (fiddling with a button,
putting a hand in a pocket, saying “um”).
 Trian our eye contact with audience.
 Do we understand everything the speaker said? Are at
least the main points of the presentation clear?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 6
An Element of Peer Assessment
 Peer assessment helps us learn:
 On presentation: Being critical on someone
else’s presentation, peer assessment help alert
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us to good and bad practice in presentations.
It help us develop awareness of the style and
process dimensions of presentations.
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TA assessment
 Instructor will make sure that the grading has
been fair – by random inspections.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 7
Need a second chance?
 Students can choose to work on a second project if they
feel that their second project can improve a lot over their
first project.
 However, they must work on a different project.
 Their grades on project A will be based solely on the last
presentations and reports.
 Most students would not need a second chance if they
follow our tips.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 8
Project topics:
Two types of projects.
 Type A will involve simple plots of data, summary
statistics, and analysis – in the first half of the
semester.
 Type B will involve estimating the relationship
among variables and testing their significance – in
the second half of the semester.
 You are free to choose among a pool of projects
(supplied by the instructor, to be announced later).
You are encouraged to choose topics outside this
pool. However, if you have different project topics,
you must get approval from your instructor.
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Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 9
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Finance
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Randomly select a sample of stock mutual funds, and
record their total return during the preceding calendar
year. Summarize your data with a box plot and histogram,
and compare the mean and median return for the funds in
your sample to the return for the Hang Seng Index that
year. Also calculate the fractions of your sample within 1
and 2 standard deviations of the sample mean.
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Visit the library and ask the librarian (reference counter) to
help locate the electronic data series of HK stock prices.
Collect the prices of two stocks, one over 10 dollars and
one below 10 dollars. Compute their mean and standard
deviations of daily percentage change in prices. Based on
the plots and these summary statistics, which stock is more
risky? Which stock is more profitable to hold? (using
Sharpe Ratio as a measure?)
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 10
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Finance
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Collect the daily prices of Shanghai A Shares in 2002.
Compute their Sharpe Ratios. Summarize the data.
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Collect the daily prices of Shanghai B Shares in 2002.
Compute their Sharpe Ratios. Summarize the data.

Collect the daily prices of Chinese stocks that are listed
under both Shanghai A, Shanghai B. Compute their price
ratios between A and B. Summarize the data.

Collect the share price of HSBC and its derivatives
(warrants, options, etc.) over time. Compute their ratio.
Summarize the data.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 11
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On International Finance
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Find the daily exchange rate for Yen/USD from 1996 to
2002. Compute the daily absolute changes of the exchange
rate. Split the sample into two (before 1998 and after
1998). Compute their mean and standard deviations. Is
the mean absolute change in the after 1998 within two
standard deviations of the before 1998 sample?
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Visit at least 30 foreign exchange shops (including banks).
Record the buy and sell exchange rate of RMB to HK
dollars. Based on simple plots and summary statistics, are
the buy and sell spread (difference between buy and sell
price) different between bank and non-bank foreign
exchange shops.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 12
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On International Finance
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Collect the IMF debt of different IMF member countries.
Compute the mean and variance. Is Thailand within the
two standard deviations? How about South Korea and
Argentina?
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Find the recent issue of Economist and Far Eastern
Economic Review. Copy the newsstand price listed on the
cover. Convert them into US dollars according to a recent
exchange rate. Is there any difference between the prices
of the two magazines.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 13
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Public Finance
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Collect the government’s expenditure share on education
as a percentage of GDP in Hong Kong in the past twenty
years. Describe the data. Compute the mean and variance.
If there is a 10% cut in education spending, will the
expenditure share fall within the two standard deviations?

Collect the government’s expenditure share on health care
as a percentage of GDP in Hong Kong in the past twenty
years. Describe the data. Compute the mean and variance.
If there is a 10% cut in health care spending, will the
expenditure share fall within the two standard deviations?

Collect the contribution of land sales to government
revenue in Hong Kong (percentage) in the past twenty
years. Describe the data. Compute the mean and variance.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 14
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Personal Finance
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Ask at least 30 HKU students how many credit cards they
own. Summarize the data. Ask another 30 CUHK students
how many credit cards they own. Compare that with the
HKU result.

During Chinese New Year, all you have to say is “Gung Hay
Fat Choy,” for relatives a generation or more older to give
you some nice, crisp greenbacks in red envelopes called lai
see in Cantonese. Ask 50 HKU students how much lai see
they received this year. Summarize the data.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 15
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials
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Visit at least 30 shops / machines that provide instant
photos services, at least 10 near the Immigration
Department office and the China Travel Agency which
handle application for passports. Record their prices. Do
prices vary across locations? How?
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Visit at least 30 photo shops. Record the prices of 3R photo
print from films. Do prices vary across locations? How?
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Visit at least 30 shops that sell the same two models of
sport shoes. Record their prices. Compute the price ratio
between the two models. Plot the ratio against the price of
the cheaper model.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 16
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials
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Visit at least 30 bakery shops. Record the price of
“pineapple” and “chicken tail”. Also record whether they
have a policy of price reduction after certain hour.
Compute the means for the shops that has price reduction
policy and those without. Is the mean with price reduction
policy within the two standard deviations of the ones
without? (For interest: ask the shopkeepers what they do
with the unsold bread.)
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Visit at least 30 drug stores. Include at least 10 nonchained stores and at least 10 chained stores. Record the
price of one or more pain killers (e.g., Penadol). Compute
the mean for the non-chained stores. Is the mean of the
chained stores within the two standard deviations of the
non-chained? Is the mean of the non-chained stores within
the two standard deviations of the chained?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 17
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials
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Visit at least 30 small private clinics. Record the charge of
a typical visit to the doctors (say, due to a flu). Compute
the mean and standard deviations of the charges. Are the
charges of large hospitals within the two standard
deviations of the mean of the smaller private clinics?
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Visit at least 30 shops selling fresh orange juice. Record
the price of a cup of fresh orange juice. Compute the
mean and standard deviations of the prices. Are the
prices of non-fresh orange juice inside the two standard
deviation of the mean of the fresh orange juice?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 18
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials
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Browse through www.amazon.com (US Amazon) and
www.amazon.com.uk (UK Amazon) for the same 30 books.
Record their prices. Compute the mean and variance of
the prices from these two shops. Is the mean price of the
US Amazon within the two standard deviation of that of
UK Amazon. (Remember to convert to the same currency
for comparison.)
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Visit at least 30 soft drink vending machines. Record
their prices. Summarize the data. Do prices vary across
locations? How?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 19
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials
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Visit at least 30 restaurants. Record the price of a cup of
milk tea. Describe the data.
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Visit at least 30 restaurants. Record the price of a set
lunch and what’s included. Compute the means and
standard deviations for set lunches with more than three
items included and set lunches with less than three items
included. Are the mean of those with more than three
items within the two standard deviations of those with
less than three items? And vice versa?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 20
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials
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Find the daily wholesale price of fresh chicken in 2002.
Compute the means and standard deviations of chicken
for the year and for the month that contains Chinese New
Year. Are the mean of Chinese New Year month within
the two standard deviations of the year?
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Visit at least 30 shops selling vegetables from two
different districts. Include at least 10 shops from each
district. Record the price of selected vegetable. Compute
their means and standard deviations. Is the mean of the
first district within two standard deviations of the second
district? And vice versa?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 21
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials
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Go to a local store that sells CDs and record the prices of
at least 50 recent CDs. Also record the total playing time
for those CDs that display this information. Use a
histogram to summarize each of these data sets. For
those CDs that show the playing times, make a scatter
diagram with the playing time on the horizontal axis and
the price on the vertical axis.
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Choose two major grocery stores in your area, and try to
determine which has lower prices on a sample of 30
commonly purchased items.
 Two 7-eleven stores?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 22
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Price Differentials

Collect data from at least 10 private or public day care
centers on the hourly cost of day care for a 4-year-old
child who will be in day care for at least 10 hours per
week. Summarize these data in the form of a report to
parents who may want day care for their child.
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Browse through an on-line bookstore that sells English
books and an on-line bookstore (in China?) that sells a
translated (Chinese) version of the same book. Record
their prices. Compute the ratio of their prices. Summarize
the data.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 23
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On auction
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Find the auction price of flower market sites of Victoria
Park for the past two years. Compute their mean and
standard deviations. Is the mean in the second year within
two standard deviations of the first year?
 Land auction?
 License plate auction?
 Online auction of computer parts / photographic items?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 24
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Macroeconomics
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Collect the GDP per capita data of OECD countries.
Compute their mean and variance. Is China’s GDP per
capita within the two standard deviations? Is Hong Kong’s
GDP per capita within the two standard deviations?
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Collect the contribution of manufacturing sector to GDP in
Hong Kong (percentage) in the past twenty years. Describe
the data. Compute the mean and variance.
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Collect the consumer price index (All) in Hong Kong.
Compute the annual inflation rates. Summarize the data.
 Unemployment rate?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 25
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Labor Economics / Demography
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Find HK population for different age groups over time.
Compute the dependency ratio = [population under age 15
and above age 65] / [working-age population (those aged
15-64)]. Split the sample into two (first half and second
half). Compute their mean and standard deviations. Is the
mean dependency ratio in the second half within two
standard deviations of the first half sample?
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Find HK labor force participation rates by gender over time.
Compute ratio of female labor force participation rate to
that of male. Split the sample into two (first half and
second half). Compute their mean and standard deviations.
Is the mean ratio in the second half within two standard
deviations of the first half sample?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 26
Examples of Type A Project topics:
On Labor Economics / Demography
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Ask at least 30 employed person (with a full-time job) how
many hours do they work in a week on average.
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Collect the number of suicide cases in Hong Kong, by year.
Summarize the data.
 Number of injury
 Number of robbery
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 27
Examples of Type A Project topics:
Miscellaneous
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Randomly ask 50 HKU students the average amount of time
per week they spent on studying in the semester before the
survey. Summarize the data in a plot. Compute the means
and standard deviations. Ask your friends from different
local universities the same question. Are they within the
two standard deviations from the mean at HKU?
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Randomly ask 50 HKU students the amount of money spent
on the last hair cut. Compute the means and standard
deviations. Ask your friends from different local
universities the same question. Are they within the two
standard deviations from the mean at HKU?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 28
Examples of Type A Project topics:
Miscellaneous
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Find the temperature in Hong Kong over time. Summarize
these data with a histogram and calculate the fraction of
the readings that are within 1 and 2 standard deviations of
the sample mean. Split the sample into two (first half and
second half). Compute their mean and standard
deviations. Is the mean temperature in the second half
within two standard deviations of the first half sample?
What can we conclude about HK’s temperature over time?

Find the all the Mark-Six Jackpot in year 2001 and 2002
(available from on-line). Summarize the data with a plot.
Compute the mean of the Jackpot for 2001 and 2002. Are
the mean of 2002 within the two standard deviations of
2001? And vice versa?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 29
Examples of Type A Project topics:
Miscellaneous
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Randomly ask 50 HKU students and 50 CUHK students their
grade point averages in the most recent semester.
Compute their means and standard deviations. Is the
CUHK mean within the two standard deviations from the
mean at HKU?

Randomly ask 50 HKU students how much sleep they get
on the night before the survey. Compute the means and
standard deviations. Is your sleeping hours within the two
standard deviations from the mean?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 30
Examples of Type A Project topics:
Miscellaneous
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Randomly ask 50 HKU students (exclude those who live in
dorms) the amount of time spent on traveling to school by
HKU students. Compute the means and standard
deviations. Ask your friends from different local
universities the same question. Are they within the two
standard deviations from the mean at HKU?

Find the all the Mark-Six Winning numbers in year 2001
and 2002. Sum the six numbers. Compute the mean of the
sums for 2001 and 2002. Are the mean of 2002 within the
two standard deviations of 2001? And vice versa?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 31
Examples of Type A Project topics:
Miscellaneous

Find the air quality in Hong Kong over time. Summarize
these data with a histogram and calculate the fraction of
the readings that are within 1 and 2 standard deviations of
the sample mean. Split the sample into two (first half and
second half). Compute their mean and standard
deviations. Is the mean air quality in the second half
within two standard deviations of the first half sample?
What can we conclude about HK’s air quality over time?
 Rain fall in Hong Kong over time.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 32
Examples of Type A Project topics:
Miscellaneous

Find the quantity of water we buy from mainland China and
the usage of water per capita in Hong Kong over time. Split
the sample into two (first half and second half). Compute
their mean and standard deviations. Is the water usage
per capital in the second half within two standard
deviations of the first half sample? What can we conclude
about HK’s excess water supply and the associate
additional cost over time?
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 33
Frequently asked questions
Student: I do not want to do a survey. I prefer to
download data. None of the topics interests me.
What can I do?
Teacher: Try to look at the databases that are
available at our library and on the internet. A
useful guide is the Powerpoint file
datacorner.ppt. Some of the data might interest
you. You can also ask me for additional topics.
 The special collection (1/F HKU library) contains
a lot of HK statistics as well as statistics from
other countries. Flipping through those
periodicals will give you a lot of ideas.
Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 34
Briefing notes about Project A
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Ka-fu Wong © 2003
Project A - 35